Member Info for longtermthinker

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Aiminvestor,

How do you have time to post? Mogger or anyone for that matter shouldn’t have to justify why, when, where, or how they do there research and share it here, why would you even ask?

Just be happy that people do share their thoughts, info and insights.

LTT

Morning SpaceHoppa,

I cannot understand the reasoning why FIG won’t sign off on the OM deal, surely they must see the benefits to the SL project as a whole with RKH in a much more financially stable position . Yes they could let the deadline pass and both parties could extend the deal but it wouldn’t look good for FIG or the SL project going forward!

As for going to court the sort out the tax, I don’t think it will come to that. Once oil starts following the tax will be wiped away as it will be pocket money once the royalties start pouring in.

Onwards and upwards to the AGM

LTT

Morning Aiminvestor,

I used to think to same, but I just think FIG have a lot on their plate at the moment and are maybe spreading themselves a little thin!

The EIS has been in pre-consultation since November 2023, so that's over 7 months they have been pouring over it, sending it backwards and forward, being tweaked here and there, getting ready for a public consultation. They are most likely outsourcing the grunt work as they will not have the person-power to do it all themselves, but even so that takes time and although OM sign off is important for RKH, i'd rather it take the back burner to Navitas's EIS, as getting that into the 42 public consultation period gets us a lot closer to FID which is the major prize here. Hopefully the funding is being sorted as we speak so when the EIS is signed of, funding is announced paving the way for FID by the end of the year.

Even if FIG signs off OM next week and the annulment is ruled in our favour in July, although the 80m Euros would be fantastic, it becomes quite insignificant once oil starts following. If oil is flowing at 55k per day for a full year in 2027, our share is approx, 7m barrels a year @ $40 per barrel pre-tax and royalty payments(working on Brent at $70 per barrel), that's $280m . Ok, these are very rough numbers and doesn't take into account loan repayments and offsetting of tax loses along with a myriad of other things that can move the numbers in or out of our favour. The point is, although it would be incredibly nice to have the 80m Euros in the bank to pay our share of Pre and Post FID costs, it all pales once FID is announced and we are heading down the road to first oil.

Regards

LTT

Hope your right Rookie, just need Sea Lion to get over the line then it’s game on for the Southern Basin, all that condensate won’t be sidelined once Sea Lion is up and running.

LTT

Here is the link to Navitas website that has the english version of Moggers Shenandoah final well completion announcement.

https://navitaspet.com/investor-relation/

This is great news, the fourth well was apparently the most risky, so now it's done bar the completion, it takes away a huge amount of risk, hence a likely cause of Navitas's share price increase.

LTT

Well baring news they are wanting to ride this up a little ready for a fund raise before year end! Sorry to be pessimistic but it seems the best we can hope for here is for Navitas to get funding and FID Sea Lion, then we ride up on their coat tails.

Of course I hope that I can wrong and Borders announce a partner/farm-in/bond issue to go it alone, but at this moment in time, words talking about dividends that are minimum of 3 years away are pie in the sky! IMHO.

However I still hold some of these lottery tickets just in case. Good luck everyone.

LTT

Yes they have now surpassed their 5 year high. Pretty impressive stuff, I think we can expect the same pattern as we reach FID, funding, FPSO going into dry dock for refit, rig drilling development wells and so on up to first oil.

Mogger, you must be slacking, a whole hour!!!!!!! LOL 😉 Many thanks as always for sharing your finds with us.

LTT

Totally agree Tincan1995,

Talk of £1 a share is pretty much pie in the sky, we will have to give up a hefty percentage to get this off the ground or wait until boots are on the ground with RKH getting started. Then we might just have a chance, but until then we will have to brace ourselves for more dilution I’m afraid unless the new guy pulls a rabbit out of the hat!

LTT

Nice to see RKH and Harbour hitting new 52 weeks highs, seems like the unloved are turning a corner. Of course still some way to go, but still it’s good to see.

AA, I was wondering about LOI and if they were RNS-able. All very different from the PMO days, Navitas are playing their cards very close to their chest. I wouldn’t put it past them to keep quiet until FID!

