Member Info for longtermthinker

Oscar, I’d hope if OM dropped this side of Christmas we’d be at 20p+ .

With a new date of FID set for mid 2025, and Navitas having reworked the numbers, increased reserves and are talking about a much bigger development. Funding will be on the cards IMHO, they had the new reserves document done for a reason, I feel the cap will be passed around in Q1 2025 🤔

LTT

Mogger,

I just noticed your list LOL.

Very funny indeed.

LTT

Oscar, Sam didn’t blink, he was looking after shareholders best interests. It will be easy with hindsight, once we have 65m in the back, to say what a waste of money the insurance was, but imagine if for some insane reason OM went the other way, then we would be bestowing high praise!

Thanks the thing about insurance, it seems a waste of money until you have to make a claim!

Interesting to read what people would take as a buyout. Sure the expectations of what would be an acceptable offer will change once OM comes in; funding drops; FID is done and the FPSO contract has been signed. Then we have the news flow ramping up and the rig on the way, what would you be happy to accept then, knowing after a few wells, first oil. It will be interesting to see what happens to Navitas once first oil on Shenandoah comes in 🤔

To my, more simple mind, Navitas could have taken the whole shooting match when Harbour walked away, RKH where on there knees and they could have had everything for $100m. Why didn’t they do it then, either they couldn’t or just didn’t want to.

LTT

R1234, they are saying that quantity is too small not that condensate doesn’t have a value. The quantities in Darwin could easily support a stand alone development if Borders can get a partner, it‘s just that it needs a drill on another couple of prospect to see if it’s worth investing in the whole acreage, even though they have said the can develop it alone and get payback in 2 or 3 years.

To be honest I think if they are serious they should do another study on the development scenario as costs have moved on as Navitas have noted, so some reworked numbers would be useful, with a bit more openness on the rig costs shared or going it alone.

LTT

Plus Navitas are deal makers, they bring in partners, they don’t take them out. At this point they don’t have the cash and by the time they do, we will be in a much better position financially with OM dropping and FID closer, or maybe even done.

Plus Sam and RKH are well in with the Falklands Gov, FIG are not going to allow an Israel consortium to control the oil industry in the Falklands. IMHO.

Navitas will bring in a partner, if you look at all there investments in oil, almost if not all have multiple players to share the risk/reward profile, why should Sea Lion be any different.

Regards LTT

Hope you are right Gus, it may be a 3 well project, but it will still need an EIS and a public consultation on it, that will realistically take a couple of years don’t you 🤔 then there is long lead items not to mention a rig and an FPSO. Of course to anyone with deep pockets anything is possible so I will keep my fingers crossed, but keep my expectations tempered. Good luck to us all.

LTT

Chess, I’m not so sure Sea Lion is a sideshow. Shenandoah is all but complete, funds sorted, wells drilled, completions being completed, everything pretty much in hands bar the delay. No funds to raise, basically connect it up and the cash will come rolling in.

Not sure if you looked at the Investors Presentation from July, saying “Sea Lion- The next big thing” with the pie chart that had about 65% of it attributed to Sea Lion as Navitas’ Discovered resources. It does say to me “Minor sideshow” nor does the commissioning of a Sea Lion Contingent Resources and Discounted Cash Flows Report prepared by NSAI!

Regards LTT

Yes I can see Navitas credibility has been shot to pieces, but their share price doesn’t seem to reflect that 🤔 up another 5% today.

Why hasn’t the market punished them for pushing back FID 6 months, could it be the bigger development, the increased reserves, the lower costs per barrel, the FPSO going into Feed with a MoU signed to include all the i’s dotted and the T’s crossed, to roll it into a firm contract should they get funding and FID.

LTT

Hi Space,

Don’t forget the fund raise and a possible partner coming onboard before the FID. Although they could, as they did with Shenandoah close funding, announce a partner and sanction the project all in one go 🤔.

If nothing else, the talk of the share price plummeting to sub 12p has been unfounded so far. But then, tomorrow is another day, still plenty of time for people to sell and wait until mid 2025 to get back in.

LTT

But Navitas's shareholders do, currently up 3% topping all time highs.

What with Shenandoah coming on stream in Q2 2025 (that could be anywhere from April to June), Navitas will be able to get the money they need to hit the start button on Sea Lion IMHO. Not sure how they will do it, RBL, Bonds, Partners, vendor finance, all have their pros and cons. Sure they know what they are doing. Onwards and upwards.

LTT

Hi Thensoreman, I have to agree, they are now promoting the whole basin and have commissioned a new resource report, this has to bode well. Not to mention the 55k per day by the end of phase 2, that's quite an increase. Presume that will be a bit of the extra costs to upgrade the Aoka Mizu to do the 55k per day, as currently its set up to produce 30k per day.

Also the new plan is for 35 wells for phase 1,2 & 3 with 120k per day. I wonder if they will just keep the rig and continually drill for the next 3 or 4 years once the rig is on site? Originally they said Phase 2 would start 1-2 years after first oil, but with some much drilling to do could they just roll it on.

All in all a positive update IMHO, still feel funding is a non issue, the delay is due to the extensive expansion of the project to 3 phases, it has and is taking a lot more time than expected to firm up everything, now they know they need $1.4b rather than $1.2, they can get cracking.

Lets face it, it would have been a real rookie mistake to have raised $1.2b and then have to come back, cap in hand to the market 6 months later and say, "Please investors, can we have some more!".

As my Dad always said, "Measure twice and cut once".

