Member Info for longtermthinker

I love the picture in that article of the rig and tanker, it's looks like it was created in Minecraft! LOL, now you would just AI it and stick a photorealistic image in. How times have changed.

"Project sanction is anticipated in the second quarter of 2015 with first oil pencilled in for between three and a half or four years later – mean 2019 is now the more likely onstream date, slightly later than originally envisaged."

Out by a decade, and here we are with more oil, bigger development and a cheaper price! Who would have thought it, a 2nd bite of the cherry. I never thought we'd be this close to FID again!

LTT

The FPS is now pretty must on site, it’s roughly 2-3 miles to the South East of the Deepwater Atlas. I’m am insured if the drillship has moved so the FPS can be positioned over Shenandoah or it’s waiting for the drillship to move, but either way there should be some news this week from Beacon saying the FPS has arrived, the anchor handlers are locking it down and there will be XX weeks/months of connecting/commisioning/testing and first oil is on schedule for June 2025. 🤞

I realise it’s not 100% RKH related, but as our future is pretty much reliant on Shenandoah getting to first oil, it’s good to be aware of progress on that front. I am pretty sure there are lots of wheels in motion behind the scenes waiting for that moment, and then all the dominoes will start to fall, we just need that first push and I think it might come from Shenandoah first oil, but it could be OM also. We will just have to wait and see.

LTT

Hi Strichen_Loon,

welcome back to RKH, I think you will do alright out of Rocky, after all, you must be up 15%+ already if you bought around 40p!

I was in Hurricane too until Prax bought them out. The irony is, the Aoka Mizu that is currently working on the Lancaster Field, Hurricanes old development, is earmarked for the Sea Lion development. With a bit of luck, later this year, Navitas will sign on the dotted line and the Aoka will run down it's 6 month remaining contract, to then head off for a refit, then sometime in 2027, it will tootle down to the Falklands ready for first oil on Sea Lion.

As for using a floating platform, the Aoka Mizu is actually a refitted oil tanker, so if moves around under it's own steam and has been working the Lancaster Field since 2019 without, to my knowledge any significant issue or downtime. So after it's scrub and brush-up, is should be good for another 5 year minimum, although the way Navitas seem to be planning things, it may be swapped out for a bigger one within 4 years to up production to 150k barrels per day.

Let's see what next week holds after two days of strong finishes, also we are into April which is Q4 for Falklands financial year, and they are planning for FID in Q4. Of course things can slip, but fingers crossed Navitas can get this over the line, what a momentous moment that would be. The press coverage alone would got ballistic!

Also looking on Marine Traffic, the FPS is coming in from the North East to the Deepwater Atlas' position, about 10-15km away. Seems like they cruised up, past and turned around and are now heading South West. News next week from Beacon?

LTT

Well I didn't expect it to close up again, I was pretty certain it would fall back to 43p or lower, but two days of strength into the close, bodes well for Monday.

NastyNick, you might just get your 50p on Monday and join SpaceHoppa in the hall of fame for share price predicting prowess!

Topdrive also seems to be on top of things with regards the FPS, something is happening for sure, the Ocean Sun is heading towards the Deepwater Atlas at 3kn so we could get some news from Beacon on Monday saying the Deepwater Atlas has finished drilling and the Shenandoah FPS has arrived.

The weather is going to be lovely this weekend, so enjoy and be smug it the knowlegde that you are not out over the weekend!

;-)

LTT

LOL, you've got my number BB3 ;-)

But not really, it's just one of those physiological barriers that folk gravitate to for one reason or another. I myself was thinking like that, when we were at 36p I thought, if it gets to 50p, I'll sell, but without news, as we head higher, why should I stick to an arbitrary number! Why not 48p, why not 53p?

So, i'm going to hang on till we have some further visibility, and if nothing else, sounds like we will have a nice rise after the 6th of April, so may sell into that!

Afraid I haven't got the spare cash to take up my 2025/26 ISA allowance, but then, I have plenty of RKH shares already in my ISA so I'm happy to keep the powder dry on my main holding till first oil or take-over, which ever comes first.

LTT

I think as mentioned, 50p might be a sticking point, I was thinking to sell the wife’s RKH in her ISA at 50p, but without any news, I’m thinking to hang on to them till OM and maybe even FID. Bit risky I know as FID funding needs sign off apparently, and could get knocked into Q4 because of it, but till 50p without news!

However there will be many who have been waiting for 50p and will sell some at that juncture.

LTT

I know it’s a long shot Tincan, but Navitas and RKH could take out Borders for a cash/share offer and then Navitas and RKH tie up all the southern acreage into a 65/35 split (RKH putting its southern acreage into the mix). Then they can entice a heavy hitting into the fold, give them 30% of North AND South.

Borders keep some skin in the game with near term upside with Sea Lion and longer term keeping a stake in Darwin and the southern acreage that the partner would be up for developing.

But who knows what Harry has in store for us, one thing is for sure, he is not sitting on his laurels for the next 5 years.

LTT

Plus the Ocean Sun, which I believe is one of the tugs pulling the FPS is about 40km to the southwest of the Deepwater Atlas, so they must be getting close to it on station. Surely Beacon will release some news of its arrival and give some indication of what happens next 🤔

Either way, still pinching myself that we are heading to NastyNicks 50p by the end of the month on no real, substantial news.

LTT

It bodes well that we are holding up on a down day on the markets and with Trump throwing around his tariffs!

Could we finish the day where we ended yesterday?

