Member Info for longtermthinker

But isn't that a bit like insuring your house and asking the insurance company to pay out, as it's going to get robed at some point anyway and add the caveat, "If they don't steal everything, I'll return the difference!"

;-)

LTT

Buffit, It will no doubt appear on the website when it's signed off, but I was told, it would just be a call or an email, no sitting in a room with ROI. The formal stuff has been done and they have presented their cases and they had the annulment hearing in Q1 2024, from memory I think Sam and the lawyers turned up fro that. I was told it's not like a courtroom, the decision is rendered and that's that! Below is an excerpt from a July 13th RNS.

"The decision to lift the provisional stay of enforcement is unrelated to the merits of Italy's annulment request. A final hearing in relation to Italy's request to annul the Award is scheduled to take place in Q1 2024. Guidance given by Rockhopper in the Company's 31 October 2022 announcement that the entire annulment process is likely to take 18-24 months from that date remains in place. Rockhopper is currently paying all legal costs associated with the annulment."

So we are currently overdue by 3 months.

LTT

Buffit, it should drop Q1 this year, notice I put THIS YEAR as famous last words!

But in my last communication with Sam he had been told by the lawyers it should come in Q1 of 2025. He also said there would be no formal hearing or statement; RKH and the ROI would not need to attend to hear the verdict, it would just be a phone call or an email. So it could come this afternoon or on Monday the 31st of March, and even then, it's the lawyers that believe it will come, as far as the annulment committee is concerned it could be another 6,12 months, a year or 2. They don't have a finish line they are racing to!

It's frustrating to say the least, but as discussed, I don't think it will hold up Navitas, they are focused on getting Shenandoah to first oil, then they will no doubt start rattling the tin for money. Although, I would like to think they have everything lined up and just need Shenandoah over the line to crack on.

Once that happens I would imagine one of the first things will be confirmation of the FPSO and the release of it by Prax. Then Bluewater can invoke the 6 month notice period to get the Aoka Mizu to dry docks for refit/upgrade. This will then give us an idea of when first oil can realistically happen. If it takes say 18months to prepare the Aoka and the 6months wind down starts at the beginning of April, it means you have sometime in October when it heads for refit, then you have the 18months work (as an example, could be longer, could be shorter). So the Aoka Mizu would theoretically be ready April/May 2027 to tootle off to get positioned over Sea Lion ready for connecting up. Therefore drilling would need to start late 2026 to give enough time to drill and complete the 6 wells prior to first oil back end of 2027.

As one can see, there are a lot of moving parts that have to drop into line to get to first oil by late 2027. It all depends on funding and FID, if those get delayed then everything gets knocked back.

Still, I cannot wait for it all to kick off and see what offers we get closer to first oil. I wonder if a mid cap will come and offer £2+ per share in late 2026 when drilling is about to start or is underway. Even at £2 it would be a very cheap way to increase reserves with exceptional upside. IMHO

KR LTT

I just checked and the Xin Yao Hua is no longer moored at Ingleside on the Bay, it seems to be heading for the Corpus Christi Channel?

"Shenandoah FPS is scheduled to arrive at Kiewit Offshore Services’ fabrication yard in Ingleside, TX in the middle of February for limited final preparations and regulatory inspections to be followed by wet tow and offshore installation at the Shenandoah Walker Ridge project site."

Actually since I started this post I see the Xin Yao Hua is motoring out into the Gulf, so my thinking is, that the FPO has been dropped off awaiting inspections and the Xin is heading to it's next job! The wet tow much mean it's isn't carried, it's towed to location by tugs!

Phew, nothing to see here, as you were!

LTT

Ralph, almost £5 a share! 😳 I’ll take some of that!

But I think that’s all the more reason Navitas will take on a partner, $400m vendor finance , partner taking 25-30% for paying $500m, then pro-rata after first oil. So Navitas will only have to do a bond issue for $500m.

Plus once Shenandoah starts production they will be good for it, but they won’t want the risk of being on the hook for $1B to finance SL, with as you say $1B debt and then something happens with Shenandoah, a production outage or other issues.

I just cannot see them taking on all the risk alone. They haven’t done that in the past, so why start now. 🤔

LTT

Citizen,

I see it all being intertwined, Shenandoah is good for Navitas' share price, which in turns gives them more power to raise funds for Sea Lion; makes a partner look at them more seriously; gives them a HUGE uplift in revenue AND the most important thing, it proves they can deliver, despite issues. They have partnered on a difficult project that many overlooked for years, yet Navitas, Beacon and partners saw the value, invested in it and are about to deliver big style.

If that isn't proof that the business model works, the unlocking of opportunities on the verge of FID, with appraisals done, then I don't know what else Navitas could do. Oh, maybe they could raise their unit/share price 5+ fold over the past 2.5 years!

DOH, they have done that too!

So, it must be linked as if not, RKH would have gradually ebbed back down to previous lows, as they have aways done in the past. The strength in Navitas is being reflected on to us. Once Shenandoah comes on stream, hold on to your seatbelts as I think, things will start to happen thick and fast, they may even announce everything in one go, funding, partner, maybe a take over of Borders (I know that's controversial), FPSO contract end notice given with 6months before it heads for refit, rig booking confirmed. Maybe even a reduced royalty for the first 3 years to get everything up and running, then gradually phased back in.

That is all in my fantasy world, as anything could happen in the 6 months and most likely will!

LTT

So long at the 3rd partner isn’t Harbour 😳!!!!!!

LTT

😉

Thanks Barnyard, I had heard that LSE trades are just a snapshot so probably that’s why is doesn’t show. Still it demons like I got a better price than 5.4p. Nice. 👍

LTT

Interestingly my sale hasn't shown up as yet, and it was at around 2.45pm when it went through.

