Member Info for longtermthinker

Occasionalsense,

the Open Offer will be triggered once FID happens, then a full document will be issued with an acceptance form.

It will happen pretty much straight after and within 10 business days either way. The amount you get and the date at which you need to hold the shares has already been discussed, but maybe 1-40, 1-50 shares, plus you can apply to take up extras that folk don't apply for.

There will be quite a few people whom will have misplaced their share certificates, moved home, totally forgotten they have any shares, so there will be some extras to be picked up no doubt.

LTT

Canaccord Genuity have upgraded their target from 86p to 90p "Speculative Buy" LOL, why would they bother, it's a binary play, we get FID before March 2026 or we don't. One way sees us over £, the other sees us.........well it's doesn't bare thinking about!

It's actually quite interesting though to look back at previous brokers ratings and price targets. Maybe once FID gets closer, we might some some of the old brokers come back onboard with ratings.

So, I wonder what we are waiting on now? FIG regulatory approval? The International Bank saying their due diligence has been completed and they are asking of all and sundry to put some skin in the game, now that Navitas and RKH have their houses in order.?

Are they really going to sit on this until March next year. Are they going to FID by the end of 2025 or even by the end of October for that matter? What are we waiting for? Is the final bottleneck FIG's regulatory approval and getting their team in place for October?

LTT

Another nail goes into the North Seas coffin. Net Zero is going against all reason.

LTT

I’m kinda happy in a way that Milei is banging the drum and appealing to the masses, I’d be more concerned if hadn’t. He would have had the Peronists all over him and would have been crushed in the elections now and in the future. This way he keeps everyone happy and hopefully secures another term, then he can gradually soften the stance on the Falklands.

But for now, he rattles an impotent sabre to rally support. Create an enemy that everyone can get behind. Every Government has done it at some point in history, and no doubt they will keep doing it to suit their own ends in the future.

LTT

Ha ha, Ribeye,

be careful what you wish for!

Marlon is back posting under a different monicker and Garbled is on his 3rd or 4th name change, now goes by the name Divi-Collector. Not sure about Bluehorses though.

There are many of the old guard still here living the.....erm hanging onto the dream!

However, the dream of FID is now closer that is has EVER been. Navitas say by the end of the year and the road blocks are falling away, having raised their share of funds and now RKH having go there in escrow waiting for FID. Just need FIG to sort out the fiscal regime/tax and the International Bank to sign off and we are off to the races.

LTT

LC,

I think we should be prepared for more days like this going forward IMHO, down then up, up then back down. It is pretty scary seeing profits in your folio vanish in the morning, then reappear by the afternoon! Them’s the risks I’m afraid.

These games are only going to get worse and more intense as we move towards FID and beyond.

I couldn’t trade this to save my life LOL! I’m no savvy enough, I’d get it wrong big style. Plus once FID is in the bag, although there are risks of delays, drilling issues and probably 101 things that could go wrong, we WILL have the cash to get there and the end game to first oil, the share price will be invariably higher than today. IMHO

But good luck whether you are adding, selling or holding firm on the journey as there are multiple ways of getting there.

LTT

Also it might have been worked up to get a higher price for the placing, much better to do it at 53p than at 33p! Maybe they were working it up and folk thought WOW this is it, we are taking off, and bought in, as per the discovery days. Ending up overshooting where they wanted to be.

Hence the rather hasty Placing Announcement saying £140m rather than $140m. Share holders were fooled into thinking that 80p+ was where we should be, but in reality, prior to FID, a realistic price is 65p-75p between the placing price and the warrants. IMHO

LTT

Steve,

I think the original route to get this over the line was vendor finance and a bond issue, the very fact they don’t need that anymore implies to me at least that the International Bank made all the right noises, saying they can get folk onboard. If would be very amateur of them, once RKH and Nav have done their bit, to back track and say, “Nah, we are not feeling it, how about vendor finance and a bond issue?”

LTT

Well that the Placeeing are not getting such an exceptional deal at this share price, and the warrants are well above the current share price. I expect once things have calmed down a little we should hopefully stabilise around 70p for FID. But who knows, the market is so fickle and any excuse to drive it one way or another is taken advantage of.

If you still believe Sea Lion will go ahead, that Navitas will FID and the Bank will sign off on the $1B along with FIG, this will be just a little blip on an upward trend.

LTT

Think I'd prefer they booked the Hercules rather than the Endeavour, but I suppose it all comes down to costs, length of contract and many other variables.

It would be crazy to take down a rig already 50 years old with another possible 10 years of work to do!!!!!! Even though it had an upgrade in 2009, it's still knocking on a bit!

Suppose we will see, the rumours are good hear either way, as it means Navitas are looking at every option and, as has been said, they don't need to book it just yet, even at FID, as it won't be needed until late 2026 as the earliest.

LTT

WOW, Divi,

you are braver than me, although I have never shorted anything in my life. I cannot understand why you would short RKH, we have risen from 14p in November laster you, reaching the highs of 90p+ and have now settled back to 75p. That has been on very little real news, it's all been rumour, hearsay and snippets here and their.

