Member Info for longtermthinker

Thanks Rookie,

no I'm not in the industry, just i have a fascination with Oil and Gas shares and have just picked up a lot of info over the years, although it's only surface level. Was in Desire in the early days, had quite few, then as an after thought bought some RKH, thinking they surrounded Desires good acreage, so they would be dragged up when Desire hit oil! LOL

How wrong could one be! Lost quite a bit of Desire, although it was profits that I lost, but more than made up for it with the meagre holding of RKH. Then I sold RKH on the way down and for one reason or another walked away from the Falklands. Got back in a couple of years ago with RKH which has been pretty good to me since the OM result a couple of years ago and more so now. However I never forgot the mistake I made going all in on Desire and overlooking RKH. Hence why I have a holding in Borders, they will do well on the back of Navitas FID-ing Sea Lion, maybe even as MD says, a take out at 25p+, that would suit me just find and no doubt our Canadian friend. If he got offered anything above 15p a share, he would snap their hand off, 15p-20p now would beat 50p in 3-4 years time. Could happen quicker than that as I said in my previous post or a drop in oil prices could push Darwin out into the long grass, as happened with RKH.

LTT

Why not Blackstone Energy Partners or someone similar, plus an oil trading company. The vendor finance might even run to the rig contract, start with a lower day rate then up it annually, further down the line when oil is actually flowing.

I am sure Navitas have a load of options on the cards. It's kind of exciting waiting to see how this all unfolds.

One thing is for sure, it will take everyone by surprise.

LTT

We say that, a big player partner wouldn't be interested, but 30% of a 900m barrel basin with upside of a possible, "fill to spill" Isobel and Isobel Deep that could add another 500m to 1B barrels, in a low tax regime! What's not to like?

I have never done the numbers, but surely 300m barrels in the Falklands might equate to needing 400m

to 600m barrels in another region to earn the same profit. Look at the North Sea these days, with the EPL, exploration is falling off a cliff, only tiebacks near to infrastructure are viable.

My only concern with a mid cap/major, would they want to dance to Navitas' tune.

LTT

I am in this until Navitas/RKH FID and hopefully some news of a partner, we should at the very least double from here to 10p-12p minimum depending on whether it's a farm in or a take out. After that I will have to re-evaluate the situation.

There is a slim chance of a rig heading down to the North Falklands basin beginning of 2026, maybe a 5th Gen semi-sub that could drill Isobel and drill Darwin West, it will be down their for 4+ years IMHO. It might even give up a slot or two prior to development drilling on Sea Lion if Borders partner have the cash, it would make sense for Navitas to have mob costs shared, and wouldn't that put the cat among the pigeons!

I would be defiantly stay in for the fireworks that could cause.

Fingers and toes crossed!

LTT

Yeah Tin, good luck to us all, I agree we don’t want someone sitting on it, like Borders have done in the past. The new guy seems a lot more proactive so hopefully he has an ace up his sleeve.

LTT

Tin, I just cannot see now how Borders can get a FDP sorted, an EIS sorted, find and refit a FPSO, order all long lead items AND get rig down there anytime before 2028. There is a HUGE amount of work to be done to get to FID, even if someone with very deep pockets signed up tomorrow!

I do hope I am wrong and a partner signs up soon, but it seems a tall order as very day and week passes.

LTT

Space, I was thinking the same, once the market takes onboard what the new numbers entail, we could see a repeat of the slow burn that happened from Q3 2025, only this time they a sticking with a mid 2025 FID and they are going for 150k bpd with 64 wells being drilled. Basically from 2026, continuous drilling into the next decade!

LTT

I'm surprised Borders isn't up on the back of RKH/Navitas' news. Re-stating FID mid 2025 and going with a bigger plan to develop more and sooner, has to be excellent news for everyone. Once boots are confirmed to be hitting the ground, that has to bode well for Borders, or am I missing something!

LTT

Morning Jock, yes it’s interesting, it’s like the news at the back end of last year that took us from 14p to the mid 30’s. It was a resource upgrade and FID pushed back to mid 2025, if anything it should have caused a drop or at the very least, treading water, but we went up.

Here we are again. But the devil is in the details, they are going for it big time, they are planning to drill right through to get up to 150k per day sooner rather than later, it has to be a positive sign, and this is being reflected in the share price.

A rig is going to be on a 5 year contract, the FPSO is ready to go pending FID. All the ducks are well and truly lined up this time. And I thing it is starting to dawn on people.

We are already aware of the potential, it’s why we are here, but as more and more wake up to the Falklands oil story actually coming together, there is only one way the share price can logically go.

LTT

Come on OM, let’s have you today ! 😉

LTT

I think a partner is nailed on now. Navitas would be crazy to go it alone. They have changed tac from a small development they will add to with 12 wells 2-3 years after Phase 1 to going pretty much straight through will drilling on the swapping out the 55k FPSO for a 150k per day one.

They must have a pretty hefty partner due to come on board who is going to take 25-30%. They would risk everything on the back of Shenandoah. Imagine if they FID and then 6months later they have an outage and lost production for 3 months!

No, I am expecting Shenandoah to come online, then Navitas will announce the start of funding through a bond issue and a partner at the same time, then it will be hold onto you hats time! IMHO

LTT

Morning voilindog,

no I wouldn't want to ruin folks Sunday.

