Member Info for longtermthinker

I believe RKH have lookalike prospects close to Darwin in their adjacent acreage but cannot find anything on the RKH website about the Southern acreage apart from they hold 100%. It could be a bargaining chip if they bring in a 3rd party who might be interested in taking part if it and Darwin.

Can’t see how Darwin can get developed any other way. The presentation Darwin did about a 1 or 2 year return on investment had too many caveats and promises without any real substance. It will be very interesting to see how it all unfolds, but feel Navitas and RKH might be in the mix for a takeover. IMHO

LTT

LTT

Xmtman,

I did have a fantasy idea that Beacon would farm into Sea Lion with RKH and Navitas, they would bring down their drill ship after drilling Shenandoah to do the initial 5 wells on Sea Lion then tootle down to Darwin and drill there.

A drill ship although high cost per day would save on support vessels so it could be viable, but of course only if Beacon farmed in. But as I say, it’s just pie in the sky.

LTT

Hi gus0,

I like the idea of going it alone but cannot see it happening. Nobody is going to guarantee a minnow like Borders to go it alone. When you think what RKH has been through to get into the starters block, there is little chance Borders can do it. Deep water, higher spec rig, not appraised. It seems easy on paper, payback in 1 to 2 years but there are too many caveats. Just one is the rig, high spec, deep water, who it going to bring it all the way to the Falklands for 3 wells? Maybe a share would work with RKH to drill their lookalike prospects, but that is a long way down the road.

No I feel the best scenario is Navitas, new partner and RKH take over Borders for a cash and share offer, that way shareholders get near term excitement with Sea Lion and possibly Isobel and longer term they get Darwin up and running. IMHO

LTT

My buy yesterday at 2p was put down on LSE as a sell, so it makes no sense. I imagine those who pay for live prices will get to see the real info on buys and sells, but I take what I see here with a pinch of salt.

To be totally honest I’m not here for news of a deal for Borders, I am here for the RKH funding and FID news, my rationale is that an incoming tide lifts all boats, and Borders might get more of a lift percentage wise than RKH will. IMHO. If anything else happens then that will be a nice Brucie Bonus. Good luck to us all.

LTT

I imagine there will be a bit of selling or B&B going on now and up to end of March with those shares converted from warrants being put into ISA’s or being sold for a profit to lock in gains for the end of the tax year. I’ve done it myself, it makes a lot of sense, a cheeky 20% isn’t to be sniffed at. Who knows when the next bit of news drops , it could be tomorrow, it could be June before we get FIG to sign off on the OM deal, can’t think what they are waiting for, the sooner it’s done, the sooner RKH has a bit more financial security!

LTT

2% yesterday and almost 4% today.

LTT

The Erik Raude was stacked for 2 years after coming back from the Falklands and then got scrapped!

Hopefully we will get a nice 3rd or 4th gen rig that will be more than up to the task, don't need anything more unless they plan to drill Darwin and the lookalike prospects in RKH 100% owned southern acreage.

Either way, after reading the link posted by BlooBird I feel that Navitas will have a bit of bargaining power, after all, as everyone seems to be turning their backs on oil, who wouldn't be up for securing a 10-15+ year deal on an FPSO/FPSO's and possibly 3-5+ years of rig and support vessels hire! The North Sea is looking more and more shaky, Harbour is exiting for a start, they will still be there, but will only do the minimum that's required IMHO, nothing more. How long before other players follow suit, why put money into anything with a longer life span in the North Sea.

LTT

Also what about the energy trading companies that have made billions from this, no windfall tax on them!

It makes no sense.

LTT

WOW BB3, I’d better sell mine before you start offloading otherwise the price will plummet!!!!!!

;-)

LTT

Hi Space, so if we went to 30p on Partner and Funding news would you sell 100k ;-)

To be honest I’d be happy to break past 15p.

LTT

Hi SpaceHoppa,

sorry if I was unclear, I was working on the annulment hearing taking place in April, but it may be 6 to 9 months until we get the result, which as you rightly say, once the ruling is in our favour, then the 65m hits our account.

Of course if they announce the result in April that would be fantastic, but with the sloth like pace is has progressed so far, I cannot see anything that would make me think it could happen faster. However I live in hope.

Regards

LTT

That is a difficult one, it really depends on what happens to affect the share price. If it goes up to 20p on funding it may be tempting to sell a few, but if they have funding, then FID is a done deal and a rig could be heading down to start drilling 2nd half of 2025. At that point we are just a hop, skip and a jump away from first oil and possibly some exploration/appraisal drilling on Isobel/Elaine!!!!

It really all depends on the reaction on the particular news, then each to their own. Some people’s break even is much higher or lower than others. It will be interesting to see what happens.

For me, I might sell 10% if we got a good rally from funding and partner news, but that’s just me.

LTT

Well , Navitas, RKH and FIG have been aware since COP 26 that UKEF was going to be a none starter, and I doubt they would have been banging their heads against that brick wall!

Everything now hinges on funding IMHO, the partner, FID and project sanction if that is not one and the same as FID. Funding is the linchpin and everyone has been aware of that for some time.

Can’t help feeling with Navitas and RKH recent updates and a few articles in the media, that this is coming to a head.

What will news bring, a much anticipated re-rate of the share price or will it be a damp squib with us all looking to the next news, “once the rig is heading down there it will be reflected in the share price!”; “Once the FPSO arrives then……….! Or even, “ Once first oil is pumping surely there will be a re-rate!!!!!!!!”.

