Member Info for longtermthinker

Good luck with your future endeavours, I can totally understand your feelings and situation. I’m am in a slightly different position being at about break even so prepared to sit it out a little longer, but my patience is wearing thin.

OM SEEMS to be coming to a close and we are waiting for FIG approval also I read somewhere that Navitas are commissioning a CPR which to me is a positive as it shows Navitas are planning to do the rounds. Still it’s a long way to first oil.

The main concern for me is the FPSO, if RKH and Navitas go for a smaller development with half the number of wells, maybe you could see product in a couple of years from project sanction, but the sticking point would be an FPSO. Commissioning a new one would be a non starter as the main constructors are at capacity with 3 to 5 years build time, so repurposing something would be the only option and can’t imagine that being too easy. So that could be the Achilles heal going forwards.

Hopefully once FIG sign off we will get a clearer picture.

LTT

Sorry meant "It wouldn't make sense........" My spelling and grammar is terrible on this smart pnoe! Sourly!

LTT

Well we are at 3weeks since the Tribunal said it will close proceedings so we should here the case has been closed by the end of the month at the latest if not sooner. So at that point do they say RKH has one or lost? I would presume they would say they have found in favour of Italy or RKH and then they will decide on the award otherwise it would make since for them then to say, "We have closed the case, you now have to wait 4 to 6 month for a ruling!"

Regards LTT

I think what might be more interesting is are they in conversation with Italy to take a reduced quick payout in return for being allowed to drill/monetise OM as Italy needs to take its energy security more seriously as we all do and they have gas off their cost waiting to be developed.

LTT

Can't believe it either, what are they playing at, why aren't the lawyers chasing this up, surely the funders will want to get paid. We just want a result either way so we can move on and at least know if we need to fund raise or can survive through to FID and first oil.

LTT

No Falky, RKH do not need an extension from next month, they don’t need at extension until November.

Regards LTT

Hi Mirasol,

I suppose one saving grace is, Navitas as operator will not have its own team of engineers on the books as they are really just the money getters so why not rehire all the old PMO/Harbour team of engineers who worked the numbers, it would make a lot of sense. Plus Sam said at the investors meeting he had received many phone calls from vendors offering supports and opportunities to talk now Harbour were moving out of the picture. Why would anyone turn their back on that and start from scratch when oil is $100+ and OPEC have not been hitting their production increase targets for many months now and have no spare capacity!

LTT

I believe RKH’s licences are till end of November 2022 so hoping for FID by then with a fair wind. Can’t imagine Navitas sitting on their laurels and then once the deal is signed, they say, “Right we are going to start relooking at the development plans and rework the numbers for a smaller development, then we will get some quotes in!”

Although stranger things have happened! Who’d have thought we’d be waiting on the OM result with and impotent team of lawyers too afraid the ask what the old up is, in case they decide to turn the case against them just for asking!

LTT

Yep you are right Falky, high tide lifts all boats, but what cost to Argos? 50% of the whole acreage for one well? 75% for 2 wells? Would be a good deal if Navitas have a rig down there doing development drilling, but that’s at least a couple of years away, Navitas will focus on getting the cash cow up and running before poking wildcat holes anywhere else! IMHO.

LTT

As we say in Yorkshire, "Better to keep ones mouth shut and be thought a fool, that to open it and prove beyond doubt!"

Must try harder Falky, must try harder!

LTT

Falky, formed and trapped are different things, they have said 60B but only a small percentage will have reached a trap to allow it be extracted, billions of barrels will have gradually seeped into the ocean over time.

LTT

But Falky, what will they have to give up for a drill/few appraisal wells! Don't get me wrong they will do well out of Navitas coming on board, but nobody is sending a rig down there any time soon, Argos couldn't even tag on a drill in the last campaign! Once SL gets to FID and project sanction, then I expect good things to come Borders and Argos's way, but not before I'm afraid, but well worth a trade as the Falklands dream comes alive again.

LTT

Yeah for sure, but SL and Isobel will be drilled long before any development starts on Borders or Argos acreage. Once things kick off in earnest I have no doubt there will be interest in Argos and Borders, but they will need to get SL up and running before any drilling goes on there.

