Member Info for longtermthinker

No way would RKH and more recently Navitas, have gone for the fund raise/placing if the International Bank hadn't signalled that due diligence was going well and there were no stumbling blocks. They would have been well aware Navitas, with Shenandoah pumping and from past experience, that they would be good for getting the cash, the only issue would have been RKH and FIG tax issue. Now RKH have the funds to get to first oil with headroom, we just need FIG to pull their finger out before the end of October. Maybe that will come after next weeks GM.

LTT

Nice! Shows they are cracking on with the next big thing.

I just want to take a moment to let it sink in, the gravity of the situation we are in. RKH are closer to FID than they have EVER been! PMO talked a good fight, but it was all smoke, mirrors and hot air. Always it was next year, or 6 months away, but we can clearly see from all the work Navitas have done, they were dreaming!

Navitas have dragged FIG and RKH along to get to this point, RKH have the funds in the bank now to get them to first oil, Navitas have the funds also . FIG have to do their bit and the International Bank I imagine cannot sign off on the cash until FIG has sorted the tax and fiscal regime. Once that is in the bag the dominos should start to fall.

Exciting times are ahead.

LTT

Mark,

I never said it was a possibility UkGov would say No, I just said UKGov would need to sign off as part of their foreign policy. Just a box ticking exercise, nothing more, nothing less, but it still has to be done.

I think we can all agree if Mad Ed or Starmer, or anyone for that matter tried to obstruct or delay FIG from exploiting their own resources, it would be political suicide, the media would have a field day and the Falklands lobbyists would come out fighting.

So for the record, I believe UKGov will not cause any problems.

LTT

But Happy,

As XYZ points out, once they FID there would be reason to take the foot off the gas, they would just increase costs if they were to stretch out the development drilling, etc to late 2028/29 or even 2030. It wouldn’t make economic sense as everything has been costed to an end point which is production in Q1 2028 give or take.

I am all for being realistic, but you are looking at this in a very pretty negative way. How can the opening of a new oil province be currently priced in? RKH and Navitas are say on some pretty large acreage that has a huge amount of potential. Also you haven’t factored in a partner, I am pretty sure Navitas will not go it alone, in fact I would hazard to say it would be crazy for them to go it alone on such a large acreage with massive upside. If they take on a another partner that takes away a lot of the lower oil price outlook risk, as even at $55 a barrel, a point where Shale would really struggle, they could easily service their debt, and as we know Sea Lion can still be profitable at that price.

So im just saying, yes there may be lots of down sides, but you need to counter with the positive scenarios that could also come about in the future if you are to take a balanced view.

LTT

And the even smaller ones in between. Not implying there are hidden messages, but it does seem odd.

LTT

LOL, it just shows how numbers can be fudged depending on your perspective and starting point.

I wonder if Rachel could have used that technique, "Well YTD I wasn't aware I hadn't paid enough tax!"

;-)

LTT

I don't think that's right Silverfoil, I have both RKH and Borders and RKH shares have gone up almost 500% in the past year!

LTT

Buzz, I may be looking at this through rose tinted glasses but don’t you think things have progressed in a certain order for a reason?

An international bank that is a well know name to everyone at the AGM comes on board to corner-stone the $1B, feed back from them has been positive. Then RKH out of the blue does a Placing to get its house in order, prior to receiving the insurance payout. Now Navitas have sorted their cash to move things forward.

Doesn’t that strike you as a pattern of progress requested by said Bank as part of the conditions to secure the $1B ?🤔

But, then as I say, I am a glass half full kinda guy, feeling the next step will be RKH GM on the 16th to vote for the conditional placing and the OO, followed by FIG sorting the Tax regime, now and going forward and doing some deal on RKH implied Tax liability. IMHO.

LTT

I’m in here for the special dividend and the prospect of Navitas FID Sea Lion, if that comes to pass this company will do very well I think. They have land for building the hotel and accommodation, they have rental properties, they have shipping and almost everything that comes into the islands comes through them.

I liken it to the gold rush days, some prospectors won, many lost, but the real winners where the ones who supplied the pots, pan, food etc.

What’s this space IMHO, it might not go ballistic much capitals gains and a dividend are not to be sneezed at.

LTT

Erm……. Because the UKGov have to sign off on it. It’s part of their foreign affairs policy, of course they cannot stop it happening, if they said “No” that would go against Falklands right to self determination, and what a can of worms that would open, and UKGov have said all along that the Falklands has the right to do what it likes with its oil.

However, UKGov still have to sign off, it’s just a fact, another box to be ticked. Not implying anything untoward, just saying it as it is.

LTT

If you're in/out you will either slap yourself on the back or cry into your breakfast depending on the outcome of Navitas' funding on Monday morning. Unless of course Navitas announce they have secured funding for Sea Lion, and say nothing else about a timeline, and the share price opens where it is now! Which could well happen.

It's actually quite possible as everyone seems to feel that Navitas have got this, it's already priced in as a done deal, and why wouldn't they, now Shenandoah is up and running, the cash must be rolling in, thus they are only raising $300m. The weakest link has always been RKH and now they have been forced into getting it sorted, Navitas are going ahead sorting their side. RKH's Conditional Placing and OO is just a "Nice to have" in the back pocket just in case, but the main share of funding that RKH has to provide is already sat in Escrow waiting for the starters pistol.

So what's next, FIG have a meeting then sign off on the Tax regime and RKH's tax bill? I wonder what the catalyst will be that makes Navitas announce FID?

Either way, it's not long now hopefully.

Have a good weekend all.

