Member Info for longtermthinker

Of course I don't know why the are wasting their time making a New PDF in English, bit of a waste of time if funding cannot be sourced! Sorry if this has been posted already, puts first oil an Shenandoah as the end of June, and first oil on Sea Lion only slipping 1Q into 2028. All looks good to me.

https://www.navitaspet.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Navitas-Presentation-June-2025-ENG.pdf

LTT

I think Borgo/BrightSpot is implying that we will hear about first oil mid June, then next probably a partner most likely an oil trader/investment vehicle and then FID.

LTT

Yes, it makes sense to get a couple of months production in. As I said earlier, they have said H2 not Q4, which bodes well.

Also, and this is IMHO only, I don’t thing it’s the funding that’s an issue, yes they will be doing due diligence, but the hold up is due to whether a partner, either a mid cap, major or an oil trader is coming onboard. That will change what funds are required for all involved.

LTT

Oscar,

How can you say that, Navitas are not considering FID until H2 of 2025. Before FID the bank will have to do due diligence, the FIG tax we owe will have to be sorted plus Navitas will have to tell us how much we need to pony up before any issue can be announced.

All the above will take months, no weeks, so plenty of time for the insurance to come in IMHO. Even if first oil happened on Shenandoah next week, Navitas will not announce FID. They would need to announce whether a not a partner is coming into the fold. If so our funding may be negligible.

LTT

The Island Performer is now on site. Near the FPS, there are two support Tugs, plus one has just left and another is just arriving, so activity is going full throttle on Shenandoah, we could get news of first oil next week or the week after with some fingers and toes crossed.

They seem to be taking it steady and being thorough, so hopefully no issues, glitches or snags to resolve, but then with Beacon Offshore being a private company, they don't have to announce anything until it's a done deal, so any issues we wouldn't know about until after the fact.

Onwards and upwards.

LTT

GetOnYerBike,

I think Sam has options and it depends on the amount.

For example, if we needed say £25m, then I don't see Sam going through the hassle of doing an offer to existing share holders, it's roughly 50m shares depending on the share price. I would expect the share price to be a good bit higher with Navitas asking for funds to FID Sea Lion, we might be anywhere between 50p and 75p at such a time, as FID on Sea Lion opens up the whole basin, we cannot underestimate the reaction to that once the media gets behind it. Headlines such as, "15 years in the making, now Falklands Islanders are to be Rich Beyond The Dream of Avarice!" and similar.

So, if Sam needed the cash quickly it would be better and sensible to issue 50m shares to raise the £25m two II's get 25m each. They would jump at the chance with FID in the bag, if they got them for 50p, they could not doubt sell into the FID news and ensuing further news, such as FPSO contract being signed, long lead items confirmed, rig booking, etc. They could easily just flip them for a tasty 20%+ gain in a matter of weeks, if not days. What's not to like.

If more is needed, unlikely IMHO, but if we did, then maybe a shared issue with II's and PI's getting an equal share, to appease the masses.

A question for the AGM me thinks.

LTT

Neillius,

I cannot imagine RKH doing a placing until we know what is our cash requirement. Sam would be foolish to do a fund raise, then Navita comes in with the numbers and we need $15m more or $15m less.

We have a buffer of time, first oil hasn’t happened on Shenandoah yet, a partner hasn’t been announced and we had no idea what our percentage to pony up will be. It seems FID is planned for maybe August/Sept, only because they have said 2nd half of the year, they haven’t said Q4. So they will get a good month or two of production in on Shenandoah, showing everything is working smoothly. This also gives time for our insurance policy to get paid and then we have approx $50m+ in the war chest.

Any fund raise would be minimal, to pay our way and give us some wiggle room to tide us over to first oil. Once Navitas tells us how much we need, it’s almost certain FID is coming and the share price will reflect that, so any raise or issue to II’s would be small. IMHO

So the simple answer is we have to wait and see, maybe a small fund raise, but if a partner comes onboard, we would have less to put in the kitty and may not have anything to raise.

Hope that helps

LTT

Another bit of news with regards to Shenandoah, the Island Performer is on route to WR52, which is Shenandoah, it is a Well Stimulation Vessel, make of that what you will.