Either way, nothing to see here until after the Election IMHO, why would they rock the boat with Argentina when UKGov cannot respond to any sabre rattling.

Next bit of news will hopefully be OM sign off by FIG, fingers crossed 🤞

LTT

AA, I wouldn’t bet on the next government doing something like putting up corporate tax for overseas oil companies only. After all the windfall tax was on energy companies, but what about oil and gas trading companies whom made billions out of the volatility, didn’t read about a windfall tax on their profits!

LTT

I suppose what we have to weigh up in our own minds (Navitas and RKH also) is after first oil and the drilling of a further 6 wells, would they let the rig go and sit out the next 2 or 3 years until the next drilling campaign just letting the cash roll! 🤔

I seem to recall Sam saying there were enough prospects to have a drilling rig on site for 5 years once Sea Lion was up and running , kept more than busy doing exploration and development drilling. Let’s face it, with the North Sea heading for death by a thousand cuts, who wouldn’t want to do a deal to have a rig continuously drilling in the Falklands for the next 5 years or so. Everyone is doing harsh environment ultra deep water drilling off Guyana, Brazil and Africa, and rig rates are high, but our relatively benign basin requires a 3rd Gen Semi-sub which should be considerably cheaper.

If Navitas are serious about getting the basin up to 200k per day, they will have to drill baby drill, not take a breather and sit back on their laurels, particularly if it comes to pass that oil stays in the $80-$90 range for the foreseeable.

Anyway it’s great to read some though provoking discussion that isn’t ramping or de-ramping, it’s what these BB’s are all about.

Also, is Navitas 1st Q results due soon? Past 2 years they have been published mid May towards the end of May, but never this late! 🤔

LTT

Chess,

Where did you get your numbers from to drill in the Falklands costing $60 and $120 million per well? Are these current costings? I realise rig rates are heading up from when we appraised Sea Lion way back when, but I seem to recall we could get a rig and crew all in for $500k per day and from spud to target depth averaging 30 days give or take. That’s a cost of $15-$20m per well.

Maybe rigs are more expensive these days and crew costs too but cannot see it being 4 to 8 times more 🤔

I think as you say, the jury is out on which way it will go, but with Shenandoah coming online from

2nd half of 2025, Navitas will be awash with cash, they might just be tempted to put some into the next big thing.

Interesting thread though all the same.

LTT

Chess, Alma is on the lines I was thinking.

I seem to recall Sam saying in the days when PMO were calling the shots and they had a similar deal regarding loans and paying back (although I seem to have stuck in my head 15% which must be wrong) but either way, Sam said they could possibly get a better rate some time in the future than pay back at PMO's interest rate.

That is what I imagine RKH would do, it would be quite ridiculous that they would sit back and allow Navitas to take 85% of their revenue, even if most of it is at 0%, although Pre-FID costs are going to be a tidy sum that is going to have interest running at 8%.

No, nearer that time,Post-FID I would expect RKH to do a fund raise or get RBL to pay off Navitas and then some. They SHOULD have a much higher share price so less dilution if they go down the fund raising route, then they have a little war chest to drill Isobel and the like. It would be insane for them to have to give away slices of SL to fund their share of further exploration in the basin.

Regards LTT

OscarIndiaLima,

I hope you are sort of right but your timeline is a little off! I am pretty much hoping for first oil late 2026/early 2027 when the FPSO is connected up, then drilling of the further 5/6 wells to complete the first stage of Sea Lion development. However, with the money rolling in after the 5th well and possibly having 6 months of income whilst they drill the next 6, why would they de-mob the rig and send it on it's merry way?

My thinking is with income rolling in, they would keep the rig and head down to Isobel/Elaine and drill and appraise there which could boost RKH share price significantly if Isobel turns out to be another Sea Lion or even bigger! Ok so it wouldn't be like the good old days of the Sea Lion drill as we would be a 35% holder (if we are still around and not taken over), plus there are a lot more share in issue, but still, there could be a nice bump up with "Sea Lion II" being appraised.