LTT

Gordon,

Ed hasn't really commented, just that the Falkland Islanders have a right to exploit their hydrocarbons. UKEF will not support the project, but we have know that was off the cards back in 2020/21 so no surprises there.

I believe the Falklands lobby are pretty fierce so I cannot see UKGov going again their wishes, plus I am sure there has been behind the scenes promises of FIG paying their way on the military presence on the Islands.

LTT

Mesquida,

he is referring to the Navitas Funding for Sea Lion meeting that is happening in Tel Aviv this Sunday afternoon. Everyone is saying it's a forgone conclusion that they will get the funds as they would have tested the appetite for it long before now.

So the knock on effects are, Navitas secure funding this Sunday; RKH have their Conditional Placing and OO vote signed off on the 16th of Sept; The international bank will already be onboard otherwise why would Navitas being going after funds now; FIG sign off on the Tax regime and RKH tax situation; then they FID the project before 31st of October when the FIG has to close it's business for the run up to the election.

Then it all goes crazy, FPSO contract and rig contract, long lead times getting signed off AND Borders comes into play as once boots are hitting the ground, it puts them on the map so to speak. Of course Borders are already on the map and have a huge discovery, but it is a bit isolated until someone breaks ground on a new oil province.

I'd like to think that once Navitas FID, there is someone waiting in the wings to either take a stake, farm-in, or possibly take-over Borders, but either way, once they FID Sea Lion, we will be past 15p in a blink IMHO.

LTT

Bigred7,

I have no idea and cannot predict the share price, I've been wrong so many times thinking, "I cannot go any higher now until FID" and yet here we are!

I cannot see FID being delayed, but then it already has been delayed from Q4 2024, so we are already in overtime. I suppose my thinking is, the fact Navitas have no doubt strong-armed Sam into getting his house in order ready for their own funding meeting, implies that everything is in order, the International Bank has all but signalled that it's game on. The only weak link is FIG and UKGov sign off, but again, would FIG allow them to push ahead and move the Election dates if they wanted to delay or not sign off on everything in time!

I suppose you have to decide whether you are in, out or want to de-risk for the weekend so you don't get caught out.

LTT

Happy,

I could imagine UK II’s flipping the shares, Adoes had 8%, they would be happy to sell for 100% gain all the shares they have received and keep the warrants and reduce thier holding back to 5-8%.

However the Israeli investors whom make the bulk of the Placing, I’m not so sure. If they are taking part in the Placing because they believe in Gideon, why would they sell?

Once FID is done, the first stone has started to roll down the mountainside, it will build up pace causing an avalanche of news. Going on Gideons track record of delivering, why would they not stay for the journey, 3 years might seem a long time to short term traders, but to investors it’s not that long at all to wait for some serious returns.

You may be right and the shares will fall back at FID once the placing shares are issued, but we are on the road to first oil, not a raise to keep our head above water, keep the wolf from the door as has been happening so many times in the past.

LTT

Alma, is it possible that they are raising $300m as they have an investment vehicle coming onboard to the tune of 10% at FID?🤔

They did it with Shenandoah, it helps out in the short time and going forward, for as we know it’s not just $1.8B, that’s just to first oil. It would take some of the pressure off.

Just a thought.

LTT

Why is everyone talking like the journey is almost over, when the reality is, Navitas getting funding and FID is just the start on a road to opening up a new oil province and first oil.

Of course there will be ups and downs along the way, but the trend will be up towards first oil once FID comes to pass. Then when Navitas FID, I feel news will come thick and fast, contracts get signed, the Aoka Mizu goes on 3 month countdown before heading off for refit, maybe rig contract signed, long lead items signed off and boots hit the ground in the Falklands, maybe sorting out the yards near the docks or building the hotel. It will all start to happen sooner than we think if they truly plan to get first oil in 2028.

All the above along with the media headlines AND the possibility of a partner onboard, who wouldn’t want to be out during the next 30 months! 🤔

Of course, there are still risks and de-risking at some point between now and first oil will be a very sensible thing to do, if easier said than done, I currently have a plan at certain share prices, a bit like Supra, that way I’m banking some profit along the way, but also take into account what is happening also and the sentiment.

However isn’t it all getting exciting.

LTT

Hoping this will pop up on FID of Sea Lion, I imagine the warrants purchaser is hoping the same, otherwise why pay 35k now when they have another year or so in which to cash in! Keep the 35k in the bank and earn interest, offset a mortgage, even invest elsewhere, after all the warrants aren't going anywhere! Why pay now for less that a 10% gains if they sold today?

No, I think something is brewing and we might get swept up in the excitment of Navitas FID-ing Sea Lion in October. Fingers crossed.

LTT

Hi Buzz, it does seem interesting timing 🤔. Suppose business is business, £100m helps another Israeli company to do well.

As for the bank finance, I’m not too worried about that. Navitas has trumpeted the fact that they have done this before, with Shenandoah, which was a far more complicated drill and development project. They got it over the line and producing, all be it with Beacon as operator, but then what is Beacon, but a few oil veterans backed by a big investment house. Navitas got the money and delivered, why wouldn’t they do it again?

As you say, we shall see.

LTT

Hi Happy, that makes a lot of sense, if Navitas need say $150m to cover all costs for 2026, then they’d fund it from $100m of their funds and $50m of ours, which implies to me, we shouldn’t be racking up any costs until well into possibly 2027. This using up our funds and Navitas’ before getting into the cornerstone banks $1B. That will come in once the rig mobs down and the FPSO is having its refit. IMHO.

Whichever way you cut it, RKH shouldn’t be on the clock from day one. I think 🤔

LTT