Member Info for longtermthinker

Rookie,

I kind of agree with you, however anyone farming in, would want a slice of the whole average, they wouldn’t just stump up £300m to just drill Darwin! This might give us a bit more leverage, maybe keeping 20% which would be a great. A couple of wells and a loan to first oil would be an incredible result IMHO.

Still feel the most likely scenario is, getting someone to drill an exploration/appraisal on Darwin West to test both Darwin West and another target to check Darwin isn’t a one off, and then if it comes in, they would make an offer for the whole company. No ideal I know, but it would mean whatever percentage we kept hold of would be immensely more valuable after the drill.

LTT

And Navitas are hovering around all time highs again. This is no doubt in anticipation of Shenandoah coming on line in Q2 2025.

OM could drop at any time also.

LTT

How will we be disappointed Aim, we are hoping for FID or some word on funding this side of Christmas but if it doesn’t happen, such is life, I’ll look forward to news in Q1 2025 as once Shenandoah comes on line, there will be no stopping the train then.

Navitas have given no indication what so ever of getting cold feet on Sea Lion, they are forging ahead behind the scenes IMHO.

Interestingly, I was looking at their presentation in July talking about FID in 2024. If you read the part about Shenandoah, they highlight in bold the fact that Shenandoah is delayed to Q2 2025 for first oil. So why didn’t they say, at that time that Sea Lion would slip also? It would have been the perfect opportunity to temper expectations!

To my mind they are trying to get the funding/FID over the line back end of 2024, if it slips, so be it, it won’t be for want of trying.

So sit back, chill, take a break from the BB, come back in Q1 2025 with a “Told you so!” It’s only 2 months away. You’ve said your piece and everyone and I mean EVERYONE, knows your stance on this, that for some strange reason you want it to fail despite holding shares, which in itself is a little strange. Anyone else would have cut their loses, taken the hit and moved on. Crystallised the loss against other stocks they have profited on, as surely you wouldn’t have all your eggs in one basket, wanting this to fail, as that would be just delusional!

LTT

Aim you are right, however it also shows a commitment by FIG to progressing an oil industry in the Falklands, they had their Exco meeting I believe yesterday or today. No idea of the result, but we know that they were discussing the Letter of Comfort and the EIS I presume also.

As you are well aware, Funding and FID are dependant on the FDP and the EIS being ratified, so why are you complaining about proof of progress when there cannot be any until those things have happened?

LTT

All we need now is OM to drop, share price to get to 20p + then maybe RKH buy out Borders for 2.5p a share plus 1 new RKH share for 15 Borders! Borders get shone cash and some near term skin in the games with Sea Lion coming on steam.

Then RKH farm down 65% to Navitas of the new Southern acreage for two exploration wells, one in RKH old acreage adjacent to Borders Darwin and one on Darwin West taking in a deeper target. Wouldn’t that be nice. 👍

LTT

Nick, I’m in total agreement, Navitas have been working away under the radar doing the FDP, EIS and all the long lead items, FPSO studies etc, etc. So you cannot tell me there is a person who has been sat in Israel or Houston, twiddling their thumbs, waiting for the FDP and EIS to be approved so they can get on the phone to drum up some cash!

No, you can bet that person has been speaking in a hushed voice behind closed doors talking up the project and talking about the oodles of cash to be made. It would be common sense, like Navitas doing all the prep for FID. They are not waiting for the EIS and FDP and then trying to source long lead items, a rig, and FPSO etc.

LTT

Aim,

how do you know they are struggling? They cannot go for funding until the EIS and the FDP are signed off, so once FIG have actually said, "The EIS has answered all the questions from the public to our satisfaction and the FDP is good to go." Then and only that can Navitas start the ball rolling on the funding.

Now if you are aware that Navitas has been passing the hat around and they have received a muted response, OR if they haven't done anything on funding and are just waiting for FIG sign-off then that's another matter.

But to say they are struggling when you have no clue is very misleading. At least people are posting links to the positives, you have no proof apart from the share price that says Navitas are struggling, and yet their share price is still within 1-2% of all-time highs.

LTT

Aiminvestor, are you seriously saying you see nothing positive in the links and posts from different posters talking about Navitas forging ahead, and you believe they are working in collusion to raise the share price! LOL

In the same way you cannot influence the share price to the negative, those sharing their finds cannot influence the share price to the positive. If posting such news had such and effect, RKH would be £5 by now! AND you believe they are on the RKH payroll!!!!!!!! LOL

Just out of interest Aim, what do you think of the links to folk working on Sub-sea procurement, FPSO Mooring Design Optimisation for Sea Lion Fields, the shipping of prefab housing down to the Falklands to name but a few? Do you believe it's all fabricated? Or are Navitas doing a PMO, going through the motions to waste money just to walk away?

