Member Info for longtermthinker

Buffit, I think more possibly it will be from week commencing 5th June when we should be looking for an update as they said 30 days from 25th April plus 10 days for ROI to reply to what RKH have proposed. That is of course if RKH and lawyers wait until the 30th day to submit their proposal, if however they get back to them on the 25th day with a "We cannot agree with ROI" then ROI have just 10 days to say why or the Stay will be lifted and RKH lawyers can start earmarking assets to seize, although I imagine they will have a list all prepared to make things as awkward as possible for Italy. IMHO

My thoughts are we should hear the outcome pretty quickly once the 30 days +10 days are up. But with RKH you can never be sure. If nothing else we should get a good update at the AGM.

LTT

Current market cap is about £80m, so we are looking at roughly 28p per share should they rule in our favor in Q1 2024, plus the assets will either be in escrow or RKH’s lawyers will be free to go after assets from next month.

So with the above in mind, how much gets added on for Navitas galloping towards FID? 5p? 10p? 20p?

Interesting times ahead me thinks.

LTT

Hi Thenorseman,
I thought what about the BlueWater's FPSO Glas Dowr? It's double hulled suitable for NS, so that ticks the box on being suitable for the Falklands, and can do 60k bpd. I thought this because they were initially talking about a much reduced project, but seems Navitas are back on track talking about 80k to 100k per day which your choice seems to capable of doing.

To be honest I’m glad the project is looking at a bigger FPSO, I was concerned a smaller one would limit the development of Sea Lion and the surrounding prospects. Now it seems full speed ahead.

LTT

MD I think if they are planning first oil in 2026 they will have to start drilling late 2024 or early 2025 at the latest. Fingers crossed they are cracking on behind the scenes sourcing a suitable rig.

It would be great if they popped a hole into Isobel, Argos acreage and even Borders acreage while down there, it will all depend on the rig spec and if it has some down time between development drilling. Fingers crossed for everyone.

LTT

MD how can you say it’s nonsense to sell or buy, you don’t know people circumstances. You bought and bought Argos, kept telling everyone they would go up more than RKH, where did that get you and those who listened to you?

Don’t get me wrong you have been on the money this time with you news about RKH however you should not be calling anyone naive for making a decision based on their personal circumstances.

LTT

how this share is still sat at sub 20p.

We have just got a presentation from Navitas saying, "Sea Lion Project-The next big thing", "First oil by 2026", etc, they even have a pie chart that has Sea Lion taking up almost 3/4 of it! They have Ian Ramsey and his team on the case and have got FIG hiring staff to take care of the paperwork as and when it comes along to get Sea Lion up an running. The big man himself went to the Falkands, how can they not go for FID early 2024?

They have well and truly nailed their colours to the mast! Anyone thinking this is not going to happen baring some black swan event is possibly going to miss out on a great turn around of the company. IMHO

I am no saying buy, I'm saying sell into the rise, although many will, just to get out and be done with Rockhopper once and for all. I'm just thinking out loud as to why we are still at around 13p with OM and a proactive partner.

Hopefully onwards and upwards.

LTT

You might be lucky Happy if you wait for the fall back, but this has 20p+ pretty much nailed on now if you look back to where we were in 2019/start of 2020 when things looked a lot brighter for PMO prior to Covid.

However we have increased volumes; lower costs per barrel; a committed partner talking FID 2024 and first oil in 2026 AND an OM award due to drop early 2024!

Still seems a steal even at current levels. IMHO

LTT

Would prefer an FID Dec 2023 but then that’s just me being selfish and thinking about my warrants. LOL

Still it’s fabulous news, Navitas are cracking on with things that’s for sure, it makes sense getting this update out particularly if they are going to be rattling the tin and passing around the hat in the 2nd half of this year, which they will have to do if they want to keep to the announced schedule.

All good in my books though. We are counting down the days till OM update as to what ROI plan to do, the money coming in in 1stQ 2024 will be perfect timing.

LTT

Nice one DEM,

Hopefully that painting is a representation of around the time of first oil, when the OM award has covered our Pre and Post FID costs and the first tanker is on its way for sale at $85+ per barrel!

And the big chap on the right in red with the curly hat is Sam, laughing out loud celebrating the take-over offer for the company having just drilling on Isobel and they have found she’s bigger than Sealion!

One can but dream.
LTT

Hi Happy,

I am of the same feeling, cannot believe we are still around the 11p mark particulalry after the last update on OM which says we have possibly 30/40 days to find out if ROI will stump up the cash into escrow or RKH lawyers can start proceeding to take assets! (that's how I read it anyway). If by some miracle ROI do put the cash in escrow then surely they would have to add some value to the shareprice as it would almost be nailed on that we would get 50% of it, and there would be no wait or chasing to get the money!

And even if we were valued at 50% of the OM award , it would mean all the work done by PMO, Navitas, the licences, EVERYTHING is valued at nothing!!!!

It's a crazy world.

LTT

Have to agree Much, even if the annulment reduces the award for some strange reason by 30%, then I would presume the costs would be split 70% paid by ROI and 30% paid by RKH.

