Member Info for longtermthinker

Hi Lactics,

I’m not sure about an RNS coming if Sam takes up his warrants, but then again as his holding will increase it seems likely there should be an RNS, particularly if he sells stock to take up his warrants as many are doing.

If Sam is going to buy his warrants with cash then as Mogger stated, if you don’t think the shares will go lower, why use hard earned cash that could be earning 4% or 5%. The warrants are available until the 31st Dec 2023 so why not leave it to the last possible moment? It makes sound business sense if you as me.

Have a good weekend all.

LTT

Godders, why does any share go up and down? It will be down until the markets price is otherwise, no amount of moaning, berating the board, Navitas, complaining about the weather will change that. Once FID is announced or postponed, or we win or loose the OM award; the FPSO is booked or Finance is secured, then the share price will react accordingly, but not until then, for now we are in limbo. Nobody is selling in case they miss out, nobody is buying; they are keeping their powder dry until there is a definite move one way or another. When it comes it will be swift IMHO, and we will get re-rated in blink either up or down, but that is why many people hold on to this stock, it's an all or nothing play, although more recently underpinned by 250m+ OM award sitting in the wings.

So I would politely suggest you just sell up and be done with it, wasting your time on here is not good for your health or sanity. Why not leave us to it, smug in the knowledge that you walked away, left the sinking ship that you believe is heading down to nestle next to the Titanic! You are not going to change anyone mind about holding, selling or buying, you are wasting your breath.

I wish you well, and hope you can find some other investments to put your hard earned into.

Kind regards

LTT

Decidedleaverage,

Why have you replied for Godders again, I thought it was against LSE’s regulations to have more than one account?

Regards LTT

Latics,

I think that RNS is referring to someone joining the company "as a part of that individual's overall remuneration package", I don't think a person who is not employed by Rockhopper would get a remuneration package.

Anyway I feel Paul Mayland fits the bill as someone to oversee the Sea Lion development for the Navitas / Rockhopper joint venture. He has experience of five FID's from his Cairn days, including three FPSO projects, one platform and one subsea tieback.(at least that's what is says in the RNS).

So maybe on this occasion the managements decision to get someone in for OM and someone in to take us to FID makes a lot of sense, would you not agree?

Regards LTT

LaticsRule, can you give me some example of when a company has issued shares to employees of another separate company to back up your claim, as it is quite disturbing to think RKH could give out shares willy nilly. Of course if they were non-execs coming into company I can understand the reason to give share options and the like to incentivise them, but to employees of another company who is partnering us!

Regards LTT

Why would RKH give shares to Navitas employees to keep them, it doesn’t make sense. Navitas should be taking care of its employees if it wants to get to FID and beyond, not RKH.

LTT

You’d think so Leeds, but then again, why bother when you are given share options and probably a hefty wad for just joining the company!

But let’s be honest, we would all take what is offered if we were in the same situation and I don’t mind if they can get this over the FID line and get the OM cash in.

As we edge closer to the 10th of January (think it’s around the 10th) for the final hearing on the annulment, then the die is cast. Can’t see them going back on their unanimous decision. Hopefully we won’t have to wait 6 to 9 months for them to tell us the annulment has been thrown out!

Then it should be onwards and upwards with FID, FPSO, Funding news coming thick and fast as 2024 leaves them with 3 years (to end of 2026) if Navitas really do plan for first oil in 2026! They will really have to motor, but then I believe they have been motoring behind the scenes, why else would they have been down in the Falklands again?

LTT

Hi Header,

Found this below about the waxy oil, hard to believe that all the excitement happened over 13 years ago!!!

Embargoed: 0700hrs, 2 July 2010

Rockhopper Exploration plc

("Rockhopper" or the "Company")

Sea Lion Exploration Well Ð 14/10-2

Oil Discovery Ð Results of Sample Analysis

Rockhopper Exploration, the North Falkland Basin oil and gas exploration company, is pleased to provide results following analysis of wireline MDT samples obtained from the recent Sea Lion 14/10-2 oil discovery well in the North Falkland Basin.

Samples analysed under reservoir conditions in a specialist laboratory are confirmed as medium grade crude with the following characteristics:

á API confirmed as 26.4 - 29.2 degrees

á Low Viscosity of 6.5 - 8.5 centipoises at reservoir pressure

á Gas Oil Ratio of 261 - 272 standard cubic feet per stock tank barrel

á A typical Wax Content of 18.4% - 20.8% wt*

á Formation Value Factor (FVF) of 1.16

á Low sulphur of around 0.2% weight

Sam Moody, Managing Director, commented:

"These positive results, when combined with our knowledge of reservoir quality from logging data, give us further comfort that a flow test of the Sea Lion well will confirm a mobile crude oil.

The wax content is typical for a lacustrine sourced crude oil and significantly lower than many other producing oilfields worldwide. Furthermore the viscosity, gas oil ratio, FVF and sulphur are all better than we anticipated."

Hi Ralph,

that was actually said at the AGM, Sam said if they needed substantial cash to go after the award, once the annulment is hopefully ruled in our favour, then one option could be to put it to share holders, we dilute raising XX millions to go after payment, by that time possibly €275m+ OR we sell part or all of the award to put cash in the bank without dilution.

