Member Info for longtermthinker

For a Monday morning after the election!

I see Starmer is doing a pit stop tour of the UK. Nothing about talking with the oil industry though, hopefully they will see sense and water down the investment tax break, they extra 3% would bring in some cash with the investment tax breaks, as at least the oilies would be investing in further production they would ultimately pay tax on, but if the take that away, that would be a final nail in the coffin. How will they power British Energy or whatever it’s called without oil taxes to pay for it!

LTT

Sorry meant the FDP and EIS signed off, the FDP has been in since late 2023 and is sorted bar shouting apparently, so getting that accepted is just a formality.

Only then, once the EIS is done and the FDP is agreed with FIG as a suitable plan, can Navitas go around with the cap to secure funding. I’m not saying that’s when they will start looking for funding, I’d like to imagine, as with Feed, everything is pretty much in place, the bank has already tested the waters as to interest and Navitas will be aware if they need to bring in a 3rd party or there is enough appetite to go it alone. IMHO.

I’m with you SpaceHoppa, it’s not a matter of IF now, it’s just a matter of when. Just hope Labour doesn’t try to make it difficult for the Falklands Gov to get sign off.

Have a good weekend all.

LTT

Morning Space, couldn’t agree more.

Speaking with Sam at the AGM he said if it were him (in Navitas shoes), he would get the FID and the EIS signed off in Oct/Nov, then wait until Shenandoah comes online before funding/FID in Q2 2025. I thought that was a sensible idea and expected that to be the course of action for Navitas.

However, after the recent investors presentation I’m not so sure. Navitas are really striding ahead and I can see them possibly sorting funding, FID even bringing a a third party to add some confidence to the bond issue just before as they did with Shenandoah. It would make a lot of sense.

LTT

Also II think it was DEM who made a very good point about how RKH would be coming onto the radar funds and groups once the MC got above £100m as prior to this they either have no interest or are not allowed to buy.

So I think once we break £100m MC we could easily spring board to 20p+ a share. Onwards and upwards.

Now we have to digest the implcations of a Labour Government and what that will mean for the North Sea and ultimately the Falklands.

Have a good weekend all.

LTT

LTT

I wouldn’t say that Chess, the pdf says “Feed process- Secured key suppliers and long lead items” also we know from the AGM they have a Bank involved. Plus from the Upstream article they say it’s the Aoka Mizu and they have been in talks for over 6 months which must mean a LOI has been signed otherwise why would BlueWater even entertain Navitas.

I feel that the caution aired by RKH is their general cautious stance, point out the positives but temper with the negatives. IMHO. Suppose we will see, however to my mind, we were all thinking it would be knocked back into Q2 or Q3 2025 but they have published again their schedule of FID 2024 first oil end of 2026. They have been at this 2 years, do you honestly believe they are going to come unstuck with the funding? 🤔

LTT

Well, Navitas and Gideon can't be too worried, as the Navitas share price just closed up, just shy of an all-time high, up 2.4% today and 143% this year!

Suppose an article saying Navitas poised for FIG with funding in the bag, doesn't have the same catchy headline as "Finance is an issue". We will just have to wait and see.

LTT

Three and a three quarter years it will have taken Navitas from FID to first oil on Shenandoah.

That is a pretty impressive pace by anyones standards. If you take into account the issues they had with the drilling rig; the incident during construction of the FPS, (note they are constructing an FPS for Shenandoah, not getting a oven ready FPSO that will just need a refit and adapting for Sea Lion). Plus it was kicked off at the back end of Covid which would have played a part in getting things up and running efficiently.

Interestingly also, if found this below;

"HEQ Deepwater, Houston, closed a deal Aug. 25 to acquire a 20% working interest in the ultra-high-pressure Shenandoah development from a Beacon Offshore affiliate. The company was formed this year by Quantum Energy Partners and Houston Energy—a privately held independent oil and gas company operating in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico—with more than $400 million of equity capital commitments from Quantum and management, the company said in an Aug. 30 release.

The buy-in was not surprising, said Mfon Usoro, senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk company, in an Aug. 26 statement after project sanction. “We suspected a dilution of ownership before or at FID to help reduce Beacon and Navitas Petroleum’s cost burden,” she said."

So can we expect a similar scenario? Just before the project funding and FID they announce a partner taking a 20% stake?

I cannot wait to see what Sept/October brings!

LTT

McCloughry,

From talking to Sam at the AGM, he said LOI and been signed with most, if not all suppliers. But he stressed they were non-binding hence no RNS.

I think it’s semantics as to whether you RNS a LOI or not, on a project such as this, securing long lead items, if you state you are doing that, then LOI are part of the process so why would you RNS. Also where would you start and where do you stop? RNS that you have signed for an FPSO is great but do you RNS you have signed a LOI for pipes, mud supply, well heads……. Etc, etc.

No of course not, if the London-based team are ready to do with a detailed plan, they surely must have everything locked in with LOI’s as otherwise how could they be ready to go! 🤔 IMHO

LTT

Morning SpaceHoppa,

“Experienced London-based project team with detailed project execution plan READY TO IMPLIMENT upon closing of finance.”

