Member Info for longtermthinker

"All the projects Navitas want to build", cannot wait until Navitas put some meat on the bones!

Seems like everything is happening but nobody is saying anything directly, surely they cannot keep quiet about this much longer.

LTT

Pre2rcd, so if they release some news of progress on the Sunday, it's ok because its out of market hours?

Is my thinking correct on that one?

LTT

Pre2rcd,

I was thinking the same, sure I saw on the Navitas website that they did a report on the 23rd of March, but cannot see it now! It's strange because there is a ig gap in their reporting from December until May.

Maybe I'm mistaken but I was sure I saw 23rd of March as a date for a report.

Oh well, will just have to wait and see.

LTT

Godders you seem to put in such a lot of effort to down play a share you have a large holding in. Maybe you should put a few in your ISA. Then in 2028 when they announce FID as you imagine, you will be quids in!!!!

LTT

Looks to me like a bit of Bed and ISA is going on, the sell of 157k shares and then shortly after a buy of 152k works out at around £20k. The person lost around 4K shares in the transaction but it makes a lot of sense, particularly as from April the capital gains tax allowance is reducing so best to have these sheltered as when things start to kick off they could double in a blink of an eye. Plus when the FPSO if offloading its first oil, I think 13p will be a distant memory. Maybe we will need to add a zero to it if all the stars align!

However, I’m getting a little ahead of myself, let’s get OM signed off and the annulment thrown out first, then we have €80m in the bank, more than enough to pay our share of costs to first oil.

LTT

Or running out of cash. Sam did the fund raise and had an uptake of over 90% of the warrants, they have plenty of cash to last them over 18months maybe more.

There are no pre FID costs to be incurred as Navitas is loaning those to us. Once FIG sign off on the OM deal we get another €15m instantly. Then we have a possible €65 if the annulment result goes in our favour.

The only scenario where we would need to raise funds is if Navitas went for FID before the annulment result, then Navitas would need our contribution not covered by the Post-FIG loan which from memory could be anything from $35m to $65m.

However if FID was to occur so soon, I cannot see the share price being 13p. Don’t get me wrong if it was I would be jumping in with both feet and the kitchen sink if Sam had to raise funds for there share of cost for FID raising at 13p and gave warrants at 10p or something like!

But let’s be honest, if FID comes early that’s a bonus, if it comes Q4 or early 2025 we should have a share price that is higher and maybe we will have all the OM funds in the bank. So it’s a win, win. IMHO

LTT

No problem p777, as Godders freely admits he is irrational!

Hopefully good news is coming back end of March. Watch this space, that’s if you can read anything with all these Ads popping up of your smart phone!!!!!

I get it, the site needs to make money, but it’s getting a bit silly now, if you are reading a long post and Ad comes up and you lose your place.

LTT

Hi p777,

I think the main event will be the 23rd of March, they have published Financial Reports quarterly and the next one is due on or around the 23rd of March. With a bit of luck we could get some news as to partner if any; FPSO's being booked for refurb; funding news; EIA submission and the all important timescale for FID, if it's still earmarked for 2024 or if it's going to slip, along with, are they still looking at first oil 2026 or will that slip also into 2027!

No sure the new date for the OM hearing, I believe it was sometime in April, as for the annulment outcome, who knows, it could come a couple of months afterwards or take another 12 months to deliberate.

Also don't forget FIG signing off on the OM deal which could drop at anytime, once that's done we get 15m euros straight away with a possible 65m euros more once the annulment rules in our favour.

So there is plenty to look forward to in the coming months with a bit of luck.

LTT

I wouldn’t say that Godders, your money has lost what, 70-80% in value and you still hold!!!!!! If it’s foolish to invest here then it stands to reason it would be foolish to BE invested here. So are you and I both fools Godders?

LTT

Not sure I totally agree with that Oscar, I'm here for first oil but also the excitement of the drilling of Isobel and Elaine and the other prospects of which there will be many.

