Member Info for longtermthinker

Near term I'd be happy to see 15p+ on the RNS that the lions share of the warrants have been taken up. FIG sign off on the OM deal and we see 20p+, then on news the FPSO has been booked and a partner is coming on board 35p+. FID in Sept 2024 with a rig booked and being mobbed down to the falklands to start drilling Jan 2025 (Summer down there) then 50p+ and maybe more. From then on we should either see a steady rise to first oil OR we get taken out on the cheap if the company's worth isn't reflected in the share price.

But saying all the above, I'd still prefer to go with Neilius's guess or Stillneedoil's! ;-)

Happy New Year Everyone, let's hope this is finally the year of the Rock.

LTT

MD, you shouldn’t wish ill on anyone. Yes there are differing opinions, but that’s the spice of life, but wishing a “very nasty 2024” on anyone is not a very nice thing to do. Just stick to RKH and keep your ear to the ground.

Wishing EVERYONE a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous 2024 whether your a glass half full or half empty kind of person.

LTT

Well a incoming tide lifts all boats, once Navitas get FID sorted and an FPSO, things will buck up here for sure, Darwin will no longer be an isolated asset, it will be game on.

Have a Merry Christmas and hopefully a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous 2024.

LTT

Hi SpaceHoppa,

thanks for the clarification, its a fabulous deal, far, far better that I had hoped and we get the lions share once the OM annulment is thrown out.

Also let's not forget, RKH requested ROI for payment of 247 million in September 2022. Since then a year and 4 months have passed and it's likely another year will pass before they can start going after the money, so that's 28months times 1.25m euros a month which is an extra 35m Euros and that is IF they pay up then. The interest is adding up all the time so we could get more than 22m for the 3rd tranche. Of course that will be loose change as Sea Lion will be pumping by then, but it will still be welcome.

Many thanks

LTT

Hi ChessMaster,

I am wondering how you deduce that Partner/ Funding/FPSO /FID will occur Q3/4 2024. Do you see some slippage in the schedule of first oil into 2027?

I am just working back from the stated first oil in 2026 which Navitas seem to me sticking to. The FPSO news will have to come pretty soon if they have one in mind for the refit which could take a couple of years. I get that FID could come 3/4Q 2024 but funding will have to be sorted and a partner also before then to enable FID, no FID without the money!

Then there is the rig and long lead items, they will have to be booked in. It's going to take roughly 1.5 years of drilling and then there will be MOB from who knows where, so working back from first oil in 2026 means they will have to hit the ground running in 2024. Things could come thick and fast!

2024 is going to me interesting to say the least.

Regards LTT

But Godder/Decide, a few posts ago you were saying you wanted the company to go bankrupt, make your mind up mate!

Anyway, I see this as great news, no dilution to first oil and we can fund our share of development not covered by loans from Navitas. Well done Sam and the board. This gets Harbour paid off and we get substantial cash further down the line, AND 20% in the 3rd tranche, which could be a nice amount with the interest adding up and ROI stalling on payment. What’s not to like.

The issue of waiting for years to receive anything and the worry of further dilution to fund going after the OM award has gone, and it’s a far better deal that I expected.

Merry Christmas everyone and here’s to a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous 2024.

LTT

Hi Space,

I also read it that they have spent $14m, $11m and more recently $23m+.

To me they are ramping up the spend which all bodes well for FID in 2024. So they will have to secure finance pretty sharply prior to FID if they are serious about getting this show on the road. Personally I cannot think of anything Navitas have done that would imply they are lifting their foot off the gas. They have done more in the past 18months than PMO did over the past 10 years!

2024 might just be the year of the Rock!

LTT

Damned if they do, damned if they don’t. As far as anyone knows they might be attending by zoom, but nobody knowns.

Hopefully someone will update us with any details as and when they have time. So let’s just sit back and relax and just try and get into the spirit of the festive holidays. Next news on the calendar is in Jan saying all the warrants have been excercised and the OM final hearing has taken place. Anything else will be a bonus.

Warmest, festive regards to one and all.