Yes I liked the above also from the presentation. Navitas will most likely close their funding and announce FID at the same time as they did with Shenandoah, and it sounds like they are chomping as the bit! With all long lead items and suppliers secured it’s just a matter of the starters gun.

Things could move thick and fast from Sept/Oct onwards. Now wouldn’t if be perfect if the annulment ruled in our favor around that time.

LTT

I love the pie chart of page 4. Before anyone says PMO were also were in this position, as HUGE part of their future was tied up in Sea Lion going ahead, however the difference is Navitas have Shenandoah coming on stream Q2 2025, they will be awash with cash.

Also of note is the "Way Forward" on page 12, Actions taken, "Feed process- Secured key suppliers and Long Lead items". They have not said they ARE working on, in discussions with, they have said the have secured. It's pretty positive in my books.

I had expected then, understandably to say FID would be Q2 2025 due to the Shenandoah delays; first oil pushed back to mid 2027, but no, they have tied their flag to the mast reiterating FID 2024, first oil end of 2026.

Either Navitas are insane, or they have everything it place and are just waiting for the EIS, FDP to be approved then the financing package will follow with FID. I can imagine they will do as they did with Shenandoah, financing and FID will occur at the same time. IMHO.

LTT

Hi Gus,

where have you heard about us getting a free carry on a 3 well appraisal campaign? How much will we have to give up of the assets do you think for that to happen?

KR

LTT

Navitas Investors Presentation July 2024 is up on their website, they are still saying 2024 for FID.

LTT

You could argue that Labour might take away the Falklands defence, but that would mean relinquishing the UK‘s foothold into the Antarctic which is never going to happen!

Yes, Labour could make it a little difficult, yes they could go slow with paperwork, they could even suggest that the Falklands don’t develop oil, but they cannot insist and cannot stop them. The Falklands really need this to survive.

LTT

Thenorseman , isn’t it refreshing to have a simple tax and royalty system, AND have the flexibility to reduce or remove the royalties should things change.

The incoming government could learn a thing or too!

LTT

Morning SpaceHoppa,

“In fact the Falklands are on of the most tax efficient places to operate in the world for an oil company.”

And hopefully, sooner rather than later some midcaps will come sniffing around, either to take 20- 30% from Navitas or offer a tasty sum for the Rock. I would prefer that to happen post first oil and with the basin up and running there will be some value to add on with Isobel and the Southern acreage next to Borders. Fingers crossed.

LTT

MD, are the big boys accumulating🤔 If I knew the share price was going to be 5-10p+ I would be loading up in batches of 500k a time up to 4p a share and let the rise be damned knowing I was going to make some cash. But all we are seeing are small trades on the whole.

Now if I knew there was going to be a buy out at say 8p, then I would be buying a little at a time, in dribs and drabs to keep the price down thus maximising my profit. Not saying that is happening, but it’s what I would do if I was in the know.

However I do hope you are right and we see over 5p and 10p soon. Maybe on the back of Sea Lion getting FID and funding sorted ☺️👍

LTT

I am going to regret this, but Aiminvestor your statement ;

“ You absolutely have to sell out on news.”

So what percentage of your holding did you get rid of if everyone ABSOLUTELY has to sell?

LTT

Ian Ramsey and some other Navitas bods are heading to the Falklands for a round of presentations next week, that it if they are not already on their way.

Who better to take questions and talk through any concerns the islanders may have. Navitas is a can do company that is without doubt. Yes there may be some slippage in the FID/Funding, it would make a lot of sense to announce FID and Funding 1st or 2nd Q 2025 when Shenandoah comes on steam, but still Navitas are steaming ahead with things.

The current order of things is to get the EIS public consultation done by 5th August, then they have a backwards and forwards to iron out any issues/concerns which may take up to the end of Sept/October, meanwhile the FDP which has been with FIG a while will get sorted and this is the thing that means the starter gun on funding can be fired. Without a letter from FIG saying the FDP is ok, nobody will touch the project. So the next bit of main news will be that the FDP has been signed off by FIG, then the starter pistol will be fired.

I cannot imagine Navitas will not have folk lined up to take a slice when the above is done. They have a bank waiting in the wings, surely they are testing the appetite already!

LTT

Morning Chess,

If you were to download the boring EIS document and then do a search for Aoka Mizu and Stena Don, you would find them mentioned a few times in the document. Ok they are example vessels but why put them in, why not just say FPSO, or why not the Munin which we know is available and has been for sometime.

The EIS also mentions the FPSO will come from the Middle East, so that implies the FPSO will head there for a refit.

There is a wealth of information in the EIS that when you add to other information in the public domain you can join the dots.

So I am just a little surprised that you haven’t taken the time to look, are at the very least searched through the document with keywords if you don’t want to read the whole thing.

KR

LTT

Chess,

Have you read the EIS? 🤔

LTT