Member Info for longtermthinker

It’s a good sign, but a little misleading as the ambassador has been brought on to do a new roll, nothing to do with the Falklands. They are just rehashing the controversy surrounding the previous deal that was torn up.

LTT

"CAPITAL GAINS TAX

In December 2013, Rockhopper announced that it had reached

an agreement in principle with the Falkland Islands

Government (“FIG”) regarding the timing and quantum of the

Capital Gains Tax (“CGT”) liability due as a result of its farm out

to Premier Oil of a 60% equity interest in its Sea Lion discovery.

The parties agreed in principle that the total CGT payable is

£90 million with payment split into two tranches. The first

payment, equating to £26 million (approximately $41 million),

has now been satisfied. The second payment equates to

£64 million (approximately $107 million) and will now be paid

at the same time as the first royalty payment to FIG from oil

production at Sea Lion.

Constructive discussions continue with FIG to document the

above agreement in principle."

Gosh, they were talking about reaching project sanction in 2015 !!!!!!

LTT

Does anyone know when the EIS is out in the public domain for public consultation?

I am pretty sure Mogger will be on this when it drops, but can’t recall how long between submission and being put out for public consultation. I think from memory there was 42 days for any feedback!

LTT

To be honest I thought monetisation meant, to turn it into money, which would imply a sale of the whole shooting match, but that is just on interpretation.

I think the mention of a rig coming from Nambia makes sense, but even so the mob costs would still be big for a high spec deep water rig. Navitas/RKH wouldn’t want to share an overspec’d rig, the higher day rate on their development drilling would knock their budget well over!

So either we need a sale or a partner with deep pockets, as the $200m budget for the rig seems a bit on the light / optimistic side to me.

Finger crossed something happens soon.

LTT

Hope not Ralph, things are moving forward even if Navitas are not shouting about it, but you a right, someone could come in and make a lowball offer and get the whole shooting match.

I suppose the only thing stopping anyone at the moment is the OM award cash isn’t signed off yet and there is a remote possibility that it will gets partly annulled, then even if we get the whole 80m Euros a good percentage of that could possibly be ring fenced for tax to FIG. Even then Navitas could push FID back and then first oil to 2027/8.

So that is why the share price is where it is, no one wants to takeover now, then find out they have purchased a lemon! Once funding/FID/Partner are on board, that would be the time we become a takeover target, if the share price is still languishing around 15-20p after all that, then someone will start sniffing around for sure.

I wouldn’t be happy, but as I am above my breakeven purchase price I would be ok with 25-30p per share, but I’d much rather see 60p to £1 in a couple of years.

LTT

Hi Ralph,

Suppose that proves Chess’s point in a way, because of a lack of interest in AIM and low valuations, it makes sense, bigger players who see value swoop in and take them for a song.

Fo what’s it worth I can see all oilies going this way over the coming decades, as more people shun oil and gas, investors walk away and banks won’t lend, even though they are flying , buying and consuming things provided by oil!

If RKH is not valued properly once oil starts to flow, it will be snapped up, if not before.

LTT

Hi Paul,

yes it's over two days, today and tomorrow. I emailed RKH about when it was taking place in April. Always get a prompt reply.

Another thing ticked off the list, no more messing about with lawyers and OM after this, it can be put to bed either way and RKH can be ready for the main event, hopefully with cash in the bank to cover their share of costs on FID.

Then onwards and upwards.

LTT

This is it, the Annulment hearing will be in full swing now. Sam and the new CFO will be in the courtroom (well if it is a courtroom, could be a private office for all I know) with their lawyers and ROI lawyers putting their cases.

Although in all honesty I am unsure what actually happens in such a hearing. I would presume all the information has already been supplied and thus they are just getting statements and doing summing ups. Not calling up a last minute star witness who has come forward with new, damning insight!!!!!! Mind you, I wouldn't put is past ROI to try it on, that's if they can be bothered to turn up to the hearing in the first place.

Either way, the die will be cast tomorrow end of play, then we will just have to wait around 3-9months for the decision.

In a perfect would, FIG sign off on the selling of the OM award next month and then amazingly news of the annulment going in our favour comes pretty quickly after that, thus us being 80m euros richer. Hopefully afterwards, Navitas then announce FID, maybe in Sept/Oct and we have our share in the bank and no fund raise necessary! Talk about the ducks lining up ;-)

Regards

LTT

Oilbrat too said no oil field if found in isolation, just look at the NS. Oilbrat said there would be billions of barrels there, we just need the first one up and running! How right he was with Navitas working the numbers on Sea Lion it will be getting close to 1 Billion recoverable once all the satellite exploration is included. That’s without looking at Isobel.

I think Navitas will most likely drill a few explorations while they are drilling the development wells, it would be rude not to!

LTT

Love your optimism Pages, but if there really was something in the wind about the deal you mention, wouldn't people be buying? Wouldn't they be filling their boots in the knowledge that this would be double, treble or more on an announcement? I would, I wouldn't be fishing around I'd be buying as many as I could up to 3.5 or 4.5, even 5p per share as any such deal where Borders partners Navitas and RKH and gets a slice of Sea Lion would be well worth it!

I think it's currently and chicken and egg situation, they haven't been able to get money for Darwin development so how can they get money to partner Navitas and RKH. Once Navitas hits the FID button and/or says where funding is coming from, then Darwin becomes more valuable, but no before.

