Member Info for longtermthinker

And why Navitas call it “The Next Big Thing”.

If we get to 60-70p on Shenandoah reaching first oil, funding news and OM, I can see us getting over £1+ on FID.

LTT

Red,

Can I ask why you are here, you seem very vocal with negativity towards Borders, without posting much anywhere else, having only recently set up an account with LSE, where were you the last couple of years when Borders and RKH were on their knees, why shout with negativity now as the shares rise. Me thinks thou does protest too much!

But each to their own, remember the trend is your friend and we get closer and closer to Navitas sorting funding and FID, Borders will also rise.

LTT

But why would they pick on Navitas and RKH, they aren’t even producing yet, and I wouldn’t want to pick a fight with Beacons backers!

I think we are some way off being in the cross hairs of a cyber attack. It’s hardly going to effect Israel a cyber attack on RKH Salisbury office! Now if they were to go after the Hobnob factory, that would be calamitous!

LOL

LTT

Makes me wonder in RKH might allow 3-5% to go to a partner in return for some cash or a carry on Isobel .

Interesting times are ahead.

LTT

Phil164,

I’m in the same boat, but I’m liking this rise, love it or hate it, Borders and RKH’s futures are intertwined. I think that is what’s causing this rise, as RKH gets closer to funding and FID, Borders edges closer to getting a farm-in or a buy-out. I feel this is what they are waiting for, the confirmation of boots hitting the ground at some point in the future, then it will be game on.

Not sure what that future will look like, but either way, something is coming and it should be good for all.

LTT

That’s right r1234, basically Navitas will be booking rig on a 5 years + contract. Once is starts down there, it might never come back! Particularly with another 5 years + possibly on Isobel.

So thinking about it, once the FPSO is connected up and oil is flowing, the cash coming in will enable a 2nd rig to start on Isobel as it would just make more sense. Two rigs in the north basin would be manageable for boat and chopper cover and if Borders has a partner at that time, the Isobel rig could head down to Darwin on down time if they have a partner.

LTT

Good evening SpaceHoppa,

I am also in town with a fellow RKH friend, although we are more central, may regret that on the day of the AGM when you can just roll out of bed, and roll into the venue! LOL. But yes, it would be good to meet on the evening before. Will think about which pub nearer the time, as I am not sure what time I will arrive on the 26th.

With regards getting into the AGM, the past couple of years I have rocked up without anything and been signed in as a guest, although unable to vote. I might get more prepared this year because, as you say, it might be well attended and they may not allow me in without proof!

LTT

Ralph, as much as I like the sound of £1, here we are at 55p with not FID, no OM, no rig or FPSO booked.

If we look at how Navitas have been increased their unit price over the time since FID getting to first oil, even a rise of half of that up to 2028 would give us a share price of multiples of today. I can see £1 by the end of the year, so a take out offer of £1.50+ would be more desirable. But who knows what will happen upon funding/FID.

I do hope we can hang on until first oil, but I feel we will be ripe for the picking upon FID, there will be a lot of players looking to fasttrack to producing assets rather than go through the whole process of shooting 3D, drilling wildcats, appraisal etc, costing billions, whereas they could buy 35% of a FID'd 1B barrel asset with incredible upside for say $2.5B+. I might be up for that!

LTT

I cannot understand the price heading up on such relatively low volume.

It might just be that folk have a tighter grip on their shares forcing the Bid higher and higher with OM possible at any time. Navitas only last week were talking about the next big thing and being on track for Sea Lion FID mid 2025 and of course Shenandoah having first oil at the end of May ;-) but possibly in June!

The interesting thing is Borders heading up at the same time, could it be someone is getting a sniff of Navitas going for funding and a rising tide lifts all boats. Or maybe even folk seeing RKH as running out of steam and Borders are a cheap way to get a hefty gain on Funding/FID news.

Either way, I am a happy chappy and very much looking forward to the AGM and what the rest of May and June will bring.

