Member Info for longtermthinker

And it will be interesting as to what ground Italy will ask for annulment. Of course it will be a closed shop and we will only hear about it until the end, but with all 3 judges agreeing on the award there are limited avenues they can go down, so if they try the jurisdiction card again there may be a pretty swift end to proceedings as they have played that card twice previously and lost! Either way we be earning €1m, maybe more approx per month from 23rd December, it’s the best income we have had in years!!!!!

LTT

Cheers, seems I jumped the gun a little with my glass half full outlook! Plus the wording of the RNS which implied about the annulment being rejected, however it seems you still have to go through the process to look at the case even to have it rejected. Seems crazy really that they can request an annulment to kick the can down the road, even if the case has no merit. I'd have thought that someone would look through the application and see if there is any merit there to precede, but apparently not.
Judge, "What is your grounds for annulment?"
Italy, "Well we want it!"
Judge, "Yes, But what is your reasoning?"
Italy, " The reasoning is, because we can!"

LTT

Wonder what will happen to the share price if/when the annulment request is thrown out? Will the ICSID wait until the very last moment, until the 23rd December to throw out the case? (I think that's when the 120 days are up).

Currently I feel the 18-24months of further waiting is priced in, but if we don't have to wait, if it's thrown out, then from the 23rd of December it's game on. Ok they will wiggle and squirm, bleat and moan, play the big bad oil company fleecing the poor Italian tax payer, without mentioning it wouldn't have come to this if they had compensated RKH for renaging on the licence way back when! But ultimately they will have to pay.

What do we see, 50% or 100% rise from these current lows? AND lets not forget, this is without any move forward with SL, but as we are well aware there are lots of things happening behind the curtain, it's just a matter of time to when Navitas starts talking up their plans, and they no doubt will, you can't raise cash and get investment without promoting the asset and an investment plan.

Fingers crossed.

LTT

Hi Much, totally agree, Linda letter to UKGov went unheeded, the tax burden on NS producers it crazy, it’s bag enough in the good times but as recession hits and demand destruction takes its toll, are they going to cut the tax levy, you bet they won’t. The NS is becoming in-investable, what a time for Ithaca to IPO with a mandate to invest in the NS! At least Harbour and Linda have mentioned looking at other areas to diversify into (even though they dropped the ball with Sealion!) but now I should think they will pick up the pace, any money they plow into the NS not produce the returns now.

Maybe this state of affairs could get them approaching Navitas to take a stake, it would be an epic backtrack, but if they swallow their pride and egos and do it for their shareholders, it would be a win, win for everyone!

LTT

With a market cap of 66m why would anyone pay Eco 50m and a couple of well carry’s when you could buy the whole company for 100m and get 3B/4B prospects AND Guyana AND Nambia acreage for free! Surely we are now getting into take out territory or am I missing something?

LTT

Surely somebody an Eco should inform shareholders where we are at! We had news from Keith that there was a delay, but was that a one off or could the issue arise again? Are we at TD, are we doing the sidetrack, are we currently in the sidetrack?

We could do with something from the company, even if it’s a “ We are currently behind schedule due to drilling issues, these have now been overcome and we are back on track. We look forward to updating shareholders in the coming week.” Or am I asking too much?

LTT

Well it looks like the Layla has taken over from the UMKHUSELI and she is heading home. Interesting times are ahead that is for sure, are far as Keith is concerned nothing to see here until next week at the earliest.

LTT

Gosh, but a 20day delay on a 25day drill is pretty bad with no word from Eco, how have they got away with that. If this turns out to be a duster, there will be a great deal of explaining to do, that's for sure. I wouldn't want to be Gil at the Breakfast meeting announcing a cash call to pay for drilling overruns, I think he may end up wearing the breakfast!
;-)

But on a more serious note how can they be 20days behind without a word? Surely they have hit something to warrant their perseverance otherwise they have been throwing cash down a dry hole, so maybe as some have suggested the 20days include down time for weather, drill issues, but also the commencement of the sidetrack, it would make more sense than they have been messing about for 20days!

But who knows, the Layla is on its way, maybe carrying cement for P&A? there seems to have been a bit of traffic around the rig today, but either way we will have to just wait and see. Even if they are planning to P&A in the next few days, I'd imagine a week before it's completed and we get some news. Any oilers out there, is that about right?

LTT

Thanks Soder, I was just wondering, I recalled Rockhopper doing cores on Sealion but think this was during appraisal drilling, and now I read the through again Eco say this is purely an exploration well.

Incidentally the Layla heading back to the rig has a draft of 5.6m does that mean she is loaded again? If so, don’t think she will be carrying just the groceries!

LTT

Have they budgeted or were there any plans to take cores on this well? In fact is it something that can be shoehorned in if they found a need, could they even get the kit shipped out to do it?