Once we get first oil and RKH are generating cash, Navitas will be paid back in a couple of years. Then what are RKH going to do? I'd like to think that the rig mobbed all the way to the Falklands when it's finished drilling the 5 to first oil, then another 6 or 7, will hang around and do a bit of exploration drilling. It could possibly be kept busy until the next batch of producers need drilling.

So if RKH is still around at that point, i'd like to see them drill baby drill.

LTT

Godders, you know full well this is out of RKH hands now, why don't you bother Navitas and ask them why they haven't announced anything? If RKH or PMO were still in charge I might be tempted to agree with you, I might be selling up or sticking the shares in the bottom drawer in the hope that one day they may benefit my daughter.

However, Navitas are beavering away behind the scenes, if you care to look. They have got a team working on FEED; they have a London office; they have been down to the Falklands numerous times; the have earmarked FPSO's; they have asked for bidders to put forward plans to provide accommodation from Spring 2025; they have worked up the numbers on SL and found they can produce more oil and get costs to first oil down; they have got FIG to hire a team to actually sign off on things and so on and so on. Why you cannot give them the benefit of doubt I cannot understand, you seem to moan for moaning sake.

You remind me of a guy in a 2003 film called Northfork. He and his family live in a house that is going to be underwater very soon due to the building of a Dam. The person what has to get them to move out tells them a story, he says, "Every time a friend or neighbour rows by you home as the water rises, they offer to take you ashore in their boat but you decline saying you are waiting for a sign from God. This goes on and on, until the water goes above your roof and you all drown and go to heaven. In heaven you come face to face with God and you ask why did you forsaken us Lord, and God replies, I sent your friends and neighbours in boats to get you, how much more of a sign did you need!"

The moral is despite your negativity and posting, " I have loads of shares, I want it so succeed, I want to be wrong, but there will be no FID till 2025", it will happen, all the stars are aligning, the ducks are lining up. So why don't you give it a rest till the end of 2024, then you can say you told us so. Because I cannot for the life of me understand what you are suggesting share holders should do! Are you wanting us to sell because you say no FID till 2025, or are you saying don't buy or we will become stuck like you? You bought at the highs and bought all the way down, you must have had faith in the company at one point.

Regards

LTT

I cannot imagine it's for Sea Lion as wouldn't Navitas be beating the jungle drums, talking up the prospects and the payback? Could be wrong of course, they might be doing a cheeky little bond issue to secure long lead items and the like, under the radar, but then why would they need to keep it quiet, it's about time they gave an update! On or around the 23rd of March seems a day for the diary maybe!

Regards LTT

Thank you DEM and Lactis, interesting reading indeed, I particularly like this bit ;

“More recently, three wells were drilled in the NFB, leading to further discoveries in the early post-rift, such as the Zebedee and Isobel Deep Fans in 2015. These discoveries not only extended the spatial and stratigraphic extent of the petroleum system, they highlighted the further potential for future significant discoveries in the North Falkland Basin.“

I think 20 years of drilling could be an understatement!

LTT

Pages, I cannot see Borders financing Darwin themselves and keeping 100% if afraid. I hold some Borders and live in hope that a rising tide lifts all boats, it may even, percentage wise be a better return than RKH in the short term. Let’s face it physiologically Borders tripling to 9p seems easy compared to RKH making it to 40p.

However unless Borders has something more going on, they will drift back down. A more likely scenario is Navitas and RKH and partner take out Borders for shares and cash. Give them some skin in the games as a RKH shareholder benefiting from SL in the relatively short term and once the cash is flowing in, get a rig down to Darwin and RKH lookalike prospects near by.

Don’t get me wrong, I would LOVE to be totally blindsided by a self funded development on Darwin where Borders keep 100% are a farmin partner comes and pays $200m to Borders for 50% and a free carry to first oil. But I’m afraid those days are long gone IMHO.