LTT

Borderstothemoon,

I am also enjoying the rise in Borders, but I will most likely be selling after the pump towards FID if there is no partnership news. The simple reason is Borders may have a blast upwards on RKH coat tails, but what then, the realisation sets in that even with a partner with cash, they are 3 to 5 years away from first oil, there is no way they can sort a FDP, EIS all the long lead items, and get a rig and an FPSO sorted before 2030. And that is even if FIG could managed and allow two rigs drilling. They just wouldn't have the resources to cope with it at this moment in time, and not for a number of years. IMHO

As for this delusion that Borders own 100% for their acreage, how much are they going to keep. Look at RKH, they had to give up 65% to get Navitas to come onboard and all they are getting is loans they will have to pay back. Argos did a deal way back when, that from memory gave them a 10% royalty and now they have been taken out, gone private with shareholders locked in until who knows when! Even Harry said the days of getting large amounts of cash to farm-in are long gone. So how much will Borders have to give up for a loan to drill Darwin? How much dilution will it take to fund their share of development costs? They don't have an OM payout waiting in the wings!

Sorry for the off topic. Don't get me wrong I would love Borders to go to the moon and be 25p-50p a share, I really would, but sometimes you have to take a reality pill and realise they are way, way behind the curves with regards to RKH.

LTT

Oooops! Of course I meant June! DOH!

I’m not trying to get out of buying those pints, honest!

LOL

LTT

Morning SpaceHoppa,

Just a heads up, I have booked a night in Salisbury on the 26th of July, the evening before the AGM, so if you are about, we can meet up and I can get those 2 pints in for you (if first oil on Shenandoah happens after the 31st of May at 23:59:59).

;-)

And if we by some miracle got FID prior to the AGM I’ll upgrade you to Champagne (not pints of though!)

For the person who asked what happens and Alma kindly responded, the main reason I go to the AGM is to have a chat and listen to the directors before and after the formalities. You can ask questions one to one, of course you cannot get all the answers you might want, but still want is said and not said can be enlightening.

LTT

WOW everything is on the up today, RKH, Borders and Navitas. Of course is could be sentiment in general, everything is going positive due to US and China making a deal, but it is all boding well.

If Navitas are serious about FID-ing Sea Lion, "The Next Big Thing", by mid year, they will have to start handing around the hat sooner rather than later. They are maybe waiting for Shenandoah to come online in early June showing they have done it and thus put out feelers into the market on the back of that high. I suppose we will just have to wait and see, but as we barrel through May towards June, things are getting exciting to say the least, particularly with RKH still heading up on no real news and now Borders also up on our coat tails.

Me thinks interesting times are ahead and the final outcome will be nothing like we imagine!

LTT

Thanks ZYX098,

that makes a lot of sense. Maybe the rig is coming from South Africa then and staying for quite some time! As you say, a semi-sub that is not too long in the tooth would be sensible particular after the fiasco last time! Even if Borders don't initially get a slot or a partner onboard, they will no doubt be ramped up with talk of riches Beyond the Dreams of Avarice, but taking a reality pill it is unlikely Borders will drill this side of 2030.

I'm not saying it's impossible, who knows what the future has in store for the Falklands. With Navitas FID-ing, getting boots on the ground and a rig on it's way back end of 2026 (although I hope sooner), there could be many suitors more inclined to look at Borders and they may be able to get a rig slot after the 6 producing wells are finished and the FPSO is being connected up, but even so, that would be 2028 at the soonest and I am not sure if RKH will be around at that time.

LTT

I cannot understand by MD/Garbled would choose RKH or Borders to short, there are loads of companies Harbour being one of many that would have been worth a short on if you were so inclined, but as we have seen Trump can spin on a dime and as we have seen, everything is up due to him tentatively talking of a deal with China.

I have MD/Topslice Ripley/Cheesey on ignore, so have no idea whether they are in, out or shorting all about, but in these volatile times it’s a risky business. Better to do your own thing and be happy and walk away, ramping or deramping for your own ends is pretty sad IMHO.

LTT

That is a lovely idea hereandnow, and if they had acreage in the North basin it might be a goer, however, it's been discussed many times, the North basin needs a 4th Gen semi-sub, the Southern basin needs a 5th/6th Gen deep water semi-sub which from memory are anything from $50k to $100k "PER DAY" more expensive.

So what are the cost saving to Navitas on getting a higher spec'd rig on a 60+ well development drilling campaign? Booking the rig for 5+ years, why would they pay for an overpriced, overs spec'd rig to allow Borders to save money on their 2 well campaign and share the mob costs? With costs having increased from $1.2B to $1.4B, how could they justify over paying for the rig?

I hypothesised previously that if Navitas were to take out Borders/farm-in, they could get a higher spec'd rig from Africa, bring it down, do a couple of wells on Isobel which would need a heavy duty rig due to high pressure, then do one on Darwin West with maybe a flow test to see what's there; then head back to the north to start development drilling; after the 6 wells and the FPSO hook-up, it heads away and a 4th Gen semi takes it's place for the next 5 years. But that is only a fantasy on my part.

