Member Info for longtermthinker

Someone is keen, 600k shares yesterday!

Hey Hoppa, don't you be using your 6th sense of share whispering and diss my Borders investment!

;-)

I have few Borders, but I am realistic with their future, they will most likely do a deal or get taken out, but drilling anything in the Southern Basin before the end of the decade it a none starter IMHO.

Ideally Navitas, RKH take them out and then they bring in a partner who takes 20 or 25% for the North and South, getting everything sewn up. Then they can do whatever at their leisure. If they want to drill Isobel and tag on a appraisal on Darwin sometime way, way down the line, they have that option, but I don't kid myself that Borders is going to 25p+ keeping 50% and a free carry!

LTT

Here you go

https://bordersandsouthern.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Investor-presentation-Q1-2025-FINAL.pdf

It's a good read, lots of prospects and possibilities, still think its a bit light on the drill costs mind, with the usual caveat;

"Drilling expenditure is highly dependent on market rig rate when contract is negotiated and where equipment and services are mobilised from"

But they have put various drill options at the end of the document, 1, 2 and 3 wells, which is pretty good. However, either way its expensive to drill in the Southern Basin, so they will need to find someone with deep pockets and give up a hefty percentage to kick this off. Plus deep water rigs are in demand so costs will increase further, the longer we wait for a partner. IMHO

LTT

3m + before 11am, something is in the offing, it cannot be just the updated PDF on the website, although it is much more extensive than to one they put out 2 years ago.

Onwards and upwards.

LTT

Yes, but Rumblefish they have to announce the warrants have been taken up as it affects the share in issue. Plus 500k shares might not be a lot to you, but to someone else, buying them a 1.5p a share and selling at 6.4p would give them 24k profit, who would want that! In fact they could just sell them straight to market and pocket the difference!

KR LTT

Well a warrant holder will make a tasty profit on that purchase if the share prices stays at 6.15p to bid, £24k if sold!

Nice.

LTT

The green bar which says "This message has been filtered, please adjust your filters to view" is a wonderful tool!

I don't have many folk on filter, as I feel everyone has a voice to be heard, but with Ripley I had to make an exception.

Seems we are on an upward trend again and the A trades and coming in think and fast. I cannot understand what it isn't classed a manipulation. Wasn't the guy from Leicester arrested for doing micro trades to take advantage of the spread!

LTT

Hi Buffit,

I have to agree, just wait till Upstream and Oilvoice start putting the headlines, "North and South Falklands Basins are the next Orange Basin/Guyana/Surinam etc".

We need everything tied off this year, either a partner or a take-out. Then the whole North and South can be easily chopped up for various players who can share the costs to get this off the ground.

Ideally, I'd like Navitas to farm in as operator for 65%, letting Borders keep 35% for a 3 well appraisal/exploration campaign. That way Navitas can then entice a partner in who take a slice of both basins, thus getting near term oil revenue with HUGE long term exploration upside. After all, Gideon would look a bit of an amateur if he let someone else take out Borders and and Borders acreage turns out the be the next Starbrok!!!!!!!! 10B+ barrels

LTT

Just heading into the Gulf of Mexico at the time of this post. Cruising alone nicely. Should be parked up by Monday 👍☺️

LTT

Well the XIN YAO HUA is on the home straight, it will enter the Gulf of Mexico later this evening. Its made excellent progress and with a bit of luck the checks will run smoothly and it will start the final part of its journey to Shenandoah.

I will be interested to see how Navitas’ share price reacts, but I imagine it has been mostly priced in with its 5 times increase over the past 2.5 years. Once FID happens on SL, I’d very very happy indeed if we followed that same trajectory.

LTT

Hi Ovets,

my comment about "in cold sweat" waiting for what could go wrong, was very mush said with tongue in cheek. I am with you with regards to Navitas, we couldn't have a better partner, that has come along at the right time for RKH and the right time themselves, they must have thought it was their Birthday and Christmas together when Harbour walked away!

