Member Info for longtermthinker

I am with Alma on this one, we have to hear from RKH by the end of the month that the license has been renewed/extended. I'd like to think they have applied for the license to be renewed, but FIG have quite a bit on their plate at the minute, sorting the EIS, FDP, comfort letter to name but a few things that must be on their "To Do List".

It would be very nice indeed to hear news from Navitas at the same time on funding. I was actually just going to write that I thoughts Navitas would have a blowout RNS and announce everything in one go, but I realise that would be impossible.

Even if they had lined up funding in principle they would need the EIS and the FDP signed off and they would also need to have Vendor finance, oil trader finance AND RKH share of costs secured before going for a bond issue. I cannot seem them keeping that under the radar. Plus RKH would need the funds from OM to be able to support the Funding. I realise that could come at anytime, but it could also come in January 2025!

I am unsure how Navitas are going to do it without RKH's share of costs in the bank. Of course once the funding is secured, they I see everything happening very fast, a partner coming onboard as FID is signed off, the Ian Ramsey and Team Ex-Murphy jumping into action, plus news of when boots would hit the ground, rig contracts, when the FPSO is heading for it's refit, etc, etc, etc. Thick and fast IMHO.

However, it's currently a toss of a coin, heads Navitas FID 2024, tales they announce a delay in in their 26th November results to Q1 2025. This would be totally understandable considering the delay with Shenandoah, but the market won't like it and OIL's predictions of 13p December 2024 might come to pass, or maybe even lower! If is does come to pass, i'd have to see what progress as been made as to whether I would take advantage of the lower share price or just stay where I am. It's a tough call.

Have a good weekend all, the sun is shining.

LTT

Well if it gets to 12p it would be a great opportunity to bed and breakfast large share holdings bought at much higher prices, to lock in the capital losses to offset against capital gains that could come as the share price rises into first oil in 2026. If we follow the pattern of Navitas we can expect a tripling of the share price 🤔

I wonder if that is why Godders was uber negative, talking down the share price, not because he wants it to fail, it’s so he could lock in losses by selling and buying back. It would make a lot of sense. He wouldn’t have, what was it, 4m+ shares all held in tax free isa’s! Why let the whole lot ride us to your break even and then have to pay tax on gains after that! The smart move would be to sell and buy them back.

Anyway, we are where we are, nobody buying, no one of consequence selling either. Just waiting, keeping their powder dry.

LTT

Morning Anth72,

I am encouraged by Harry talking about drilling a target, appraising, rather than going for the whole development route as that would be a non starter till 2027 at the earliest. This leads into gus0 comments that he could envisage Navitas coming onboard.

However, we are still not out of the wood with regards a takeover, anything above 6p -10p (I know it would be so disappointing) the big holders might bite their hand off! A three to five times return now beats a twenty times return sometime in the future, but cannot confirm when or if it will ever happen!

One saving grace is, would FIG allow anyone to buy out Borders at this current time, with them 100% occupied with getting Sea Lion to FID. I think not, which means FID first, which by default would give an uplift in Borders share price so at least any buyout of farm in would start from a higher share price.

LTT

Why are you exceptionally concerned Aim, you called this a Turd a few posts ago! I thought you wanted this to fail, so why not sit back and relax, there is nothing to see here until 2025 when you can shout from the rooftops, "I told you so, I was right all along".

I don't know if we will make funding and FID in 2024, I hope we are going to, I believe Navitas at least in July, believed they were going to, but nothing is certain. News will come when it's good a ready and no doubt out of the blue and then the market will play catch up, so chill and take a break. If you wanted stability you should have bought into a bluechip!

KR

LTT

Navitas is up 3% at this moment in time, broken an all time high. It bodes well for funding.

Onwards and upwards for both Navitas and RKH.

LTT

I’m surprised it hasn’t made more of a stir on here! I am sharing the link below. This is fabulous news, Andrea has been behind the Falklands developing their oil industry 100%, getting the FIG up to speed for oil readiness. With a bit of luck she will sign off the FDP and the EIS before taking on her new role, sorting out a Letter of Comfort before she heads out the door in 2025. But then, why would you need a comfort letter with her becoming the new Chief Executive, she will drag and stragglers not on board, kicking and screaming to get to first oil and fill up the coffers with royalties and corporate taxes.

