Member Info for longtermthinker

It all comes down to what the offer is, if someone can come in, offer 2 exploration drills and free carry to production, with Borders keeping say 25% it might just work. But how they get a rig down there for that and when is a total unknown at the minute.

If it's after Sea Lions producers are done and oil it pumping, then a higher spec heads down to drill Isobel and then on to Darwin, would shareholders be prepared to wait until 2028?

Of course if they can get down there back end of this year, early 2026, that would be a game changer, but the longer we wait for Navitas to FID (if that is what our possible partner is waiting for) our window of opportunity becomes narrower.

LTT

Hi Rookie, Gus0,

Nailing my flag to the mast. I think 10-12p cash from Navitas and around 6p of RKH shares. That works out as a 65/35 split with RKH thus aligning the North and South acreage. Maybe RKH would give up 65% of their southern acreage with the Darwin Lookalike prospects so the whole shooting match is sewn up. Then Navitas can bring in a mid cap partner offering them 25% of everything rather than peace meal, a bit of this and a bit of that!

It makes a great deal of sense and gives us some skin in the games with near term production with Sea Lion. Of course I’d prefer us to farm-out and reap much bigger rewards but I feel it’s getting a bit late in the day with Navitas planning to FID mid 2025.

And we have to face a bit of reality, if an offer came in, would our Canadian friend take it or wait it out till possibly the end of the decade for drilling! 🤔

LTT

Hi Tincan1995,

I guessed it was Falklands Building Services, (didn’t think they were run by FIG though🤔). Just I hadn’t heard of their collapse.

The last Exco documents linked by Mogger ( at least I think it was an Exco), stated that everything was in hand and they saw no issues with accommodation, there was nothing about the collapse of FBS!

Still, if that’s the case, it might explain why Navitas people are there. They are hands on types, not ones to sit back and go, “Oh dear, FBS has collapsed, what’s going to happen to the accommodation we are counting on! Suppose we will just have to wait and see!”.

LTT

Ovets, the collapse of FBS?

It’s interesting to hear that Navitas people are there, as if they were just asking for tenders, surely they would just announce it in the Penguin News or the like asking people to meet the criteria and submit. They would only be there if they had to finalize or sign off on contracts IMHO 🤔

If nothing else it gives food for thought, why would Navitas people fly all that way to do something that could me done on a Teams/Zoom call of my email! 🤔

LTT

Cheers MD, sorry I wasn’t meaning the BOARD, I was meaning Navitas Bods, as in bodies/ Navitas employees being there. Sorry for the confusion.

LTT

Morning MD,

So are you saying Navitas bods are in the Falklands or they are asking for tenders? 🤔

But wasn’t this something that went out last year, seem to call chatter on the BB about tenders going out for Mud plant, accommodation, warehouse space. It was in the Penguin news I think. So were those put on hold and these are reissued tenders, or just ongoing ? 🤔

Either way it’s a good sign. 👍 Cheers.

LTT

Yep, I love how the animation just dissolves the Ads way!

Hate to say it, but it has to be the post of the year! LOL

Sorry Brightspot with you Zaza hints and your Sharkeys dancing girls tips!

Sorry MD with your stating the share price!

Sorry Mogger with all your sharing of great research that is 2nd to none!

Daikihaku1, post "Tip of the Year" will take some beating!

;-)

LTT

I am sure someone mentioned this previously, but Navitas, (whom are up 3%+ today at the time of this post), has updated their website with Sea Lion FID by mid 2025, so in theory it could be sooner, but maybe that is just wishful thinking on my part!

Even so, I’m very pleased that the FPS has all but made it across the Atlantic, with an ETA of arriving 10th Feb, a couple of days earlier than originally thought. I had visions of the FPS slipping of the carrier in high seas in the mid Atlantic 😳 crazy I know. So at least that’s one less thing to worry about 😅.

The share price is in a good place for the next leg up on news. I’m must happier starting from a base of 35p for news to drop than 14p.

LTT

WOW Daikihaku1,

Amazing tip, thank you so much. 😊👍

LTT

Afraid that was then Rookie, you have to look at the deal with RKH. Navitas took 65% of the whole north basin for two loans, no free carry of payments AND that included over $1B of appraisals, Feed work and all the work done on the EIS and FDP.

I think even gus0 conceded that Harry said the days of big payments to farm in were in the rear view mirror!

Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to be wrong and someone farms in to 70% of our acreage for $50m and free carry on 2 exploration wells the share price would go into orbit. But just cannot see it myself 🤔

LTT

WOW Bloo, you are on fire! You couldn’t give me a heads up on the lottery numbers tonight could you! 😉

Still, although it’s not nice to see 100’s or even 1000’s disappear in a blink from your investment account, it was bound to happen at some point. We just have to think there are a lot of new investors onboard at higher and higher prices and the long termers are holding on to their break even and beyond. Plus the bottom line is, we have risen without any real news, so imagine when real news starts to drop. So for now, I’m sitting back and getting away from the screen for a few days. I’m not a trader, I always get it wrong, the fundamentals haven’t changed for me.

LTT

Gus0 a 3-1 would be more realistic in the future once we have a partner with deep pockets, but for now, we are where we are, which is understandable considering RKH have a partner, they have an EIS signed off, a FPSO earmarked, and all but FDP and FID mentioned for Q2 this year.

In all honesty, I’m glad Harry is talking of a partner and exploration/appraisals, as to get all the above in place, even for a small footprint development like Darwin, it’s a couple of years away minimum, and that would be if someone with deep pockets signed up tomorrow! IMHO.

So bring on the partner and an exploration or two, that would light the fuse here for sure.

LTT

So Paul, so basically the ROI is preparing to protect itself from the company who has bought the OM payout, from the seizure of assets?

This makes me think we are getting close to hearing the result and it's not going the ROI way! I think they are in for a bit of a shock as the new owners will play hard ball from the outset. It's one of the reasons RKH sold the award, they didn't have to funds to chase though the courts and list up the assets to be seized, but the new guys will, hence ROI getting law firm Withers onboard.

I do hope they stick it to Italy and make them squirm a bit, then they just pay up in full 6 months down the line and we get an extra bonus of 12m to 15m Euros.

LTT

Hi Edmungus,

As Space says, contact a broker like HL, or even Barclays if you don online banking . Depending on the amount and how long you intend to keep them, put them back in an ISA, as anything over a £3000 capital gain would mean paying tax. I have all my RKH and Borders in my wife's and my ISA's which until November this year seemed unimportant, but now, if I sold the lot or RKH got bought out, I would have been in for a hefty tax bill. For example having 20,000 shares worth £8k, if RKH got to 80p a share you have a capital gain of £8k, after allowance you'd have to pay 10% as a basic rate tax payer or 20% if you are a higher rate payer. So you'd be on the hook for £500 or £1000. It's better in your pocket than in theirs! However, one thing to bear in mind and sorry if you already know this, if RKH went down and you sold at a loss, you wouldn't be able to offset those loses.

So, ask yourself what you game plan is, either way, getting them transferred into a digital form will make it easier for you to sell them. You'll just log in, see you shares, get a quote and then sell.

Good luck whatever you decide.

LTT

Thanks Oilfieldhand and Mogger

:-)

Sorry to be slightly off topic, can anyone remember the name of the ship carrying Navitas/Beacons FPS?

Was tracking it on the maritime app but forget the name, it must be heading across from South Africa to the Gulf by now 👍

LTT

Gosh, 4m+ traded before 9:30am on a Monday and Borders is on the move also, they do seem to be linked, RKH hits 40p, Borders hits 4p anyone would think it was by design! 🤔

LTT

Morning Buffit, the feed contract will be between with Blue Water on behalf of Navitas, I would presume as Blue are the owner, Navitas will be just leasing the FPSO.

LTT

Buffit you write,

"Could the possible 65m to rkh remove the last obstacle to FID ?"

I hate to be a contrarian but I think it could be Yes, although I didn't see it as a currently a hold-up as they are waiting for FIG to sign off on the "We won't move the Tax/Royalty goal posts once you start extracting oil or put an EPL in place".

It's just because something Sam said in a discussion about Financing Sea Lion, he said that the plan was to use their working interest as part of the security package when Navitas go for the Bonds, which they wouldn't be able to keep quiet and by the time of the bond financing, you'd pretty much has to have everything more or less in place.

So to my mind, it meant that RKH would have to have their percentage of funds in place to get funding/FID over the line, otherwise the bonds cannot be sorted and therefore FID cannot happen. Of course it could be a moot point with Shenandoah coming outline and the OM funds due anytime. But still it would make a lot of sense as to why RKH paid for insurance to make sure they got 33m euros no matter what. Which would mean RKH have some inkling of how much they need to get funding over the line and also it means Navitas have got vendor finance sorted.

Monday is going to be interesting!

LTT