Suppose it depends we’re the share price is at when we need the cash, personally I wouldn’t be happy to dilute by (just an example, Sam didn’t quote any numbers) say 20%, to chase after €275m that could be years after first oil before it comes in, I’d rather sell the award for 50p in the £1 and have no dilution to first oil and be able to stump up our share not covered by the loans.

Regards LTT

Sorry Blue, meant the pipes that carry the oil to the FPSO.

My memory is fuzzy but sure I read somewhere about steam heated hulls on the transportation tankers, but then it could also have been a dream!?!?!?

LTT

Hi Header, it will be taken in to account in the plan to get to FID. I read somewhere that they needed heated pipes to stop the wax solidifying, but it sells at a premium to Brent because of that, so maybe it increases lift costs a little but it’s offset by the premium.

Regards LTT

You said it yourself, it’s not priced in, the market sees it as not going to happen, so when it goes, they will not be ready for it, although more than likely they will get a sniff long before we do and the share price will start on a upwards trend.

LTT

I suppose you could look at the current situation like the discovery of Sea Lion wayback when, there was only a rerating of the stock when the news came in that they had oil, then value increased as further details came out that it wasn't Oil to Water, but a discovery!

So the market as you say is right, all the way up to the point when they have got it wrong, then they may try and spook holders out of shares to get on the right side of things, but for those of us who stick firm, we could make a tidy sum.

But of course you are right, Mr market is aways right. But they can be blindsided by any number of events, such as FID; Funding news; RIG or FPSO getting booked; OM result coming in within a couple of months after January. All are Black Swan events that the market cannot be prepared for, so while we wait, the share is priced where it is, as if none of these events are going to occur.

Regards

LTT

Hi Happy,

I have to concur with your sentiment, we are currently priced at 30% of the ward, so that means all the appraisal drilling, the 100's of millions spent on Sea Lion and the surrounding acreage, the seismic, the license's, the fact Navitas is funding us to first oil bar a bit of small change (small change in OM comes in that is), is worth zilt, nada, nothing, a bit fat ZERO.

Quite amazing when you think about it, we are sat on an oven ready development that can be up and running, producing oil for $1.3B and yet we are sat at 30% of the OM award!

LTT

Godders, capital raise!?!?!? Why would they need to raise capital, they have the OM they can sell off if need be, plus they have the warrants getting cashed in between now and Christmas.

You cannot tell me folk are going to leave free money just to spite RKH! Anyone who bought more shares and have warrants will take them up or buy and then sell pocketing the difference, they would be crazy not to.

So no need to scaremonger with a Capital Raises Imminent.

Regards LTT

Hi Danger,

that's a good point, if Sam sold off the OM award at say 30p in the pound, we would be looking at receivng 75m+. I seem to recall Harbour Lit having a sliding scale for their cut, don't quote me but is was something like 55/45 or 65/35 up to 100m and then over that their cut reduced further.

So it will be interesting if there is an offer on the table, would Harbour Lit, accept say 45% of 75m approx 34m or would they buy the award from RKH at a better rate, or offer to fund the enforcement through the courts (presuming the annulment fails) for 5% or 10% more of the pot?

LTT

There isn't a bit more action here with the Navitas team currently in the Falklands! No discussion of what they are there for, not insight from those on the ground.

Why would Ian and his team go all that way? Not to just see the penguins and try some local squid! If it was just to see this dock and facilities surely Ian would send down just one of the team to have a scout around, take some snaps and report back. What could they be doing that requires them all to be there?

Anyone got any ideas?

Regards LTT

Godders, would you mind pointing out the dates of the “Repeated diilutions”.

I have been part of the most recent one where I took up my shares and warrants so I’m effectively standing still with regards to dilution, but as I only started buying back into the dream in 2020 just before Covid, when PMO looked like they might get it over the line, I may have missed all those dilutions taking place.

Would you mind enlightening me. Many thanks

LTT

Decidedleaverage,

I wouldn’t start betting, you track record is not that good is it! You bet an RKH and look how that’s turned out, you got stuck here, too scared to sell up and move on. Trolling on and on, blaming everyone but taking none of the responsibility for your own actions.

I’ve bought some dog shares in my time, but I’ve taken the hit and moved on, it smarts, it stings when I think about the stupid trade I made, when I think how I got sucked in to buy more. But you know what, it’s a relief to just take the loss and move on. Life’s too short.

LTT

That's great news Jock, the main 3 are going, but probably just heading there and back to see how far it is! To maybe see some penguins and go squid fishing, nothing more sinsiter than that I imagine.

After all why else would the Chief Operations Officer, Vice President of Subsurface and Logistics, and Infrastructure Manager need to go? As by all accounts Navitas aren't doing anything, they are not announcing anything so they are no doubt just going through the motions, pushing papers around and sending the guys down on a fools errand.

Gosh aren't those 3 guys going to feel stupid when they cotton on that Navitas's plan all along was to do nothing!

;-)

Many thanks again Jock.

LTT