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Many thanks as always Mogger for the FIG News update.

I had a read through last night, it is quite a document, however one part caught my eye on page 13. 5.2, it talks about the current decommissioning plan being inadequate, however they realise they can’t put in a whole new regime in time to meet the requirements of the Sea Lion project ( are those requirements to get FID over the line?), therefore they are suggesting an interim regime that can be updated later.

Or words to that effect. What do others think about this? It seems to me FIG are forging ahead with this and not allowing momentum to slow. IMHO.

LTT

Every day,

“Guyana’s Stabroek block—home to more than 11 billion barrels of discovered recoverable resources and one of the lowest-cost oil projects globally, with breakevens around $30 a barrel.“

I didn’t know that, but I know somewhere that’s has a lower break even cost with a greater tax regime!

Oh, and on this matter of Isreal recognising the Falklands as being part of Argentina, I thought this was a message posted on X by his son, not from the Israeli government. Also don’t Navitas pay a percentage on profits to the Israeli Gov? Talk about biting the hand that feeds you! Cannot see them endorsing the opinion of a Miami living playboy, but stranger things have happened!

LTT

It could be Odey unwinding a few, knowing that they will get their Placee shares at 53p AND their warrants, so why not off load some now.

LTT

Gus0,

I realise it's already been said in the RNS, but it's nice to see it in the wider media, it means the word is spreading, and we need it to spread if we are to gain more interest in the share. We all know the risks and rewards here, it why we are invested, but once we hit the main stream with articles and FID of Sea Lion, it's better to be on peoples radar don't you think?

LTT

It also mentions Navitas FID-ing Sea Lion in Q4 2025.

All news is welcome in my book.

LTT

Can't believe nobody has seen it?

LTT

Navitas is holding on to recent gains today after the 3 day New Year holiday. As are we, held in a tight trading range with little to no volume. Anyone would think we are waiting on some transformational news!

It’s interesting also that despite Navitas raising some funds, they have not dropped, like us, many saying we will drop to mid/low 60’s and yet here we are.

Of course any news of a delay, could easily send us down to that level and lower, however any good news and it could do the opposite big time. It’s a very big risk to take being short on this stock! It’s also a risk being long, but at least if there is a delay the share price should come back once things get back on track.

For what it’s worth, as another poster mentioned, Sam said in September GM that FID will happen this year, and not to panic if they didn't FID by the end of October, as Navitas were driving the bus and they have said 2H 2025 and there are no reason to not believe them.

Everything is moving along, regulatory, financially and contractually, we just now have to wait until Navitas say, “Jump” and RKH will say, “How high?”. ☺️

LTT

Nikb,

Good to hear, there might be some backtrack by UKGov with the EPL at some point, once Milliband is out and the Chancellor sees sense, however too little too late for a lot of oilers, and they won’t come racing back either way.

LTT

"The BOD are saying now, bor future is hinged to SL FID".

So be honest I didn't see it any other way, FID on Sea Lion opens the province, without Sea Lion going ahead Darwin is just another stranded asset I'm sorry to say. Hopefully Navitas FID and then the flood gates open, that's the only reason I am here is for the capital gains. I'm realistic that even with FID on Sea Lion, Borders will not produce oil/Condensate before the end of this decade. IMHO

LTT

I had Deltic on my watch list for a couple of years and even dipped in and out a couple of times, however that was some time ago, so I dodged a bullet there! When the EPL came in, there days were numbered. It’s very sad for staff and shareholders, I think they were hanging of for a backtrack by UKGov, but it just didn’t happen.

It makes one appreciate how Sam has managed to hold on, at times, by his fingernails and the skin of his teeth to get us on the cusp of FID! We are closer than we have EVER been, this year could be the year when everything changes for the Falklands and shareholders, whether it’s a firework explosion or a slow burn, once the fuse is lit the Falklands will never look back.

By the way, are Navitas due to release a Q3 report soon 🤔. Does anyone know if they have any meetings planned along with Exco having a meeting sometime soon? I heard yesterday that Exco have only one more meeting before FIG dissolved for the election in December. Thanks in advance.

LTT

But can FID actually happen though in November if the Falklands Gov dissolves on the 31st of October? That’s my question 🤔

I think not, but cannot be 100% sure.

LTT

Hi Buzz, yes I think there will be a wave of investors selling, maybe not the Israeli II’s, they will be onboard to first oil, they will follow the money and Gideon delivers. But I wouldn’t underestimate the media and RKH reaching a wider audience. I wouldn’t be surprised if Borders benefited greatly also, with folk thinking, “Well I could buy RKH at 77p, but I can buy 7 shares in Borders for the same amount of cash!”

I think £1 could be breached at FID, then a wave of selling will come in as £1 is a nice round number that folk will sell at. Then it will drop back, said folk will pat themselves on the back for being clever in taking profits, however RKH will to start to climb on news of the FPSO contract, right contract, a partner, boots hitting the ground, etc, etc, etc. Then a percentage of folk who sold, with start to feel they are missing out on further gains and greed will take hold, pushing the shares higher. It’s human nature, it’s a tough call to walk away.

LTT

Hi Leed5,

Yes I was thinking the same. Are RKH funding the submission themselves this time around I wonder? Sam will have a good idea of the costs involved, and I presume the key points and the issues and paperwork will have been done, just copying across and resubmitting. Has Sam raised enough for this purpose, so in 2 years when we win again, they don’t have to pay off the lawyers with win fees and a percentage, then they can do a better deal on selling the award.

LTT

Buzz, we might be currently fair value, because the market is factoring in a delayed FID, but you cannot convince me that once we have FID and the news hits and the gravity of what that means for the Falkland and RKH starts to sink in, the share price will stagnate!?!?!?!

