Member Info for longtermthinker

They are cutting is a bit fine with regards news! At this rate they will have to do a fund raise first, which would not be good at these low share price levels.

LTT

MD,

they are hardly big trades going through, and also it is a little dangerous saying you'll sell the house and stick in on Borders! It's fine if you plan to do that, but by saying it here, you may influence people to invest more than they should, or can afford, thinking you know something they do not.

Yes, once Navitas secure funding and FID Sea Lion, there should be an uptick in the share price and most probably a much bigger percentage rise here, but if Borders haven't raised cash prior to this, then they will jump at the chance on the back of the rise and thus dilute everyone's holding.

Then, unless Navitas takes a chunk of Borders and hires a 5th or 6th Gen Semi-sub, with a promise to drill Darwin, Borders could be left out for a couple of years before anyone can drill in the Southern acreage. Yes, Borders have a plan to drill and develop Darwin, but even if the money came tomorrow, they would need to be the submission of an EIS and an FDP and we all know how long those take to sign off, plus Navitas have a few $100m of feed prepaid by PMO.

So the best scenario is Navitas take a chunk of Borders/Darwin and promise a drill once Sea Lion us up and running with the 11 wells (5 pre first oil) that would put a firecracker under the share price, however it might be some time before they spud of Darwin, possibly 2027 at the earliest, unless of course they drill an appraisal on Darwin first, then it could happen late 2025 or early 2026.

Some interesting time are ahead, that's for sure.

LTT

I am just hoping we get some news from Navitas on funding, FID, EIS and FDP signed off, basically anything that might lift the share price prior to a fund raise, as that will be on the cards before the year is out.

A rising tide lifts all boats so the saying goes, by how much is anyone’s guess. Fingers crossed.

LTT

OIL,

you have made some interesting points that go hand in hand with what Sam said at the AGM, that if HE were in Navitas's shoes, he would go for FID in Q2 2025 as that would be when Shenandoah would come on stream and Navitas would be in a much better position to raise money and would be making a lot of cash, not to mention it would give RKH time to HOPEFULLY know where they were with OM, either have the 65m Euros in the bank, or have less due to part annulment being upheld or they would have lost. Either way, RKH would know what they have to do to get the cash for FID.

However, looking at the speed at which Navitas have progressed with SL so far, they don't strike me as someone who would sit back on there laurels for another 8 or 9 month to get this sorted. Not when they put out tenders for accommodation to be available from Q2 2025. Do you believe that nothing is going to move forward for 9 months? Yes it would be the sensible approach and it might well be the approach they will take for one reason or another, but why would they have put in their July Investors Presentation, FID planned for 2024, in full knowledge that Shenandoah had slipped to Q2 2025. It would have been the perfect timing to say, "Look we planned for 2024, but the timeline has slipped on Shenandoah which in turn has caused our Sea Lion timeline to slip also, and we are looking to FID in Q1 or Q2 2025". They wouldn't have lost face and it would have been the sensible thing to do. Why would they set themselves up for a fall stating 2024?

Of course it might be out of their hands if FIG start dragging their feet; send back the EIS for further review; have funding issues, all these things could put a spanner in the works, but it won't be for the want of trying that Navitas miss their self imposed deadline of late 2024. IMHO.

LTT

Chess, I didn’t say anything about Navitas negotiating the FPSO based on an oil price of $70 or $80. I am sure they will come to some arrangement on that score in good time.

I was saying that the Lancaster field would be less economical as the oil price hovers around $70 and therefore Prax may let the Aoka contract end sooner. Whether the Aoka is our FPSO or not and how far along with a contract they are another matter.

LTT

The current low oil price might just play into our hands, assuming the Aoka Mizu is our FPSO of choice!

Prax said that at $80 oil, the Lancaster field would be economic till mid 2025, then the Aoka would be let go, however with oil around $72 and possibly going lower into the US elections, Prax may have to look at shutting up shop sooner, say Q1 2025. Then the Aoka Mizu can head off on its merry way for refit/ungrade in preparation for redeployment on Sea Lion. 🤔

Of course that is if the Aoka Mizu is the one. What we need is the EIS and FDP approval and then we are off to the races.

LTT

Yes Tincan1995,

that could be one avenue, a rig owner doing a deal with a higher spec rig coming up with no booking and the lure of a nice long contract. It will all depend on supply and demand.

The next hurdle is we are running out of cash, so dilution ahead unless a partner comes in and pays some cash for the privilege!

Regards

LTT

Hi Tincan1995,

I just cannot see it myself, Navitas have screwed suppliers down to get to first oil for $1.2b, they are hardly going to hire a DP 5th or 6th Gen semi-sub at $400k+ per day for over 1.5 years of drilling so Borders can drill one well! Sea Lion only needs a 3rd Gen semi and it will be moored, it won't use the DP to save on fuel/reduce environmental impact.

Stranger things have happened, and maybe if Navitas decides to take a slice of Borders it could be possible, or maybe once the have drilled the 11 wells and let the rig go, they might in the next batch of drilling bring down a more expensive rig to also drill Isobel (which from memory is high pressure) and then head down to Darwin. Of course it's not idea for us share holders as it means drilling of Darwin is 3+years away!