The bottom line is, there is very little chance of Navitas, out of the kindness of their heart, booking a higher spec'd rig than necessary, just so Borders and their partner can save money. There is no benefit for them at all.

LTT

Good afternoon everyone, hope you have been enjoying the weekend. Just popped in to catch up on a few messages and I particularly like this bit;

"Navitas serves as the operator and holds 65% ownership. This project will offer us a tremendous running room with over 1 billion barrels of proven oil equivalent, plus further exploration potential."

They say "further exploration potential", not further appraisal potential, or tie back potential or near by development potential. That sounds very good to me, it means as operator they are thinking about the near term and the longer term, a bit like Beacon with Shenandoah, sanctioning phase2 and getting ready to sanction Shenandoah South, all before they have got to first oil.

Now, could they possibly be looking at getting a rig down early to spud a couple of wells on Isobel to confirm what they have there, so it can be worked up by Sean Ramsey ready for the next, next big thing? it would make a lot of sense and save waiting until who knows when to have a free rig slot/break from development drilling. It would also allow then to plan what size of FPSO they would need to get Isobel up and running.

Either way, we are in for an exciting end of May and early June.

LTT

P.S. Cheesemaster, good luck with your trading in and out and your followers, but I'm afraid I have added you to the dusty bin, I cannot do with folk whom are full of their own self-importance.

Hhhhhhmmmmm 🤔 I’m not so sure about that.

Of course Sam has made some mistakes, haven’t we all, if I’d sold at £5 a share and bought bitcoin and held them until now I’d be a multimillionaire!

I think I read somewhere that if you can get 3 rights right in a row, you can be a winner. Well Sam has hung on with OM, and that seems to be coming good, he signed a deal with Navitas despite Harbour walking away. They are about to sign an FID that will change RKH’s and the Falklands for ever making them possibly the richest people on the planet ( just wait till that news makes the headlines). Opening up a new oil province, and having 35% of it. If that happens Sam and RKH will change some many lives.

As Topdrive says, we are not just FID-ing Sea Lion, we are opening up a new oil province, imagine owning 35% of Guyana’s oil province as the start of drilling, or the North Sea or any basin around the world. It’s almost impossible to fathom.

But that is where we are at, 900m + on Sea Lion, Isobel yet to be confirmed but could be similar or double the size. As Oil Brat used to say, no discovery is in isolation, and discoveries only get larger as you start to drill.

LTT

OilTraded,

It won’t be like that this time I’m afraid, they are not drilling exploration wells, they will be drilling producers, they might say they are spudding but they might not as well, as the plan will be all laid out. Start drilling on XX date, finish the first 6, connect up the FPSO, then continue drilling the next 55+.

Now if they planned a well on Isobel, then we are off to the races for sure. Otherwise the big news to come is OM, Funding, FID, FPSO being released for refit and maybe Rig contracted to started on XX date.

It’s all looking good though. ☺️👍

LTT

Seems to me that the market is waking up to the potential here, maybe the poster who said the US opening causing a boost is correct. Deals will be getting done in the US, also if BrightSpot is hearing the jungle drums beating, there must be a load more folk in the know who are giving the nod here and there to friends and family, not insider dealing, I'm not implying that, but just if they knew a contract was all but signed on a rig/tugs/construction projects etc, you might let slip that you were heading to the Falklands later in the year and people can easily put two and two together. Especially now with the internet, you could hear a snippet, buy the time you have sat in the car you would have searched on your phone, you can even do a trade before you have started the engine, not like the days when I read about Desire and RKH in the financial section of the Daily Mail all those years ago!!!!!!!!

Even Borders is having a spurt north.

So let's face it, if Navitas seriously want to FID this mid year, they will have to start rattling the tin sooner rather than later. Even with vendor finance, oil trader cash, a bridging loan against Shenandoah, and a possibly partner coming on board, they will still have to raise some cash, so even though they don't have to announce and get permission from unit holders, they will at some point have to tell RKH what they are on the hook for. They will have to put out feelers on who is interested in taking the bonds. At some point the cat will be out of the bag and it seems to be getting close now.

I wouldn't want to be out short/out for the weekend!

LTT

P.S. I am not going crazy, I was channeling my inner Zoolander in my response to Paul, but it seems to have gone over a few peoples heads. "I'll get my coat!" (A reference to the Fast Show).