Member Info for longtermthinker

Hi Mirasol,

I have thought the same, why would anyone keep RKH on board, why not just take them out, however, RKH have been around a long time and Sam has the ear of FIG, so it would be silly to get rid of them IMHO, for now at least.

And as for holding up the future development with cash calls, diluting us to oblivion, I don't see that either. Once Navitas are signed,

"The proposals continue to materially satisfy Rockhopper's proportion of both pre-FID and post-FID costs for Sea Lion"

So we may get a cash call/fund raise after the signing but with a significantly higher share price, but it should be minimal, if OM result does not drop. Then there is the matter of holding up future development, well if we work on a 40k barrel per day development, that gives 14k per day to us, that's almost 5m barrels per year. If we say we clear a conservative $25 per barrel, that's $125m per year to RKH. Yes I know there will be tax to pay and royalties, but I cannot see RKH being at 20p per share when they are earning about 20p per share! These are just rough, back of the fag packet calcs, but they could fund their share of future dev costs from cash or loans against earnings as oil companies do, no need for further dilution once SL starts pumping IMHO.

LTT

Latics, I think the most likely scenario is RKH announce Navitas are in, Harbour are out and possibly an outline of what they have done/been doing and a plan going forward with an indication of when FID will take place (4thQ 2022 fingers crossed). Maybe an outline of what liabilities we are left with from Harbour exit.

Then on a wish list would be an announcement of a 3rd party with muscle and experience taking 30% of Navitas stake and Phase 1 of the development back on the cards, no need for a smaller development.

Either way, once Navitas are signed, hopefully we have a rerate to nearer 15p and then Sam may do fund raise as per Borders, ideally showing faith by himself and directors putting some skin in the game. It’s going to have to happen sooner or later without OM coming in, so ideal time would be upon the signing IMHO.

LTT

Flakey nobody cares, actually I do care, I care that you clog up the board with your attention seeking ego trip! It is very sad that you feel you need to justify yourself. Just trade, sell , buy, do whatever you like but don’t post it here, that’s how you trip yourself up and make yourself look a fool.

Good luck with your trading, but no need to share.

LTT

Flakey, why am I listed in there, why would I care what your share holding is or isn’t! Who honestly gives a monkeys! I’m here to gain some insight and share thoughts and stimulate debate. This I have X amount of shares and I’ll prove it is getting tired.

LTT

I wonder if we will have an open offer like Borders. If Sam and the board were to put in £750k between them and offer another £1.75m to share holders, it would show confidence in the company and keep the wolf from the door in one foul swoop. We must be getting close to running the company on vapours! We all know it’s coming so why not bit the bullet and strengthen the balance sheet.

Or maybe they are close the signing and he knows that once the deal is done, buy the end of this month apparently, the share price should be much higher and thus limit dilution, plus it gives a little more time for the OM result to drop.

Could the OM award be due by the end of this month? Would they want to tie it up this financial year? Suppose it’s out of RKH hands but the lawyers should be chasing then up a little now as they will want there money for sure.

LTT

Sorry meant this for Godders and meant “You wouldn’t be found this……..” Damn you smartphone typos!

LTT

If I didn’t know any better, I’d say your continued moaning, like a stuck record, was designed to fill up the board with nonsense and cause any serious debate or questions to disappear between your ranting! But of course you would be doing that would you, there is No ulterior motive, you like you spend your days here, it’s like ground hog day!

LTT

I was wondering what the score would be in Italy was to do a u-turn, it would put OM back into play, however where does the leave the arbitration? Surely they cannot say we are opening up to Oil and gas closer to the coast so your arbitration is null and void!

I hope that they announce we have won and got a payout, then they announce the back track, thus ruling out further arbitration as the oil explorers will be able to go ahead. Plus it would but some value on the books as we could either sell OM or farm out to an Italian company who would just get on with it with no cost to us!

Just a thought.

LTT

Will if nothing else, it puts to bed the issue of what happens, and how much cash do we need to pay if FIG ask for the temporary dock to be removed. It seems like it's hanging around for some time yet, possibly until SL is producing, so that kicks that can down to road.

Still cannot understand what is happening with Borders, people are talking of £1 per share buyout, but it will take a considerable about of cash to get Darwin appraised, drilling and an FPSO up and running. Of course if SL is going ahead it's a great stepping stone to think about Darwin, but they would need a high spec rig to drill, so it's not like they could use RKH/Navitas rig during some down time and we don't want to be paying to share an over spec'd rig for 10+ plus wells so someone else can drill a couple of Darwin!

LTT

Hi Falky,

I wouldn't be surprised if someone didn't farm in to Argos and Borders if they are taking slice of RKH, it would make a lot of sense if they are investing in getting SL up and running, why not get into the other players to make use of a rig to drill exploration and appraisal wells. Johnson is a potential massive gas find discovered by Shell, but would need gas to liquids technology to make it worth while.

