Member Info for longtermthinker

Hi Bloobird, I was thinking if Navitas secure vendor finance to the tune of $500m and the get a partner in who gets 30% for paying 50% of costs to first oil (can’t imagine Navitas letting them in at cost, after all the work they have done to get to FID) then the amount Navitas has to fund and therefore the loans RKH has to take on are reduced🤔 or maybe I am looking at this all wrong , maths was never my strong point at school. 🫣

LTT

Well Tin, that would be $350m to RKH with 85% going to Navitas to repay the loans, but either way it’s all good. With the possibility of a partner coming in pre-FID, RKH loans should be greatly reduced 👍

LTT

Navitas’ FPS is currently heading north having rounded Africa. On schedule for a Feb 12th arrival ready for checking over. Then it will be manoeuvred into position and connected up ready to start pumping!

So everything looks to be on course for first oil Q2 2025, not sure if that will be the beginning, middle or by the end of, but either way, it will be a monumental moment, showing Navitas can deliver. Can’t wait , then everything should start to fall into place. Ian Ramsey and team must be chopping at the bit!

LTT

Rookie, I had this fanciful idea that we would get bought with 1 RKH for 10 Borders shares, plus some cash from Navitas and the option to take only cash for those who didn't want some skin left in the game!

Of course I would much prefer us to get a partner and drill an exploration/appraisal or two on Darwin West late 2025/early 2026 before development drilling starts with a 3rd Gen semi on Sea Lion, thus seeing the share price sky rocket, but I feel something is a foot.

I have this nagging feeling that Navitas is waiting to get Shenandoah up and running and the cash coming in, then they will FID and make an offer for Borders at the same time, maybe with a partner. It's all speculation thought, no substance or nods or winks. I'm just preparing for a not too favourable outcome, being taken out quite cheaply, whilst hoping for much, much more. Fingers crossed. Have a great weekend everyone.

LTT

Maybe........just maybe..........!

Some folk are not wanting to be out, or are getting back in, for the weekend!

;-)

LTT

Hi Ovets,

either way it makes no difference to us, we get 33m Euros even if the annulment succeeds (insurance claim kicks in) or if it stands we get the full 65m Euros. The 20% we could get after 200% is just pocket money.

I think the most likely scenario is Italy will make an offer of 200m Euros to pay up straight away after it goes in our favour. The folk who bought the OM award would be crazy not to take it, it would save them a few bob going through the courts, freezing assets etc. However we would miss out on our Brucie Bonus, but we would have the funds to get us to first oil and that is all we need and why we sold OM in the first place.

LTT

Hullbist, are you meaning Ian Ramsey is gunning for Borders?

LTT

Of course it might not happen, however, I'd like to think they would have OM at the top of the "To Do" list once they got back after the festive hols. I've given them a week, with a slow start to the New Year, getting into the office, catching up with colleagues, having a bit of chitty chat. But they need to knuckle down and sort this out!

I'm sure the folk who bought OM will be keen to get cracking to recoup their cash, but either way, the interest will be stacking up every month. Didn't Sam say it was running at 1.5m euros a month? So another year gone, another 18m euros they can add onto the bill! If they recoup the whole amount (should it go in our favour) by this time next year, we might even get a Brucie Bonus of an extra 5-7m euros! Nice.

LTT

Did we get to the bottom of what the A trades are, as has been mentioned, there see to be a lot and I haven't noticed that many before.

Just to clarify, for my simple brain. An Ordinary trade is when I go into my trading account and get a quote, I see the price offered and then I deal, where as an Automatic trade would normally be when I want to lock in profit should it go below 30p, then I would put a stop loss in at say 30.5p and leave it, if the price drops while I'm away, then it should Automatically sell as it drops past 30.5p. Similarly, if I but a limit order in to buy on the way up at say 35.5p.

Am I right on this? So what is going on with the 50k here and 50k there traded as the same time stamp in an A trade?

A puzzled

LTT

Thats more like it, get a dozen of those going through and that will wake up the share price. It would also signal that we are getting closer to some material news. 👍

LTT

With only £80k-£90k traded today, I can say the big pocket investors are not here yet! What we need are lots of trades in the 250k to 500k in shares, then it will be proof that someone is stake building, as it stands it seems to be the general public taking a gamble on a nod or a wink, or are seeing RKH as expensive. They can buy 10 Borders shares for the price of 1 RKH so £3.5k buys you roughly 100k Borders where as it only buys you 10k of RKH.

Physiologically, it seems much easier for Borders to triple to 10.5p and make you £10k+ than for RKH to get to 102p to make you the same £10k+🤔 and partly that’s why I have a holding here. Once RKH FID, I’d like think Borders would be 6-7p+ maybe higher and if a partner comes in, then we, depending on the deal would be through 10-15p in a blink. So to my mind it’s a win, win.