If Navitas had been a much bigger entity, they too might not be involved, they may have been spread too thin, have other priorities, have cash earmarked for other projects! As it happened, everything seems to have come together perfectly.

They are just about to start first oil at Shenandoah and they have an oven ready development in Sea Lion that is ready, nay is chomping at the bit to get started.

I am looking forward to the next few months indeed, wondering what is going to drop news wise first!

If we FID this side of the AGM, I do hope Mr Moody has a bigger venue planned than the cricket club in Salisbury this year, as I can imagine it being standing room only. LOL

LTT

Just been reading on oil voice how our government is trying to go back on the supply of Export Finance to a $20b

Mozambique LNG project;

"Now the Labour government is taking legal advice over whether the UKEF pledge to support the Mozambique project is still binding, according to FT’s sources."

Now imagine where we would be if PMO/Navitas had got UKEF to finance Sea Lion and just as we are getting to FID, UKGov pulled the plug! It would be OM all over again, and most likely it would have put an end to Sea Lion and the Falklands oil dreams!

Something to think about as we edge closer and closer to FID, maybe start getting into a cold sweat wondering what might go wrong to scupper us this time!

;-)

LTT

Do we ever get to the bottom of what all the A trades mean, there are quite a number again all on the same second in groups. Is this bots playing with the share prices of just folks trailing stops or limit orders being taken out!

Still although volume isn't as high as previously, it still bodes well that we are consistently doing over 1m share trades a day whilst we are in a news vacuum, awaiting the FPS arrival for Beacon and OM to drop!

LTT

Tincan1995,

it wouldn't be fogl who drill in the South, it would be RKH drilling their adjacent acreage to Borders with lookalike prospects, as RKH swallowed up FOGL and Desire way back in the mists of time!

LTT

I have a question about the rig, we are all concentrating on Beacon and Navitas receiving the FPS; the funding; OM coming in; the FPSO being released on FID and heading off for a refit. But what about the rig? They are going to need it for 2 or 3 years minimum and could keep it working into the next decade, so where will it come from and more importantly when? If we work back from first oil, with approx 6 wells needing to be drilled before first oil late 2027 ( if everything goes to plan) then we need the rig there mid to late 2026 to give 50 days approx for development wells drilling, so that's roughly a year of drilling, then another year or so to get the other 6 done. That takes us to late 2028. So why, at that time let the rig go, why not keep is around to start the phase 2 drilling that will take another 2 years plus. If they are doing that, then why not just keep it to drill phase 3. You can see where I am going with this. They are going to have to negotiate a 5 year minimum rig hire.

Now I seem to recall an Upstream article mentioning a Chinese high spec rig hot stacked and it has got me thinking. Darwin and Isobel need a higher spec'd rig than is necessary for Sea Lion, but Navitas wouldn't go for a long hire on a higher spec rig as it would be overkill and costly, but then during Phase 1,2,3 drilling there would possibly be some down time in-between. Would Navitas let the rig go sailing off into the sunset, only to have to sail all the way back again 6 months later (taking into account Mob time), or allow it to sit idle? Also would they have the time to get a higher spec rig down to appraise Isobel and put a few explorations in Darwin (if they take a stake in Borders).

So, hypothetically, Navitas, if they are planning to sew up the whole shooting match, North and South, they could do what TotalEnergies did;

"TotalEnergies’ solution, under a recent deal with Vantage Drilling, was to acquire a 75% majority stake in the ultradeepwater 7th generation drillship Tungsten Explorer. This involves forming a joint venture with Vantage, which will retain a 25% interest in the 2013-built vessel, and will also continue to manage its operations for 10 years."

Take a higher spec'd rig on for 5 years+ , maybe ending its life in the Falklands, but have lots of options to drill whatever and where ever. I am pretty sure with Navitas' deal making prowess it could be a goer.

Just some musings while we wait for the FPS to arrive in the Gulf of America ;-)

LTT

P.S. Has anyone got the link handy to the Upstream article I mentioned?

