Member Info for longtermthinker

Looks like we are not getting a SPUD RNS, not sure how long it takes to get a rig lined up and get the drill bit turning, but working 24hrs a day, can't imagine it taking longer than 5 days as time is money. If that's the case, we could be in the first target by this time next week! I know they might not announce anything until the have finished but the longer it takes the more positive we can be as it means they are doing the sidetrack which is only on the cards if there is a success on the Gazania-1 well.

" Gazania-1 Prospect is targeting over 300 million barrels of light oil. Pending discovery in the vertical section the JV partners have the option to directionally drill a second sidetrack well from the main well."

Fingers crossed eh!

LTT

Hi Happy,

It’s a nice idea, but if Keith hasn’t convinced them of the SL cash cow waiting to be developed by now, he never will. Seems Capricorn are doing the same strategy as Harbour, looking at cash generative basins with infrastructure that offer quick returns. If you ask me, they are being a bit short sighted as Harbour are, oil and gas is going to be a main stay of the energy mix for a good few more decades at a minimum.

Of course, could be totally way off and would be happy to be so, Capricorn on board would be great, but it seems highly unlikely, they have enough on their plate.

Regards LTT

I was thinking the same, do Eco give out a RNS confirming SPUD or is the recent RNS confirming start of operations all we are going to get until the end of operations in approx. 25 days?

I’d imagine we would hear something before then as the sidetrack is dependant on the success of the Gazania-1 Exploration Well. If they go ahead with the sidetrack then it stands to reason that they had some positive results on the exploration well.

So hopefully we should get a spud RNS shortly then we can work out when news might come/ start to leak!

LTT

If they are reaching TD around 25 days then surely they will hit the first target around day 10-15 days, so possibly expect some rumors/share price movement to the positive/negative around then. However have no experience with Eco drilling they might run a very tight ship!

LTT

Molokai 31st Oct
TkTowers 7th Nov
Starvinmarvin 7th Nov
Onsolidground 2 Nov
Injameswetrust 26 Oct
Wallact 8 Nov
Sandbox 31 Oct
Jiminey 21 Nov
LTT 19 Oct

Well I have reduced my holding to a token gesture of hope and fingers crossed, Good luck to you Pageofcups, I do hope there is a deal this side of Christmas, if there is a I will be back in like a shot, but not prepared to wait on hope and fingers crossed to further dilution in the current climate.

All the best

LTT

Hi Pages, hope they come up with some similar numbers when Borders actually get the results from their facilities study but still think it is too far for Harbour to take on, they talked about going into mature basins. Maybe once Sealion is signed off on FID they might get more interest but as they will need a much higher spec rig the mob and demob costs will be the killer with no one to share those costs unless RKH farms out their Southern Acreage and fancy’s a pop at similar prospects in their own acreage.

It’s now a wait and see what Borders can pull out of the bag and how much dilution we are in for! Hopefully they will bite the bullet and go for a decent size fund raise as doing it piecemeal is like death by a thousand cuts.

LTT

Harbour won’t be up for it, they have just walked away from 70% of Sealion, baulking at the costs involved, not sure what Darwin would cost to bring online but I imagine it must be $1B+

Regards LTT

LOL to my mind none of it. Payment if any is due upon first oil, might even be one year after first oil, but either way there is no late penalty fee that would amount to an extra 33% on the bill!

LTT

I don’t know but I’d imagine Italy have either won an ICSID ruling or have had a case against them ruled in their favor at some point, so you can’t have your bread buttered on both side!

If the annulment is thrown out then I’d expect the lawyers to be pretty quick going after assets that will hurt Italy if they refuse to pay up in a timely manner, they will have been earmarking them no doubt whilst we are waiting for Italys annulment window to close.

LTT

Thanks Leeds5,

That makes it very clear, must have missed your post on the 2nd Sept.