What a time to take on the role and be a transformational force for the islander’s.

Best of luck to Andrea Clausen 👍😊

https://en.mercopress.com/2024/10/03/falkland-islands-dr.-andrea-clausen-new-chief-executive

That’s great news Tincan, I have seen quite a few videos of her talking about oil and development and she is behind it 100%.

Hopefully she will sign off the EIS and FDP for Navitas with a comfort letter prior to her new role in 2025. Then she will grab the bull by the horns and drag everyone along to get to first oil.

Really great news

LTT

But Aim, you have just called RKH a turd, how is it possible you are so totally negative and still remain invested and make such a statement.

You imagine everyone is like you, bought into the rise, then bought more, dreaming of fast cars and a yacht in the med, then you tried to catch a falling knife and got your fingers well and truly cut. We all have a story, there will be good, the bad and the downright ugly, but only you are so desperate for RKH to fail at every turn.

I think you should take some time off, as you seem to be a bit too invested, both literally and metaphorically. No amount of positive posts countering your negative will change the outcome of the next 3 months, so why not take a break as you’ve said your peace and come back with a smug told you so in January if nothing moves forward.

LTT

OIL,

WOW, 13p 2024 m, and 16p Dec 2025! I really hope not!

Cannot see it myself, of course some black swan event could come to pass and blind side everyone, but apart from that I see 20p on an OM in our favor and some news on funding, FPSO / Rig contracts and maybe 30p+ if they FID this side of Christmas, as this would signal that not only has Navitas said they would FID in 2024, which could be just hot air, but the have actually done it and shows their commitment. More importantly it then puts them on track to reach first oil by late 2026 which would be a real message to the market and investors that Navitas is a “Can Do” company.

But we shall see.

LTT

Morning Gus,

I’d like to know what form a deal would take, would it be a farm-in with a free carry to first oil or would be receive some back costs in the deal?

Suppose what I’m getting at is, will it be a deal like Navitas & RKH where they gave up 65% of the whole acreage for a loan at 8% to FID, then an interest free loan for most of the costs (from memory RKH have to find 30% of money not secured by 3rd party debt, but don’t quote me!) or will we get some upfront cash?

To my mind we are in a similar position to RKH but with far less historical work done. I think with appraisals and feed, etc, all told there was almost $1b spent which Navitas didn’t pay a penny for. So how can we expect to receive anything more than what RKH did 🤔.

Cheers LTT

Hi Rookie1,

I was thinking the same, keep 30%, the partner does an appraisal, then does us a loan for our share of development and it’s game on! Similar to the deal done between Navitas and RKH, cannot see a partner offering up cash or anything more than that. But we shall see. It all kicks off when Sea Lion gets FID. 👍

LTT

I think the “Forcibly removed” 1000 inhabitants had something to do with it 🤔.

LTT

I think someone will farm-in and share the rig now, drill 2 wells one on Darwin East to confirm the HUGENESS of the Darwin development and then drill a 2nd target, who knows, by the time that happens, RKH might be in a position to drill one of their lookalike prospects nearby!

The thing is the cost of the farm-in. What would it cost to drill 1 or 2 wells in Borders acreage? $200m ? So what would Borders have to give up for that, 50% of the acreage. Suppose it's immaterial as anyone farming in would cause a share price spike either way. So bring it on, a buy out or a stake, either is fine for me, although of course to be in for the drill would be better.

With a fair wind, we might get the drill in first before Sea Lion development drilling so they have plenty of time to analysis the results. Now wouldn't that put a cat amongst the pigeons!

LTT

I was in two minds about the fund raise, but as Harry Baker has put his hand in his pocket rather than just wait for options and incentives to kick in, I am airing to this being a positive. They have got the funds to survive for another year and can show FIG they can pay for the licenses and be a going concern for that year, just a quick, cost-effective and easy fund raise.

I also found the comment below interesting ;

"We are seeking to bring in a partner to move Darwin forward by either testing Darwin East or drilling another target"

I have always thought that FIG wouldn't allow two rigs to drill in the north and south at the same time, the helicopter cover would be insufficient for a start, without even considering the logictics of supplies, mud, pipes, use of the dock, etc. They will have all on to support the development of Sea Lion.