What happens if FIG announce that the fiscal regime is sorted later this week? If Navitas announce the bank is doing the rounds to get the cash in order? They announce FID with a partner? I understand your thinking, that once FID is announced Israeli II's and the big investors whom got in on the placing, along with PI, flood the market with 53p shares, it will get below your average and you can close your shorts, but what if that doesn't happen? You could lose your shirt, it's a very risky bet, and one of the reasons I don't short, as for every person who closes a successful short, there are probably 10 or 20 whom are worse off IMHO.

By the way, didn't your say there was a meeting going on in the Falklands in November/December when FIG issues the proclamation to dissolve on the 31st of October, awaiting the election on the 11th of December?

"There will be an important meeting in the Falklands between the FIG and new oily faces in late 2025.

I think it won’t be just about Sea Lion. ALL IMHO DYOR"

What if Navitas and Delek bought out Borders at FID to sew up North and South for the future. What is Murphy or Ithaca or similar came on board? It could happen and is as likely as it dropping to the low 60's. There are a multitude of things that could happen that could go against you.

Well good luck with your plans, but I have to be honest, I hope it doesn't work out for you, as why would I want the share price to drop back to 53p, why would any of the Placee's big holders, II's and PI's want that!

LTT

So, it's just the usual drip down with the odd sell/buy here and there, no volume to write home about, which makes a lot of sense after the recent highs. Once we are in the millions at 10:30 in a morning, then that would swing the share price up and plummet down, but as of this message we are what, 200k bought to 250k sells, hardly anything to worry about unless you are in too deep or over leveraged!

I'm hoping that the vote tomorrow is for the Yay rather than the Nay, don't want to drag up all the reasons for and against, everyone as said there bit and hopefully will have got their vote in with their brokers.

Don't expect anything else, just an RNS saying it's done. Then I imagine we are waiting for FIG to sort out the tax/fiscal regime going forward and our own tax liability, as the International Bank will not be able to whip the hat around and secure the $1B without knowing where RKH and FIG stand.

Does anyone know when the next FIG/Exco meeting is booked in for? Is it October prior to the closing for the Government for the election?

LTT

Have to agree, a cheap rust bucket with issues waiting in the background with nowhere nearby for maintenance! You’d imagine Navitas will be aware of the ill fated last campaign and will take heed.

So it would make sense to get something pretty modern as it will be done there for a minimum of 5+ years and could end up drilling continuously for 10+ years!

LTT

Morning donalb,

I could ask AI, but the answers might not be correct and I think you are wise ask someone in the industry.

I can hypothesize though, I’d imagine the Aoka would just unlink the turret and sail away, Prax would be responsible for the subsea stuff and decommissioning. The Aoka, I imagine, wouldn’t have the cranes and the deck space to assist with all that, but I cannot be certain.

But either way, as Mogger posted, the contract between Prax and Bluewater was amended from 6 months notice by either party, down to 3 months. So once FID is done and dusted, I expect Bluewater to invoke the end of contract and start the clock on the 3 months, then it’s off to re-fit wherever that may be.

Once FID is sorted, Navitas won’t hang about IMHO, there will be no roadblocks to steaming ahead. All we need is the vote next week to pass and FIG to sort the tax regime, etc. Without that the International Banks $1B cannot come into play.

LTT

But hopefully not for much longer! FID October then January it’s off hire and heading down for a refit .

LTT

Steve,

but have we given a third away, we are getting something for that third, a chance of getting FID over the line, a life changing opportunity for the Falklands and maybe for quite a few shareholders. Without those funds we are dead in the water, we would have to pony up far more than a third if that cash wasn't now sat in an account waiting for FID.

As for a partner, it makes sense to me that nobody has come on board, why would anyone prior to FID?

Look at history, RKH made the discovery and yet only 2 were interested and only 1 came up with a half decent offer. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but it seemed great at the time, we got Sea lion arrpaised and got close to FID (well maybe not that close by all accounts), then the only partner to come onboard was Navitas, with the promise of cash.

However, UKEF said no way, Covid hit, then PMO collapsed under the strain of being spread too thin and Harbour swooped in! Even Harbour with their resources walked away and only Navitas was left standing. They took over as operator, and now they have gone from scratching around, hoping for a UKFE backdoor loophole and possible Oil trader finance, Vendor finance; to getting RKH to raise their share and having just sorted their own share , with an International Bank ponying up $1B. That shows Naivitas' finacial strength IMHO. Like when Scott R Gutterman said in an investors presentation, "Navitas' got all the cash together PRIOR to FID, that maybe doesn't mean much to folk in this room, but in my 30 years in the industry, it's unheard of!"

So firstly why would anyone think of Farming in up to now, imagine if they had done it with PMO; imagine if they had done it when Harbour took over, you can see where i am going with this, nobody is interested until everyone is interested.