I am interested to know why you are always shouting that the sky is falling in, when there is so much evidence to the contrary even though the share price stagnates.

KR

LTT

I think it’s pretty amazing that Navitas have kept all this stuff under wraps. They are forging ahead, with tons of things going on behind the scenes and under the radar, coupled with the recent post about pre-fabricated housing being shipped down to the Falklands, one cannot but think this it game on!

Ok, nothing in life is certain except death and taxes, which we are all going to hear about on Wednesday, where taxes and death will both take a hit! Soon it would not be worth working OR dieing ! I feel sorry for business owners whom it seems may take a big hit. But Navitas are going for it in a big way, when you compare them to PMO and then Harbour who sat on it and then walked away!

All the arrows are pointing to Sea Lion going ahead, but no one is making a move. People are holding and nobody is buying, it’s like the spaghetti western gun slinger waiting for the twitch in a finger and then all hell breaks loose!

Well I am holding on till Shenandoah comes online possibly the start of Q2 2025, but I’m hoping for some news before then. FID and funding would be nice this side of Christmas but even if it’s that Navitas are going for a bond issue and sending out a prospectus ready for Q1 2025, that would be a fab result. Fingers crossed, but either way, they can’t keep this quiet for much longer IMHO. Good luck to us all, let’s just hope Rachel doesn’t raid our ISA’s and pension funds!

KR

LTT

But 99icecream, they have known about the delay to Shenandoah since Q1 2024, why would they issue an investors presentation stating FID expected to be 2024?

It would have made sense to temper expectations then. Not now at the eleventh hour!

LTT

Well Aim, your bet on RKH in the past came to nought, so what makes you think you can reverse the trend by being right with your bet this time! 🤔

We shall all see soon enough.

LTT

Aim, Lets get 2024 out of the way without FID, then you can say "I told you so" and then push back you prediction to late 2025 or maybe 2026, as no doubt you would say on the first of January, "Most likely it will be 2026 now..... if at all!".

Why oh why do people read so much into what 3rd parties say. The only people who are in the know are Navitas and maybe RKH, (hence the insurance policy on OM IMHO). Everyone has an opinion and yet Navitas stay quiet. They have said in their Investors Presentation dated July 2024, that FID is PLANNED for 2024, not it will be, it is planned for and on their "Operations" page it says,

"Navitas Petroleum anticipates that a final investment decision (FID) will occur in 2024"

So why are you fixed on a deadline being missed, that is not a deadline! Navitas are working hard, pulling out all the stops to get this over the line, but whether it's Q4 2024 or first half of 2025, it makes no difference. If they want to do this, they could easily wait and fund from Shenandoah when the cash is rolling in, but no, they are trying to do it sooner and my hat is off to them. But let's be clear, Navitas would have walked away long before now if they had lost interest, they are going to take this all the way, be it this year of next when they have a lorra, lorra cash!

Have a great weekend all.

LTT

Another item ticked off the list, they haven't left it to the wire this time! Bodes well for the Exco meeting later this month. License extensions in the bag, so they can concentrate on signing off on the FDP, EIS and the letter of comfort to allow funding to be secure.

Again, not funding would/could be done before the licenses where extended, now that is done it removes another barrier to FID. No doubt once funding and FID is done, the licences will be changed to production/development 35 years.

Onwards and upwards, all we need now it the OM annulment to go in our favour and get $70m in our bank account and it's really game on!

LTT

Morning Anth, gus0,

I suppose if the board expect to be in a much better position within a year, then the minimal raise makes sense. Once the partner comes in, let’s say it’s Navitas, they might offer an exploration and an appraisal well for say 50% of the acreage. At such a time, the share price would be multiples of today, so that would be the time to raise to secure funds for the next couple of years. Then after drilling, when the wells come in, Navitas offers a deal similar to RKH, loan to cover pre and post FID to first oil. Borders would then have multiple options, raise further, are sit back as RKH have done, or even farm down say 20% for cash, as the value will be more proven and substantial.

Or another scenario is Navitas or similar, after the appraisal/exploration well, absorb or buy out Borders. Not the best scenario, but still it would be at a much great share price than today. Exciting times are ahead me thinks.

LTT

MD, Aim was being facetious, he was meaning everything is going to plan for funding and FID before the end of 2024, but puts the subject heading 12.8p.

I wouldn’t worry about it.