Either way, I feel RKH will have something in place to cover the costs such as giving up a percentage of the award. As was said earlier, 1.2m Euros a month covers more than enough representation fees and then some. IMHO

LTT

I don't think the ROI should be allowed to get away with paying anything but the full amount of whatever the ICSID say we should be paid at the end of all this. it's not like we are desperate for the money, plus if they string this out to Q1 of 2023 that's an extra £12m+ in our pockets.

No, I think the ICSID have made a good call, ROI have 30days to put up the cash in a neutral account or RKH and it's lawyers can go for it with the Stay lifted. The ball is now firmly in the ROI court, if they comply they have the option of possibly getting the award partly annulled and thus getting some of their money back, however the plus side for RKH being that when the the decision is made we get all or part of the award straight away. A win, win.

Still not sure how they account for the interest as the award is 190m plus interest and although the can get a rough idea to Jan 2023, if the annulment decision is made at the end of Q1 that's a different of roughly 4.5m Euros in interest! I mean that would cover the Hobnob bills though to first oil and then some!
;-)

Still can't believe we are still at 11.5p with such excellent news. This has to be a buy at this price to double in a month!

LTT

Sorry meant “Doesn’t effect the outcome” Fat fingers and iPhone typing don’t mix well!

Morning all,

I also would like to think they would lift the Stay as it’s going on 6 years since the start of proceeding, waiting so long , getting a unanimous decision, then have the ROI request and an annulment AND THEN Have the Stay extended would be a bit of a kick in the teeth!

Of course it does effect the outcome and it’s only 8 months or so to final decision, but it could set a precedent that needs nipping in the bud IMHO

LTT

Just wondering was the 30 Days mentioned in documents by ICSID? I know in the last update from RKH, Sam said the result of the Stay would be in the next few weeks, but wasn’t sure were I read the 30 days.

Presume RKH lawyers would be requesting whether the Stay has been granted or lifted but maybe don’t want to be seen to be chasing, however it’s important for RKH to know. Either way we have just 9 months until the judgement is made, hopefully some news from Navitas before then to shift the share price northward otherwise the warrants may be a bit of a damp squid, had hoped to make 50-100% on the warrants!

LTT

Hi Happy,

Have to agree with the topping up, have just done the same, if anyone made a big for RKH they would have to offer a princely sum, 25-30p for the possible OM award for a start, then what value for Sealion? Think if anyone makes a bid it would come after FID/Project Sanction.

Of course this would mean paying a premium with the OM award hopefully awarded in full at such time, but then it’s like betting on a sure thing, the reason we are currently hovering around 10p is because of the risks, the bigger players like a sure thing.

LTT

If the 30days is up I wonder if the decision has been decided and if it will be given shortly . Not sure how it works really. I am aware in the past we have had considerable waits after meetings have been concluded however they seemed to have sped things up since then. So with that in mind, could be here something today or Monday.

It’s not like we are chasing them to speed up the making of a decision, the outcome of “To Stay or Not To Stay” would have been made by now, so how long does it take to inform the lawyers of both parties? I would have thought at the very least RKH lawyers would be all over this and would want to know, presume ROI would need to know pretty quickly too!

Any national holidays we should be aware of that may have knocked this back a little?

LTT

Are we expecting the results of the Stay or Not to Stay tomorrow/early next week? I think DEM and another couple of posters got the 30days as finishing today or tomorrow, so could the price rise over 11p have anything to do with it?

Worst case scenario is they extend the Stay and we hover around 10p for the next 8 months or so unless Navitas announce anything. But should they cancel the Stay? Or even tell ROI to put the funds in escrow pending the outcome in 2024, what then?

Interesting times ahead me thinks.

LTT

CitizenTS,

That makes a lot of sense. RKH have been waiting 6+years now for a payout and got a unanimous decision, how could they allow ROI to kick the can down the road again without some caveats. If one of the judges had gone against I could imagine the Stay being upheld but as all 3 agreed in our favor, it should be an open and shut case, they must realise what the ROI are trying to do.

So if they leave the Stay in place, the least they can do is say all the funds have to be deposited in escrow until Jan 2024, that means that when the decision is made, we get all or part ( incase they reduce the amount) straight away. If however ROI don’t set the funds for payment aside then the Stay in cancelled and RKH can go for the money. That would be the fairest outcome all round IMHO.

LTT

Hiya Ovets, SpaceHoppa, yep I freely admit I felt a right numpty after I posted it. Just shows how long ago I logged into my Linkedin account, it was labeled as an "Upcoming Event" LOL, hope I didn't get anyone too excited!

Something has to give soon anyway, should hear about the OM Stay this week or next with a bit of luck. Then over the Summer we should get some idea of how things are progressing with Navitas, if not least on the rig front. 65days + per well, 11 prior to first oil, plus rig mob time which if from the NS could be 2/3 months and we are looking at a possible 2.5years rig contract. That's something you don't book in with a month of twos notice!

Suppose it all depends on whether they want to get the funds in the bank before starting to source equipment or they start getting the ducks lined up as they go along. Hopefully the later.

LTT