LTT

Ralph2010,

if Murphy came onboard, we would be past 50p in a blink! A US partner of Murphys stature would carry so much more than just sharing the costs. Fingers crossed, that would be an incredible result.

LTT

Hi Paul,

I too have concerns about how Borders are going to do all the things they need to do this decade, such as appraise Darwin, create an EIS with all the work that entails and then get public approval; submit an FDP and get that signed off; get an FPSO booked and then refitted for condensate; get a rig booked, etc, etc. So many things to do, that PMO had been doing for 10years and then Navitas finished off!

However, I am here because there is no doubt that Borders will be dragged upwards on the coat tails of Navitas/RKH getting funding, securing a FPSO and FID. On top of that there is the prospect of Navitas and or partner taking a stake in Borders or even buying them out. If that comes to pass, Borders will shoot up, and will, percentage wise in the short term do much better than RKH. Whether it will hold on to those gains once the dust settles is another matter.

KR LTT

Just arrived at the LSE home page and there in the top five risers today is RKH! What's going on? Something must be happening behind the scenes! Maybe OM is about to drop and that means we are in the money either way and can afford our share to first oil.

LTT

Navitas is on its way up too, its unit price is currently up 1% , I know it doesn’t seem much, but its doing that everyday of late as the FPS gets closer and closer to the Gulf of America 😉🤣

LTT

Hi Gus,

Thanks for that. I think you are right with Navitas possibly being Borders partner, that would open up many possibilities for everyone, particularly if they brought in a third party with deep water drilling and development🤔 onwards and upwards. 👍

LTT

I hope you are right Gus, but if that is the case, Borders not being dependent on Navitas and RKH getting FID on Sea Lion, what are they waiting for? If anything they should be getting organised with a partner who can hire a rig and get it down there before Navitas kicks off their drilling campaign, because once Navitas is drilling production wells I cannot see how the Falklands infrastructure can support two campaigns running at the same time. Support vessels, helicopter cover, drilling mud and fluids and fuel, etc. In Navitas EIS there are pages all about the fresh drinking water and accommodation concerns, Borders may have the plan to develop Darwin quickly and cheaply, but there are lots of items to tick off before a FDP is signed off.

Not meaning to be negative, but if the board don’t do something soon, they may miss their chance as I cannot see how FIG can support two campaigns north and south running together.

KR LTT

It's hardly worth stressing about unless you're over leveraged. Well done to those who bought on the way up and have now sold, nice one. Its a good strategy and not to be sneezed at.

I am happy with my holding, 8% drop is nothing on a 100% rise, and bear in mind, it has only been apparently on the back of a 16% increase in resources, a plan to develop the basin in 3 phase, FID getting knocked back to mid 2025 AND that doesn't include that Isobel could be bigger than Sea Lion.

So when news of OM, Funding, Partner, FID and firm contracts being signed for FPSO's, Rig, long lead items, etc, start to come out, and the media starts to run with the story, this 8% pull back will be far away in the rear view mirror. As the share price climbs further, when you look back at the share price chart, it won't even register, it will just be a uninterrupted line heading steadily northwards, as Navitas have done over the past few years.

Hoping that OM drops sooner rather than later, it would be great peace of mind to have the 31m or 65m Euros in the bank as we cannot claim the money until the result is known and if they drag it out further into the 2nd Q, we may have a little fund raise to do!

LTT

Morning MD,

How do you see the 10-25p coming about?

1.Will it be on news from Navitas on funding?

2.Will it be on Navitas FID-ing Sea Lion?

3.Will it be RKH OM result as this would secure thier funding of Sea Lion?

4.Or will it be news of a partner taking a stake in Borders?

To my mind, the first 3 options would possibly double the shares from here, many triple if they FID. They real rise will come from a partner/Farm-in, but are we waiting for the catalyst of the first three to secure the partnership coming in? 🤔

To my mind, that is what we are waiting for, the partner is waiting for Navitas to FID the project, as once that is done, boots are on the ground the the options of sharing facilities, crew, economies of scale, maybe even rig share in the future start to come in. But imagine if the partner took a stake in Borders and Navitas had a issue with the start up of Shenandoah; couldn’t secure funding at this time; the oil price crashed as Trump starting drlling, baby drill. Then Sea Lion gets kicked back to 2026/27 for FID and the partner for Borders would feel pretty foolish because if Navitas couldn’t get SL over the line, what chance would Borders and partner have going it alone? 🤔

So, I think once Navitas secure funding and FID, or maybe the catalyst will just be funding, as once that’s in the bag, FID is a forgone conclusion. Then Borders will take off IMHO. Good luck to us all.

LTT

Hi SpaceHoppa,

Don’t worry, I haven’t forgotten I will be buying you a beer or two at this years AGM, also glad you are raising your EOY target, didn’t want to say, but thought it was a little low, thought you might be throwing the fight, to let someone else take the glory! 😉

LTT