Either way, it's a good sign.

LTT

Phil, I'd see 15p-20p as selling us down the river, it gives the boys who purchased in the recent funding a chance to cash in their warrants at 10p, thus getting a 50%-100% gain on their warrants and a 200% gain from their purchase price.

Don't get me wrong, from my purchase price I would do ok from such an offer, I'd just feel sorry for those whom have bought at higher prices or have higher averages to break even. It would be a real shame for them, still it would be better than what happened to Argos. JHI bought them and they haven't updated their media page since June 2021 and cannot find any mention of the Falklands on their website (although I haven't done a deep dive). Can't see how they are going to get involved with Navitas and RKH to share a rig/support/services. Maybe after FID they will start banging the drum as they did in Guyana, about the acreage next door.

LTT

A take out anywhere between 25p-50p and I will be piling back into RKH.

It seems the broker change could be the signal for a deal or take-over, or an outright takeover IMHO, otherwise we would be lucky to keep 25% on a deal similar to RKH. After all, all we have is an exploration well and 3D, no appraisal and feed back costs of $1B to sweeten the deal. We might get carry on a couple of exploration wells, but then we would have to find the cash for our share of development costs. However if that came to pass, and a deal was in the offing, I'm pretty sure we would have a much higher share price and thus a lot less dilution.

My money is on a buy-out though, someone taking everything. I would prefer not, but i'm resided to the fact it is the most likely outcome, just hope Harry doesn't sell us down the river!

LTT

Hi Topdrive, I realise BrightSpot is a bit of a jackanory type, sometimes there are elements of truth, but on the whole it's story time. I just wanted to call him out, as the signals from Navitas are at odds with what he is implying IMHO. A little bit of knowledge without the whole picture can be quite dangerous as has been proven in the past!

Suppose we will see in the next space of the next 3 months.

LTT

So BrightSpot, are you saying it will take 2 month to get the FPS on station and connected up?

I wonder why Navitas are talking about bridging loans if they are going to wait until June/July. If they wait till first oil to raise funds and FID, then surely it would more likely be September when they can close the deal, then they will sign the contract on the Aoka Mizu, which will have to work down a 6 month contract before it heads off for refit.

Also why would Navitas restate FID for mid 2024? Of course maybe you are on the money. We will have to wait and see.

LTT

Sorry Space, I thought you were starting the phrase,

"Wouldn't be out for the weekend!" LOL

But if you are saying you wouldn't be disappointed with a bid of 130p, well if you had said that at 15p in November I'd have snapped your hand off, but now, seeing we are within spitting distance of 50p, without any substantial news, i'm not so sure.

If we consider once FID is done, we are on track to first oil, we have the news of a an FPSO going into refit; rig getting booked; setting sail; drilling development wells, maybe event appraising Isobel first. If that came to pass, we could have the gold rush all over again. Imagine spudding Isobel with the aim of going into Isobel deep and she turns out to be a magnitude bigger that Sea Lion, I would well and truly kick myself if I'd sold out at £1.30 a share at FID.

But each to their own, what a position to be in if it came to pass!

LTT

Out for the.........

Look, I only said I would buy SpaceHoppa a pint at the AGM for his share price prediction prowess, but if NastyNicks 50p comes off, I might just run to two!

Who would have thought we would be at 45p without new of OM/Funding/FID, suppose the recent update will have helped and the Express article, but imagine when some real news drops and FID is announced! By the way, who was it that said, we might get another slow burn as happened from Q4 2024!

;-)

Still, it's all good in my books, folk buying in at higher and higher prices, expecting more, and more they shall get once the press get behind this and we get FID.

LTT

Paul, it really all depends on how Navitas fund to first oil. If they secure $400m vendor finance, get an Oil Trader taking 10% and then another partner taking 25% (both for Navitas' share), then that would be almost $900m sorted, so the $500m they would have to sort via a bond issue or bank loans would be quite doable. This would leave our share quite small and should be covered by the money we have in the bank once OM drops.

But either way, a small fund raise above 40p would be ok with me, much more preferable to giving away 5% of our stake, as that would be worth 100's of millions in lost revenue down the line.

LTT

Paul, any result from OM is good news for us, of course the €65m with the annulment thrown out would be the best, but even if they say, “ Actually, the ROI we’re right, you can’t have anything!” It’s still a result and we pocket €31m from the insurance, so a win, win. We just need them to draw a line under it and say either yes or no.

LTT

Tell me about it Space, have a few in my ISA and 50k in the wife’s. For some reason the other day, she stumbled across a RKH share price graph and asked if this was the company in her ISA! It’s gone up quite a bit she said, almost 4 times!!!!!!! 😳😉 Luckliy she hasn’t noticed that my Harbour investment I also put in there has halved! LOL. However the dividends have topped it up. Just shows why you don’t go all in on any one share.

I had to say, “Yes Darling, but we have to wait a few more months before thinking about selling”. Hoping OM drops soon and gets us over 50p then I might consider selling those just to bank some profit rather than risk a fall should Navitas have to push back to Q3 or Q4 for some reason. Unlikely I know, Navitas are forging ahead regardless, but banking a profit is better than watching it ebb away!

By the way, fab article in the express 👍 Also the FPS is slowly getting closer, about 80-100km to the West of Shenandoah now. The Deepwater Atlas must be still doing completions🤔

LTT

Oh dear, if only the it was "The Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, The Universe, and Everything!"

Just one off. LOL

LTT