LTT

I am sure Mogger won't mind me sharing this from one of his previous posts, it clearly shows how the FIG Mineral Departments budget has increased dramatically. Therefore I'd conclude they didn't magic the money out of thin air, they must have received the first payment of the and will receive the second payment next month.

Thinks are getting quite exciting.

Regards LTT

"The operating budget for the Mineral Department of the FIG has jumped YOY.

2022 - £307,316

2023 - £863,620"

https://www.legislation.gov.fk/view/html/inforce/2023-07-16/fiord-2023-3#sch.1

This is and extract from one of Moggers posts dated 16th November 2022,

"The structure and capacity of the current Minerals team is considered to be inadequate to ensure the successful delivery of the tasks required in order for FIG to be ready for the timely commencement of the Sea Lion project. Currently the establishment is 5.1 Full Time Equivalents (FTE) of which some is a Fixed Term Contract (FTC).

3.2 A new structure to support the project has been developed, and requirements identified with job descriptions written and graded. This change will effectively increase the department by 2 FTE.

3.3 The additional costs to secure and appropriately resource a team are to be met by the revenues received by FIG from Navitas REDACTED On the basis of the budgetary implications presented in section 2 this should result in circa 3 years of funding.

4.1 Under the Islands Plan 2022 – 2026 there is a commitment to “progress extractive industries in an environmentally conscious way”. More specifically within the delivery plan there are a number of clear objectives:

4.1.1 Put in place legislative priorities for Sea Lion project Offshore Minerals Ordinance

4.1.2 Undertake project management for Sea Lion project

4.1.3 Complete resourcing and recruitment for Sea Lion project

4.2 Over the past 15 years the size of the Minerals department has expanded and contracted according to the level of activity by industry. The current Minerals department has a small team of six established posts and one fixed term contract post. As of the end of September 2022 only the fixed term and the cleaner posts were filled.

4.3 The recruitment process for the new Director of Mineral Resources has been completed and a sucessful applicant is currently progressing through the on-boarding process.

4.4 During the farm-in negotiations between Navitas and FIG, and agreement was reached to secure a fee of $1,800,000 REDACTED. This will be paid to FIG in two instalments on 1 January 2023 and 1 January 2024. This revenue is expected to be used in part to fund the costs associated with ensuring that FIG is at the appropriate level of oil readiness for the Sea Lion project to commence.

Mogger"

Thank you Mogger.

LTT

Hi Buffit,

I seem to recall a link that Mogger posted that stated Navitas had put up some cash to support the hiring of FIG team to get them in a position to actually do the work, not point for example Navitas preparing an environmental report on migration patterns of marine life, submitting it, them FIG find out they don't have anyone to check it.

I will have look back through Moggers posts and see if I can find it.

LTT

Cheers Mogger, great to see things moving in the right directions.

With hindsight it makes it woefully clear now how PMO where just going through the motions until possibly the back end of 2019. They talked the talk but never did the one thing that we can see clearly now was so fundamentally important. Get the FIG to beef up its staffing levels to actually be about to plan, approve and sign off on things. FIG are being dragged into the 21st century and getting everything in place to be one of the richest nations per head on the planet.

Navitas knows it can deliver the plan, the production, the oil, the issue has always been were FIG ready for it? Well know it appears that they are.

Pity there seems to be no blockbuster news this side of Christmas, I had secretly hoped that the deadline for the warrants was put in to allow some news to boost the share price so everyone would take up their warrants, but then it appears the warrants will be taken up either way.

Roll on 2024.

LTT

Welcome to the Flock Latics, after all you took up your warrants to support the company you want to fail, you post on here incessantly to warn share holders of the ills of investing in this share, but I cannot for the life of me comprehend why.

Let’s face it, anyone buying into RKH now might just hit the jackpot in the next 12months with news of rig/FPSO getting booked; partner coming on board; financing getting sorted; FID; OM ruling in our favor. Yes I get it that none of the above might never happen and a year from now we could be looking at further dilution, but isn’t that part of the risk reward? If everything was priced accurately, there would be no rising or falling of shares.

