Member Info for longtermthinker

Just wondering how things will go down once the outcome of OM is known.

Sam at the AGM said the first they will know about it would be via email or a call from the lawyer's, so would they suspend the shares for the market to take the news onboard and re rate? I suppose it will depend on the amount, if it’s $30m with a 50/50 split then of course it will hardly effect the share price ( knowing our luck the shares will go down!). However if it were $150m and we keep almost $100m that’s worth about (just roughly mind) about 14p in cash alone.

Surely that amount doesn’t just add to our current share price and makes us 21p a share! Surely the potential of what can be done with the money, being able to pay our way with Navitas and the likelihood of SeaLion going ahead has to add a little more.

Of course the re rate even with such a payout might have no effect until Italy actually pay, but still, I wonder how things will pan out!

LTT

Hi Bloobird, I think that is what’s affecting Harbours share price, the possibility of a big windfall tax! But noting is set in stone as yet, so could be worth a trade on news! Even so Harbour are still making a load of cash, will be interesting to see how things play out there.

Regards LTT

Hi Hoppa, yes I agree, I think value will out eventually. An OM award would be most welcome, even $30m return of expenses giving up $15m after the funders cut would be great.

I’d like to think going forward we should get a little incremental boost to the share price on OM award if any; FIG/UKGOV sign off; news of Navitas fund raising; FID then project sanction.

All the above are a catalyst to effect the share price, however it will get sold into by those who want to get their OO funds back and leave the warrants until further news. Maybe a few will cash in their warrants early if there is a nice rise in the share price and who can blame them, although the buying of warrants adds a little to RKH war chest.

My main concern is that the share price stagnates and nothing much happens until a rig is actually on its way to the Falklands, there have been so many false dawns, it’s like the boy who cried Wolf!

Another concern is we will never get to our true potential, look at Harbour, 200k barrels per day, will have paid back ALL historic debt of PMO in 1year or so, maybe sooner AND they are doing share buy backs to bolster the share price, yet they are languishing at around 15p PMO old money! How can that be! So my “Value will out” doesn’t ring true at all.

Strange times ahead.

LTT

Yes same here, OO allocations and excess all available to trade in both my Barclays ISA and Smart Investor account. I also had a message from Barclays which included the following;

"Barclays Smart Investor will retain the warrants and we will allocate these to our customers accounts and offer a periodic opportunity for clients to exercise these during the warrants lifetime. I unfortunately don't have any sort of timescales or dates for these to be allocated to you, we would let you know when this is available "

I hope this doesn't mean they will give me a once per year chance to exercise the warrants as the time should be of my choosing, not when Barclays choose. I would like to believe it would be just a phone call to request the exercise of my warrants due to limitations of trading warrants online.

Well at least the shares are all live and those who want to sell to recoup their OO outlay whilst keeping the warrants for a rainy day will do so, then onwards and upwards hopefully.

LTT

MD, don’t be so harsh on LR, it’s easily done, look at the new Chancellor tweeted this morning that the Japanese ex PM Abe San had died. He just skimmed through and wanted to be first to send his condolences first!

LTT

Can see any news effecting anything in this current climate! Look at Harbour, making loads of cash, drilling going on, share by backs and yet they are closing in on 15p PMO pre merger!!!!!! How can that be? Are oil companies so demonised?

Crazy times particularly when hydrocarbons are needed so badly. Can’t help feeling we are in for a spike then a crash. €100+ oil is not sustainable, something has got to give, OPEC cannot raise production in any meaningful way! Just hope we get sign off and secure funding before oil crashes again, just the hint of US going into a recession and oil will drop like a stone! No doubt Navitas will be looking at the long game and not be concerned about short term fluctuations.

LTT

Too right Hoppa, $250k would very roughly be 25-30p per share on cash alone, add on the 7p hope of Navitas deal getting signed off and we could be nearer 40p than 30p. Of course this is RKH so most likely it will add 5p max, but value will out in the end. If Navitas keep to form they will be sorting the cash as we speak and have it in the bank PRIOR to FID. Plus they will be lining up are the ducks.

I wonder when the egg will drop that Navitas are going to take this the whole way and when will the share price reflect it.

LTT

I’m with you there Paul, however the fact this is going to the wire seems there are deep discussions over the Quantum, why else would it take so long. If Italy had won and there was nothing to pay, they would have decided that on day one and just given the result in there favor, nothing to discuss!

The fact this is taking time seems to my non legal mind that 2 out of 3 have ruled in our favor, the 3rd whom is ruling against, is fighting tooth and nail to minimize Italy’s payout! IHMO

But I could be way off the mark!

LTT

LOL buy Falky, quoting a price you can buy at is one thing, doing it is another! So you are saying everyone should have not taken up the OO but instead wait and buy on the open market? Hmmmmh I think you are way off the mark. You know as well as I do, the volume is nothing going by LSE, around 250k traded so far today. Any serious buying and this would be well up IMHO. But we can beg to differ.

LTT

Why do you say that Falky? You might be able to buy under 7p but not much under in any quantity plus, you don’t get the warrant, the right to by a share up to 18months from now for 9p. So how is it a failure?