The bottom line is, there is massive potential in the North and Southern basins, we just need SL to get a go light and EVERYTHING comes in to pay. Good luck to us all.

LTT

No, I can't see Borders or Argos going before SL, if they can't get a very easy to drill SL up and running, they are not going to look at Borders. From memory Borders is a condensate delivery, which would need a specialist FPSO that could compress the condensate for transport as FIG wouldn't allow a footprint on the islands to do that (which would be a lot cheaper). Plus the drills are so much more expensive with a higher spec'd rig. We don't want the fiasco we had last time, with a crappy, over spec'd rig that cost a fortune.

LTT

Don't worry I am sure our time will come, then we'll be wishing we had bought more at these low prices!

LTT

I wonder if Borders have a farm-in lined up who is maybe also taking a stake in RKH, or the 3rd party coming in the RKH is taking a stake in Borders. It would make a lot of sense, come into RKH and get the party started, then have a foot hold in the Southern Basin with a 500m+ condensate discovery. Ok it will be an expensive drill and need an FPSO, but becomes a whole lot more doable with SeaLion pumping in a new oil province!

Just a thought.

LTT

LOL , great minds think alike Bear, you beat me to it though.

LTT

Godders, If you'd sold at 20p, you'd be a happier person, if you had sold way back when, three years ago, you might have got 28p per share if you'd been lucky, however you prefer to be here and moan about the company you have little belief in. I don't get this, it's not worth selling! If you really believe there was no hope for RKH, you'd be selling, crystallise the loss and offset it against your taxes. That would make sense.

What are you waiting for? You spout on about the board this, the wasted that, but all the while you are secretly hoping they make it and they sign the deal and get an OM result. We have until end of March, Navitas will be signed by then, sure your will find some negative there to moan about, that they are not moving quick enough. As they are on site, spudding the first development well, you will be moaning about that they will back out at any moment, that oil will crash, the sky is falling in.

You are a strange one Godders, and I can not understand why you hold on to this share with your beliefs. But good luck to you either way.

LTT

Have to agree, the days of an out of court settlement are well gone. Plus even an out of court settle would be private as RKH can’t keep the amount secret, it would come out at some point and then all the other companies than want to take Italy to court would come out if the woodwork. Either way they will have to pay (hopefully) they have just strung it out as long as possible to make anyone think if they go down that route it will take years, so think carefully.

Can’t help but feel we are getting close. I’m thinking we will clear about $30m after costs to the funders,(so $60m award) this would do us nicely and put us in a much stronger position, of course I’d love it to be more, nearer the $200m some have talked about, but reality has to trump the dream.

The Brucie Bonus would be if we got an award, then Italy lifted the ban, due to the energy crisis and then we farmed down OM to a partner who would develop it! It would also get Italy out of the hole it’s dug for itself!

LTT

Have to laugh, I know these things are not accurate but;

Vol. Sold 295,563
Sold Value £25,411.39
Vol. Bought 35
Bought Value £3.15

and end up with an Ask of 9p at the end of play! LOL It's peanuts in the scheme of things, as Kurgan3 says, nothing to see here. Not even those in the know, know anything as the volume would be through the roof! I imagine Sam is running a tight ship as with the 8th Dec announcement out of the blue! Plus the staff numbers are small now and nothing being outsourced, it would be pretty obvious who had the "Loose lips......" if anything was leaked!

Not long to wait now though, so all eyes on the end of March, anything sooner with regards to Navitas or an OM result would be a bonus. Hopefully we done need to, " Beware the ides of March !"

LTT

Hi Surfit,

Have to agree and it’s been going on for years. When I lived in Japan over 10 years ago I remember reading an article about the influx of Chinese investment around Asia. They were talking about big Japanese companies investing in port infrastructure in Indonesia, then China came in an built something 10 times the size in a blink. In Africa too, people praising China splashing the cash around.

We are all to blame, we buy our cheap goods and turn a blind eye to human rights issues and China not recognising Taiwan. But we can’t stop the roundabout and get off!

LTT

I think "Simple deal" is an understatement. We complained about them rushing into the deal with PMO and now we are complaining because they aren't rushing to sign up with Navitas! They said on the 8th of December it would be signed in the 1st quarter, what has changed?

We would be the first fo complain if the deal was signed, then FIG for some reason asked for the temp dock removing in the 2nd quarter, and we had to find $2m at the drop of a hat because we let Harbour walk without ensuring they set aside funds for their share of such an eventuality.

I'm pretty sure there are many loose ends that have to be tied off securley before we can move forward. I still feel FIG might have given an inch or two on TAX or Royalties to get this over the line with Navitas, but that is just my baseless opinion/hope. All should be revealed by the end of March.
LTT

Nice dream Ralph, with that dream we'd be nearer £1 per share without a doubt!

LTT