LTT

I'm up for that Thenorseman! LOL

Maybe though we should talk Sam into having an AGM in London to accommodate the large number of shareholders coming next year IF we get FID before then! Think there will be quite a few making the journey if we have funding in the bag; FID done and dusted; FPSO heading to dry dock for a refit and a rig booked! Not to mention boots on the ground in the Falklands getting the islands ready for everything that is to come!

KR

LTT

Ovets, there is something strange about the link, if I click the link and scroll down I get the extra highlighted text;

"Navitas' experience and prior significant investment will enable the big step to FID in December 2024"

however if I just type Navitas in the browser and head there through that, I get the;

"Sea Lion is a significant oil discovery located 220km north of the Falkland Islands. Navitas Petroleum is promoting a development plan for the project and a financing package."

So I believe the link may have doctored! Even so on the Navitas website is still says;

"Navitas Petroleum anticipates that a final investment decision (FID) will occur in 2024."

So it's all good in my books.

LTT

Aim, if you believe we are on the Titanic, and it’s only heading one way, why haven’t you abandoned ship? I think it’s very sad that you seem to post with glee that RKH will be sub 13p at Christmas and no FID in 2025 in your opinion. You really are a glass half empty sort, you complain about people looking for the positives, yet you are the opposite, always jumping on the negatives.

Nobody knows why there was a big seller. He sold 1 percent of his holder, but he kept 2.7 percent, so not bailing entirely. I notice you don’t mention that.

LTT

But what is the 1m trade then a -1m trade, then a 1.7m trade then a -1.7m trade?

Is it fat fingers typing 10k and they put 1m by mistake and then thought "Oh dear" and quickly cancelled it? Either way there has been a lot of trades today and Navitas again closed up almost 1 percent, hovering around that all time high.

Also, have to agree with Citizen, this puts RKH in a very comfortable position should Navitas start putting feelers out, testing the market for a bond issue from November once the FDP and the EIS are hopefully signed off. Of course we may have the annulment result by then and the 65m in the bank. It's Santa finally visiting RKH this year or are we going to find a lump of coal in our stockings! Oh come to think of it, it wouldn't be coal, we are barrelling towards net zero, the coal is heading to China and India, so we can smugly say we are on that path, while having our carbon footprint outsourced!

Regards LTT

She was being noncommittal like politicians do all the time, plus she was talking about the new role she was taking on. It would be pretty unprofessional to start talking about giving the go ahead to an oil industry that will change the Islands forever before the Exco meeting later this month.

I cannot imagine the Falklands people going back on the development, they have signed off on the previous EIS that PMO presented and were all ready for FID, so what has changed, the population hasn't grown and the development plan is more eco and leaner. Why would they vote No to oil. Yes there will be reservations, and concerns, but that will all be answered in the EIS. Plus the public consultation is just that, they consult the public, they are not asking them to vote yes or no. The FIG can take onboard the concerns of everyone, but the final say is with them.

Why would they be hiring a new Director of Natural Resources on a pretty high salary (compare two other roles of the website in the Falklands), with Oil and gas experience if they were not going ahead? As Boot says, why have they been going down this road for the past 20 years for them to back out now?

The bottom line is they need this to survive, to get the tax revenues in and create a Sovereign Wealth fund for generations to come (something UK Gov should have done!), without it, they will gradually lose their number one natural resource, their young people who will gradually move away, thus getting to a point where everyone is in the 70's on the islands and it will not longer be sustainable. The oil industry will no doubt bring issues and problems, bit is will also bring in money, innovation, jobs, a future for many young people who's only option was farming, fishing or going to Uni in the UK and never coming back!

Also, the last update from Navitas was in July, they reiterated FID 2024. What RKH board say to Upstream, in their annual

reports and updates is irrelevant, Navitas are in the drivers seat, RKH are along for the ride, and when Navitas say jump, RKH's reply is, "How high?". However, this is not a reason to jump on Sam and the board, with the old, "What have they been doing, what are they doing, blah, blah, blah, moan, moan, moan!" If you want to know that, just ask them, they will be happy to talk about it with you.

What I am getting at is, as far as I am concerned, Navitas are doing everything they can to get to FID in 2024, they have said nothing to make me think otherwise. Of course they could announce tomorrow that they expect FID in first half of 2025 now due to Shenandoah delays; waiting for Shenandoah to come on stream, when the cash is coming in by the bucket load, and that will be understandable. But at this moment in time, as Navitas is hovering around a new all time high, there doesn't seem to be a sniff of bad or negative news. Let's wait and see eh, only a couple of months to wait, then we will be either jumping for joy or holding our heads in our hand