Member Info for longtermthinker

I cannot see Sam wanting to keep the share price lower, he has a tidy sum invested, why would he not what the shares to rise.

RKH put out an RNS before Christmas say have done a stonking deal with a Specialist Fund that once signed off could be worth 80m+ AFTER paying lawyers and litigation costs. They have also just done a great corporate update adding some meat to the bones of what Navitas are doing. So what more can RKH say?

We are now waiting on FIG and Navitas for the next pieces of news, which hopefully will be by June, but who knows.

I am petty sure Sam and the board are as frustrated as the rest of us, but nothing is going to put a firecracker under this share until we have funding. I see now, that is the catalyst that will get the ball rolling. We have been here so many times before with UKEF and PMO and no-one is buying until that piece of news drops.

After that, the handbrakes comes off IMHO, as everything will slot into place and news will start to come think and fast.

LTT

“It was agreed that realistic estimated timelines are essential in taking this work forward (initial estimates appear to be highly optimistic)”.

I wonder who is being optimistic or who is scared that they might just have to pull their finger out and sign off on things and get up to speed. FIG seems to drag their feet a little, how long does it take to say YES to the OM deal and move on!

They have been waiting for this for over 10 years, the least they can do is make sure they have the right people in the right positions and trust them to do their jobs.

Hopefully Navitas will drag them over the finish line as they are planning first oil after 5 wells, that’s incredible!

If they can get the long lead items on order, the FPSO refitted and a rig booked and on its way down to drill. Surely FIG can work back from first oil date end of 2026 and prepare for it, not say it’s a little optimistic! Better to plan for that and if it slips so be it, than push the timescale out to 2027/28. As my Dad used to say, give and inch, they will want a mile.

Come on funding and partner, once that’s done there will be no excuses.

LTT

If you look at the Bluewater website and look at the fleet and the click on the Munin on the map there are is some more info that says it has produced 90k+ per day, so plenty of wiggle room rather than just go for a 50k and have nowhere to go, which to be honest was one of my concerns about the quick start up to get to first oil, they would have been stuck at 45K per day.

So it’s all good to my mind. Roll on funding and partner news.

LTT

Happy I totally agree, Navitas have not just been a breath of fresh air, they have been a typhoon of it. With all the news of new hires for Sea Lion and FIG team ; the recent upgrade to resources and the lowering of costs AND RKH stating they have earmarked FPSO’s (note the plural, or should it be FPSO’ies) that are available. Why or why are we languishing at 11p?

On top of that we have €15m hitting our bank account soon that pays off Harbour and lawyers, with another possible €65m by the end of the year!

Suppose what everyone is waiting for is “show me the money”, once funding is sorted, then I imagine we will rerate to reflect all the other positives because at the point FID is a done deal. To my mind this will go hand in hand with a new partner/partners coming on board IMHO.

LTT

Slashing the royalties makes a lot of sense, even if they halved the royalty for the first 3 to 5 years, FIG would still make a lot of money and they would be showing support for the project to get it off the ground, also payback would be quicker to investors , plus it might incentivize Navitas/RKH to get up to 55K per day all the sooner. It’s a win, win.

They could also have a staged royalty, 3% first 2 years, to support the project to get off the ground; 6% years 3 & 4; going to 9% from year 5.

I imagine this has already been discussed with FIG in great depth.

LTT

I think any rig would be down there for a while. If you imagine 5 wells and they get to first oil, then the next 6 wells to get production up to 45-55k why not have the rig do some exploration/appraisal's while it’s free. It could easily potter about for then next 2/3 years until the rest of the wells need drilling, plush they will have revenue coming in to pay for it.

LTT

To be honest I can’t quite believe we are almost there. I know they are saying 2026 late for first oil, but when it kicks off there will be so much happening, Rig mob, boots on the ground, pipes and mud etc arriving, and as many have said, that should start to happen beginning of 2025, if not back end of this year.

Maybe the stone on the mountain side has been nudged!

LTT

I wonder if they have some down time with the rig, if they would consider drilling a couple of exploration/appraisal wells on Isobel/Elaine, it would make a lot on sense and also bring back a little of the excitement of the old days.