Now, Navitas have got the financial strength to go it alone, once they FID, they will be beating possible partners off with a big stick, dictating their own terms because FID IS the game changer, is sets everyone off an a critical path, WITH the funds in place to get to first oil. Not waiting on a UKEF promise of cash that can changed to please an electorate; not relying on a take-over that looks certain to run with things, then decides "Nah, it just does't fit with our strategy!"

No, FID will change everything and then bigger players will come, no way will Navitas go it alone, it wouldn't make any sense with such a HUGE prize a stake, plus in the recent Investors Presentation, Gideo mentioned a lot of gas in the Falklands. They are not going to monitize that without some help. IMHO

LTT

Hi bokorbilly,

I was thinking the same, there was someone sniffing around a few years ago as you say, even making an offer that was rejected, however with Navitas about to FID Sea Lion and fire the starters pistol, with FIH sat on a lot of lucrative land, there might be something in the offing again. If Navitas FID, then everything changes big style!

I only have a few shares as a punt and for the dividend pay-out, of course is could drop after the ex-div date and if I wanted to sell, I might not even break even! But them's the risks and the rewards.

Once FID happens, FIH will HAVE to be involved, it would be impossible not to be as they have fingers in so many pies.

"The operations relating to the Islands may be divided into five categories: Retailing, Property for commercial and residential use, Motor services including the sale and hire of vehicles, Agency services and Shipping to and from the islands."

60% of Retail on the Islands, once the influx of oily folk come to the Islands with money burning a hole in their pockets, they will have to spend it on the Islands. 400 acres of lands for commercial and residential development, so even if they don't get all the contracts for construction, they we supply the land and ship in the building materials, etc.

Anyway, I'm not trying to convince anyone to buy, as they would be well offside afterwards due to liquidity, but I've convinced myself FID will happen and FIH will benefit in one way or another, fingers crossed.

LTT

Steve,

A partner will come in for sure, Navitas need someone to share the risk and reward, plus they are already carrying RKH, the more I think about it, it just seems impossible they would go at this slowly.

I know Shenandoah is operated by Beacon, but they sanction phase 2 before first oil, they then sanction Shenandoah South just after. Navitas talk about the next big thing, not “The 10 Year Wait!” It is inconceivable they wouldn’t want to open up the basin faster, they can only do that with a partner.

Could it be Ithaca or Delek, keeping it all in the Israeli family but still with RKH in the mix to keep FIG happy with the connection to the UK 🤔

One scenario I can see is after FID a parter comes in, taking 20% from Navitas and up to 5% from us for a hefty wad of cash. That would put us in the clear to fund any eventually going forward, be it going straight on to sanction Phase 2 (which FIG have signed off to on the FDP) or tootling down to Isobel during some rig down time. IMHO

LTT

Happy you are a funny one, (I mean that in a kinda way), you preach caution and to not get carried away with RKH share price, saying it's all priced in and will drop on FID, and yet you want to short Borders!!!!!!!

Borders might be ripe for a drop, but if Navitas and a partner were to take them out, to sew up north and south, you might just lose your house! Imagine if Delek came onboard, you would be so offside it doesn't bear thinking about. I'm pretty sure it was said with tongue in cheek, at least I hope it was!

It would be easy to take out a short on RKH at the moment, but I don't think you will, as although you believe with conviction that FID is priced in, there is that niggle that you might be wrong. A partner might come in, a big partner, what would happen to your short then? I'm not saying it will happen, nobody knows, but is just as likely at your scenarios of shares flooding the market and causing a drop or treading water.

Who could have believed we would be around 80p this time last year having hit 90p+. After FID being pushed back to H2/Q4 of 2026.

Now we are locked a loaded, in a better position than we have EVER been. RKH have their share of funds in the bank and are voting next week on a buffer for further eventualities; Navitas have done their raise also; the International Bank is waiting with $1B which I have no doubt is ready to go. I have re-listened to the recent Navitas Investors video and when they talk about securing the International Bank, they continue to say, "I am happy to report, that all the major entities in the economy are being selected to participate in the financing, as well as Israeli Banks." This was long before they planned their own raise. Of course the translation leaves a little to be desired, so make of that what you well.

We are just having a dip down ready for the next leg up IMHO. It makes sense that we might drop below the warrants price of 80p, but I don't think the II's and large holders will flood the market, and even if they did, the media frenzy would take up the slack.

Also don't forget all those Student Loans hitting the bank accounts, plus the pensioners getting their £300, they will all be piling into the Rock! LOL

;-)

LTT

Nice one Space, I hope you enjoy you last half day and the future is good to you whatever your plans, be it on the golf course, traveling, in the garden, doing whatever you have always wanted to do, but never got the chance ☺️👍

Like Space, I am pretty much staying in now until first oil or take-over whichever comes first. Once FID is done, hopefully soon, then it will be on the path, with ups and downs, but on a trend upwards to first oil. I cant wait, but I reserve the right to sell or buy a few here and there along the way as suits me, as things change, life changes and one has to be agile and flexible to those changes.

Good luck whatever your strategy.

LTT