LTT

Thanks Mogger, again Navitas have tied their colours to the mast, they have listed what they have done, are currently doing and what they plan to do. If they were going to knock back the timeline to first oil, that is the place they would have done it, but no, they have presented it in their annual report. They have been beavering away in the background getting on with the job, NOT doing a PMO who talked the talk, but couldn't walk the walk.

Surely even Marvin (Godders/Deciced) can see that things are moving and Mr Market has been blindsided. Maybe they are waiting for some other sign!

LTT

I was thinking similar, it would be sensible keeping it all in the family so to speak. H&W supplying the new dock all but, so fabricating some subsea kit and sending it down with the bits and pieces for the dock and have people on the ground already makes a lot os sense, why have a different company there doing something else?

Its say's,

"is pleased to announce that it has signed a five-year Master Services Agreement for the fabrication of large structures with a global oil services company supplying subsea infrastructure across the major hydrocarbon basins the globe."

Suppose they couldn't say for a new basin as it would be a giveaway, maybe i'm adding 2+2 and getting 5, but it does seem there are lots of interesting bits and bobs of news flying around that are linking together, just nothing official for Navitas.

Regards

LTT

P.S. I also fondly remember the good old days of the iii BB, I used to come home from work, make a brew and catch up on the days events from the usual suspects like OilBrat, Sync (it's full of stars), JMPD (he regularly did something with Rosie and waxed lyrically about his rubber band), Stu I think it was who was more technically trading and left as soon as PMO came on board saying then is was a bad decision. Plus all the other regulars some of who are still posting here. Who was the chap who's wife he called mystic meg, she apparently drew a tear drop shape on a map of the north falklands basin with the narrow bit over Sea Lion and the wide part at the bottom over Isobel/Elaine, this was prior to Sea Lion being discovered, make of that what you will!

Fun days indeed and I hope we can capture that feeling again on this BB. I have a feeling is will happen and then we will head down to drill Isobel and we might just all be saying, "Oh my God, it's full of Stars!"

Hi Godder/Decided , if you check your trading account where you 4.5m shares apparently sit you might find you are £90k+ better off, so I wouldn’t poo poo a rise of 2p!

Plus the volume it pretty good considering how it’s been this past year. Each to their own I suppose. I can imagine as the FPSO offloads its first tanker of oil you will be saying, they won’t be able to sell it, it’s too waxy or it’s too far way, or something or other. You are definitely a glass half empty type that’s 100% certain.

Good luck where you stay in the share or take your £90K and go.

LTT

Thanks Xmtman and Norseman, most appreciated.

LTT

Just wondering if someone with industry knowledge can help, I read the following in an article about Hurricane Energy and the Aoka Mizu;

“The day rate and tariff for the vessel stands at $75,000 per day and 8% of revenue respectively.”

Is this the norm in the industry for FPSO’s, charge a day rate and take a cut? Or is this something Hurricane negotiated to secure the Mizu due the unknown nature of the production profile and contract length.

The reason I ask is, this might be good for Navitas/RKH to get the party started, book the FPSO on a cheaper day rate and give a percentage of revenue for 3 years, then upon contract renewal, rework the contract with the next FPSO that comes in.

It’s getting REALLY exciting now!

LTT

Morning BlooBird,

I was thinking the same, but then it’s the talk of FPSO’s, could it be possible that the Mizu with it topside kit such as compressor, water injection etc, all in place would head down to get the ball rolling. Minimal upgrade/refit so it could be good to go in short order.

Meanwhile the Munin which might need a good bit more work, goes into dock for a complete makeover as it will most likely spend the rest of its days in the Falklands. The Mizo gets the party started with the 5 wells pre-first oil, then 18months later as production it to be ramped up further, the Munin arrives and they are at 60-80k per day, of keep the Mizu and we are looking at 100-120k per day.

Lots of scenarios to think about, but hopefully we should get some meat on the bones soon.

Regards LTT