Member Info for longtermthinker

Great find again Mogger, most appreciated, I particularly like this bit;

“Failure to set aside sufficient land for hydrocarbons development projects would cause

difficulties to the delivery of the Sea Lion project with detrimental impacts on the

economy of the Falkland Islands.”

If ever you wanted it spelt out why Sea Lion is going ahead, there you have it.

LTT

Well Oscar, if you are right, the negative impact of a delayed FID my be offset by news that a bond issue for $XXXm and the OM award getting signed off with us getting an extra €65m in the bank might just put us into the high teens ready for FID in the New Year. 🤔

LTT

It was a link posted by kindly posted by Mogger on the 26th of September, and below is a link to the article

https://feed.stamdata.com/documents/NO0012740234_IB_01_20240228.pdf

LTT

Of course I meant “another secretive company”.

Thinking about it further, maybe both are correct, the MoU was issued in Oct 2023 with the definition study being commissioned and now the definition study has been completed they have started Feed on the 11th of November as stated in the Upstream article. 🤔

Maybe they got confused with Oct 2023 and 2024 as the start date for the “definition study” as cannot imagine they could complete that in a month. But then I have no idea of how long such a study takes.

Either way, it’s good to see the dots being joined up.

Regards LTT

I re-read the Upstream article kindly posted by Thenorseman and something seemed not quite right, in particular the date of the MoU, as the Upstream article says;

“The MoU comprises a definition study which has been completed and FEED work that began on 11 November 2024. The MoU also sets out the conditions under which a full FPSO contract can be concluded.“

However I found a post by Mogger posted in September that says the MoU was actually issued almost a year earlier, this is taken from Aurelia Energy N.V. Quarterly report For the period ended December 31, 2023;

“On October 15, 2023 a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has been signed with a client for the possible charter of the FPSO Aoka Mizu. The MoU comprise a Definition Study and FEED. Furthermore it sets out the conditions under which a contract can be concluded.”

So is this more sloppy journalism from Upstream or is a different secretive whom has done Feed and signed a MoU for the Aoka Mizu 🤔

A cannot help but be a little confused 🫤

LTT

Haven’t seen us break 14p for some time, what’s going ok🤔 saying that I’m not seeing what is happening in real time, so we may be back below 14p already 😢

😉

LTT

LOL, you really have it in for the Uni crowd, they are into Crypto Chess, they would play here at all.

Once we have OM and FID we will be 20p + IMHO, then you are right, it might be an idea to go for a US listing if we are not bought out or taken private. Look at Harbour, they did an incredible deal, double their production and then some, paying a good div and doing deals, yet the cannot get above and hold £3 a share. People on the BB talking about value, but the bottom line is, it’s only valued at what people are prepared to pay. Plus it’s traded up and down, like a yoyo.

LTT

Come to think of it, that must be what Blue Water are waiting for to end the contract with Prax and invoke the 180 day contract end. They are waiting for Navitas to secure funding and FID the project THEN pull the plug.

It makes total sense, they are happy to allow the Aoka to stay on the rolling contract and keep the cash coming in. But once Navitas FID, they will end the contract and in 180 days say goodbye and head off for refit, knowing Navitas are good for it.

LTT

Thenorseman,

Thank you for sharing the upstream article, you were on the money some time ago with the Aoka Mizu, and the negotiations with the MoU are all ready to go, so no waiting years to conclude the details.

It’s seems that the Hurricane field is coming to its end of life, what with the oil price coming down and possibly heading lower in the New Year once Trump is in. Also the ever increasing water cut, not to mention the U.K. tax regime. Wouldn’t be surprised to hear that Prax are calling it a day sooner rather than later, at which point Navitas will have to be officially named.

The path is twisting and returning, but the direction is sound. Roll on FDP and funding. Then it truly will be game on. 👍

LTT

Nice one Mogger.

"ExCo noted that Navitas has committed to making several amendments to the EIS as a result of the representations made and republishing the EIS in line with guidance. And Navitas made a request to MercoPress, not so use old pictures that show PMO holding interest in their acreage!"

LOL

On a more serious note, so this means that Exco have basically signed off on the EIS and the amendments can be added later, is that correct?

So we are now waiting on sign off of the Field Development Plan. Then Navitas and RKH are either off to the races, or we are hearing that the starters pistol has been delayed whilst they have a whip around for some bullets, which might have to wait till the New Year as Santa has enough on this plate!