II’s are very risk averse, after all they need a rationale for investing other people money, even then there will be restrictions on many buying in, but once FID is confirmed, there will be a path to first oil. The media whom have been remarkably silent up to now, will have a field day, mark my words.

Nobody seems to grasp what FID actually means in a new province. Look at Exxon, expanding again in Guyana with a seventh offshore development, it’s not really big news anymore. Navitas and RKH are looking at firing the starters gun on the first offshore development, with a possible 3 FPSO’s down the line with upside. Imagine being in on the ground floor when Exxon spudded their first exploration well? We are already well down that curve with FID imminent, and yet the market still believes there will be a delay, or it won’t happen. Once that risk has gone, EVERYTHING comes into play.

LTT

Happy,

I can imagine an alternate conversation!

Benjamin: Melei, my old friend, thank you for your continued support. I also have a favour to ask, can you turn a blind eye to my friends at Navitas whom fill up my war chest with 3% of their earning? They are, as you know, going ahead with the Sea Lion development in the Falklands and the sooner it's pumping the better for me. As more and more countries are turning against us, I can imagine we will become very isolated in the middle east, so a nice supply of oil and gas would be most helpful to us. You can rattle the sabre and bang the drum at the British Empire for taking what's yours, you know as everyone has done coming into the elections, but allow it to continue despite your vocal protests, I mean it works for us!

Melei: Of course Ben my old mate, I will rattle the sabre, but keep a tight rein on anyone doing anything stupid. In return, can you sort us a nice spot on the coast for our Embassy, a prime bit of sea front real-estate, on the Riviera of the Middle East?

Benjamin: No problem, I have the boys clearing it now ready to break ground!

LTT

It's just words, nothing will come of it, like the sanctions on Russia, the war/special manoeuvres are still ongoing and still Europe is getting gas and oil from Russia in a roundabout way to keep everything running.

Same is happening with Israel and Palestine, at some point they will have to sit around the table, but for now, whilst US and the UK and Europe as supplying weapons to Isreal and rubbing their hands together at the prospect of rebuilding contracts, their words are impotent. They are just saying it for show, like the United Nations General Assembly having described the continuing Israeli occupation as illegal, it's just words, it carries no weight I'm sorry to say. I cannot understand what Benjamin Netanyahu game plan is, surely someone else will step in and bring an end to this, however maybe his game plan is to level the Gaza strip and fill in every tunnel and hiding place of Hamas, but what then? Does he actually know?

Anyway back to RKH, there will however be some jitters, it makes sense, folk imagining that Israel will veto Navitas' investment in the Falklands; that companies will become sanctioned for working with Israeli companies and will shy away from contracts, as anyone working with Argentina have done!

It's a crazy world, but while Isreal has US backing they can do what they like. Therefore, I just see this as an excuse to take the share price lower and flush out weaker and over-leveraged holders, nothing more. We are on the path to FID and this is just another blip on that road.

LTT

Pandy2,

The Placing and Open Offer were announced on the 31st of July, the share price has come off the boil a little since then, however its holding up well in anticipation of FID which would trigger the Placing shares and the OO. As the Placing and the OO are to secure funds to take FID it is a very different situation from raising funds to stay on life support as has happened to many companies in the past.

It seems the consensus is that we could break above £1 on the news and then fall back as folk sell into the rise and a flood of Place shares come onto the market.

I’m a contrarian, I think the Israeli investors will hold onto their shares, staying on the Navitas/Gideon gravy train. Any selling will be snapped up by II’s and new PI’s that will see the biggest risk, which is FID in the rear view mirror, plus they will have seen the press coverage, and the knowledge that with FID comes the track to first oil. I wouldn’t underestimate the news of a NEW oil province opening up, and we are in from the start. All in my opinion or course, I could be well off with my strategy. I may also take some risk out of the game, it makes sense to, but once FID drops, the die is cast and first oil is on the road ahead.

LTT

Jewish New Year till Wednesday, so nothing from Navitas until we are into October now. Hopefully we should get some inkling then.

LTT

Morning Solidwood,

If Lloyds is anything like Barclays, they will have a corporate actions section where you can select the amount of OO shares you want to apply for. It happened with the warrants, I applied for them within my ISA, as all my RKH shares are held there, then when they arrived they were transferred out to my standard trading account ready for me to take them up at my leisure.

I imagine something similar will happen with the OO shares, although if you haven’t used up all your ISA allowance for the year, you’ll be able to keep them in the ISA.

I wouldn’t stress about it too much now, we have to get FID over the line first, they will issue an RNS and either at the same time or within a couple of days, they will RNS details of the Open Offer, that will be the time to contact Lloyds to find out how to proceed.

LTT

Also the closing date will be when applications are shortlisted, the interviews will start from week commencing 6th of Oct, so I wouldn't pin my hopes on this being a sign of FID by the end of October!

Sam has repeated that Navitas are saying, "FID by the end of the year". As they are in the drivers seat so to speak, it could be before FIG break for the elections, back end of October, but could also be after the election sometime in December, it's anyones guess!

Everything must be moving forward, whether we will get some indication with an RNS from FIG of sign off on regulatory approval is another matter. Same with Navitas and the International Bank, there could be loads of moving parts going on behind the scenes, but surely, if the Bank was doing the rounds to raise the $1B, there would be a sniff of it. Suppose the first signs would the share price heading higher as maybe the said banks brokering arms start to take positions! Of course, that wouldn't happen as it could be construed as insider dealing!

So, the bottom line is, it could come out of the blue at any time.

LTT