Member Info for longtermthinker

Would the ROI go through all this again pretty certain that they would lose?

I presume going after OM again resets everything, but all the paperwork, the arguments for and against will be known and with minor tweaks it would be just a matter of submitting.

I am not who posted it, but wasn’t there some new rules implemented that cases after a certain date had to be completed in 12-18 months? If so, the ROI could in 18months time be on the hook again for almost €300m with interest. Plus it will set a precedence so many more folk will try their arm.

Would it not be in ROI best interest to settle for say €100m before that happens. They know they are in the wrong, it was proven and they got away with it on a technicality, the fact we have someone willing to fund us again means almost certainly there is a high chance of the same outcome and we will win again in a much shorter timeframe. The ROI even secured lawyers to protect their overseas assets just in case.

Just a thought, that would explain the rise much better. Someone has got a sniff of ROI softening.

LTT

Hi ADG67,

Good to hear your RKH shares are coming good for you in your retirement. Just out of curiosity, what would be the trigger to sell half of your stake? As if it got to say 80p by say September, are you thinking to take out your stake and let the rest ride to come what may?

It’s not meant as a criticism, you can sell, buy, hold whatever as and when you choose. I’m just interested as my sell triggers keep changing, originally I was thinking to off 50% of my holding at 50p, but after the AGM, I thought we were heading lower and here we are at 58p on very little material news! If anything, after the AGM, with FID delayed till possibly Oct/Nov, first oil pushed out to 2028, Sam talking of $1.8m and the 25%+ dilution, I expected us to be clinging on to 40p by our fingertips!

It’s all very strange, hopefully something will give this coming week.

LTT

For the record I made some notes at the AGM,

There were 402 valid proxies received,

this represented a total of 108 million, shares,

which was just under 17% of the issued share capital of the company.

Make of that what you will, but that equates to 402 people having 270k share each owning 17% of the company. Of course some will have more, some a lot less. I even imagine there are folk who have forgotten about their share certificates in a bottom drawer who didn't even vote.

I don't know why, but I have a number in my head of 30k+ share holders from a couple of year ago, but I cannot think where I read it. Suppose there will be a lot less now, many having sold into this rise, but I imagine the higher we rise, there will be less and less sellers, thinking this is going to be £1+ on FID.

Let's see what tomorrow brings.

LTT

Mirasol,

Why do you think FIG would want a bigger player taking out RKH?

Once RKH reach first oil they will be able to pay their way, whilst paying off the loans, a bigger player might be more demanding and it would cause a paperwork headache sorting everything out, plus as has been said, any buyer would lose all the loans and will have to pay the tax owed. But as Sam would say, “Never say never!”

But I am open to your reasoning of why FIG would want a larger outfit to take over from RKH now or in the never future.

LTT

I was thinking along the lines of Navitas pony up 12% and RKH 3%. 15% farmin would be a good amount for anyone and it would cost them a fair few bob as all the work is done all bar the shouting. Long lead items sorted, cash being sorted, FPSO sorted, FIG up to speed, etc, etc. What someone have to pay? $450m for the privilege? It would give RKH $90m and with the reduction in the amounts Navitas and RKH need to FID, we would easily have enough cash and then some.

LTT

"Possible sources of funds for the currently unknown Rockhopper project equity requirement include but are not limited to: Any proceeds from

the monetisation of the Ombrina Mare arbitration, any payout under the insurance policy put in place to cover the annulment outcome, balance sheet cash, a convertible issue or other mezzanine finance instrument, an equity issue or a farm out. In the event funding was necessary and not achievable then the Group could not sanction the project."

The above is from the annual report.

So although they have no intention of reducing our 35% , there it is in B&W, it's down as a option, maybe not a first choice, however if there deal was too good to be overlook and it sorted out our FID moneys, i'd be happy to give up 2%or 3% if it kept us going to first oil without dilution.