LTT

still, i have to agree, we all have positive and negative views, contemplating the various outcomes and scenarios that will unfold, everyone has a valid point of view, it’s just how they put it across that runs people up the wrong way, be it moaning or in a condescending manner.

it reminds me a little of my friends in secondary school. we were in the first year at the big school and two of my friends came barrelling down the corridor, in a panic. “what’s up i enquired?”,

“it’s the sixth formers, they are chasing us and want to beat us up!!!!!” they replied.

“gosh, why would they want to do that?” i said.

to which they replied, “because we called them lanky ****5!”

🤔

another week starts tomorrow, it’s all down hill to christmas. ltt

I am watching with interest the Rosebank case, I think the Judge will throw it back to Milliband, saying it was unlawful to approve it without taking into account the emissions, so they have to update the EIS to include them and submit again. That will but Ed in a tough place!

The other thing that is interesting is Equinor say they are spending $2.2B and creating 4000 jobs. Maybe that is on the life of the field or maybe it’s a bigger initial development, but it shows what a great prospect Sea Lion is at $1.2B to first oil not to mention a similar size prospect in Isobel nearby.

Thank goodness Navitas have submitted an EIS that included the emissions for the end user!

LTT

Chess, why are you so concerned with FID happening in 2024 and the funding to happening . Then saying FID 2025/26?

Are you aware that Navitas becomes a whole different beast from Q2 2025, if you look at their investors presentation you get some idea of the earnings they will have, surely if they had difficulty getting funding now after 3 years of trying, wouldn’t they go for RBL 🤔

I’m with Thenorseman on this, why would Navitas keep plugging away if the show stopper was funding?🤔 Their remit is to do deals, they are not as such an oil company, they are deal makers, they will have Vendor finance to the tune of 30/40% in the bag, maybe 20% oil trader finance. So that leaves approx. $600m to find. As was pointed out by Alma, they raised $100m in a blink without a fanfare.

If they were to bring in a partner for 25% the percentage they need to raise becomes even smaller, so it’s not the ten times you suggested by a long shot.

So where it’s 2024 or 2025, it makes no difference, all we know for sure is Navitas has said they would TRY to FID in 2024, they didn’t say they WILL, and RKH has said Funding and the Political issues keep investors and suppliers away!

My money is on Funding gets rolling in 2024, sealed along with FID in Q1 2025. But that is why I’m invested, if I thought this would be an issue I would be out and moving on to pastures new, then come back when funding was in the bag, which is no doubt what the bigger players are waiting for. Which makes me wonder why a Chess player such as yourself is waiting around here if you think Funding is such a show stopper and could be pushed back to 2026?

KR

LTT

Oscar, I would have thought the opposite 🤔 take out the insurance so RKH can use it as collateral to get FID over the line, or at the very least start the fundraising, confident that Sam has the funds guaranteed to come in at some point in the future.

LTT

Nice one Mogger, et all for sharing recent finds, WOW, it would be a pretty strange hire if FIG were not going to sign off on the EIS, FDP and the development of Sea Lion as a whole!

Navitas may not get this over the line for Christmas, but it won't be for want of trying. First quarter seems like odds on, with the end of this year a rank outsider with 100 to 1 odds IMHO.

With still 6 weeks to go before they run out of time, who is taking the gamble! LOL, well actually we all are. However, all the dots are joining up, new hires; FPSO earmarked; EIS getting close; FDP all but ready; prefabricated accommodation being shipped down to the falklands to name but a few things that are getting ticked off.

Surely, even the most jaded individual must see that FIG are getting ready to jump in head first and Navitas are in the pool already, at the deep end, waiting with open arms to support and encourage where needed! I feel it is not longer a matter of IF, it's a matter of when Navitas fires the starter gun, be it this year or early next, baring a black sawn event, the Sea Lion will roar. IMHO

LTT

Navitas remit;

"Navitas Petroleum has a demonstrated track record of acquiring, financing and developing high-impact oil and gas projects. A key focus of Navitas Petroleum’s strategy is identifying premier assets with proven resources, and financing and developing them alongside best-in-class partners to generate significant shareholder value."

Interestingly I never noticed that before, of course I was aware they got in partners to share the load, and I imagined Navitas would get vendor finance and maybe some oil trader finance to go along with the bond issue, but that line, "alongside best in class partners" gets me thinking.

They intimated that another player might come onboard pre/post FID, so if funding was an issue, surely they would line up a partner to take up some of the slack and thus reduce the money to be raised in bonds!

