Member Info for longtermthinker

Hi Space, are you sure it’s not you just putting in spoof bids and asks to get the share price to your target for end of 2024 🤔😉 ?

I tell you what if you win, I will buy you a pint or three at the AGM next year, it should be a live one with a few more shareholders next year! They may even have to change the venue to get us all in!

LTT

At least I think it was him who was married to mystic Meg (he called his better half). Apparently she was actually quite mystic and drew a teardrop shape on the north Falklands basin either before or just after the Sea Lion discovery. So the narrow bit started over SL and then it opened out and put the major Oil Sump as Marlon would put it, over where Isobel was later discovered.

Make of that what you will. But it’s looking like she could be proved right. All the more reason for RKH not to sell out too soon IMHO. The closer we get to OM result, funding and FID the better, puts a low ball offer out of the question.

LTT

Ralph, I took it as promoting to potential investors rather than to a partner. As he says, Navitas becomes a very different beast once Shenandoah comes on stream.

One question I have, is the 900m barrels including Isobel or not? I was thinking that is wasn’t but might be reading it wrong 🤔 either way, as they say in the text, not only is it a huge field but it’s a huge part of Navitas’ future.

Here’s to everyone having a VERY prosperous 2025, the year of the RKH, Navitas and maybe a partner!

LTT

Welcome to the party covgaz , not sure what the future holds for Borders, a partner or a complete takeover, but feel from here you will make a bit either way.

Farmin like RKH’s deal with FID done on RKH could see 6-8p+, a buyout could be even higher fingers crossed.

Good luck everyone.

LTT

Seems like people are taking their stakes in preparation for 2025. Have to say I’m still surprised we are touching 25p on no real news!

Can’t help but think that once funding, OM, maybe a partner drops we will be at 50p in a blink. All the ducks are lining up, everything is getting sorted in the background, and Navitas is heading to first oil in Q2 2025 at an all time high.

Then FID, of course I then see a lull in the share price as many take profits, get some cash out, with a plan to come back in early 2027 for the run up to first oil, and who could blame them, might even top slice myself! It will be difficult though, with FID and first oil looming, who would want to be out with all that potential. Like cashing in 10,000 bitcoins to buy a pizza in 2010! Well maybe not quite, but you get my drift.

The potential here is HUGE if we don’t get bought out long before, but as we tick off more items on the list, any buyer will have to pay a premium.

LTT

Navitas are really powering forward again today. It bodes well for when things start moving here and we get closer to first oil.

LTT

Hi Much,

Yes it has all well and truly changed, the fact we are hovering around 21p prior to OM, funding, possible partner coming onboard, and FPSO news, not to mention FID that is due mid 2025 means we are like a coiled spring waiting to be released. Of course we may overshoot when news drops and spring back a little, (an opportunity for the brave to sell and buy back lower!🤔), but we will find a new resting point waiting for the next news to drop. That is of course if they don’t do a blowout RNS announcing funding, partner and FID in one go!

My thinking is they will announce they are heading to the bond markets for Sea Lion in Q1 2025, then they will announce the partner also, as any heavyweight coming onboard would mean they could raise funds easily and would be oversubscribed.

I had hoped that OM would drop this side of Christmas but alas it seems highly unlikely now, we would be lucky to hear in January! I cannot understand what they are still deliberating about! 🤔

LTT

I am just wondering about how things work with Harry’s options. He has 22m that to my knowledge haven’t been taken up, so my question is, if someone comes along and offers say 8p a share to buy out Borders, on that news can Harry then purchase his 22m and cash in or does he have to have purchased the 22m prior to the new? 🤔

Always wondered how it worked.

LTT

Wonder what’s that all about? Must be the FPS news.

LTT

MD, but will Borders exist for you to put the money you make into them?

If RKH gets to 50p, it will have to be on some major news, such as a partner and funding and what makes you think that said partner won't want a piece of Borders, if not the whole thing. With a current MC of £17m who's to say someone won't come along and offer £35m for the whole thing? With a big shareholder like the Canadian onboard he wouldn't need many more shareholders on his side to allow a buyout. He will want to double or maybe triple his money and be away IMHO. Why would he hang around for 5 years to get Darwin up and running, because that's how long it will take to get to first oil once Navitas FID and the rig is booked to start on Sea Lion.

Of course there might be a possibility of Borders booking a rig with a partner on their own, but that would be incredibly dilutive. I do hope I am wrong and Borders come good, I've be more than happy to see RKH at £1+ and Borders on their coattails at 50p+ but cannot see how it will work.

Now who wouldn't want to be out over the weekend!