Maybe as was said earlier, there is an order being filled!

LTT

Hi Rookie, you were right I just got my limit order filled. ☺️👍

LTT

Well if nothing else, I am pretty happy with how the share price is holding up whilst we are in limbo, waiting on OM, waiting on Funding, waiting on FID among other things. We could have been shorted down with the lack of news, but we are doing ok, suppose it's the risk of being caught offside with OM able to drop at any time.

LTT

That has probably put the kiss of death on the share price by the way!

;-)

Well I have a limit order in for 75k shares at 5.4p and there have been no takers, so seems we have finding a new level awaiting news, nobody what's to buy, nobody want to sell, well not in any significant quantities.

Seems we are in limbo until Navitas go after funding and FID Sea Lion, then the breaks will come off. Still, it's better to be at around 5.5p a share when that happens than 2.5p.

LTT

I think that is a good call, BP or similar with less ties to Argentina, will not want to fund exploration without seeing a clear future for investment in developing something that is 10 years away. Bidding for licenses, shooting and analysing 3D, then exploration and then jumping through hoops to FID for development, not to mention getting banks to fund things in this crazy anti-oil world. They will start to snap up producing assets with upside IMHO. It could be a perfect storm in our favour, particularly once Navitas hit the starter button and us possibly having 2B barrels+ in the North Basin alone.

Then as you say there is gas. The Falklands don't want any infrastructure on the islands, for now, but who knows down the line, infrastructure creates jobs and more prosperity, plus gas it more environmentally friendly and there is a lot of it around the Falklands. They have a lot of space down there so even a small footprint could be possible. It's amazing what can be negotiated when they start to talk about XXX number of skilled long term jobs, revenues, new blood settling on the islands.

LTT

Hopefully it won’t come to that, OM should drop in Q1 but we are almost half way through so they may be cutting it fine.

I believe to finalise the bond issue, the money, IOU, vendor finance has to be in the pot so to speak, so maybe with a partner, the requirement will be even less than the $46m SpaceHoppa suggests. I imagine the whole reason Sam took out the loan for 31m was because RKH have some idea from Navitas as to how much cash, maximum they would need. Then if push comes to shove a loan can be secured against the policy.

So, you are right, the lack of OM won’t stall the funding and FID, it’s just frustrating the sloth style pace at which these people work!

LTT

LOL me too, the sea of green is much better than reading it my accident. Thank you filter.

Now when is OM going to drop? RKH’s lawyers said end of 2024 early 2025! At this rate it will be mid 2025 and then late 2025. Navitas cannot go for the bonds without RKH having their share up front.

If we don’t have OM in the bank, be it 31m or 65m, Sam will have to issue some shares 🤔

LTT

Hi SpaceHoppa,

but the II's can wait until FID, then they can drive the price up to, and over £1+ if they like, as they take a stake in a new oil province in it's infancy.

If Navitas FID in June/July, it's only 2.5 years to the end of 2027, when oil is expected to flow!

5 times the share price from here to first oil, that's 35p on the share price every 6 months or so. Well doable IMHO. Although the news flow won't be so forthcoming, they will have to be more vocal that Beacon with information. Beacon can get away with keeping quiet as the are a private company, but Navitas will have investors to keep informed.

LTT

Morning Kerching,

now that is an interesting question.

A Farm-out could take the route of, for arguments sake, a Navitas/RKH type deal. The partner takes 65% and Borders keep 35%, then they are free carried on, lets say 2 exploration/appraisals to see what's there. Once they have confirmed that Darwin West is full of condensate and a lower target is full to spill, then Borders have the option of giving away another 10% to get carried to first oil OR as the share price in such a scenario will be much, much higher than today, they could do a bond issue or a raise to pay their share of development costs to get Darwin up and running, again a bit like Navitas/RKH, start with Darwin East and once the revenue starts rolling in, you have the funds to go after Darwin West and the other plays.

A buy-out could happen, not the preferred choice though. Numbers bandied around rage for 15p a share to 25p and 50p. Your guess is as good as anyones. I would say if an offer came tomorrow, baring any bidder war by two parties, you'd be looking at 15p plus for starters, at the very least, far more than a 50% increase on the mid market price over the past 12 months. If, and it's a BIG if, Navitas and RKH were to make an offer to tie up both basins, then I think the offer might be along the lines of 12p+ cash and 6p+ in RKH shares. That way Borders keeps to near term upside with Sea Lion coming on line and the longer term of Darwin getting drilled. This would also enable Navitas to entice a partner to come in for a percentage of the whole shooting match, North and South.

But please take the above with a pinch of salt, any deal could be much better that I have hypothesised or much worse, which is why we are currently at 5.5p despite the HUGE condensate discovery we have sat in our acreage. Hope that helps.

KR LTT

Dodger, if you check out the link below and scroll down to the bottom there is a video all about the FPS with it being built and being loaded for transport.

https://www.beaconoffshore.com/media

LTT

Hi Buffit, I think you are right to an extent, SL doesn't need to FID for the farm-in, but I imagine any prospective partner will be waiting for the FID to fire the starters gun. The possibility of sharing of storage sites, accommodation, helicopters, etc, would be too good to pass up.

LTT

That’s my plan Space, have just a relatively small punt in Borders from 1.8p and 2.4p, have topic sliced (oh goodness I sound like Ripley), but am intrigued as to what will happen to Border on RKH’s FID, they will no doubt be carried up, so I am holding till then or a take-out if it should drop before. But I wouldn’t be a buyer at the current share price, no way.

LTT