I have bought some dog shares in my day, got caught up in the hype of Jam tomorrow, but I’m big enough to admit my mistake and when I’ve been burned badly, and have had no confidence in the board I have sold, I’ve taken the hit on the chin and walked away. Lived to fight another day. I don’t buy this bull that you can’t sell because it all might turn around tomorrow or I’m in too deep. You can always sell and move on, take the hit and never look back. It would do your mental health the world of good.

LTT

You’re not wrong Oscar, a couple of days ago Navitas hit a 52 week high. Once Shendoah comes online they really will be a cash cow. They just need the last two wells to get drilled without issues or delays.

I wonder if Beacon Offshore would come onboard and take a stake in Sea Lion. They obviously have a good working relationship with Navitas and they have a good backer with Blackstone Group. Blackstone might even take a stake through one of its group companies as it has done with Shenandoah.

Just a thought, sometimes it’s better the devil you know!

On the matter of anyone taking up there warrants early or late, the company is hardly running out of cash, so what does it matter when the warrants are excercised as long as they are. Why not earn 4+ percent on your cash up until the wire if you plan on keeping the warrants longer term, they are not going anywhere until the last date for applying for them, which if your with Barclays is the 27th December.

LTT

Hi Oscar, so what your sayings is if they stick to a timeline of FID in 2024, then we can expect , long lead time items acquisition; drilling contract signed off; FPSO signed of; maybe a partner coming onboard and then debt and equity raise all prior to FID.

So things could start happening thick and fast in 2024. Along with the OM final hearing all I can say is roll on 2024, it might just finally be the year of the rock!

Fingers crossed.

LTT

It will be interesting to see home many warrants have been issued this month, no doubt there will be an RNS on the 30th Nov or 1st December. I’m hoping for in the region of 2m- 5m with the remainder taken up in December with an RNS early Jan 2024.

I wonder what will happen to any leftover warrants, will they just be voided or can some institution hover them up once they have expired?

LTT

Unfortunately RKH cannot encourage or promote the take up of warrants to share holders, their lawyers told them it is a big no, no! Apparently it is financial advice and that is not allowed. Even so, anyone who took up the warrants offer would be crazy not to cash them in , as even now it’s almost a 20% return just buying and selling them, a win, win.

Anyway, many thanks again Mogger and Headder for the link and translation, it’s a positive to have Navitas fine tuning the development AND saying their timeline is still on track. I’d like to think the new hires in the FIG will be on with approvals, which is why they were no doubt hired, to not hold things up. Also imagine the longest lead item will be the FPSO, so once that is confirmed, things should start to fall into place.

If they are still planning oil by the end of 2026 with 18months of drilling before, a rig will have to be mobilized by 1st Q 2025 to hit that schedule. Exciting times are ahead.

Good luck all

LTT

Oscar,

Are you implying that FID would not happen till the end of 2024 and therefore first oil will be end of 2028? That would be a 2 year delay to Gideon’s original plans .

I wonder if they will try and get a mid cap player in as the 3rd party, give them 30 precent, but only if they have cash to fund things until Shenandoah comes online, then Navitas will have plenty of cash to fund theirs and RKH’s share.

Regards LTT

Here, here, and apparently it commands a premium to Brent, so even as we head down to $80 per barrel, there is still plenty of profit in Sea Lion’s oil for everyone.

LTT

Godders, RKH are not in the driving seat, they have not set a deadline, Navitas have. Why don’t you troll the Navitas forums if there are any and air your grievances there?

Also why do you always talk like you want them to fail? Is seems very strange to me that you would invest in a share you continuously knock down. Saying it’s a “Win, Win” if they fail or get to first oil doesn’t make sense at all!

Suppose it takes all sorts. The positives for me are that Ian Ramsey has hired a good team around him; they have just visited the Falklands; the FIG are hiring again and we are almost 2 months away from the OM final hearing AND you have taken up your warrants, you have helped the board that you have little or no faith in, to continue on for another year before needing to cash in the OM award/get paid out/fund raise.

So on behalf of the board and myself, thank you for your support of the company you continuously berate.

LTT