;-)

LTT

I think your right Paul, the hype does play a big part, but as I mentioned previously, we had the last run up to 21p on a reserve upgrade of 16%, FID getting pushed back and no mention on funding , which is the kingpin. This run up appears to be on the back of the Upstream article about the FPSO, (or at least those in the know who knew is was coming) so what sort of a rise will we get once some BIG RNS-able news drops.

I feel there are a lot of investors waiting on the sidelines, and once the media gets behind it, RKH will fly IMHO, and by default so should Borders, which is why I have a small punt there.

Then of course the institutions will no doubt get on board once Navitas FID and Sea Lion first oil gets nailed on. Who wouldn't want to get in on the action in 2025 at 35p-40p a share to possibly double and triple their money come 2027. It would be like buying one pound notes for 35p. Wish I'd weighed in more for those warrants now, but got my full allocation which has brought down my average.

LTT

Morning Jock, I suppose it’s like joining up the dots on a HUGE Dot to Dot! You start and join up 1 to 20, then you join a few dots at 300 to 310, and so on, only when you get way down the line do you see the full picture coming into view.

Maybe we are lucky holding shares whilst the clear picture cannot be seen! Every day, week, month, more dots are being joined up and one day the picture will become clear to everyone.

LTT

Nice one Thenorseman, things are chugging along it seems, Prax or Bluewater must be about to start the countdown on the 180 days notice for the Aoka Mizu to sail into the sunset for refit.

Still unsure how Navitas can do that without having the cash I the bag, but it’s all positive either way.

I’m inclined to agree with Jock, maybe this buying has been a few folk bunging some in a ISA or topping up. I’m not implying it’s insider trading or anything, as it’s all part of the mechanics of getting to FID, it would be no different than someone in the Falklands receiving sign off to provide accommodation or work on the Heliport. It’s not an RNS-able bit of news, but it creeps us one step closer to first oil.

Onwards and upwards I say. Seems like the FPSO was in the bag all on long, not waiting years to negotiate a contract! I wonder if all this fuss of funding difficulties is actually in the bag also. 🤔

LTT

Here here Happy,

I aren’t not selling my less shares to the many peoples out there who might want it! 🫣😉🤣

However, on a more serious note, why did we have the rise on pretty high volume, followed by a drop and then a rise again on relatively low volume. I cannot understand what the catalyst was🤔. Maybe folk are just taking positions now we have a MC of £100m+ . Of course, as shareholders we can see the future is bright, but what has swayed new investors to get onboard? The 16% increase in resources and an extensive development plan is all well and good, but that’s all it is, a plan with a promise of FID mid 2025, that let’s face it, could slip just as easily as it could be signed off. Is there some news in the offing this side of Christmas 🤔?

LTT

P.S. I have been sweating😰 over this post, don’t want Croft pulling me up on my grammar again! 😉

But MD, volume here is nothing to write home about, I expected a much higher share price with RKH heading north, but the lack of trading says RKH's rise is to do with possible OM dropping or it was due to the increased resources, nothing to do with Navitas and a partner. As surely anything coming from Navitas about funding or a partner or even the FPSO being released by Prax and RKH would fly and be default so would Borders on their coat tails.

As Navitas get closer to have boots on the ground in the Falklands, it has to bode well for Borders. A cannot understand what is holding this back, the risk reward is pretty astounding!

KR LTT

Sorry I meant,

"is it because less people AREN'T selling"

Regards

LTT

Why the rise back to 20p but on lowish volume compared to the previous run up to 20p, is it because less people are selling or those who bought at 17p & 18p+ last time are now hanging on to get to 25p+

Just interested in the mechanics of this if someone would care to share their thoughts.

By the way I'm not even cotmepleing selling any till 50p+ and then I would have to see where Navitas and RKH are at that time!

KR

LTT

I'd like to think the ICSID committee members would want to put this to bed before the New Year, surely they would have had enough already. Draw a line under it and move on to the next case.

But think you are right Auson, they will no doubt be breaking up soon for the festive hols and won't be back in the office till mid Jan, then it will be Feb before they lift a finger!

Still, we have the buffer of FID mid 2025, so Funding will possibly be required from end of Q1 at the earliest giving us ample time to get the result of OM, fingers crossed!

LTT

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Giants-Bet-Big-on-a-Deepwater-Boom.html

From Oilprice.com

It bodes well for Borders.

LTT

Hi Gus0,

Thanks for that, sounds promising and more importantly doable within the grounds of reality. Hopefully they will get this deal sorted in early 2025 and get a rig down there to appraise before Navitas starts kicking off!

Once that’s done they can start the ball rolling on an EIS and FDP for when Sea Lion is up and running. No doubt in the 70/30 scenario we would have to raise at some point if all we get is a free carry on the drilling, but from a base of 7p+ it would be so much less dilutive.

Thanks a lot

LTT