LTT

I'm afraid I am in the Rookie/Rumblefish camps not, cannot see the board doing a deal to take this company to first oil now. Navitas have just pushed back Sea Lion into mid 2025 for FID and 2027 for first oil. How are Borders going to do anything before 2030? They haven't got a partner, no EIS or FDP, they have an asset that although on paper looks great with prospects galore around, without a drill it's a stranded asset with little hope of a farm in until something else is proven up!

I see the best we can hope for is one of two options;

1. A outright take out, either by a partnership of Navitas and RKH, giving some cash and shares so they have some skin in the game, or someone else, but it would be a low ball offer, say 10p a share. Maybe 15p a share and shares in RKH.

Or

2. Navitas/RKH farm in, take a hefty percentage of Borders and they get a high enough spec'd rig to pop a hole or two before or in-between drilling Sea Lion. Thus firming up Darwin and the acreage before committing.

If neither of those scenarios are not coming, then it will be a long wait and a further fund raise going forward, diluting us shareholders.

However on a positive note, we have the big Canadian investor on board, he won't have taken such a big percentage of the company on a whim, there must be something in the offing. I wish there was another way, but currently i cannot just see it or imagine how it will happen.

Regards LTT

55k production, break even of $24 per barrel, looking at development the whole shooting match with Isobel in the mix, what's not to like and FID happening in mid 2025.

Seems Navitas have everything in hand, plus it will work out better for us as it gives a bit more wiggle room for OM to drop, which will be highly beneficial due to in the increased costs involved, up form $1.2b to $1.4b. our share will increase slightly depending on the Vendor finance and possibility of a partner coming in, but we should be more than covered with the OM and the cash in hand.

It's' great to see Navitas going for a bigger initial production, so our share will be approx 20k per day, which is nothing to be sneezed at with the break even coming down.

Nice one. LTT

I was thinking the same Paul, is this a precursor to them coming to market or an the very least, to get the ball rolling ready for a raise/bond issue in Q1 2025 ?

LTT

Oscar, the investors presentation in July said long lead items had been sorted, Navitas share price is hovering around all time highs, land is set aside for servicing the oil industry.

Are you surmising that there are delays or do you have some insight 🤔. OM could drop any time, also the Letter of comfort could also!

Yes, I can imagine FID and Funding being pushed back into Q2 2025, but FID in September is knocking first oil to 2028 at the earliest 🤔

Regards LTT

Sorry for the late night ramblings, but the more I think about it, I feel Navitas will try to raise the funds sooner rather than later. The reason being, if the Aoka Mizu is our FPSO, they will need proof of the cash before Bluewater end the contract with Prax, which is on a 6month rolling contract that either party can light the fuse on.

I imagine Bluewater might prefer that to happen sooner rather than later as they are making less revenue from the contract with Prax due to a lower oil price, certainly a lot lower revenue in 2024 compared to 2023. So they will possibly be chomping at the bit to get signed up with Navitas. IMHO.

I still recall a Navitas investor’s presentation when the head man at Beacon, waxed lyrically about Gideon and Navitas, saying prior to FID on Shenandoah, Navitas all the cash ready to go, he said, most people in the room wouldn’t appreciate gravitas of that point, but basically it was unheard of in his 30+ years in the industry. Make of that what you will. Right, I’m going to sleep.

LTT

Thenorseman,

Can I kindly ask the meaning of a “Definition Study” as this commenced in October 2023 and concluded on November 11th 2024 when Feed kickoff meetings started.

So what is a “Definition Study” is that something different from “Pre-Feed” ?

Either way, one thing is for sure, they cannot FID without funding, so we need that to take place first. Although they cannot raise funds without a signed off FDP or “A Letter of Comfort”.

Don’t care if FID happens this year, I just want some direction such as, “We are having a bond issue in 1st Q 2025 as a precursor to FID”. All the dots are getting joined up, we just can’t see the pencil lines in between them yet. Hopefully OM drops before the end of the year, that would put us in a much better position for the Fund raise and FID.

LTT

Oscar, why do you say that?🤔 What do you see as the hold-up that would effect their timeline so greatly, the FPSO; the funding; FIG sign off; a partner?

Because if you are correct, than would but first oil into back end of 2027 early 2028, if we are lucky !

I’d be interested in your rationale.

LTT

Morning Alma,

It seems the kingpin will be the FPSO, the Investors Presentation from July stated that long lead items were sorted. I presume a rig has been earmarked also so that just leaves the FPSO.

Although they are now doing Feed on the FPSO, and they have everything in place to commit to a contract, Funding would have to be in place before that is signed off. If Navitas can get funding over the line this side of Christmas it won’t matter if they don’t FID until the new year, they can set the wheels in motion for Bluewater to give the 180 days notice to Prax. If they cannot do that until first half of 2025, then everything will get knocked back if the FPSO takes 18months to 2 years for an upgrade/refit. 🤔

But again, that is all going by the Upstream article, which as you have mentioned in the past, can be a little inaccurate at times.

Suppose all we can hope for is an update next week from Navitas.

KR LTT

Good evening Alma,

So if the rig hire starts from 2nd half 2025, and takes to 2027 to drill the eleventh, that means that the fifth well would be completed around the middle/3Q 2026, which would waiting on the FPSO to arrive in 2027 if the Upstream article is to be believed. 🤔

So either the rig is delayed to back end of 2025 so the 5 wells are completed as the FPSO arrives in 2027 or the wait and refit of the FPSO will be shorter that we think.

LTT