Cheers LTT

I presume that they have to apply for the annulment with a concrete reason, they can’t just say we want this annulled because we don’t agree, they must have to have some proof to start the process starts! Otherwise every case would get annulled to delay the inevitable.

But of course I don’t know how these things work. As for Navitas not being a good fit for RKH because there website is not up to date, they seem to be more active on Facebook.

LTT

Anth72, I like your thinking but can’t see someone paying more than 10p a share never mind £1! Anyone taking on Borders had got to get a high spec rig down there, they have months of drilling to do appraisals and then even if they can be used for production you then need an FPSO and all the wellheads etc. what’s that going to cost? $500m, $1B?

We may get an offer of someone taking on the cost of development and shareholders get a 10% production royalty ( didn’t Argos have a similar deal way back when?) but that will be all IMHO.

But I do hope I am wrong as 50p or £1 one my meagre holding would be happily received indeed.

Good luck to us all.
LTT

Have to agree Hoppa, they are putting their money where their mouth is in the hiring of Ian Ramsay with all his contacts, they haven’t done that for fun IMHO

LTT

I do hope Navitas and RKH pull their finger out and get a rig contract singed in sooner rather than later. The article on Oilprice says currently offshore rigs are commanding $400K a day (although presume that is for ultra deep water rigs) and they are talking up $500k rigs on the horizon.

However in the same breath they are talking about heading into a recession and the demand destruction it will cause! So rigs are heading up and will no doubt head back down as the oil industry tightens its belt yet again, same pattern of boom and bust. All the more reason to get this party started! IMHO

Come on FIG, what are you waiting on?

LTT

Plus they will need to dilute again even if they extend the licenses for another year! I just cannot work out what is happening with Borders!

LTT

Hi Much, let’s hope so. A conservative £125m award is worth approx 21p per share working on 588m shares in issue. I have worked on £125m imagining RKH sell the award to a third party for recovery thus getting the money sooner. Of course we can afford to wait and recoup the whole amount, but depends if Navitas doesn’t spare the whip!

So 21p without any value added for SL and the wider acreage, or the fact Navitas are about to be signed in any day AND have hired Ian Ramsay with all his expertise and connections to get cracking. I mean how much has been spent on SL and the wider acreage $700m ? $1B ? And we still have 35% and a partner with a will to get this thing over the line. That has got to be worth 10p on the share price at a minimum.

One day value will out and we will look back on this time with a smug feeling knowing we were right! IMHO

LTT

And no doubt Borders will have to come cap in hand to shareholders again as I can’t imagine FIG will extend the licence’s if Borders runs out of money in mid 2023!

Come on someone, buy Borders already!

LTT

Hi Decolady,

all of RKH northern acreage is split 65% Navitas and 35% RKH, all the Southern acreage is still 100% RKH.
I have to say I was a little surprised about that, thought Navitas would have gone for the whole shooting match but they didn't. Check the link.

rockhopperexploration.co.uk/operations/overview/#

LTT

I think many are just cashing in the extra shares they bought at 7p and why not, while things are still in flux, with energy bill heading sky high ( just got an email from my energy company asking to up my debit amount by 150%), a recession in the way and the UK currently rudder less. Who can blame them.

Even so we should get news soon that Harbour are out and Navitas are in. Then we might get some pointers as to what Ian Ramsay is up to, they have not hired him to sit twiddling his thumbs I imagine!

LTT

But that’s just it Page, when Harbour walked away, all the benefit disappeared with them. RKH paid tax on the 240m they received and the carry is going to be irrecoverable as how can you pay tax on something you never received?

So RKH got the Navitas farm-in giving all the worked up development plan and the money RKH spent out of that 240m on appraisal and exploration drilling for nothing! Navitas have not paid RKH a penny for their 65% of the acreage.

Anyway I do hope you guys are right and Borders get a farm-in partner who will give them a couple of 100m’s or someone buys them out lock stock.

Thanks again for your thoughts, plenty to think about.

Regards LTT