LTT

Could it be a partner, coming in for 23%, 20% from Navitas and 3% from us, for which we would be handsomely rewarded, thus being able to pay out way to FID, with cash to spare for any eventuality, such as drilling Isobel whilst the spaghetti is fixed to the sea bed in a couple of years time!

;-)

Lets face it, as SpaceHoppa has so clearly pointed out, "Rock needing possibly £45/£50m to pay for FID, that's assuming the insurance payment comes in, we should by rights have stayed in the 40's, not risen to high 50's."

So why the rise and staying up into the close as we did yesterday? Something is a foot, and it's more than 12inches!

My money is on a partner, if we are up above 60p on Monday without news/RNS, then it's possibly a BIG partner, someone with cash and clout in equal measure.

Have a good weekend everyone.

LTT

All I can think that's happening is, there are a load of investors who are tightly holding on to their shares for FID and/Or first oil in 2028, so anyone wanting in, can only do so by paying higher and higher prices, thus increasing the bid to entice more and more sellers.

Even with the risks of dilution coming due to the insurance policy result not known, there are still buyers.

Let's face it, why wouldn't they, particularly Israel investors, they will see putting money in RKH, better that putting it in the bank or bonds. As part of their balanced portfolio I should add, they wouldn't be putting all their eggs in the RKH basket, but as FID gets nearer, there is only one way this can go.

LTT

If it's on the back of receiving the insurance payout, it's only worth approx 4p a share. Why is there such volume and pretty big busy for just 4p which is already priced in, and surpassed since the AGM?

It's all very strange, unless it's more to do with first oil on Shenandoah which could be flowing as we speak, and we are just waiting for Beacon to put some numbers on it.

Maybe that will be the first in a long line of dominoes that are just waiting to topple, they are just waiting on that first nudge.

Still I'm no complaining.

I wouldn't want to be out over this weekend, that's for sure!

;-)

LTT

We are currently heading up and this is on the back of an AGM where Sam basically said we should get the insurance, but ………..! Sam also said we are heading for dilution, he didn’t give numbers but pointed to recent presentation that gave example of a $1.8B scenario where we would be on the hook for $95m. If the insurance doesn’t pay out, well you can do the math, but giving us some cash leftover to get us to first oil, we were possibly looking at 25% to 35%.

So why is the share price rising?

A very confused LTT

However, as I say, with the above known and we are still rising, on FID we will spike to £1+ IHMO.

"This new phase marks a critical step forward as we support our client in progressing toward final investment decision," said Aragon, which is a subsidiary of Singapore-based offshore and marine giant Seatrium.

Aragon added that it is advancing procurement processes for long lead items to award readiness, and performing targeted engineering activities aimed at enhancing the FEED package.

It is all still moving towards an FID, maybe the buying yesterday was the long lead item suppliers buying a few!

;-)

LTT

Https://www.upstreamonline.com/rigs-and-vessels/redeployment-of-north-sea-fpso-moves-to-the-next-phase/2-1-1842060?utm_campaign=2025-07-04T06%3A46%3A00.549Z&utm_content=%5Bnews%2C+western_europe%2C+rigs_and_vessels%2C+fpso%2C+uK%2C+uk%2C+FPSO%2C+fPSO%2C+r_searancke%2C+europe%2C+field_development%5D&utm_medium=email&utm_source=alert&utm_term=%5BTOPIC%2C+AUTHOR%5D

Just arrived in my in box this morning.

LTT

What! Like Argos, no thanks. We need a partner or a buyout nothing in between.

LTT

Sorry r1234,

yes it could happen, someone swoops in for Borders, but not before FID on Sea Lion, any potential suitor will want confirmation of boots on the ground before committing IMHO.

With a MC of roughly £55m, any partner is either going to take a hefty slice or take them out. £100m -£150m could do it, at the higher end of £150m, the larger share holders could take up their 10p warrants and swing the vote for 17p I think, the large shareholders would make a tidy some now, rather than wait until the next decade to have a chance to drill.