Darwin is still a stranded asset until there are boots on the ground, just look at RKH, languishing around 13p per share with OM award sold although awaiting FIG approval, with a possible 80M euros to be banked by year end which is around RKH current market cap. So RKH 35% of Sea Lion and Navitas deal is valued at NOTHING. Sam Moody couldn't raise cash now even with a partner who is planning ahead and asking for tenders for accommodation in the Falklands and a site for equipment storage and mud for drilling. They want this ready for the 2nd and 3rd Q 2025. Even so with all the news about what they are doing, Navitas have said nothing much about a partner/funding/FIG apart from "FID is planned for end of 2024". So how could Darwin raise some cash?

Don't get me wrong I would love you to be right and things plough forward, but I just cannot see it at the moment.

Regards LTT a hopeful shareholder.

SpacesHoppa,

I also like this bit;

“a) Very soon an international supplier will be contracted by Navitas to supply liquid muds and fluids in volume for the soon development of the offshore drilling campaigns. The chosen contractor, in response to this requirement, will be in charge of preparing the area that he considers for his specialty. The supplier of liquid sludge and fluid volumes will be the supplier of its own mixing and storage tanks, and will develop its own network of pipes.

b)Navitas has an area assigned for this requirement. This is the area close to the entrance to the Temporary Port Mooring Access Facility. The person contracted for this requirement will develop the land space from its current state to a concrete platform capable of supporting all the corresponding tanks and offices. The area must be connected to local services, partially linked to the dock, fully fenced, have a storage shed and office space for about six people. A security checkpoint and availability to park vehicles.

c) Said area must be ready for delivery, fully in condition and prepared for the international supplier towards the second quarter of 2025.”

It seems like Navitas are just getting on with things below the radar, they are quietly sorting things without rubbing it In Argentina’s face. Makes a lot of sense really, why announce every move and risk Argentina spitting the dummy. Quietly, quietly catch the monkey seems to be the road Navitas are on.

LTT

Has anyone got any idea of when the April hearing is? I seem to recall due to illness the hearing was pushed back to April, but cannot recall a new date being mentioned!

Seems like everything is waiting until after the 5th of April !

LTT

I can't blame anyone for locking in some profit, even selling at 12.5p would give a 30%+ profit and for warrants that cannot be held in an ISA with the new CGT allowance cut to £6k this year and then to £3k next year it makes sense. A lot of people selling after April the 5th would be hammered for 20% tax on any profit over £3k.

I know at this moment in time, many are underwater with their holdings, but even so, if you believe in the company and that there is much more happening than there appears to be, it could be worth selling, even at a loss, (thus having a loss to claim against future CGT) and putting the lot in an ISA. You can stick in £20k before the 5th of April and another £20k from the 6th April.

However please note, this is not meant to be financial advice, as anyone who did the above, if Navitas walked away and RKH ceased to be, you would lose the lot and receive no allowance for the loss (hence the rules of an ISA, you keep all the capital gains, but you have to take any loss on the chin).

It just depends what you believe the future holds for RKH, for the record, I now have all my RKH shares in ISA's, if I have the funds I would be taking up this and next years allowance also, but it's probably for the best that I don't. LOL.

LTT

Sorry meant $14M in 2022 and $22M in 2023. Now where is that EIS and an update!

Happy Easter everyone. LTT

Thanks for the link pre2rcd, seems Navitas are spending, $14m in 2023, now $22m. so $36m in the past 2 years, would love to know what they have spent the cash on!

"The Partnership operates in a number of levels to promote the development of the project, including:

A. Formulating the financing plan for the project, which may include, among other things, financing by way of issuance of debentures, bank financing and oil traders financing.

B. Receipt of regulatory approvals for the revised development plan from the government of the Falkland Islands.

C. Identifying, negotiating and reaching agreements in connection with the ordering of significant long lead equipment, including the project’s floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) facility, and the supply and installation of underwater equipment.

D. Assessing the option of introducing another partner to the project, before or after the date on which the final investment decision (FID) is made."

LTT

One thing you understand clicking the link to FIG EIS pages, is they are epic documents 400+ pages long! No wonder it’s taking a bit of time, plus it’s not a EIS for drilling as the ones already there, it will be an EIS for drilling, connecting subsea equipment and an FPSO over a 15 year+ timeframe. Also I presume they will need to put in the FPSO they will be using to show oil many barrels per day they will pump, which in turn will indicate how many tankers are referring backwards and forwards into Falklands waters. It will all need to be in there.

It will be some interesting ready when it’s submitted that’s for sure.

LTT

Does anyone know how Shenandoah is progressing? There seems to be limited information available partly due to Beacon being a private entity.

I believe they were on with the 3rd or 4th well and they are planning production for the end of 2024. Is it still on track? Navitas’s income will go through the roof once Shenandoah comes on line, maybe that is what they are waiting for ! Our future is tied to Shenandoah.

LTT

Maybe FIG should pull their finger out and sign off on OM also! Can’t imagine what they are playing at! It would put RKH in a much better position financially for a start.

LTT

Hi BlooBird,

It was basically the recent conversation between the Directors of FIG, the conversation was dominated by talk of getting to oil readiness. Saying they would have to leave most projects on the back burner for the next 6 to 9 months to focus on oil readiness.

All positive. LTT

What we need is news of a partner and then the buying will start, can’t rely on our Canadian friend.

LTT