LTT

I think you are on the money there Thenorseman,

“The FPSO has a disconnectable turret enabling redeployment to another NFB field and allowing a second, potentially larger vessel to replace it on Sea Lion with increased production capacity above 80,000 bbls/d.“

The Munin has such a turret and is available, and can easily do 55k+ per day.

It seems strange that RKH have quoted Navitas’s recent report and then added meat to the bones. Can we also expect some news from Navitas this quarter with regards partner and funding?

They are sourcing long lead items and have a FPSO in mind, which means they must have an agreement in principle. So funding must be close. Maybe partner too?

LTT

WOW fantastic update! All we need now is the partner and funding sorted and we have the treble!

Surely the funding is all but sorted, the economics of the project just get better and better.

LTT

Thanks a lot Alma, so plenty needs to be lined up prior to drilling. Very interesting.

LTT

I don't think that no RNS for a while is confirmation that Navitas are doing nothing. All you need to do is look back through Moggers posts in particular to see what is happening behind the scenes and get 2+2.

All the signs are there if you care to look, such as, Ian Ramsey and team hired to work solely on Sea Lion; the money paid to FIG to get their team up to speed, in readiness to actually be able to understand the in's and outs of what Navitas and RKH are proposing and sign off on it; the shipping regulations being put into FIG legislation; Navitas last November saying still on track for first oil 2026, not to mention the multiple times RKH and Navitas people have been down to the Falklands.

All these things add up. Navitas are paying out a lot of money and putting in a lot effort to walk away IMHO.

As I have said before, if they are serious about first oil even the back end of 2026, they need to start the ball rolling on the FPSO, Rig hire, long lead items soon. To get the 11 wells done prior to first oil it would take a least 1.5 years of drilling. I'm working on the fact that from spud to target depth they were drilling in about 30 days on the last campaign, so I'm working on 45days to drill a development well (please someone in the business correct my assumptions). So a rig would have to be mobilised 2025, or even back end of 2024 if they wanted to hit the good Summer weather for the start of drilling.

Actually I have a question for anyone in the industry if I may, can the subsea stuff be done alongside the drilling or is it connected up after the rig has finished all the drilling? Sorry if it's a silly questions, just trying to get my head around the process of drilling, doing the subsea stuff and then connecting to a FPSO.

Anyway, I can't imagine them keeping all the prep IF they are doing anything, under wraps for much longer.

LTT

Come to think of it, can’t see Navitas having a lower percentage than RKH, so a more likely scenario is two players taking 15% each, it leaves Navitas with 35% matching RKH. With RKH possibly having 100m in the bank 2nd half of this year, they should easily be able to find their share not covered by loans so they shouldn’t need to give up a further percentage of SL. Hopefully!

LTT

I wonder if we will get two new partners rather than one. When I look at the link to Beacon, and other FID announcements for that matter, there are usually more than 2 players involved and more commonly 4 for 5. On something as large as Sea Lion and the surrounding acreage I feel there may be a couple more players coming onboard.

Pure speculation of course, but if Navitas is struggling to get finance, they may need to sign up more players to share the risk/reward. Navitas keep 30% then two more players come in taking 20% and 15%. These could be other oil companies but could also come for oil traders and even suppliers. Once they are signed up and show they have the cash to pay their share, bank finance should fall into place IMHO.

I have no reason to believe Navitas will kick the can down the road as PMO did numerous times. Of course I cannot be 100% sure they won't, but as it stands I am giving Navitas the benefit of the doubt, that they have kept on plan for Shenandoah so why would Sea lion be any different?

LTT

Happy New Year Goddess, hope you had a good one.

I have to say I'm also a little disappointed in the lack lustre share price in the New Year, considering the warrants taken up and the OM announcement. However, despite this, the warrants fund the company near term and the OM monetisation will kick the need for further dilution "can" well and truly down the road. Also should the annulment rule in our favor after April, we should, with a fair wind, be funded through to first oil! Which is nice!