LTT

The Island Victory has sailed into the sunset, but has been replaced by the Ross Candies IMR another Inspection, Maintenance and Repair vessel.

Everything is all go on Shenandoah, looking forward to Gideons statement saying,

"I am pleased to announce that first oil has started on Shenandoah. Now let's crack on with the Next Big Thing!"

LTT

Or maybe it’s a window of opportunity to sell some for tax reasons due in July because of the recent news coming out. Maybe later in the month she might not be allowed. People sell for many reasons, not just because they see trouble ahead or want to cash in before a drop further. If she thought that, she again could get into trouble for insider trading if news came out that tanked the share price. Just a thought.

LTT

Bloo, you could be right, so it would be out of RKH hands, maybe they need to chat with them about still being in the frame for the 2nd tranche payment should they resubmit win the claim in the next 1-2 years.

LTT

A little update, the Island Victory seems to have completed whatever it was doing and is heading away, news on first oil next week ?

LTT

Ooooph, can you imagine them making that today!!!!!!!!!!! All male testosterone filled plane apart from stewardesses, and the final shot of the woman hanging out the washing!!!!!!

How times have changed, for the better I should add!

Anyway it's good to see us holding up well. No doubt we will head further north on news that the insurance claim is approved and heading into the bank, also first oil on Shenandoah which is getting closer and closer with Navitas hovering around all time highs.

I wonder what will happen with OM? Will RKH resubmit on a no win/no fee again. Harbour the funders got paid off and made some money, so why not pony up the cash to do it all over again, a 2nd bite of the cherry, only this time all the paperwork has been prepared, they know the questions ROI will fire at them and the new rules are apparently to turn the results around in 12 months, it has to be worth another shot! With 190m euros up for grabs!

Maybe Sam could even sell OM outright for say 34m euros, then with the insurance we get the 65m we were expecting and the purchaser gets the whole 190m. It has to be worth it to someone, what will the legal cost be to submit it all again £15m tops? With all the arguments and documents already prepared, it would be crazy not to try!

LTT

Morning donalb,

Sorry for the delay in getting back to you, been reading through the BB catching up, although made a lot easier with a few folk being in the DustyBin LOL !

www.vesselfinder.com

Is the tracking site I use now, the marine website was a bit glitchy and didn’t always show the ships. On vessel finder the Track function is most interesting, especially on the Island Victory which has been very busy.

LTT

Hi donalb,

The Deepwater Atlas and the Island Victory are still on site and BIG P, a passenger ship could very well be doing a crew change on the Deepwater and the FPS as it visits a few spots on a trip around the Gulf.

LTT

I'm not so sure about that Oscar, shouldn't the insurance broker have done due diligence? It's not like taking out car insurance and it turns out you hadn't told them you had an accident 2 years ago, that you didn't mention on the form, so they void the claim. They asked for a £4m fees to insure against the loss, they will have had a team looking into everything before taking on such a risk.

Anyway, we will find out soon enough, the AGM will be very interesting if we don't hear anything before.

Meanwhile Navitas is currently up another 2.5+% preparing for first oil.

LTT

Oscar, how is it Sam job to check his history, both sides apparently agreed to him being part of this at the beginning. They should have checked, not Sam.

I cannot see how the insurance can get out of paying, I cannot believe there was a clause that stated, “Should the annulment go against RKH due to priors coming to light, we will not be obliged to pay out”. They took the £4m on what everyone thought was a sure bet, it just didn’t pay off in this instance. You win some you lose some.

LTT

I think the funder will go after Italy and the ISCID, they have bought OM from RKH which has been thrown out on a technicality which has nothing to do with actual case as that was a unanimous decision. They are not going to take it on the chin, watch this space, the fireworks will be fun to watch now we are no longer involved.

LTT

WOW does this not open a can of worms, every case that Poncet is currently working on, and historically could be looked into again, or the folk who lost could sue the ISCID!

Crazy times, we are best off out of it and it may work in our favor as line has been drawn under it, we have no involvement in any lawsuits or cases that arise from this situation.

LTT

Yes DEM,

you reached for the £20 but it turned out to be a £10, but if you hadn't seen it, you would not have anything!

We haven't lost 65m Euros, we have actually gained 31m. Thanks great news going forward to FID.

LTT