To my mind the only possible spanner in the works might be FIG, if they are outsourcing the review of the EIS replies they were not happy with, it might be December before that get the EIS signed off, which would leave limited time to get everything ready for the end of 2024. But the good news will be the possibility of OM dropping and then all hands to the pumps in 1st Q 2025.

Just a thought.

LTT

Seems we are waiting for Navitas to flinch and go for their gun before we make a move!

Once the EIS and the FDP are ratified, then Navitas can go for funding. Maybe they have everything lined up or they will wait till Shenandoah comes online Q2 2024, all bets are off as to what they will do, but the clock is ticking and the spanner in the works could be FIG outsourcing folk to look at Navitas’s amendments.

Whether it’s Q4 2024 or Q2 2025, once Navitas hits the GO button all hell with break loose and Borders will be dragged up with RKH. Borders will most likely rise percentage wise much more than RKH, which is why I am here. If Navitas takes a stake in Borders offering a drill in the next campaign this will be 10p+ in a blink IMHO.

But for now we wait with bated breath.

LTT

Aiminvestor,

The EIS is a major document and it is not a given, if you had taken time to review it you would have seen that it needed extensive updates and additions. Without this document being ratified there is no FDP, without the FDP there is no funding. It smacks of the “For want of a nail, the kingdom was lost”.

You have an opinion, I get that, but to say the EIS is just a formality is very shortsighted. And how do you know funding is a blocker? From some caveat RKH adds to every annual report, you might as well roll out the “Political risk” card also as you always say that too. The Upstream article again is from RKH point of view, nowhere have Navitas stated they are struggling to find funding, in fact they haven’t said much of anything, yet they have hired a team; done feed of an FPSO; submitted an EIS and made additions and amendments; have an FDP all but ready to go along with a thousand other things that need ticking off, but without saying a word they are doing it.

What makes you so sure that funding is an afterthought? You also seem to conveniently forget Shenandoah is due to come online in Q2 2025. Once it comes online you don’t think they will be able to raise cash on the back of that company changing production?

LTT

I see us in the 20p range on or just after FID, a 50% rise would do nicely for a start.

My reasoning is, we have been in this position before, always the bridesmaid, never the bride. We have cried Wolf so many times, even saying, the Wolf is on the horizon and surely will come soon, but to no avail.

Many people are tired of this and who can blame them. Even AIM is justified in saying we have heard it all before!

However, should FID come to pass, be it Q4 2024 or by Q2 2025, I feel it will be a pivotal point in the RKH journey. FID means its game on, that everything is in place to get the ball rolling, and rolling it will to first oil. Once the papers start talking up the dream, the pot of black gold that will make the Islanders rich, folk will want to get a slice of that. It will then be a steady rise quarter on quarter, as the FPSO heads for refit; as the rig sets sail; when it arrives and spuds the first well, etc, etc. As each milestone is reached, an uptick in the shares will follow IMHO.

We are where we are because it’s all been said before, the believers are already in, (or spreading negativity to buy more) the no believers have walked away to pastures new. But who is on the sidelines just waiting for the starters pistol! More than we think🤔

KR LTT

Nice one Aim, good to see you are joining in with a more positive outlook. Of course I’d love funding and FID to be in the back of the net for Christmas, but as Navitas said, “we anticipate FID will be 2024” they have allowed themselves some wiggle room and let’s face it, once Shenandoah is within spitting distance of firing up, they will probably be able to fund Sea Lion from cash flow.

For what it’s worth I think they might just do it, or at the very least announce they are getting the cash in via and bond issue. Let’s face it, as they say on there website;

“Navitas Petroleum has a demonstrated track record of acquiring, financing and developing high-impact oil and gas projects.”

This is there bag, cannot see them spending almost 3 years in getting all the ducks lined up, and then someone says, “Oh Dear, I thought you were in charge of rounding up the cash!!!!” They will have the Vendor finance all but signed off, North Sea services will be chomping at the bit to get into a new basin with the North Sea suffering death of 1000 cuts! So that just leaves the bond issue and some oil trader finance and maybe a partner. You cannot tell me they haven’t, with all their connections and contacts in the industry been all over this for some time. Plus as has been noted on here, RKH have got an insurance policy should OM go against them. Maybe this was to cover their share of funding either way, it would make a lot of sense.

We shall see what happens over the next few weeks. Hopefully the next news is OM dropping, but if not, we are covered. I wonder if the policy can be put in the funding pot as a kind of IOU to show they are good for the cash so Navitas can forge ahead. 🤔

Interesting times ahead me thinks.

LTT