Member Info for longtermthinker

“The FPSO Munin is a unique FPSO, equipped with DP2 (Fully Redundant Dynamically Positioning) system and external turret to hold a quick disconnectable buoy system for supporting the oil/gas risers. The FPSO is also equipped with a Disconnectable Turret Mooring System to allow conventional mooring. The FPSO has operated successfully in the Lufeng field, Xijiang field and Huizhou field, all located in the South China Sea.

The high flexibility of the FPSO is proven at the Xijiang and Huizhou projects, where the FPSO operated for more than 3 years on full Dynamic Positioning with oil production rates exceeding 90,000 bbl/d.

Presently, the FPSO is at anchorage near Labuan, Malaysia, directly available for redeployment.“

Also I think it’s been mentioned here before, back in August there was an article in Upstream,

“Bluewater optimistic about redeployment of two idle FPSOs Studies funded by clients under way for Glas Dowr and Munin floaters“

All the ducks are lining up, we just need the starts pistol!

Have a good weekend all .

LTT

Thenorseman, I believe the FDP has been submitted, so I imagine the delay is with the EIS. Not sure what an EIS entails, but it could be delayed for any number of reasons. One I could hypothesis is the FPSO might have been changed, maybe they are planning on a bigger FPSO that will do up to 80K per day, one of the impacts being more tankers coming into the area form offload. I presume this would have to be put into the EIS! Could be wrong of course, but it’s just one thought I had.

Still, FIG is on track despite Navitas delays so it’s all good. The next couple of months, if Navitas are to stay on track, should be interesting.

LTT

I can’t help but think the tax bill is left in place as a deterrent. Sam and the board will be well aware that you cannot pay tax on something they didn’t receive.

I imagine it is just left in place to stop a predator take over to get the OM cash should the annulment be thrown out. It makes a lot of sense, it wouldn’t be worth anyone’s while to take over RKH and then spend months if not years arguing with a small town council over getting thier hands on €80m!

No l think it’s left hanging for convenience. IMHO and will be wiped off the slate once the millions are coming into the FIG coffers once they get to first oil.

LTT

BB3,

Yes I agree with you, I did some rough cals myself and came to the conclusion that if they paid out 25% as a dividend in 2028 (not taking into account the loan return to Navitas), the dividend would be larger than the value of my current shareholding today! So surely the share price would have to be many multiples of what it is today. One can but dream.

LTT

Hi Daikihaku1,

I was being conservative when putting out my thoughts. I still believe once we have OM banked, funding in the bag, FPSO being refitted, and FID in the last quarter of the year (fingers crossed) we will be at 50p+ particularly if Shenandoah comes on stream end of 2024.

Hopefully there will be an update from Navitas later in March, I think their quarterly is around the 23rd of March.

LTT

During the past 3/4 years Navitas has tripled its share price. That means on the news of taking on Shenandoah; Beacon partnership; funding; FPSO sorted; long lead items procurement; rig drilling and now on its last well. All these events have bumped up the share price as they get closer to first oil.

What does that tell you? So if we used the same rules for RKH we should see the share price at 35p by the time drilling starts which could be only 18months away.

Then we have OM sign off and the annulment hopefully being thrown out which will add €80m to our war chest. So I think 45p+ per share is not out of the question by the start of 2026. I don’t know about you, but I’ll happily wait another 21 months for such a return, and it could be much more!

Let’s see.

LTT

Navitas are still calling 2026 as the year of first oil. They have stated 5 well prior to first oil, which is about 6/7month of drilling and they are looking for accommodation for Spring 2025. Nowhere have they given signs of that timeline slipping.

They are no PMO promising the earth then going back on it and around the houses. Navitas have only been on this a relatively short time in the scheme of things and yet they have done far, far more, they just haven’t been shouting about it from the rooftops, they have just been getting their heads down and doing what’s important, sending bods the the Falklands, getting FIG up to speed with the right team and sourcing an FPSO, submitting a field development plan and working on the EIA which they are planning to submit this quarter. Eeeermm can you not give then the benefit of doubt? Apparently not and perhaps Mr Market is also short sighted. As you rightly point out, Mr Market is always right, until it realizes it’s got it very wrong.

I have a feeling this will be one of those times.

LTT

The market likes that news, Navitas up almost 4% today.

LTT

I know, but needed a bit of cash, plus I bought them at 2p and sold at 2.5p so a 25% gain is not to be sneezed at.

Don't worry I still have a healthy amount in my ISA.

