Member Info for longtermthinker

Nomlkanymore,

May I ask what your thoughts are on Navitas going it alone? Do you think opening up a new basin is something 2 players, well 1 main player with RKH tagging along on Navitas’ coat tails, is something they can do, or even should try to do?

I’m just thinking about the timeline, if as many hypotheses, Navitas go it alone, they have 64+ wells to do before they even consider drilling elsewhere, that’s almost 10 years of back to back drilling on Sea Lion.

13 years (if FID happens this year) before they look at Isobel, Elaine, plus the numerous targets around the basin. Who knows what the world will look like 13 years from now. Wouldn’t it be more sensible to take on other partners to share the risk and reward, but more importantly to share the costs to get the basin up and running, not just Sea Lion.

Would be interested in your thoughts.

KR

LTT

But Gus,

We should also remember, RKH had over $1.2B in drilling and appraisal back costs, and Navitas were paid by Harbour $6m to take RKH off their hands. And what did RKH get, 8% pre FID loans and 0% Post FID loans up to 1 year after first oil. Well 2 thirds of the Post FID loans, they have had to do a pretty hefty placing for the 1 third they have to fund themselves.

No upfront payment to RKH, no back costs, and they took 65% of the whole acreage.

Harry will have to do something nifty to get a better deal than that, I hope he can.

KR

LTT

I was surprised to read in the July Presentation that daily production was expected to be 32k, I thought they were talking of 50k + 🤔

Maybe I missed something!

LTT

Hi Space,

I believe you are right, it was just good to see a good full year of production coming in for 2028 if we are still around. Hopefully Navitas can forge ahead, once RKH have sorted the placing, unless the vote against puts a spanner in the works and we have to give away a percentage!?!?!?! 😳🤣😉

I’m just teasing.

LTT

HiramAbiff,

I like the idea, but I feel more likely is December 2026 at the earliest. If they are drilling 6/7 wells to get to first oil, that would be 50 days a production well give or take, so a years worth of drilling.

If they start too soon, the Aoka Mizu won’t be ready, so I’m inclined to think, once the Aoka has left under contact for refit, and we have a schedule for completion, we will be able to work backwards about a year for a drilling start date and depending where it’s coming from, add on a couple of month for mob. IMHO.

LTT

Thanks for sharing the link Space, it’s all looking very positive indeed!

Some things I’ve picked up on are that in their bar charts although they say first oil expected is 2028, they have put a sneaky bit into 2027, and thus are pumping at full speed for 2028. Of course it could slip, but still nice to see.

Also, I noticed on every project they have at least 2 other partners with some going up to 5, so I still feel someone will come into the frame either at FID or post FID prior to first oil.

LTT

It appears Navitas are going for it, the least we can do is vote FOR in the OO and Conditional Placing, if it didn’t go through, we could hold up FID and then have to offer more and get less, further dilution! I definitely do not want that to come to pass at this late stage, with Sam having to go back to the II for more! They would have him over a barrel!

Surely RKH and FIG have been told to “Take a Pi55 or get off the pot”.

RKH are doing their part, it’s not ideal and some believe it’s a very poor. However, we don’t know the full picture of the what’s and the why’s. I imagine the Unconditional and the Conditional are pretty much sewn up, they have put their feelers out and have had to sweeten the deal with the Warrants. They will be offering to folk putting up $5m+ they won’t be doing it piece meal. We should give our board all the ammunition they need to get this finally over the line, whether you agree with it or not, we should support them, they are privy to more information than we are.

I’m not going to comment anymore on this matters as I’m sure everyone is fed up with this.

I’m now looking towards the future with hopefully enough funds to get FID over the line, then it’s onwards and upwards. Fingers crossed 🤞

LTT

Space, the two largest shareholders will not take up the OO, so that should leave few more to go around.

This is the only way to unlock the basin and FID and be in a position to do it, without holding up Navitas with us scraping around for funds. The warrants seem like a giveaway, but think about it, Israeli investors are locking away $140m. I realise there is no risk to them, if FID goes through they have shares at 53p and if it goes above 80p they can take up their warrants, and if FID doesn’t happen by March 2026 they get their money back with interest.

However, such larger investors wouldn’t be investors if they just wanted to put the money in a bank account for 6months and earn interest! They are locking away cash and giving up other opportunities that may come along until March 2026.

I know we are expecting FID sooner, however if it gets pushed back, all that cash they have tied up, they might miss out on other deals. So maybe the warrants are kind of a sweetener to get them to tie up the cash, otherwise why would they do it?

The share price could lower after the cash is committed, FIG could stall the progress until December, Navitas could have to wait until Q1 2026 to have some production numbers on Shenandoah before getting cash. Then the share price drops back to 55p or lower on news of further delays to FID. How would you feel then? How would the investors feel, having tied up money to buy at a higher price than on the open market? The warrants would be a buffer against such a scenario. IMHO

It’s all about risk and reward. I know we all feel that FID is nailed on, but we have been close before only to have the rug pulled out from under us.