Gus0,

I’m still not convinced Navitas would share a higher spec’s rig with Borders when they have 2+ years of drilling and Borders would need it for 2 or 3 months to drill a couple of exploration wells. With Navitas announcing costs have risen from $1.2b to $1.4b to first oil, how can the justify having a rig for 2 years at an extra $50k + per day!

However, saying all that I found this,

“TotalEnergies’ solution, under a recent deal with Vantage Drilling, was to acquire a 75% majority stake in the ultradeepwater 7th generation drillship Tungsten Explorer. This involves forming a joint venture with Vantage, which will retain a 25% interest in the 2013-built vessel, and will also continue to manage its operations for 10 years.“

So my thinking is, particularly with Navitas’ deal making prowess, they could do something similar to the above, buy a stake in the rig and book it on a 5 year contract. Now Navitas has tied their flag to the mast by wanting to remain operator, they could easily do a deal for a higher spec rig, knowing they are taking a stake in Borders, have Isobel to appraise and are basically keeping the rig busy for the next 5 years. It makes economic sense IMHO.

The more I think about it, it fits with everything you have heard from the board.

LTT

Hi Gus0,

It’s good to hear HB is discussing rig shares with Navitas, although I wonder what the plan is 🤔. Borders need a higher spec rig than the one needed for Sea Lion, and Sea Lion will need it for approximately 2 years working on 12 wells at 40-50 days per development well. I cannot see Navitas getting a higher spec rig even if they negotiate the price down, as even at 50k per day more to drill, the numbers get too big and sharing mob costs just won’t cut it! Why rent a Ferrari if you are towing a caravan!

However if Navitas are planning to appraise Isobel first that could be a goer indeed, even afterwards they could let the 3rd Gen Semi go back end of 2028 and get a 5th Gen Semi from Africa to come and appraise Darwin and Isobel 🤔.

Of course I could be totally wrong and Navitas have negotiated a fab deal on a 5th Gen rig that can do everything, after all they could keep a rig busy from 2026 till the end of the decade, some rig company might snap their hand off to get in on that kind of action.

Here’s hoping 👍☺️

LTT

Continued………says they are worth and that is currently 5p per share. No amount of ranting and raving, point to the numbers; that we own 100%; that we have a development plan with payback in 2 or 3 years is going to changed that.

We need a partner with deep pockets who will keep us in the game for no doubt taking a hefty cut, or a buyout. And with a buyout the most we can hope for is there are a couple of interested partners bidding against each other otherwise they could get Borders for a song! With a 52week high of 5.2p a cash over of 50% , so 7.5p could sway a few shareholders and at 10p I think it could be sold.

Of course I’d prefer to have a bidding war or keep a percentage, but many will see a 100% return from here, with no prospect of drilling anytime soon as too good to pass up, our Canadian friend in particular.

Either way, it’s going to be an interesting few months ahead, with no doubt plenty of fireworks.

LTT

Rumble,

Thank you for your insight but RKH have 35% of a 900m + barrels and some upside with Isobel, which could be bigger than Sea Lion, but because it hasn’t been appraised it cannot be proved. There in lies the problem, Borders haven’t appraised anything, on paper they have 2-10Billion barrels, they are the next Guyana and it may well come to pass that they are. However, until that time, they are only worth what the market

As an example of how Beacon, Navitas do things, I was reading that Beacon, Navitas etc have already sanctioned phase 2 of Shenandoah,

“Beacon estimates that the activities from Shenandoah Phase 2 to be conducted between 2025 and 2028 will add approximately 110 MMBOE of P50 resources.“

So they haven’t started pumping oil yet, but they are cracking on. So with the above in mind, it looks like as Navitas head to first oil, they will be looking at developing the basin sooner rather than later. No longer a 3 years wait between phase 1 and phase 2. I think it’s been said before, but once a rig is down there, it could be kept busy drilling development and exploration wells till at least 2030!

The exciting thing is where does Isobel fit in? 🤔 after first oil or before 🤔

LTT