Member Info for longtermthinker

Buzz, RKH are not getting any funding from the banks, they are getting funding from the Placees, Navitas are stumping up the rest, plus their share not part of the $1B sourced from the Bank.

The cornerstone bank seems to be onboard otherwise we would have heard something by now. Navitas is having a meeting about funding in the next two weeks, I cannot see Gideon, with his track record, not getting what he wants. However, stranger things have happened!

LTT

I’m will Alma on this ZYX, if the contractors are doing what you say, then folk will be wise to is and not let experienced people move on, they will be wise to the head count also as Navitas will have to run a very tight ship.

Also, what are team Ramsey going to do if they are out of the loop, Ian and the team came on board for Sea Lion, once they FID, if thry have nothing to do, they can hardly go back to Murphy!

Interesting times are ahead.

LTT

And that is just from Sea Lion, if Isobel or Darwin follow afterwards, they numbers will grow massively, they could be looking at $500m-$1B per year in 8-10 years from now if everything falls into place!

So just think what the likes of Navitas, RKH and Borders could be earning!

The mind boggles!

LTT

Our Israeli investors have already missed out on the share price rise in Ithaca, 20%+ in the past couple of days. I am sure they wouldn’t have put up any cash for the Placing if it was to just get the 4% interest rate if FID fell through, would anyone here? 🤔

I wouldn’t, because nobody now’s 100% for sure how this is going to pan out.

LTT

You say that Buzz, but nobody can see the future, from what Happy is saying, FID will be a damp squid, so if we drop to 65p due to delays, then FID drops in Jan 2026, are they going to sell into a rise? They would be shooting themselves in the foot as it means their warrants are worthless until they get above 80p and if they got above that to say 90p, then who would sell them for only a 11% profit with the road clearly heading towards first oil?

Still it’s an interesting debate, some feeling it will be a damp squib and head down to 53p, some believing it will shoot up above £1 only to crash back down.

It all depends on Navitas, the Unconditional placing and OO going through, FIG, UKGov, lots of things have to still come together in a timely manner and thus the reason the Placees have to put up the cash until March 2026, in the world of investing that is a long time and a lot of missed opportunity. IMHO.

LTT

But Happy,

Those folk ARE taking a risk, their cash is now stuck until FID, yes we all hope and expect it to happen by Oct/Nov, but if not, what then? The share price ebbs down to a lower price! Or it takes until Q1 to FID and they have locked their cash away, missing other opportunities to invest in, let’s face it, they may get their money back with interest, but if that’s what they wanted, they would have just stuck it in a bank account!

Let’s look at another scenario, let’s say we are all offered a deal of 53p a share, we have to put the cash up front and we are issued the shares at the end of Q1, that’s a great deal at this moment in time, but as I say, FID gets pushed back and we drop to 60p, then 55p and then we are at 50p, how happy would everyone be having no cash to buy at a lower price than the offer, because the cash is waiting for FID. There is no winning formula, Sam has had to do what he and the board thought was right at the time. You either accept it and run with it, or vote against it and risk putting us in a weaker position, and we know how Mr Market loves the weak, it tears them apart.

LTT

Thanks again Mogger,

That is great news, I was hoping for a renegotiation on the wind down terms when they extended the contract, and there it is, 3 months, not 6 months as stated previously.

I think upon FID, the contract will be signed on the Aoka, and the clock will start ticking down. It could be heading to dry dock by the end of Q4 2025 or Q1 2026. I will be interested to see how they are going to up the Aoka’s capacity 🤔 I know someone mentioned a while ago that they could cut the hull in half and weld in a new section 😬. Not sure if it’s possible but will be interesting to find out.

I am getting very excited now, everything is coming together and it will be interesting to see how everything pans out.

LTT

Divi,

What has a 10% tariff on fish, which is a major export to the US got to do with raising money to open up a new oil province? So in answer to your question, there will be pretty much zero impact.

The Falklands have got the cash they need due to the recent loan they took out. RKH have their cash sorted and Navitas will no doubt be tapping the same Israeli market where RKH picked up their investors from.