Just my two pence worth.

KR LTT

I’m with you Ovets on this. I will be voting for the conditional and the Open Offer. Sam has his reasons for asking for so much, maybe being over cautious, but in recent times he has done well for us getting OM insurance, doing the raise with warrants for us shareholders and now getting us to within spitting distance of FID. I don’t think he is steering us wrong now.

Imagine if he had done this sort of raise in Jan or Feb, we would have been diluted into oblivion! The share price has been walked up to do this placing, why is everyone so bitter about it? If we hadn’t popped into the 70p area, and this was done at 60p, the discount and the warrants wouldn’t seem so bad, but then the placement price might have been 43p.

I personally believe there is more to this placing than meets the eye, what it is I don’t know, but Sam is ensuring we are in a good position for any eventuality, and we should trust him on that. The lions share of the placing is going to Israeli institutions, they will know Gideon’s track record and will be unlikely to off/flip their shares and sell their warrants as soon at they break 80p IMHO. They will be in for the long haul, same as many on here, so I think we should join them for the ride.

However, you should do what you think is best for you, just be aware if this doesn’t go through, and we are struggling to pay our way and the insurance doesn’t get paid, or even it does, but everyone votes against the Conditional Placing and the OO, then the corner stone bank doesn’t like the look of our finances. What options do we have left? We hold up FID and then Gideon offers to increase our loans for 5% or more of the company? We come back cap in hand saying, “Please institutions, can we have some more?”.

We don’t want to be in a position like we were with PMO they were wholly dependent on UKEF, and when that didn’t come about and Covid hit, well we know the rest!

LTT

I’m actually surprised we are not a lot higher today. Navitas are going after the cash, RKH are getting the cash, the cornerstone bank must be happy on their end. With that in mind, we have to think will Navitas be successful, have they come up short in the past?

So time to place one’s bets, get in, get out or hold. I know what I am going to do.

LTT

I am insure where folk are getting this idea of further dilution from to sanction Phase 2 and beyond!

“The Board believes it could be possible to sanction the second phase of the Sea Lion Project relatively quickly after First Oil on Phase 1 depending on field performance, oil prices at the time, and various other project assumptions being positively met. Based on data contained in the senior debt lending case, it is currently envisaged that the second phase, and all subsequent phases, will be self-financing using excess cashflows once Phase 1 is on production.”

Happy,

I think also Alma is pretty clued up on this, but from memory it was said that the reason RKH and Nav have to have their share of funds in place is because they get drawn on first, so interest won’t start until they start dipping into that pot much later after FID.

LTT

WOW great news, but isn’t the extra funds for decomm costs, I think FIG we’re wanting this up front, hence the extra $25m, however I could be wrong. Either way Navitas are going for it, onwards and upwards, as a certain Pixar character would say, “To infinity and beyond!”.

Monday should be interesting!

LTT

JPDM,

I did just that with RKH back in the mists of time! I had quite a few Desire and thought I’d get a few RKH which were a lot cheaper at the time, the plan being that Desire would hit, because it was like shooting fish in a barrel, then by all accounts, RKH would be dragged up on Desires success!!!!!!!!! How could Desire miss everything and RKH come up with the goods. Just shows spreading the risk is a good thing to do.

For that reason alone, I have held on to a few Borders. Onwards and upwards.

LTT

Thanks r1234,

I should have paid more attention. I suppose our allocation is a bit of extra cream on the milk so they can do that at a later date without a problem.

For those who don’t have a live feed I just got offered 76p to sell!

LTT

So how does it work if Navitas FID at the end of October, are the new shares still issued along with the condition shares at the end of the year?

Sorry if it's a stupid question, but doesn;t that leave the share price open to manipulation, with FID done, the share price rises on the news, only to be hit back when the new shares are issued and the warrants are sold off, as surely we would be above 80p upon FID.

LTT

Seems like we are on the move also.

LTT

Unionjack,

well i'm not 100% sure, but we don't have a lot of II's involved in RKH and apart from Godders and his 4.5m shares left to him by his Dad, there won't be many holders over 10m+, so I would imagine Israeli II's have been building stakes just under 3% for this very moment.

Which I'm kinda happier about, wouldn't want 3 or 4 II's to get hold of 40% of the company to then sail us down the river at the first offer to buy us out.

LTT

With funding getting sorted with our cornerstone bank, our placing and no doubt Navitas working some financial magic, the only things that is going to hold back this train from steaming out of the station is FIG dragging their feet.

I do hope they are on the ball and don't fumble it into next year, hmmming and arrrring!

LTT

All I can imagine is, that Navitas are moving quicker than anticipated and they need RKH to have all the cash ready to go. I cannot see them FID-ing anywhere near the deadline of March 2026.

This way, they get the cash in the bank quick smart, no messing with EGM's, votes, etc. Still a bit more for us long suffering share holders would have been nice.

LTT