LTT

And got 2.5p per share, so someone is hovering them up!

LTT

Well their not hanging about are they!

"Those interested in all or part of what was announced must send their proposals to pippa.christie@navitaspet.com, no later than March 1, 2024"

I think Daikihaku1 might have a point, I see FIH share price heading north and an increased dividend over the coming years.

LTT

Well I’d like to imagine a EOI being sent out now means boots on the ground possibly this time next year at the very latest, can’t imagine it being sent out now for December 2025? But who knows.

Thinking out it a bit more however, maybe it is for back end of 2025. Rig mobs down to arrive December 2025, drilling starts for the 5 wells with subsurface being connected up, what would that take 8 or 9 months ( someone with knowledge can amend) prior to first oil, with the FSPO tootling down Q3 2026 to be connected up and testing, then first oil happens December 2026, rig stays and starts drilling the next 6 wells.

Oh if only it was so simple ! LOL.

Regards LTT

Totally agree superritch,

very soon we will have the OM cash once FIG get off the pot!!!! ;-)

Then we have the annulment hearing which if it goes in our favour adds to our funds, although we may have to wait a while to get to that point.

Then there is news from Navitas, they could announce at anytime that they are bringing in a partner; have sorted funding; have the FPSO heading off for refit or a rig contract booked, but they could also announce everything together.

At such a time, i'd like to think we would re-rate to at least double what we are at now, then steadily rise into the rig being mobbed and then, drilling starts, then FPSO being hooked up, and then first oil. If we stay at sub 25p while all that is happening I would be selling my Granny to buy more shares because the city must have been blindsided!

Still a rising tide lifts all boats, so I'd expect Borders to get an uplift also, possibly more percentage wise initially that RKH, which is why I also have a small punt in Borders. Good luck to us all.

LTT

But Phil, seems like UKGov is changing its tune,

"the UK could be prepared to back the Falkland Islands government to use its own financial clout and borrowing power to support oil exploration"

The above statement goes against what was said on the 5th of Feb don’t you think? Or an I reading it wrong.

Regards

LTT

I wouldn’t be surprised if FIG borrowed cash to help with funding of Sea Lion and Darwin, the loans backed by UKGov. So they are not directly investing in oil, just supporting FIG to do it.

Interesting times

LTT

Well any take-over in the coming years will require them to buy out the options at well, so it’s a win, win for the new guy.

LTT

Well they won’t be able to take them up for 3 years so they must be planning to stick around. Possibly when they imagine first oil will flow after Sea Lion!

They must have someone on the hook, what would be the point in having share options in 3 years if someone was going to snap up Borders. No I think a partnership is more likely now. Navitas or similar step in offering funding the development for 60/70%, even if Borders can keep 30% they will be a cash cow.

Interesting times, onwards and upwards hopefully.

LTT

Hope you are right Rookie, 3p+ would be nice, 6p+ would be even nicer, but are they walking this up to get another fund raise in or is there another reason?

That do we think is about to happen?

1. They are walking it up for a fund raise

2. They new guy is going to go cap in hand to the city for cash to self fund

3. Someone is going to farm in for funding the lions share and we get to keep 25%

Which one is most likely, considering RKH had 100% of SL with over a $1B spent of appraisals and feed when Harbour walked away, and they got Navitas to loan them most of the money they would need to get to first oil.

LTT

Hi LaticRule,

I cannot see a takeover before, partner, funding or FID, if they had wanted or tried to do that, they would have done it some time ago when RKH was at their weakest, but now with the OM deal likely to happen, they are in a much stronger position.

Once that is done and the touch paper is lit, it will all depend on the share price and how weak or strong it is, but even so, once FID is announced I cannot see many weak holders, they have held on for so long, why sell up when they can see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Also there is the hassle, cannot see Navitas bogging now FIG with MORE work so take over RKH along with sorting FID, they would possibly knock back Sea Lion to 2027 and nobody wants that.

LTT

Not to mention the risks, Darwin West hasn’t been drilled, imagine drilling and the seal wasn’t intact, it was all water. How would that affect the return on investment? Darwin needs appraisals and an exploration well on Darwin West, THEN a plan for development can be worked up. No one is going to head down with a drill ship/5th or 6th Gen rig for a couple of wells. Once RKH has cash coming in from SL, they might share a rig with Borders (if both companies still exist) to drill Darwin West, some appraisals and a couple of exploration wells on RKH Southern acreage, but cannot see it happening before unless a bigger player comes along with Navitas and they pwant some of that condensate action. IMHO

LTT