That way the rig could be kept busy until the 2nd phase of Sea Lion is ready for drilling and the bumping up of production. Come to think of it, this could be why they are targeting 2 FPSO's, they get SL up and running with a smaller FPSO, getting up to 35-55k bpd, then appraise and drill Isobel. When the time comes to get Sea Lion ready to up production further, in comes the larger FPSO, and the smaller one heads down to Isobel to get working there! It would make a lot of financial sense IMHO.

No doubt this will all be in the EIS that FIG have been looking at since late last year, we are just waiting for it to drop into the public domain for the 42 day public consultation so we can see the devil in the detail. No FID coming before that drops.

LTT

Have to agree Ralph, I don't want to slip this mortal coil before RKH and Navitas come good, I'll still put some aside for my daughter, but would like to enjoy a few of life's little luxuries and not have to work as hard!

We could get FID this year/early 2025 and have bods are hitting the ground in the Falklands from the first half of 2025. We could have a drilling rig making a start around the beginning of the Falklands Summer, which would be from December 2025! I don't see why we wouldn't be double the current share price if those things came to pass and maybe a bit more on top!

After all, if RKH follow the same pattern as Navitas who have tripled their share price over the past few years as they head closer to Shenandoah production, why shouldn't RKH? All we need is the funding and FID and its game on, if we are still at 13p as the FPSO is being connected up, I will loading up with as many shares as I can get my grubby little hands on!

Have a great long weekend everyone.

LTT

Aiminvestor,

“Whilst risks plainly remain, it is possible that by this time next year we will have both completed the monetisation of our Ombrina Mare Arbitration and seen FID at Sea Lion.”

Where does it say FID has slipped? He is saying BY this time next year when they publish the final results. So OM and FID could still happen in 2024.

LTT

"When you have a fiscal challenge, the bigger you are, the stronger you are," Ithaca's Myerson said, adding the company was looking to expand overseas to Norway, Denmark and elsewhere.

I realise Ithaca is focused on the North Sea, but with the spectra of a Labour Gov coming into power almost nailed on, which would mean the EPL is raised and the re-investment tax break will be cut, why would anyone look to increase investment in the North Sea? Could that "Elsewhere" be the Falklands, after all Ithaca are backed by Delek and with dwindling returns why do more in the North Sea than they have to! There will come a point with so many projects pushed back; bigger companies leaving the NS, that it will just spiral down and will never come back to where it once was.

It would make a lot of sense pre FID and give some clout to the project, having ran Oil and Gas operator onboard. It would no doubt help with funding too, undecided players may come into line with Ithaca coming into the fold. Just a thought!

LTT

As I say Pages, it's click bait, saying there are billions there and mobilising a drilling campaign to get it are two totally different things.

Look, we have 462m barrels in Darwin East and West and an appraisal and phased development plan published Jan 2023 (although the numbers will be way off now with rig rates and inflation, etc) and we still cannot get anyone down there when it's sitting there on a plate, so why would China and Russia head further south to the most inhospitable place on the planet to drill wildcats that could discover 100's of millions of barrels or could come up dry!

Yes they may try it one day, but that would be 20 or 30 years from now once the low hanging fruit has all but been exhausted. So I wouldn't lose any sleep over it, if China and Russia where heading down there in earnest to develop the area, I'd be much more concerned about a world war than them stealing our oil!!!

LTT

Afraid it’s all click bait Pages, there is no way Russia would or could nick the oil in Antarctica, it’s not like moving into the Ukraine where they have supply chains on their own soil, they would have to mobilise massive amounts of equipment and fuel to get started. Also they would be wildcat drilling in a harsh environment, that could turn up dusters.

So the idea they would just go down, drill a hole and start producing is nonsense! The survey ship has maybe seen some signs of oil and gas on the sea bed such as chimneys, but apart from that they haven’t done any seismic studies with 2D or 3D interpretation.

What we need is something from the company, not click bait or Argentina drilling 800km to the north, we need something concrete from the company.

Regards LTT