I cannot think for the life of me how Borders are going to get a rig down to drill Darwin prior to Sea Lion, which with a fair wind, should see them FID late 2024/early 2025 and the rig arriving late 2025/early 2026 IF the first oil self imposed timeline does as planned.

Once Navitas have the rig on site drilling, then I cannot imagine FIG being ok with a 2nd rig starting to drill Darwin, the helicopter support, support vessels needed, the mud pipe, the extra use of the dock to support two rigs, again I cannot see that happening.

So, Borders need to pull their finger out now, get a partner and a rig booked for 2025, as if they leave it any later, they are unlikely to be drilling before 2027/28. But never say never, they might yet pull a rabbit out of the hat.

LTT

That’s a fair old spend to walk away from SeaLion 🤔 I wonder where that money has gone!

Still it gives up an idea of what has been spent and thus our share being 35% of that at an interest rate of 8%.

Roll on FID, they we are into the interest free loan territory.

LTT

Aim,

I cannot see FIG pulling out, they really need this to happen, hence pulling out all the stops, hiring a team to get this over the line. Navitas losing their appetite is also highly unlikely, they will have a HUGE amount of cash coming in from Q2 2025 and they need “The next big thing” to go ahead otherwise they would lose credibility. RKH funding is not 100% certain, but the OM result is close with the submission of costs by both parties, even so, should Navitas require RKH share of costs prior to OM I cannot see an issue raising funds to get this over the line. With regards to the oil price, that is a tough one, as we see in recent days it go from almost $80 to under $70 in a blink, fueled by down grades and quite of $60 a barrel for 2025. However, saying that, the US is possibly going to cut interest rates which should give oil a boost, also break even for the project is under $30 and in such a situation, if FIG were faced with the project being in the balance, they could look at reducing the royalties for a period of time.

So although one cannot say it’s 100% on, the odds are stacked in the projects favor and that is were the risk/reward conundrum kicks in.

LTT

Have to agree CitizenTS,

It should all start kicking off soon in Navitas’s July presentation is to be believed, FID 2024.

Fingers crossed.

LTT

That the EIS entire consultation period ends? I know the EIS was submitted to FIG, then there was the consultation period with Ian and Co. doing the rounds of the islands doing talks and answering questions with business and general public. Then there was the submission of questions/queries/concerns.

So are we at the stage where the answers to the questions/queries/concerns has closed and the EIS has been updated and is going to be resubmitted to FIG? 🤔

By the way JEBR, SpaceHoppa, thanks a lot for keeping and eye on OM’s progress and for the info a the timeline. I had to laugh when I read that they declare proceedings closed within 0-367days 😂, you’d think once the costs have been submitted that the rubber stamp would fall pretty much straight away! But I guess the snail/Sloth style pace of the Adhoc committee is in keeping with the whole OM fiasco! But still it’s great to hear that things are progressing. It would be fabulous to get the OM money banked prior to Navitas raising funds and FID.

Regards LTT

But doesn’t have to be below the EPL for 2 quarters for it to kick in, and if it should breach that level for even a day, then it resets apparently.

LTT

Morning Alma,

Yes I remember Stu and his technique, I couldn’t understand it, it was well above my pay grade, but was fascinating to read about. He also sold up and walked away when PMO came on board, said they would never get it over the line and he was right!

So I don’t understand the idea that the Uni students will come in with their pocket money Chess, that’s hardly going to move the shareprice. I realise this is your name for the penny type PI’s and I do understand what you are getting at, but I feel you underestimate the power of the media putting the Falklands into the spotlight should Navitas secure funding and FID.

It’s going to put the project on the map, which has largely been kept under wraps. Navitas have really kept this below the radar, maybe that’s their style of maybe they have been requested by UKGov and FIG to not bang the drum until they are ready to go! It would make a lot of sense, why give Argentina fuel for the fire when they can just wait until FID when everything is ready to “Thunderbirds are go!” It would suit the vendors, the investors who will be weighing into the bonds, and FIG.

Once the funding and FID are done, there is not a lot Argentina can do about it, they can put everyone on their naughty list, cry out to anyone who will listen, but that will be it. They will try to make it as difficult as possible for Navitas, but supply chains and long lead items, rig contract and FPSO contracts, etc, will all be signed off thick and fast, boots should be on the ground from Q3 2025 or maybe sooner. As each bit of news drops, as once FID they won’t be able to keep it quiet, the media will be all over it again.

The only spanner I can see in the works is the Labour Gov, they are barreling down the path to net zero, everything else be damned and although they cannot say no to the FIG “You cannot build an oil industry”, they can however make is difficult. Suppose we will find out for sure over the next 6 months.

LTT

Aim, I fully admit I was sure Harbour taking on and developing Sea Lion was nailed on, a 100% cert, however I still didn't bet the house on it, because that's why you have a balanced portfolio to smooth out the bumps and bad choices along the way.

