Member Info for longtermthinker

Hi Jock,

thanks for the heads up, most appreciated. I wonder what they are visiting for? They did the big presentation earlier this year to get the Falklands people on board with Gideon doing his thing and talking up the project. But why would they head down there again so soon?

Very interesting indeed.

LTT

Always good to have someone to point the finger at, make the enemy and to rile people up, makes them blind to the fact that their issues are closer to home!

Bit like a small number of posters on here who point the finger at the board rather than take on any of the responsibility for their own actions.

Still, it will all be a thing of the past soon hopefully.

LTT

Hi Flipper56,

Suppose that is why Navitas is looking to get producing in 2026, get in on the upward trend in oil prices, get a footprint in the Falklands then build on that.

Of course I hope oil doesn’t spike up so high at it will be another boom and bust scenario, a $80 to $100 range would be better for everyone.

Looking forward to the new board members arrival week after next, would be as good a time as any to give an update on what they are doing on the OM front particularly as Simon Thomson has experience on arbitrations.

Now all we need is some big news from Navitas to bump up the share price before December and the rest of the warrants will fly off the shelves, then onwards and upwards into 2024 with FID and OM annulment result!

What do we think the next news from Navitas will be, partner coming on board? RIG/FPSO letter of intent? Funding secured? Of do we think Navitas will keep quiet for now and then have a blowout of news rather than drip feed?

LTT

Sorry meant the OM 250m+ Euros, it should be ratcheting up nicely now, possibly more than 1.5m Euros per month, it has to add value to any part we sell off to a 3rd party, more so once the annulment goes in our favour.

LTT

Well, I'd like to think we will hear something in October, as the new board members will arrive from the 1st October so imagine there will be a board meeting to welcome them shortly after and then a plan of attack with regards to going after the annulment money.

LTT

Page,

how can you say the "Farmout advanced", the last word from the company was in June where they said,

"The positive conclusions from this work are currently being shared with potential industry collaborators. This includes some of the companies that have previously engaged with us, along with those who are considering the project for the first time. This phase of farm-out activity will continue over the coming months."

We are getting to 4 months and not a sniff of a partner coming onboard, so either they are running a tight ship or they are wanting to keep too much of Darwin that no fish are biting. Better to have a deal with a smaller percentage than try to keep a hefty slice and get no takers. Don't get me wrong, I want this to happen, but without a farm-in this is going nowhere fast.

Hopefully there will be a update soon with some firm news, even the hint of someone coming onboard and this will fly, otherwise we will have to wait for Navitas and RKH news and catch on to their coat tails.

LTT

Hopefully that will be the peak for oil prices and it will bounce around in the $80 to $90 range going forward. Too high and we get demand destitution and too low we get projects get kicked down the road!

$80 to $85 would be the sweet spot to make Sea Lion and ongoing development (once the torch paper it lit) happen. Plus once there is a footprint in the Falklands the cost saving should kick in that should bring the lift costs down even further.

All we need now if for Gideon to get out his matches and get this party started.

LTT

Morning Mike, yes you are right, but in inflation runs at 10% for the next 10 years we are all in trouble, I won’t be worrying about whether RKH gets their cash or not! LOL

LTT

Hi donalb,

Thanks for pointing that out, so the Euro interest rate is an average for the year! Still even 7% isn’t too shabby I think I read somewhere that an interest rate of 7% would double your money every 10 years. So 10 years from now if interest rates stay at this level ROI will owe us €500m + Euros!!!!!!

Of course hoping we can get some cash long before then, or cash in part of the award. Still you can see the incentive to take on that debt for someone playing the long game. What would it cost in lawyers once the arbitration goes in our favor to take ROI through the courts in New York, UK etc? €3/€4m ? Pretty sure RKH and their lawyers will have their eye on some assets to make ROI squirm.

Anyway, back to the main event, when will Navitas announce the next steps, or more to the point, when will they no longer be able to keep a lid on what is happening behind the scenes.

Regards LTT

In case anyone missed it, the ECB just put up interest rates to 4% so we are now earning 8% interest on the money ROI owe us. With these rates set to be higher for longer, the cash is really racking up now.

With the above in mind, it must make the saleable value to a third party higher, also should the Tribunal rule in our favour, which I'd like to think is pretty much odds on with ROI not communicating with RKH or their lawyers, the saleable value will be higher still. Credit where credit is due, well done Sam and the board for sticking with it.

LTT

Well, if Navitas can keep to the self imposed timeline, there should be a good few of us still around to reap the rewards.

Interestingly I was ready about Cambo, a 170m barrel field discovered in 2002. On the doorstep and yet still up in the air! Sort of makes Navitas, Sealion and RKH look like they are galloping along!

LTT

Morning Decidedleaverage,

I’m am just wondering what you recommendation is with this share as you are so vocal to the negative? Could you please advise what one should do in the following scenarios.