So, where is the difficulty you imply coming from?

LTT

I am with you there Gus, just Divi is scaremongering again and I wanted to point out that he should be careful what he wishes for. I don't understand why he has a real downer on RKH, if they can FID, it's great news for ALL Falklands players.

I am hoping that after FID, news will come think and fast, we would be 15+ in a blink upon FID and higher when the media gets hold of it. If we then got a partner, well, who knows where we could end up in the excitement.

LTT

Divi,

I wouldn't hope for RKH to have a delay in FID and the insurance payout, as it will have a knock on effect here for sure. EVERYTHING is now dependant on RKH getting their funds; the insurance; Navitas having their meeting on the 7th of Sept and them getting their funds in place and then finally FID on Sea Lion.

I know many people don't want to believe it or think about it, but if FID doesn't happen on Sea Lion, then the house of cards comes tumbling down, any partner sniffing around Borders, ready to Farm-in at FID, will walk away IMHO, because if Navitas and RKH couldn't get Sea Lion over the line, with a fully appraised, $1.2B of past spend on it; if they cannot get the funds after all the EIS, FDP, and jumping through hoops, what hope would Borders have?

Even if a parter was still interested after all that, they would want a much bigger slice of the action to take on the risk.

So be careful what you wish for.

A rising tide lifts all boats, but it also works the other way.

LTT

Thanks JEBR,

That makes a lot of sense, so the earlier years they make less, then more, then less again as production wains, a bell curve. Although with near by tie-backs and then Isobel, the production bell curve will extend higher for longer and thus more income for FIG.

Also, as I think Oil Brat used to say, an oil field is never in isolation, there will be a load more oil, just look at the North Sea. Once FIG start new licensing rounds and FID is in the rear view mirror, the amount of cash rolling in will be astronomical!

LTT

Thanks Mogger, so the FIG expects to get £280m per year once Sea Lion is up and running! I am wonder if that is based on current oil prices and on completion of phase 1 pumping 55k barrels per day, as once the next phases come online and the FPSO is swapped out for one that does 100k+ their revenues would double and then some!

Either way, seems like Navitas are all over this with plane charters and plans to build a hotel and worker accommodation. I do hope they have their meeting in Sept and FID end of Sept, otherwise why would they say 2nd half of 2025 rather than in Q4 🤔

But then, I’ll be happy if they FID anything be the end of the year as once the first stone topples, I’m expecting an avalanche of news.

LTT

“The slow, costly energy transition and underinvestment in exploration have led Big Oil and NOCs to refocus on oil and gas, with analysts warning another oil super-cycle may be needed after 2030.”

The above is from Oilprice, I know they have articles changed oil price predictions like the wind, but even if it partially comes to pass, we could be pumping oil as the market tightens and shale in the US starts its inevitable, terminal decline.

All we need is Navitas to have their meeting in Sept and possible our shareholder meeting to say yay or nay to the OO and Unconditional Placing, then we are off to the races. Fingers crossed.

LTT

That is why I'm implying there must be a partner coming onboard, the more I think about it, the less likely it seems that Navitas and RKH will go it alone, or even can.

To do as you suggest, RKH would need to raise further cash to be able to afford the rig time to drill Isobel for sure, Navitas will have an income stream from Shenandoah but RKH will be paying 85% of income as repayment of the loans, so they will either have to farm down or do a raise. Of course the share price will be must higher at such a time, but they will still need some cash.

Or is RKH raising enough with the Placing and the Conditional Placing for such an eventuality? If not, they may do a farm down of say 3% and Nav give up 22% to a partner post FID and get some cash in hand to drill Isobel and start the ball rolling there. Once FID is done and the stones start to roll down that hill, the value of RKH and Navitas will be a lot higher, even if it is not reflected in the share price straight away. So what could 3% be worth post FID, $100m?

If FID comes to pass in Oct/Nov, I think everything will become clear and there will be some surprises too IMHO.

LTT

Not to mention a rig contract that will last for 9+ years if they are drilling straight through/back to back on Phases 1,2,3,4,5! And that is without any drilling issues or drilling any explorations/appraisals elsewhere in the basin.

