Member Info for longtermthinker

Sorry I forgot to say, maybe Prax might be a partner in Sea Lion, with the Lancaster field coming to end of life and the Aoka Mizu possibly sailing away sooner rather than later, why not!

LTT

"Vitol, for its part, has been looking to get into more upstream and downstream assets after the world’s biggest trading houses generated exceptional profits during the spikes in energy commodity prices in the extremely volatile 2022-2023 period in oil and gas markets."

An excerpt from Oilprice.com today, who would have thought oil traders would buy into upstream assets. It's a sign of the times and shows their commitment to a future where oil and gas will still be needed, even if the UK still has its head in the sand!

We have quite a lot of oil now with the resource upgrade stating 900m+ barrels, even if Isobel came in at half that we are talking almost 1.5B barrels in a basin with upside, in an easily drill-able environment it a very stable and lucrative tax regime.

Maybe we will get 2 new partners, an oil mid cap and an oil trading company. Navitas already mentioned it could be an oil trader.

LTT

We would be heading to the end of Q1 without any news on OM! It really is shocking the lethargy, of those making the decision. At this rate Beacon will announce first oil before we get the OM result!

But the looking at Serica, and the issues they are having with the Triton FPSO, nobody can count their chickens. They are beholden to Dana as operator and they say May at the earliest.

I suppose that it why Navitas plan to remain operator on Sea Lion, they don’t want to be dancing to anyone else’s tune, not once Shenandoah starts first oil and they FID Sea Lion.

Great news on FIG raising funds, they are really being proactive, they must be pretty certain they will be in a position to pay back the loans in the future. The main thing is they have the cash to get up to speed with accommodation, infrastructure, oil readiness.

LTT

LOL, don’t worry Tincan, I won’t be so crazy then, it will just be routine at that point, it’s just because Beacon is in charge and a private entity, they don’t really have to say anything, but their actions are so linked to Navitas and RKH future.

Anyway, I’m good now, I have it out of my system, plus I have a busy week ahead, so won’t be hanging out here so much.

LTT

I have been checking in on the tugs today and they hadn’t moved, but now they are three in a line towing to block 52 at about 2.5knt with an eta of 21st to 24th depending on which ship you look at.

So I’m thinking they were doing some sea trails or testing before the big tow to site. Either way we are on our way ☺️👍

LTT

MD, you might be right with a year end target of 59p, but I think it will shoot up well past that on official news, and depending on whether we get a partner/partner with some clout, we could be double that.

Plus if the partner takes 5% of us for let’s say a conservative $150m, that would underpin our share price and put a value on us of $600m+

LTT

MD, your one for adding in drips, it's a sensible way to buy, Pavelk can now buy at a cheaper price today because he kept some powder dry.

It doesn't always work out like that, but I have lost count of how many times i have gone all in on a share, only to have it retrace a week or month later. If I'd kept some cash back I could have bought more for less. Of course it can go the other way.

There will still be plenty of time to buy some more RKH. The FPS isn't on site till the 22nd- 24th of March and no doubt it will take a week or two of anchor handling vessels to get it into position and tied off before they connect it up and start commissioning ready for first oil. Then, even upon first oil, can't see Navitas going for a bond issue, they would need FIG to sign off on the tax regimes, etc to give them some security that FIG won't move the goal posts once the match has kicked off!

However, I cannot help wonder what will come first after first oil on Shenandoah. Of course we hope OM comes soon, but from Navitas, what will come next? They did the bond issue, announced a partner and made FID on the same day with Shenandoah if I remember correctly. If anything they might do it again to minimise sabre rattling from Argentina, not giving them any time to protest as it will be full steam ahead from day one. Over could they announce that the Aoka Mizu has been released and is heading for refit after 6months? If there is anything to do with RKH giving away a percentage to a partner, then that would have to be announced sooner as RKH would need to have an EGM to get it voted on and signed off.

I suppose we will have to wait and see, but it's getting ever closer.

LTT

Thanks to Mogger for the initial links to the Marine Traffic site and then to others for the Facebook pages and the webcam. A real team effort. As Hoppa says, who knows if it will affect the share price as it was going to happen at some point anyway. However, it shows that Beacon mean business and will want Shenandoah up and running as soon as possible.

First oil in Q2, could well be early Q2, very early, which bodes well for us. It’s also in keeping with FIG statement about FID end of Q4 YR 2024/25.

Which Alma mentioned runs from June to June.

Don’t want to jinx it, but we just might get the AGM with FID in the bag! 😳🤯

All we need now is for OM to drop and we are on a roll! 😉

LTT

Hsb,

I think Alma said it won’t have a call sign as it doesn’t have any engines/propulsion capability. They tow it and then anchor it down I believe.

LTT

Hi Topdrive,

Wouldn’t it be prudent though to get it out into the Gulf on a Sunday, a little quieter day, rather than run the gauntlet on a week day with a huge amount of traffic? It’s a big bit of kit to maneuver.

Here is a link to the boats that are on the move, maybe it’s a practice run, but I think not. Checks must have been done and it’s heading out of harbour today!