That it good news, I hadn't thought of that, that the share would track the Tel Aviv stock exchange, I see it in the UK often, when the FTSE is down, most stocks go with it, don't know why I didn't think of that before I posted! DOH!

So nothing of note to see here. Hoping for an update on Shenandoah tomorrow and maybe Sea Lion, but if it's just facts and figures and nothing more, that will be a good sign also. As we know, Navitas don't say anything unless they have something important to say. Maybe I should take a leaf out for their book!

Happy Sunday everyone.

LTT

Down 14% in the past month and 2% today. I should temper that by saying that Navitas is still up almost 50% over the past 6 months.

So could we be in for a Shenandoah delay, which could mean FID being kicked into Q4 2025 thus delaying first oil to mid 2028? 🤔

The FPS is still floating around 200km to the west of Shenandoah while the Deepwater Atlas is stationary (probably drilling) on station and the pipe laying vessel is milling around.

I do hope for a positive update from Navitas tomorrow, I just seem to recall RKH have a habit of clutching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Either way, the train has left the station, Sea Lion, baring a black swan event, will happen, it’s just the train has not got up to full steam yet.

Fingers crossed for a bland, nothing to see here Navitas update tomorrow.

LTT

I think it was posted on RKH BB, that BP have interests in Argentina, so it’s highly unlikely, even with Argentina softening their stance slightly. Plus you are only an election away from an about turn, imagine BP get involved, then in 3 years time the Argentina gov changes and they not only put BP on the naughty list but confiscate all their assets in Argentina. Don’t thing BP would risk that.

However, the new turnaround by many oil companies as they realise investing in wind and solar won’t cut it means more and more mid caps will be looking at appraisal/development ready prospects. Much quicker than shooting 3D, working it up and wildcat drilling!

LTT

Being currently a Vessel Tracking Otaku, I can say, the Seven Oceans Pipe laying vessel has arrived, the Marine traffic site is had its last position of 19hours ago, but I checked the find a vessel site and it is now sat next to the Deepwater Atlas. The Ocean Sun, which is believe is towing the FPS also had its last position sent almost 13hrs ago, so we can guesstimate it must be getting close. It really depends I suppose what the pipe laying vessel and the Deepwater Atlas are doing.

The FPS might be on a go slow whilst they complete their tasks, either way, they could arrive anytime from this evening to the 24th March which were the two ETA's on a couple of the tugs. It's all very exciting.

Once the FPS arrives on site, does anyone have any idea of what happens and it what order?

I am presuming the tugs will tow it into position, then the anchor handlers will anchor is in position, then it will get connected up and be commissioned/tested before they open the taps. However I have no idea whatsoever how long that takes, could be a couple of weeks, could be a couple of months, even without issues. I realise time is money, so they will no doubt work around the clock to get it done, but as to a timescale, no clue!

LTT

I suppose it's a formality, they are going to sign off on the dilution and issue the shares, but still it would be nice if there was some hint of what is going on behind the scenes!

If nothing else, the board and the purchasers of these new shares, have attached warrants that are worthless with a share price under 10p, they will want to get the share price above 10p+ to cash in.

Cannot help wonder why they put the warrant price so high, has there been some tentative offers of 15p+ discussed behind closed doors! Nothing official, no firm offer, hence no need to inform shareholders, but the conversations could have gone as follows;

"We have looked at the data, and we are keen to come onboard, or maybe take you out, what would you say to that?"

"Hmmmmmhhh, we would like a partner who would fund us on a couple of appraisals and a carry to first oil!"

"Well, you'd have to give up 75%+ of everything for that to happen, then maybe we'd give you a loan for your 25% of costs, the days of a free carry are long gone!"

"Ok, that's interesting, but we want something for shareholders now, they have suffered enough, 20p a share plus might just swing a complete sale of Borders!"

"We'll, think about that, we will need to crunch some numbers and see if Navitas FID, if that happens, you might just have a deal!"

LTT

Have to agree with Nick, there might be a statement saying FID still planned for mid year, or even that it’s postponed until Q3/Q4 😳

But more than likely it will be an update on where they are at. At a push they may say something about funding, but just can’t see it till first oil is actually pumping.

LTT

Mogger, Topdrive,

your have made me follow that rabbit down the rabbit hole!!!!!!!!!!

I must get back to work, but just........one.......more.......peek at the Deepwater Atlas!!!!!!!!

LOL

LTT

I was thinking Space, with the sort of numbers you are estimating, RKH could easily pay back Navitas’ loans and have $25m left over. Not a great amount for the first couple of years but still great compared to our days in the wilderness.

And anyway, any further funds for development or appraisal drilling could be funded by RBL. I think Sam said at the AGM they would just pay off the loans from income as they are interest free, so once the oil is rolling in, RKH could easily get RBL to develop and pay their share of further exploration.

By the way, for those Ship Otaku (train spotter types) among us, there is a pipe laying vessel the Seven Oceans joining the party, steaming ahead at 12kn.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:191854/zoom:9

LTT

Space, do RKH pay 85% of revenue to sort out the loan, plus we could possibly pay off the Pre-FID costs from money we have after OM. No forgetting the 33% we have to pay up front which could be anything from $33m to $60m depending on how Navitas raise the finance and if they get a partner in to take a chunk. 🤔

All very thought provoking, and could become a moot point if someone takes us out. Fingers crossed we make it to first oil and an appraisal on Isobel. 🫣

LTT