So as a new investors looking at RKH for the first time, should I just walk on by?

As a long term holder like yourself should I hold because I’m too scared to sell if RKH comes good?

As a holder of warrants that I can make 25-30% on by buying and then selling straight to market. Should I take up the free money or not give RKH the cash just to spite them?

As a holder who bought in at 8p and 10p, so basically already up, should I get rid as the shares because they are just going nowhere, as you say and invest elsewhere?

So what would you advise? I know what you would do, hold on because you can’t face the loss and too scared to sell. But I would be very interested to know?

Regards LTT

Sorry excuse my fat finger typing, meant

“ a LOI would show they have intent but it WON’T affect……..”

and

“ but WATCH the 2022 presentation when the head of Beacon does his talk…..”

Sorry about that.

LTT

Morning Chess,

I have to agree, a LOI would show they have intent but it would affect the share price materially as we have been there before. However a partner would be a game changer IMHO. If a mid cap came in to the tune of taking a 30-35% stake, who has operating experience and more importantly a war chest of cash, say $400m, it would be game on.

All the stuff Navitas mentioned about, vendor, bank and oil trader financing would all fall into place. I think that is why a 3rd party has been mentioned Prior to FID, I think the money people have said, yes we will put up the cash, but only if you have another player with with experience who will put a hefty amount of skin in the game.

Look at Beacon Offshore, ok they have a good backer in Blackstone Energy, but they have done the heavy lifting on Shenandoah, Navitas just sorted the cash. I know I’ve said this before, but what the 2022 presentation when the head of Beacon does his talk, he is really amazed talking about Navitas securing ALL the funding prior to FID, says it’s the first time that’s ever happened in his 30+ years in the industry.

So to my mind, next news will be possibly the FPSO, but the next BIG news will be the 3rd partner, then once that has sunk in, 12p should be a distant memory.

Plus all the warrants will be taken up if that happening this side of Christmas , which I believe there is a concerted effort by some on here to get investors not to take them up! I am unsure why, as even buying them today and selling them to market you’d make 30%. Why would anyone not do that, money for nothing!

Regards LTT

LaticsRule,

Maybe you caught him on a bad day, we all have them. I have corresponded with Sam via email and face to face at many AGM’s, never found him evasive, guarded yes, but he has always been open and plainly said what he can and cannot discuss.

I think it’s not far to continually bad mouth someone when you don’t make any effort to communicate with them. IMHO

Same goes for Godders, just pick up the phone, write and email, it’s not that difficult.

LTT

“An Alaskan $8-billion oil project, led by ConocoPhillip, to deliver 160,000 bpd of crude, with reserves estimated at between 400 and 750 million barrels. The lifetime of the project is estimated at up to 30 years”

You can understand why Navitas and RKH are quietly sorting things out behind the scenes. There would be greens all over this if Navitas started giving updates of their intentions, because let’s face it, once Sea-lion is up and running there is enough oil to keep drilling and pumping for the next 30+ years and then some.

In the current climate it’s hardly something to shout from the rooftops. No it would be better to just keep working and lining up the ducks, then have a blowout announcement saying it’s on, funding, FPSO, FID and project sanction all in one go. Then Argentina won’t have time to protest about it. IMHO. (With a tad of wishful thinking).

LTT

Sorry for the error in my last post, I posted it before re-reading through. I think you get the point.

Regard

LTT

I just cannot see UKGov backing the Falklands, it would be political suicide in the current climate. Why would they rock the boat, they are already being chastised for not going far enough with pulling licenses, can you imagine the fallout if they were to clearly support a green field development that could produce for 25+ years!!!!!

Of course they could pull out the “support the Falklands against the dreaded Argies card”, there is nothing live making an enemy to get the country behind, but just can’t see that happening.

The recent Navitas presentation is showing the way, third party with cash pre-FID, vendor finance they the banks and the traders will follow IMHO. If it turns out the be Murphy, then in an indirect way we have the US keeping an eye on things, that would be a BIG positive.

LTT

Makes you wonder why PMO didn’t think of doing that in the first place!

Still, it’s all water under the bridge now, we need to look to the future and the future is brighter than it has ever been.

Does anyone know if a letter of intent sent by Navitas to an FPSO company would have to be announced? I am pretty sure if RKH sent it it would need to be RNS’ed but not so sure with Navitas, plus as they are holding the purse strings, would they even need to inform RKH!

Hope we all had a good bank holiday. Regards LTT

Citizen, Chess,

I believe PMO and RKH were trying to secure vendor financing previously to get this over the line. With banks and investment funds shying away from oil and gas it seems all the more important than vendors put some skin in the game, as if not, no project will get off the ground!

Incidentally I read today that even France is reversing on its coal use as part of its “Energy Security” remit.

LTT