Maybe I’m clutching at straws but if they drilled down and not only discovered oil but were suitably impressed with the wirelines, would it not be prudent to take some cores while there to understand the pay as it would be no doubt helpful for working up a development plan going forward.

Probably way off the mark, you probably have to plan a good bit in advance if you are going to take cores. It was just a thought.

LTT

I was tentatively thinking the same, in a perfect world they are waiting to do a big blowout announcement once the well and sidetrack is done and dusted.

Either way it must be getting close, we are 6 weeks tomorrow since start of operations, that’s 42 days of a 20-25day drill, even taking into account a Spud date that was intimated at the 9th Oct, we are still 36-37 days give or take of drilling. So either they have found something or are having a disastrous drill!

LTT

Feelinlucky, your guess is as good as anyones. I can't see them hanging around on the samples though, they will have made the call (hopefully) some time ago to drill the sidetrack if they had a discovery in the main well, I cannot see them drilling the sidetrack if there was nothing positive in the main well. But who knows, they said the following back on the 4th October;

"we look forward to updating the market, our partners and all stakeholders in the coming weeks on our progress and the Gazania-1 exploration well results."

They have given no progress update, so that can be seen as a positive and a negative. Positive in the sense that they have drilled the main target, had a result of sorts and have cracked on with the sidetrack and will update when they have finished operations OR Negative in the sense that they have lost time with problems down hole and are struggling to get back on track!

My concerns are, if they had got a discovery why hasn't Gil put it out there? I have heard that he is a guy who will sing from the rooftops about a thimble full of oil so why hold back if it's positive! If they are having drilling issues then why haven't they informed the market as the costs will be adding up the longer this goes on and we are not rolling in cash.

LTT

Well thanks for your magnanimous input Jimmy, really thoughtful of you to take the time to sign up to LSE to inform us you have sold your holding. So are you expecting us to all follow suit and join you? Maybe you are wanting us to entice you back with lots of positive words or maybe you just wanted to share that you have sold, well just because you want to.

Either way, good luck with your future endeavours, may I ask where you are going to put you cash from the sale, might be a top tip!

Anyway I think most on here will be holding for results or derisking or have done a bit of both. Guyana is hotting up big style so even if the results here are not the best, we have that to fall back on, along with our Nambia acreage.

Good luck

LTT

I get what you are saying, however with drilling it’s different, if they had a discovery/duster early on, even though it’s a price sensitive event, they are not obliged to say anything until operations are finished if they so choose, even though such news would effect the share price dramatically one way or another.

LTT

I get what you are saying, however will drilling it’s different, if they had a discovery early on, even though it’s a new development, they are not obliged to say anything until operations are finished if they do choose, even though such news would effect the share price dramatically one way or another.

LTT

I suppose if Gil wanted the biggest bang per buck, he’d wait until after Cop27. I know I would, releasing news of a play opening discovery off the coast of Africa during Cop27 would hardly good timing.

They said all along they would give news once everything was completed so why not wait, get Cop 27 out of they way and allows Gil to blow the trumpet when he’s good a ready.

Of course this all depends on if they found anything and if they are doing the sidetrack, but the timings suggest there is more that a dry hole. Good luck.

LTT

Just wondering if they will suspend share dealing or if they will just announce, not sure how they will play it. As with the commencement of operations RNS they didn’t give a SPUD date, was this to give them wiggle room and to keep investors guessing as we are doing.

Someone said spud was on the 9th October, but no-one can be sure, either way the rig is going pear shaped, with lots of issues OR they have found something and they are gearing up for the sidetrack. Trading doesn’t give a hint either way, seems to be a bit of de-risking going on, which Is understandable but that is all.

LTT

Well Brightspot, going by LSE buys versus sells, it’s pretty even Steven’s at the moment, so nobody knows for sure, not even you, you’ve made some bad calls for those who take the time to view your history, what makes this any different. I feel you just pop up and flip a coin because if it were true, I can’t imagine you would be the only person who would know.

Of course I do hope you are right, but a binary guess is easy to do. But good luck either way.

LTT

Didn’t mean to spam your thread, it is a most informative thread indeed, hope you are on the money with this. Can’t help thinking they would be away by now if there was “nothing to see here”, also it’s not a wildcat well, they have the 3D to tie into the A-J1 well data so there shouldn’t be any big surprises on the way down.

Interesting times, good luck to us all.

LTT

Wyndrum, I think what James is getting at is, nobody values oil in the ground properly, so $8 per barrel is an amount someone who wants to buy Eco out would value the company at. This takes into account the appraisals they gave to do, the cost of development, local taxes to pay etc, etc. so there is always a discount to the actual price of oil on the market. Plus they have to be conservative, just because oil is going for $95 a barrel now, doesn’t mean oil will be that when in 3 to 5 years when oil starts pumping. Hope that makes some sense.

Regards LTT