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-97.228/centery:27.823/zoom:14

LTT

It seems the FPS is on the move, the lead vessel has a destination of WALKER RIDGE BLK 52.

Actually it’s quite an interesting formation, a lead ship way out in front, a tail ship behind an a cluster of 6 in a giant FPS shaped formation around something!

I realize it’s a little off topic but as Shenandoah first oil is so connected to our future, it seems relevant to keep an eye on things.

Should be an interesting week ahead.

LTT

I don't think they are just hanging out together for a laugh, having a towing party/convention, or a "Who is the strongest tow-er competition!"

I would like to think there will be some update from Beacon or Navitas tomorrow or sometime next week saying the Shenandoah FPS as completed final checks and passed regulatory inspections, and it now being towed to the offshore installation at the Shenandoah Walker Ridge project site.

I'm just guessing, but I don't think it will be like connecting up a washing machine, where you reach around the back and connect the hoses and that's that! LOL

;-)

There will be a period of testing and commissioning I imagine, how long that takes I couldn't even guess. But either way another big milestone will have been breached on Navitas' journey to first oil and then the fireworks should start to happen here also.

LTT

And there is a little gathering of vessels at Ingleside!

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-97.237/centery:27.851/zoom:17

LTT

LOL, I know how you feel Mogger.

There is something afoot though, there are 6/7 tug like vehicles congregating around something were the FPS was dropping off, coupled with the rise in Navitas’ share price today and the 1month + since the FPS arrived. I could hazard a guess that they are preparing for a wet towed at first light to get it out into the Gulf of America! They would be foolish to move it in the dark. 🤔

LTT

Mogger, I think the Sea Albatross is headed for Cameroon, however, there are now two towing vessels hovering around the last position of the FPS, and Beacon said after limited final checks it would be wet towed to Shenandoah. 🤔

LTT

Seems like we are in limbo until Navitas makes a move. I'd like to believe our board have a couple of players lined up to maybe farm-in, who are just waiting to commit once Navitas FID Sea Lion.

I know it's been debated to death about Borders going it alone, but there is comfort in numbers, and with Navitas confirming boots are going to hit the ground, brings all sorts of synergies into play, so it makes a lot of sense holding back until that time.

I think once Navitas FID, (unless of course they don't do a fund raise that includes a a Farm-in/Buy-out of Borders), this will double/treble in a blink IMHO. But until then, it's just a waiting game unfortunately. RKH have so many catalysts, that could send them northwards, Funding, OM, FID, Shenandoah first oil, all will affect the share price, but the main one for Borders is FID, nothing is going to effect us more going forward. IMHO

LTT

Auson,

I think you might be right, when you consider how we have got here on nothing but a resources upgrade in Nov/Dec. Nothing from Navitas or RKH with regards to progress on Sea Lion, well not through official channels, not spelled out.

Once we have a RNS or statement about OM; Funding; Partner we can say goodbye to 50p and FID, well who knows, 75p+

It really depends IF there is a partner and who it is. If it's a US players for example Murphy, then that underpins the project and RKH share price in so many ways. If it's a Blackstone investment vehicle, that also works big style as they have deep pockets and can ride any issues thrown at us. We will just have to wait and see, Navitas are playing their cards close to their chest.

LTT

Is that Ripley, talking about cold cuts again, still tickles me, Alma's response LOL!

Seem like we are headed higher on low-ish volume, gosh, can you imagine the re-rate when some concrete news of Shenandoah's FPS heading to be connected up; first oil; then Navitas announce funding/Partner! Never mind FID!

Manks again Mogger for the info as usually, FIG are definitely getting ready for FID and sorting all the stuff they will have to be all over post-FID. Maybe that is why we are heading upwards again, the realisation that this is actually going to happen sooner rather than later. PMO NEVER got this far down the line, nowhere near! Yet Navitas have been grafting away, under the radar, well maybe not under Moggers radar! Getting not only themselves up to speed, but they have pushed, probably sometimes dragged, kicking and screaming, FIG to get up to speed also. They don't want to fire the starters pistol and then FIG start Ummming and Arrrring, "Oh what do we do about this, lets outsource a team to discuss in, then we will review it, and then we will book it into the next Exco, then review it again!"

No Navitas don't want that, hence having FID get a team in house and the resources to run with it. Onwards and upwards.

I'm sorry, someone has to say it................

I wouldn't want to be out over the weekend!

;-)

LTT

Sorry for the confusion N08s, the Sea Lion Tug, was something I found at the site where the FPS for Shenandoah was dropped off. There is a heavy carrier ship that Mogger shared a link to in the same location, then the Sea Lion Tug arrived and has been pottering around that area also ever since.

LTT

Has been a busy little bee since arriving a couple of days ago, on the 24h track, it has visited something in the bay a couple of times, and been a round something and then back to berth. Anyone would thing there was something about to start moving!

It all bodes well. Can't think of any other reason the tug would be hanging around where the Shenandoah was dropped off on the 10th of Feb.

LTT