LTT

Totally agree with you Maruman2, with regards to Shenandoah, they had secured ALL the cash PRIOR to FID. They were talking about doing it again with SL in there presentation with $1.3B cost, 20 wells, utilising the $300m spend by RKH and PMO. They are not starting from scratch.

Nothing can be officially said or done until FIG and UKGov have signed off on Navitas, then I can’t help feeling it will be like a starters gun. Navitas have been keen on SL for over 2 years, they hung on despite the PMO collapse and take out by Harbour and then hung on again waiting for a yes or no from them.

You cannot tell me they are going to get FIG approval and then rest on their laurels waiting for Shenandoah to come on stream sometime in 2024 before they hit the button!

LTT

Croft, my feeling is we have either won nothing or we have won a substantial award.

Rightly or wrongly my thinking goes like this, if we had lost or were just getting back our sunk costs, I think we would have known by now as there would be nothing to work out or argue over, I'm sure Italy would be very happy just paying what was it $29m approx to cover costs. Gets everyone else thinking twice about taking them to court using the Energy Charter and funders would think twice doing No win No fee, if they are hardly going to break even!

So if we have won and it's in our favour then they have to take into account the quantum, they have to work up some numbers based on oil prices. So my feeling is we have nothing or $100m+ which as Sam said at the AGM, it roughly equates to a 65/35 split to RKH. If we get that we are sorted to FID and first oil.

Anyway, after attending the AGM and having a very pleasant time with fellow shareholders in the Pub afterwards, I have put my money where my mouth is and applied for extra shares over and above the 1/8th allocated. I believe I will get all the extra I have applied for. But please don't take this as a recommendation to buy, we all have our own risk reward profile.
I must be crackers!

LTT

Thanks SpaceHoppa, that really is good news to get from the Horses Mouth. So that reduces our needs even further, so if Navitas get a $1B in and we only have to find another $35m, then a $70m win in our favour would be 50/50 split, so we would be funded to first oil and pay off the interest free debt for 85% of production. Now that is great news.

I cannot help thinking there will be another player come on board, someone with technical and development expertise. Navitas could give them 30% and still be operator with 35% of the spoils. Ok it might not be Beacon Offshore, they might not want to venture too far from the Gulf, but just feel Navitas will share the burden.

With regards to the Shenandoah project at FID they had already got the entire development budget, so I would like to think Navitas are beavering away as we speak.

LTT

and lets not forget OM! Of course now we can forget about OM, if it comes to nought then we are covered with the funds raise till 2023, if the OO is taken up fully then we can stretch that out even further.

However it OM does come in with $100m and we split is 50/50 with the funders, then by the sound of it, we are covered for our share of development costs going forward, what's not to like about that!

LTT

Hi everyone, sorry to bother, but has anyone got any information with regards to what happens to the warrants if you take up your entitlement within your Barclays ISA?
Sorry if this has been discussed before. I have just been on to Barclays about this and they said they will get back to me as the person I chatted with wasn't sure if they deal with warrants.

I'd like to think at the very least, if the warrants can't be purchased within my ISA that they would be available to buy for 9p outside at a future date.

Also with regards to the AGM tomorrow, do we need to take proof we are a share holder?

Many thanks

LTT

Quite right Hoppa, and one would like to think with $150m a year coming in the share price would be considerably higher than 7p even with the extra dilution from the OO and the full take up of the warrants.

LTT

Bloo, Navitas is looking at a $1.3B development with 20 wells being drilled, so if we allow Navitas to pay up to FID in full and the basis of a loan for our part, and we let them loan us the development costs interest free to pay back out of 85% of our production, then we would have to find $155m approx to fund our 1/3rd.

This is way down the line and I would imagine once FID is done and the project is sanctioned we will have far more options to fund our share of costs.

Regards LTT

Boot, haven't seen it drop below 7p to buy yet, not in any quantity anyway. Yes of course you can buy as many as you like under 9p now, but you cannot get the warrants, the warrant is the right to subscribe for shares at a future date for 9p, you don't need to pay up front now. If the share price doesn't rise above 9p, you don't have to buy them, where as buying at 7p now, you are tying up cash for maybe some time.

The OO is a sweetener to holders who subscribe, nothing more, nothing less. We have until end of 2023 to take up the offer. Tell you what, if the shares are still sub 9p on the 31st December2023 I'll buy your pint, how does that sound? But I think either RKH won't exist or we will be well above 9p, at which point I will just sell the warrants and pocket the difference.

Good luck to you either way.

LTT

HSBC trading account (None ISA) is pretty straight forward, just went to the Corporate Actions part, put in the details I received in a letter and viola, sorted.

I think we will hover around the 7p mark now until after the 29th June as people will want to sell some stock to take up their allocation and therefore stifle any price rise.

Hopefully after the dust settles things will move thick and fast! FIG sign off, followed by UKGOV sign off (or visa versa), RKH hire an Exploration Director to work with Navitas, then Navitas announce a forward plan and maybe before end of August we get the OM result which with a bit of luck is positive. Fingers crossed eh!

LTT

Erm Godders why would they want it to fail? The more cash they get in, the more it funds the Hobnobs and their bonus, which is what most people think. Not to fund a new Exploration bod to work with Navitas to get this show on the road!
LTT