When Navitas took the reins I added, and when the warrants were offered I took them up also. Now I am in a comfortable place with my holding in RKH. The stars seem to be lining up, everything points to Navitas signing off on this, getting funding and FID, but you are right, nothing is 100% certain in this life, well except Death and Taxes!

So, with the above in mind, we need to place our bets, again not selling Granny, or asking the Missus for a loan or remortgaging the house. But an educated bet for a number of outcomes, be it FID 2024 or in Q2 2025 or even for the possible, but unlikely event of Navitas walking away, and be comfortable with that decision.

My money is on FID 2024 or first half of 2025, Oil is going to be needed for some time and the Falklands have tonnes of the stuff, just sat there waiting for it to be sucked out. RKH want this, Navitas want this, the Falklands NEED this. So what makes you think it won't happen, as the market always says, past performance is not guarantee of future performance. So going on that old adage, RKH could do exceptionally well going against their past performance!

I am just looking at line on the top of this page from City Index, saying "71% of retail investors lose money" but that also means that 29% make some, so you need to ask yourself, "Do ya feel lucky punk, well do ya!"

Regards LTT

Ok Chess, thank you for your candour.

Personally I a not too concerned about the logistics of getting the kit sorted, supplying the Falklands, etc as they have done it before. The rig is a 3rd Gen semi-sub that will be anchored to give a better enviromental footprint rather than a DP semi. These are pretty must available and of course we have team Ian Ramsey on board and this is not their first rodeo!

We just need FID and Funding, but I am in the dark on that front, they might have everything ready to go or they might only now be sounding the water. No one nows and there in lies the choice, invest/hold on to your holding for the event or do as the big professionals do, wait for the certainty and then get it, of course they will possibly lose some of the rise (if any) but they will be more certain of the outcome.

I am happy with my holding as it is, but don't see myself as one of the 85/90% losers and you are invested here also and you are not a loser! So what you are saying is, your skills will mean you take some or all of your profits, meagre as they may be on FID and Funding and then you will walk away and never look back, searching for the next investment.

Well good luck with your investing, I have my strategy that I will adjust depending on various outcomes and scenarios, always better to keep an eye on the ball.

Regards

LTT

But isn’t that why we are here Chess? For Navitas to get this over the line. We can say oil is going to sub $50, Navitas will walk away; a meteor might crash down on the planet and that will be then if it all!

We are here for that chance that RKH and Navitas get it over the line this time and the media frenzy whips up a storm!

Why are you invested here Chess if you don’t mind me asking? You are looking at all the angles, using you Chess skills to be 5 steps ahead. As you say the odds are stacked against all the ducks lining up in the next 3 years, never mind 3 months! So what is making you hold on despite every nerves in your body saying it’s most likely impossible and then to add the meagre returns if it does come to pass from the Uni lot putting a few quid in and the general malaise and negativity towards oil in the markets.

I’m interested to know.

Regards LTT

But Chess, “ they have secured key suppliers and long lead items” as it said in their presentation, surely they cannot tell porkies about that. 🤔

LTT

It's awfully quiet on here, what will be the next bit of news, or are we just waiting for Navitas and RKH to make a move, then we will hope on their coat tails? Hopefully not an a half year report end of Sept followed by a fund raise! With a bit of luck something will happen with Sea Lion prior to that to move the share price north and maybe even a partner coming along. Fingers crossed eh!

LTT

Erm where you meaning "Back to 13p"

Aiminvestors, If I were you I'd just walk away from the BB's for a while, no amount of doom and gloom posting is going to change the share price, I cannot think what you are hoping to achieve by posting such things. It won't make a jot of difference to those who are positive with the outlook for Sea Lion. Come back in January and if FID hasn't happened you can smugly say. "I told you so".

But to imagine that during the past two years of getting everything to this point, that Navitas haven't sounded out the funding would be ludicrous. They have an International Bank involved so at the very least they have thought about it a bit, they have know since the PMO deal that UKEF was a none starter. Navitas are also broken their all time high, that has to bode well for a bond issue for Sea Lion going forward, and that is during an oil price slump and a prediction by Citibank of $60 a barrel in 2025. So I'm not concern about RKH share price so much, I'd be more concerned if Navitas was breaking downwards as that would be a sign things where not going as well as planned.

Let's face it, like it of lump it we are in the hands of Navitas, it's the same for all non-operators. We have to go at Navitas's speed, as we did with PMO, however Navitas's pace is pretty brisk. Ok we don't know where we are with funding, but we know the EIS public consultation is over and the EIS is getting updated with the results of that and should be published shortly. They have requested a "Letter of Comfort" with regards to the FDP; they have secured key suppliers and long lead items; they have got the project costs down to $1.2m to first oil and they have detailed execution plan ready to at close of finance. So what exactly do you want to hear from RKH in an RNS?

So, Aiminvestors, all I can say is,

"Some things in life are bad

They can really make you mad

Other things just make you swear and curse

When you're chewing on life's gristle

Don't grumble, give a whistle

And this'll help things turn out for the best

And.............."

LTT