Member Info for longtermthinker

Hi Much,

Well I was just looking at the chart and since the drop below 20p in Jan 2020 we have been up and down but never regaining the dizzy heights of 20p since, not even when OM went in our favor! Hard to believe really that since Jan 2020 we have been down below 5p at one point and have finally got back up to 15p.

Anyone brave enough to have filled their boots at sub 7p (I’m sure there are a luck few who did) will be sat on a tidy profit or will have reduced their average greatly. But what happens next? The annulment going in our favor might just add a few pence if we are lucky, which would take us over the magic 100m market cap, which in turn would put us on the radar of a few more investors. However, the EIS and FDP might get signed off first which I’d hope adds a few pence also.

Either way, you a right, there is not going to be the roller coaster ride we have had in the past, but why would we, once FID and funding are in the bag, taking us back to say a conservative 20p a share, I’d be more than happy to sit back and take a 100% games per year up to first oil! Once they have finished the development drilling, IF they decide to do some appraisals on Isobel, well then I expect a bit a bit more excitement like the good old days.

LTT

Hey hey hey, JPDM,

a blast from the past! Great to hear from you and I am looking forward to some "Fireside wine reviews" along with your rubber band theories once things really start kicking off on here.

Fingers crossed RKH/Navitas finally get this over the line to FID, then onwards and upwards to first oil.

I hope you and yours a keeping well and have a great Summer whatever your plans.

LTT

We are just a week and a half away from the closing of the public consultation, then it will be up to Navitas to update/amend the document to FIG’s satisfaction. Around this time, maybe Sept/Oct, we should get sign off on the FDP and then we will find out if Navitas has been doing the rounds with their Bank bods getting the cash secured in principle or if they will have to start from scratch. My money is on the former, 2 years they have been on this, knowing that UKGov is a none starter so they will have been lining everything up for a bond issue or similar, as I believe this means the entities putting up the cash can remain anonymous which would be highly desirable to not go on Argentina’s naughty list.

Still feel there will be a last minute partner taking a 20% stake as happened with Shenandoah. It would get them to first oil with $240m less to secure through bonds and vendor financing.

Then there is the annulment result that could drop at any time. It would have been nice if we got it ruled in our favor before the Summer hols. I cannot see what they could be doing, but I suppose they have to show that they are thinking deeply about it.

Once the EIS and the FDP are signed off things could move thick and fast! Funding and FID happening at the same time and the Ian Ramsey and team hit the GO button as it said in the latest presentation, “They are chomping at the bit” to get started, 🤔 or words to that effect! 😉

So, it’s time to kick back, go on holiday/take some time off, spend some time with family, friends, loved ones and leave things in Navitas’s very capable hands because once it kicks off this BB will be on fire!!!!!🔥

Good luck everyone and have a great Summer whatever your plans.

LTT

Godders, RKH won’t be asked to resubmit anything, Navitas have created the EIS. I am pretty confident they will get through and will add some lines to appease the greens and put in caveats that migration patterns of birds will have ongoing studies from now and the decommissioning regs will be updated, etc. Plus these are only thoughts and enquiries from the general public, FIG will listen and may or may not ask Navitas to do something about it.

Let’s face it, the conservationists will always be against oil and gas developments no matter what Navitas suggest.

They are no doubt against fishing and the cruise ships that currently are the lifeblood of the island, so if they stopped that, where would the islanders get their income from?

Would be interesting to hear from islanders to how Ian and Navitas presentations have been received and what if any, concerns the islanders have?

LTT

I actually read somewhere that a dart throwing monkey was a better stocks picker than a professional trader!

No figure!

LTT

I suppose it’s the holiday season and the idea of a further fund raise and thus dilution.

Of course for those in the know, they will care not a jot, but us mere mortals will be holding onto cash just in case. If no partner, farm-in or buyout then they will have to raise some cash. Would it be this year or can we survive until Q1 2025.

It would be good if we can, as as rising tide lifts all boats. Sign off of the EIS, FDP and possibly funding and FID in Q4 must have a positive effect on us, that would be a key time to either announce a partner of raise some cash.

LTT

But isn’t that why we buy and sell shares, because of the potential. If everything was valued correctly there would be no market, no buying or selling because there would be no point.

Anyone buying now, is doing so on the potential of OM news; EIS and FDP being signed off; funding and FID in 2024. Yes, they might not happen anytime soon, or as with OM it could drop tomorrow! What the market will attribute to the €65m dropping into our account is another matter, it could take us to 20p or be a damp squib, but the fact is nobody knows until it happens. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, “If I’d just bought more, if I’d just sold when…….!”

Foresight is a totally different thing, we are all placing our bets on an outcome nobody can predict. We can hypothesize, look at all the angles and make a guesstimate, but that’s all it is.

We all have different goals as has been discussed, some would snap the hand off an offer of 30/35p a share and others would say, “From my cold dead hands!” Some, as has happened have sold recently, but why not, from the warrant offer price it’s an incredible return.

The bottom line is we all have our own targets we would like to achieve, but they shouldn’t be set in stone, we should adapt and be flexible.

To my mind, the main hurdle is Funding and FID, once that is done, it may or may not light a fire under the share price, but it will offer us some protection from a lowball offer, it should be a slow burn as more and more news comes out such as boots on the ground; FPSO heads to dry dock; Rig contract signed; rig mobilized for development drilling, etc, etc. If the share price is under 25p at that time I will be very surprised and will rethink my investment here.

LTT

I’m with Ralph on this one, Navitas have enough on their plate, raised almost $1b for Shenandoah, which they are two thirds or more of the way through with first oil due Q2 2025. They need to raise $1.2b to get Sea Lions FID over the line, for which I wouldn’t be surprised if a last minute partner appears taking 20% as happened with Shenandoah.