LTT

Yes Falky a high tide lifts all boats and I have a few Borders and Argos, so should see a good lift there but they are a decade away from first oil. Borders have a discovery but will need someone with deep pockets to appraise and Argos, they need to drill something first. They could do a Rocky and hit first time or do a Desire and go everywhere but the bullseye! Plus they both need a partner, so yes they may double or treble from here, but let’s not fool ourselves that they will get into the ££££££ anytime soon, would love to be wrong but just can’t see it.

LTT

Sam is holding off to give us long suffering a chance to get cheap shares in our next ISA allowance, for those are brave enough/foolish enough/insane enough. (delete as appropriate). Then he is doing a blockbuster release saying Navitas has signed up; Delek have taken 30%, the full Phase 1 is back on the cards, thus all the work done by PMO/Harbour will be utilised and therefore they expect FIG to be 4th Q 2022, Oh and OM result has just come in and we have been awarded £200m AND OM is now allowed to be developed and they are in talks with an Italian partner whom will take 50% in return for carrying RKH through to production!!!!!!!

Oh if Carlsberg did RNS's the above would be the result!!!!!!! Only way we would get a RNS like that would be tomorrow morning as an April fool!LOL

But joking apart, why would Navitas not sign, they have been hanging around for over 2 years now, they have agreed to take 65% of EVERYTHING in return of basically funding us to first oil. So are Harbour the hold up? Well they could be, but surely they want out and they are earning a lorra lorra cash as the moment and into the foreseeable, so putting say £5m in an account to cover any decom of the temp dock would be the sensible move, they can was there hands of RKH and SL and lets face it, Linda could probably fine that sort of cash down the back of the sofa at the moment!

Navaitas as I say have been hanging around, with current and future oil prices and energy security a hot topic, developing SL should be a no brainer, they have been sat on the pot for some time, so I'd like to think they have already been talking to people with deep pockets to get them in line for funding. Not sure UKEF could be back not he cards, but prefer it not to be, as jumping through hoops with Government bodies would be painful and long winded, no it would be better if Navitas sorted the funds themselves.

FIG, they are not going to be the sticking point, they have known about Navitas coming on board for over 2 years, if they had any reservations about it, they would have said something long before now.

So hopefully Sam is sat down somewhere with the Navitas boys and girls, putting pen to paper, then we can get an RNS today or tomorrow. Good luck everyone.

LTT

If they had made it through the covid crisis they would have been paying down debt easily with cash to spare for SL. Harbour must be making a lorra lorra cash now, but where will they spend it? Share buy back, dividends? Brazil is off the cards, haven’t heard anything about Mexico, so apart from adding rust bucket end of life assets that they stretch out to defer decom what are they going to do with that cash?

It’s wishful thinking to imagine they would pass over to Navitas then farm in as a partner, it would make them look foolish, but we could do with a partner who has experience at developing an assets, not just a middle man with cash buying in suppliers.

Suppose all with be revealed at the end of the month! Will Sam pull a rabbit out of the hat or reach in and find a damp squid!!!!!

We will know soon one way or another.

LTT

Have to agreed Taxibabe-,

Navitas got the deal sorted in the Gulf, what was it $900m? They will raise the money no problem in the current climate, even if Russian ended the war tomorrow, the ramifications will be far reaching, into the next decade and beyond. Saudi cannot fill the gap on thier own that’s for sure and renewables taking over a fair share anytime soon is pie in the sky.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Navitas brought in a bigger player to share in the funding for a 30% stake. Remember this would be a 30% of the whole shooting match, SL, Isobel all the little bits and bobs around SL and Southern acreage, where some potential big plays are once SL is up and running.

To my mind, if Navitas sign up then it’s game on, not only from a financial point of view, but a security point of view, Argentina is not going to mess around with Israelis company, they may sabre rattle, the may sanction them, but that would be it. IMHO.

LTT

Hopefully they will give our award prior to the vote on this, you never know! Thanks for the link Mogger.

LTT

LOL, I see where the confusion is, you weren’t complaining about MY trades, it was me saying the posting of your trades was annoying and who gives a monkeys, so sorry Falky I take it back. But even so, you are right, it is a waste of space and breath.

Good luck with your investments, imaginary or otherwise, but try and keep on topic please.

LTT

Flakey, I said noting of the sort, I haven't traded RKH in the past 6 months so how could anyone post about my trades to be upset by it. Either you are confusing me with someone self or you are clearly making things up!

LTT