However the comment above has got me thinking, it makes a lot of sense to drill Darwin East and/or another target. If Navitas can only secure a high spec deep water rig from Africa ( the costs saving on mob costs might just swing it, plus Harry said there were rigs coming available 2025), then it would make sense for them to share it with someone who wants a slice of Borders/Darwin, but wants to be certain the southern basin is worth investing in. I know we all believe it's a no brainer, but the accountants and such will want proof from the drill bit, seismic can only tell you so much, just look at Desire, they missed everything with the drill!!!!!!!

So I have put my money where my mouth is. I sold out almost all my holding a couple of months ago, but have come back into the fold. Still don't see Darwin getting developed until 2027 at the earliest considering the pace that FIG work at and they will need an EIS and an FDP to get it over the line, and we know that is a 1500 page document. However, to have a rig heading down to Sea Lion that will also drill Darwin East and the euphoria of that, I can see Borders, trebling and then some from these lows. Not to mention if FID comes on Sea Lion this year!

Good luck to us all.

LTT

Yes flipper56, Navitas are up over 5% and within spitting distance of breaking through their all time high. I wonder what is causing it, it’s not like they have made any statements about Sea Lion, it all seems to have come from RKH. Still it bodes well. Will be very happy if we take a similar trajectory, 3 times the share price from now to first oil. I’d be happy with that for a starter.

LTT

Sorry BlooBird, I I was just going from the EIS which said;

"The FPSO with a detachable turret and gas lift was ultimately selected by POEPL for the (then) Phase 1 Development because:

The use of gas lift provides reliability (no rotating equipment in the wells) and acceptable flow performance when compared with the use of ESPs,

Inclusion of production and storage on an FPSO avoids the need for two infield installations which:

Minimises the number of crude transfers between the producing, storage and export processes i.e. FPSO direct to oil tanker rather than TLP to FSO to oil tanker, and thus reduces the risk of oil spill, and

Reduces the potential risk of collision with just a single infield installation and reduced resupply requirement."

No sure of the semantics of a detachable and disconnect-able turret are, but the Aoka Mizu seems to be our FPSO of choice for some reason.

By the way, interesting uptick in trading today, over 1m shares, makes you realise that when some definite news of FID or Funding or OM drops, we should see a nice tick up to the late teens or maybe even early twenties!

LTT

LOL, that is over 35 years though!

However that is just for starters, once Sea Lion is up and running, there are nearby prospects that could be tied back to the FPSO, which is the reason they want a detachable turret, so they can swap out the Aoko Mizu for a bigger one. Also there is Isobel that could be bigger than Sea Lion! As per the North Sea, there are no such things as oil fields in isolation, there would be many more smaller prospects all around the basin.

So FIG are going to be coining it in once production gets underway. I am just interested to know what the drilling rig will do once it's finished it's 11 wells to get Sea Lion going. Will is sail away or hang around and drill Isobel and appraise. Navitas by the time they start drilling Sea Lion (in perfect world Q1 2026) they will have been in production on Shenandoah for almost a year, which would bring revenues of about $1.1b to Navitas.

This is why I'm thinking there will be another player onboard prior to FID and Funding, to share the costs of Sea Lion, but also share the costs of further development in the North Falklands Basin. Get someone in now who will go the whole distance.

LTT

It would be good to see us break 15p, but think we would have to hear something from Navitas or get the OM annulment put to bed before that could happen.

LTT

MD you can buy the Telegram from a newsagents and read the article, I did.

Interesting timing, I wonder why now, are FiG about to sign off on the project to leave Navitas free to do what they do best, show me the money!

LTT

Chess, how do you know they haven’t got everything lined up? The Upstream articles are hearsay and speculation, and comments from RKH, I don’t recall reading one that says, “ Navitas says they are having difficulties raising finance” or “ Navitas’s Gideon says after 2, no 3 years of doing the rounds, they are no closer to securing finance!”

Of course I haven’t read every article or comment by Navitas, so if I have missed something, please point me in the right direction.

Personally, I give Navitas the benefit of doubt, they have really done an amazing job reworking the numbers, coming up with a viable FDP, hiring a great team in a relatively short space of time, submitting the EIS and pressuring FIG to up the ante. So I’d like to think they are doing the same behind the scenes with regards to finance, lining everything up.

As you say, we will know soon enough, but whether it’s late 2024 or early 2025, it makes no difference to me, as long as they get the finance and go for FID.

Have a good weekend

LTT