This is one of the reason I see a partner coming in, it is just far too big a project for Navitas to go it alone with RKH being dragged along behind. IMHO

9+ years of drilling just for Sea Lion, so nothing else gets looked at in the basin until 2038?!?!?!?!?!? No Isobel exploration/appraisals, no drilling targets within tie-back distance to the FPSO, just Navitas and RKH plodding along?

Hhhhhhhmmm, I cannot see it myself, once FID happens I expect a partner to come in.

LTT

Thanks Mogger,

I’m currently reading through the massive amount of information in the link you posted, a lot will have progressed since March going by the pace everyone is working at, it’s all looking very good indeed.

However, what has sealed if for me, that proves Sea Lion is going ahead and Navitas will FID, is that the FIG purchased of a Trommel on the back of works that are scheduled to happen over the next couple of years, including Navitas’ hard causeway plan. Navitas have agreed a good rate per ton that means FIG will get their money back half way through the completion of the TDF causeway! Then it starts making money of further projects. A win, win! 😉

But on a more seriousness note, it’s just another example of the little things going on, that are adding up to making FID likely to happen.

I also don’t agree with Happy implying Ed will have a say and FIG need some sort of UKGOV backing. That has been a non starter since before Covid when PMO were going for UKEF, then Boris I think put an end to that. It certainly adding a nail into the PMO coffin, at that point they were a dead man walking, totally unaware!

Ed won’t say a word, it’s not his business, and if asked about the decline of the North Sea and the growth of Falklands oil industry, we will just say the party line, “I’m disappointed, but it’s for the Falklands people to decide.”

IMHO.

LTT

Or the end of October 😉☺️

Happy,

You may be right, the issue of the placing shares and the overhang of the warrants might just cause the share price to tread water, the buying and selling cancelling each other out.

However, the only major shareholder is Aedos Advisers at 8% whom will no doubt take a portion of the placing and the Israeli investors, so who is going to be selling?

Maybe Aedos would sell some but I would imagine they would be snapped up going by the strength in the recent share price. Many folk like me, will be holding on to them as once FID is in the bag, we are on the road to first oil and what is 3 years of news, the rig booking; FPSO heading for refit; contracts signed; rig setting sail, even with delays to get to first oil, we will be in our way, plus there is the possibility of a partner coming in putting a firecracker under this thing!

Also what about the II’s, whom have steered clear of RKH, will they not want a slice of RKH once FID is done. My money is on a blip up, then a bit of a crash down, engineered to allow the institutions to get in at cheaper prices. For traders it will be fun, but for the long term holders it will be nothing but a slight dip on an upward trend IMHO.

But as always, please dyor, don’t trust my opinion or anyone else’s, we all have different strategies, goals, averages to be taken into account.

Either way, I wish everyone good luck whatever their plan. It won’t be long now.

LTT

Seems like the warrants are holding us at around 75p give or take, even so, I don’t feel there will be a big sell off once we breach 80p. After all these years, once FID is finally in the bag and official news of contracts getting signed off, the share price should hold quite well if not head higher.

I suppose we will just have to wait and see, but Sept/Oct is going to be exciting to say the least. The media we go wild and anyone who hasn’t heard about the Falklands Oil bonanza, soon will. IMHO.

LTT

Gus,

But wasn’t that between PMO and RKH, when Harbour took over and that let everything go back to RKH, 100% of everything so I thought, then Navitas came along, farmed in as I said previously, and RKH got to keep 35%.

I didn’t think we could count the money received from PMO. However, I could be wrong, and Borders might get a farm-in and some back costs, I hope so. I wonder how much we would have to give away for an appraisal and a well test, as that would be the priority, then once the well test is complete, the share price would be worlds different from now, we could raise for development, or at least our share of development costs.

Then it’s just a matter of getting all the ducks lined up, EIS, FDP, FPSO refit and a rig. Just maybe if Navitas get a higher spec rig, we might get a couple of drilling slots. 🤞

LTT