Of course my money is on a nice bump up sooner rather than later, but it’s strange times with the demonetisation of oil despite it still being the life blood of the world economy, so you never can tell!

LTT

Sorry everyone, I should correct my last post, it wasn’t Buffet who talked about shortages by 2025, it was Occidental’s CEO. Still a fair point though, as we head hell for leather into renewables, with wind farms being paid to stand down on windy days (is it just me, but that sounds crazy), renewables are not going to the magic bullet people think!

LTT

Hi Builder, that was my thinking also, it is almost a certainty that the adhoc will rule in our favor, possibility of a partial annulment is incredibly low unless they have found a loophole or corruption.

With that in mind we should be €80m the richer by the end of the year, 15m by the end of June at the latest. The other €65m coming 6-9months after, maybe sooner as I can’t see them dragging it on, they will want to finally put this case to bed. Then all being well if whoever is successful next year in getting the cash out of Italy, we might be in for a little Brucie Bonus! Not sure where the total stands at the minute but with interest to this time next year we must be knocking on the door of €300m! No wonder somebody offered up the cash to RKH for the award, they must be pretty confident of getting the money.

Hopefully we will have some update from Navitas long before then. Partner/Partners before FID and of course funding. Wonder what will be announced first, funding or partner?

Must be good timing to get cracking with Buffet talking about shortages and Saudi’s adding fuel to the fire (excuse the pun) by knocking expansion to 13m per day on the head!

Seems like a perfect storm is brewing, no wonder Navitas are chomping at the bit to get SL into production.

LTT

Pages, who is doing these costings? Navitas have a whole team of people looking at an FPSO and long lead items now, Borders did a RNS last January, those costing will already be out of date and still the big question mark is a rig, who would send a high spec deep water rig all that way with mob costs. If RKH had the money to drill the lookalike prospect close the Darwin they could share costs and it would be doable, but RKH will have to get Sea Lion over the line first.

I do hope something is happening below the surface, but as of yet there is little sign. What is better 100% of dreams or 25% of a possible plan? I thing that is what it will come down to, a free carry for 25% if we are lucky.

Regards LTT

Hi Thenorseman,

Thanks a lot for your reply, so it seems Navitas could still be on track for first oil back end of 2026, particularly if they use the Munin as you say, it’s done waxy oil previously so odds on that’s our FPSO.

Have to agree also with what you said about the board. With the story unfolding they could possibly do a bit more to promote Sea Lion rather than resting on their Laurels with a free ride. Why not do the rounds, big up the potential and get the share price up.

It would be great to get €80m from OM in the bank and have a share price of 30p+. Who knows, the time might be right to then make an offer for Borders, 20m and some shares might just swing it if Navitas chips in, then the Southern Basin is sewn up and ready to farm out once SL is up and running because once SL is pumping and boots are on the ground, everything comes into play IMHO.

LTT

There are many things that could happen, but one scenario is that RKH and Navitas take over Borders and they tie up the Southern acreage.

As it stands the board are resting on their laurels and nothing much is happening where as with Navitas and RKH it’s all about to kick off. So one option is once funding is sorted and RKH have their €80m+ in the bank, possibly by Q3 this year if the annulment goes in their favor, they could make a cash and share offer for Borders. RKH share price should be materially higher once they have the cash and the funding/partner is sorted so why not.

£15m cash and shares in RKH. I can see shareholders going for that as it would be a fast track to production and exploration rather than sitting and waiting for SL to get up and running.

Navitas would be crazy not to go for it and tie up the whole of the Falklands, then they could farm out to a bigger player and they could take a stake in the whole acreage, drilling a few wells on the combined assets. Darwin could be appraised and the lookalike prospects in RKH current acreage could be tested. It would make complete sense IMHO.

The alternative is to wait, and wait and wait a bit more. Borders have no money, they have a plan based of if’s and they would need a high spec rig to drill whilst they have no EIS, not production plan or anything submitted to FIG who are focused on, and have enough on their plate dealing with Navitas and RKH.

Don’t get me wrong, I have a small holding here and would love a big player to swoop in and buy the whole shooting match for 25p or 50p a share, but the tide is turning, even Saudi has knocked the investment to expand production to 13m+ barrels per day!

Regards LTT

Hi Thenorseman,

my comment was said very much tongue in cheek and I totally agree, RKH needs a total redesign of their website like Navitas or as you suggest Upland. Suppose they are between a rock and a hard place, damned if they update, "Why are they wasting money having a new website when we have no income", and damned if they don't, "Why can't they make it more investor friendly and promote the heck out of the potential!".

Hopefully with the 15m cash coming in from OM and a possible further 65m sometime after April and before the New Year, Sam and Co. might invest in a total redesign for the website and lay things out more clearly and promote our assets a lot better. As you say anyone stumbling across RKH for the first time would not be impressed, and anyone who has invested in the past and looking to come back into the fold, would think nothing has changed in the past 10 years!!!!!

By the way, do you still think the Munin is our FPSO? As you seem like someone from the industry, do you have any insight into how long a refit to spec an FPSO might take?

Many thanks

LTT

Thenorseman, but they have updated the website and Navitas have too, go into the operations section and click on Sea Lion, there is an animated flip around bit about SL. Ok, so not a lot has been done, but Navitas has gone to town on updating their website.

LTT