All the best

LTT

I don't think they have any plan other than sit and wait as Argos did. Once Navitas and RKH get a rig down there in 2025 for development drilling they might farm out the acreage or raise some funds to drill a few wildcats. It would make sense with a rig down there maybe during some down time, but other than that, nothing will move until Navitas fires the starter gun.

Borders are pretty much in the same boat, nobody is interested in a stand alone isolated development in the Southern Basin, even though the numbers say a couple of wells, an FPSO and it would pay itself off in a few years, nobody is interested in a stranded asset. But again, once kit and boots are on the ground down in the Falklands, I believe Darwin could be a goer, but Sea lion would have to be first. IMHO.

LTT

Compared to Shenandoah, Sea Lion will be like a stroll in the park! Despite the low share price it could be quite an exciting 2024. Lots of boxes to tick and ducks to line up, but how much has been going on under the radar? Either nothing or Navitas and Ian Ramsey are running a very tight ship!

I still believe once things start to happen, it will be like a rock heading down a hill, succumbing to gravity, it will just take a nudge to get it going, then it will start to roll, faster and faster until it starts an avalanche of news. FPSO; Long lead items; rig contract; support vessels; partner announcement; FID; Funding.

Not in that particular order, but if Navitas are to keep to their self-imposed timescale of 2026 for first oil, even last 2026, they cannot keep their progress under raps for another 12 months, something has to give.

Hopefully at the AGM this year we will be patting Sam and the board on the back for getting 80m in the bank from OM and some significant progress made on Sea Lion.

One can but dream, however this dream is a bit closer to becoming reality, the closest it's been for 10 years!

Lets hope 2024 it Happy, Healthy and Prosperous for all share holders.

LTT

With roughly 620m shares in issue and with the possibility of securing 80m Euros which will be about £70m in 6 to 12months time (depending on the outcome of the annulment and the speed in which they share that outcome). This means we will be worth about 11p not including the cash raised from 2022 plus the warrants cash.

So we are currently valued at the cash we could possibly have in the bank in 6months time. This values 35% of Sea Lion; the surrounding prospects; the loans to get to first all; the Southern acreage; all the 100’s millions spent so far by RKH and PMO at zero. Not to mention the money Navitas has spent on new hires and the money they have put up for the FIG to hire a team to sign off and get this project over the line.

It’s quite amazing really that nobody believes this will happen apart from us current holders. I suppose it’s the same situation as with the warrants, keeping the money on the sidelines until the very last moment. Possibly, the bigger players are just wait for someone to blink, or make a move on RKH and then they will be all in or sell to the highest bidders.

This is my biggest concern now, not whether Sea Lion will be developed, but if we get taken out for a lowball offer, the longer we stay around these levels, the longer negative sentiment permeates into the BB, the longer it leaves us vulnerable.

Of course we wouldn’t get an Odey style attack to take the cash as it cannot be paid as a dividend and we still have the spectre of the FIG tax bill to be paid, but still it is a concern. Hopefully there will be some update from RKH or Navitas soon as something has to give if their plan is first oil 2026.

LTT

Space, can you put me done for 57p I was joking about hoping for £1, it would be fabulous, but can only see us getting to £1+ when oil is flowing as we are not doing any exploration on this trip. Although, maybe they might, with a partner, keep the rig down there for an extra 6 months to pop a couple of holes into Isobel and do some appraisal’s then of course all bets are off, a success on Isobel with a nearby development nearby, we might get into the £2+ region!

But as I say, but me done for 57p, I’d be more than happy with that 1st of Jan 2025.

LTT

Forget to say the 20p+ was on OM sign off and 15m in the bank, if the annulment hearing in April goes in our favour and they are pretty sharpish letting us know, then 30p+ once we have 80m in the bank. The reasons being it sets them up to first oil. RKH should easily be able to afford their share of costs not covered by loans provided by Navitas, who knows they may have enough to pay off part or all of their Pre-FID costs they are incurring at an 8% interest rate (from memory), although I have no idea how much Navitas have spent so far, but would be better paying off any high interest loans first.

LTT