I suppose someone could take 80% of Borders for a free carry on one well and a well test to firm up the numbers on Darwin, which would possibly cost the same amount to buy them out, this might be the preferred choice for FIG, to have some UK players in the mix, but it all comes down to who the suitor is, how big a hitter they are and can they commit to drilling. FIG have enough on their plates right now and for the foreseeable.

However, saying all the above, stranger things have happened as we are well aware. For the record, I still have a few Borders for any of the above scenarios should they pan out, but I have a very low average, I don't think I would be a buyer at this moment in time.

LTT

R1234,

how and why would RKH farm into Borders? They don't have the cash and nothing is going to happen drill wise with Borders until 2028/29 at the earliest IMHO. Even Sam said they were laser focussed on Sea Lion and FID, and wouldn't be distracted.

If and its a BIG IF, Navitas were interested in Borders, they might take them out, as I have said before, with some cash from Navitas and some shares in RKH (to give some Borders some skin in the game with Sea Lion getting FID), they could do a 65/35 split and RKH does the same with their southern acreage next to Borders, so they sew up all the currently available acreage until after first oil on Sea Lion and maybe entice a bigger player into the fold to get 25% or the North and South basins in their entirety.

However, I cannot see that happening now, not with RKH losing the annulment and only getting (fingers crossed) 31m euros insurance payout. They are going to have to dilute us to the tune of 20%-30% just to get enough cash in to pay our share and some cash to spare to get us to first oil, so why would Sam dilute further to take on acreage that is a decade away from first oil? Plus RKH and Navitas have more than enough to go at with step out wells on Sea Lion and exploration/appraisals on Isobel and Elaine.

64 wells to crack on with in the Northern acreage over 5 phases on Sea Lion, any slight down time, whilst they put "some spaghetti on the sea bed", Sam's words not mine, they may get the rig down to Isobel. But Darwin, for an appraisal/exploration/well test that could cost $100m+, I cannot see it, and this is presuming they could sue the same rig!

No, I am afraid any tie-up is highly unlikely between Border/Navitas/RKH, but then as Sam does say, "Never say Never!"

LTT

Low volume and yet the price is making strides higher, could a big buyer be in the wings and the MM's are having to raise the Bid higher and higher to fill the order?

LTT

Nice one Thenorseman, I have to agree, appetite is bouncing back for fossil fuel investment. I think the bank, with Sam saying everyone in the room would have heard of it, will most likely be either JPMorgan or possibly Société Généralem as didn't they sort out Shenandoah? SMBC Group although a possiblity, wouldn't be a bank everyone would have heard of, not for the financing of large oil projects anyway.

So JP or Société Généralem it is then!

;-)

LTT

Interesting,

"13. Significant Risks

13.1 The omission to revoke the Suspension Notice modification, allows seven blocks and one part block in Quadrant 25 open to receive applications for licensing at a time when FIG are not advertising the invitation of applications and may cause confusion.

13.2 The Sea Lion project is provoking interest in the Falkland Islands oil acreage internationally and in the media, therefore it would be advisable to correct this omission swiftly. REDACTED

13.3 This would need to be revoked ahead of any future licensing campaigns to ensure this can be applied to the whole licensing area."

"International interest", and they are not allowing any more licensing until after Sea Lion, so anyone interesting has but 3 options;

1. Wait until Sea Lion is up and running late 2027 but more likely 2028+.

2. Farm-in post FID.

3. Come onboard as a partner prior to FID.

My money is on 3, but most likely it will be 2. but i'm ok with either.

LTT

Navitas did say in there investors video presentation in March I think it was, that they flowed the first two wells into a tanker and the flow rates were better than they predicted. Did ChatGPT take than into account, and that the wells are high pressure, which was one of the reasons Shenandoah was overlooked for so long.

Stills it good to be aware of the risks.

LTT

Thank you as always Mogger, seems to be a lot of work going on for nothing to happen until 2030 if at all!

It really shows that despite PMO’s best efforts, they were nowhere near FID in 2017/18/19. They were in a dream world! Navitas have been on the ball from the start and most importantly they have been making sure FIG were up to speed also.

LTT