So why would they even contemplate taking out or absorbing RKH at this time. Ok, maybe once FID and funding is done and Shenandoah starts pumping, but there are too many variables at the moment. If they try to offer 30p a share now, then whist they are negotiating OM award drops and we get €65m; what if Shenandoah is hit my further delays; what if the FPSO can’t be released on schedule and SL is delayed by 6 to 12 months. So why would Navitas even contemplate taking them out now, better to pay more for a sure things, as it the reason we are stuck at 15p, investors waiting for the sure thing, yes they pay more, but they are not sat holding the baby for months / years/ a decade!

As for Delek coming in, just can’t see that either, Gideon left Delek behind, why would he bring them in to take a stake or take out RKH? 🤔

Interesting debate all the same.

LTT

Why didn’t they take them out when Harbour walked, that would have been the time, RKH were on their knees with OM in limbo, running out of cash, Harbour leaving, it would have been the perfect timing.

I just think it’s FIG, they wouldn’t want 100% ownership by a foreign entity. There may be some offers come in later down the road, and we will have to see what happens with that, but a 100% takeover, can’t see it happening anytime soon, FIG have enough on their plate sorting FDP, EIS and signing off on FID, why would Navitas throw a spanner in the works at such a later stage! It would delay their plans for FID 2024 and first oil 2026 which they have said many times is the plan.

However, stranger things have happened!

LTT

Yes Chess, it’s been backwards and forwards between Navitas and FIG sense Oct/Nov last year, Sam said at the AGM it was ready all bar shouting, so the FDP is just a matter of sign off and they are looking at a meeting in the 3rd Q.

“Drafts of both the Field Development Plan and Environmental Impact Statement for a project to develop the Northern Area of the Sea Lion Field have been received by the Government and are being reviewed. Consideration of both documents by Executive Council is expected in the third quarter of 2024."

So maybe back end of Sept 🤔

LTT

Thanks a lot Mogger,

It all seems to be coming together, EIS and more importantly the FDP is in final draft. So from October it could all start kicking off!

Onwards and upwards 😊

LTT

They are for sure JEBR, they keep hitting new highs and are up over 2% again today.

Has anyone been to any of the Navitas presentations down in the Falklands? it would be good to hear anything about what’s been said or what questions/issues, if any, have been raised.

LTT

Hi Thenorseman,

The Argos acreage would be interesting, not sure if Navitas or RKH would farm in are let them take the rig and pay for it themselves, then get it back a few months later. It would make sense, but taking a stake, I’m not so sure. Isobel, Elaine etc would be more than enough to keep them busy near and mid term to appraise and submit a FDP & EIS, without wild catting on Argos acreage. Let someone else take the hit or miss and then take a share of it if the well comes in.

Borders is another matter entirely due to being a pretty big condensate discovery on its own. It’s just the rig costs to get the spec needed to appraise/develop, it will cost a few bob and the development presentation Borders did was a bit light on details of rig costs. Too many moving parts to say it would cost X amount, hence why Borders are sat waiting for Navitas to raise funds and FID, then they will rise on the back of that and start banging the drum. IMHO

LTT

Like you numbers Much, but then I would as I’m a glass half full kinda person. Isobel into production might not be this decade, however we could get that excitement of the drill again sooner than that.

My thinking goes as follows, with Navitas planning for 5 wells to first oil, then a further 6, what do they do with the rig afterwards? If they stuck to their original plan of drilling the next 12 wells 3 or 4 years later, then they would send it on its merry way. However, it was mentioned that they might drill 1 to 2 years later and that might mean they keep the rig and head down to Isobel as she would need appraisal, so why not do it then? Cash would be rolling in from Shenandoah AND Sea Lion at this point, it would make a lot of sense. They may even share a rig with JHI to drill Argos old acreage if they can get some cash together, again it makes sense when a rig is on site.

Sam said there was enough drilling, exploration and appraisals to keep and rig drilling for many years. Once the cash is rolling, nay cascading in, why not!

LTT

But MD, that was for exploration drilling and appraisal, it makes a lot of sense to share a rig, but when Navitas/RKH are planning 1.5 to 2+ years of development drilling, as AA says, why pay over the odds for a rig that is over spec’d? Particularly when you are counting the pennies to get to FID.

Maybe JHI might find some cash to take some of the rigs time after drilling the 11 wells at 52 days per well, it would make sense to drilling Argos’s old acreage, but Borders I think might just be a step too far. IMHO

LTT

The Bluewhale II, seems overspec’d to me, however as Xmtman point out, their are many things to take into consideration, standby rate, transit rate, drilling day rate. Plus how long it’s been sat idle and if it has any contracts being negotiated.

With Navitas talking of drilling 11 wells then another 12 1 to 2 years later rather than 3 to 4, they may decide to keep the rig and go and appraise Isobel in between. If so they would be looking at a rig hire of 3 or 4 years or more. Who wouldn’t want that for a hot stacked idle rig with no forward contracts. Better to accept and initial lower day rate to get the ball rolling, then once first oil is hit, have a clause in the contract that allows the rate to increase ever 6 months until it’s in line with industry rates for such a high spec rig.

AND if they so wish, down the line they could negotiate a good deal with Borders any pop an exploration well and the RKH lookalike prospect nearby.

Lots of moving part still, but I am pretty confident Navitas and Ian Ramsey are all over this.

LTT

MD, I like your thinking but cannot imagine Navitas paying over the odds on a day rate for possibly 2 years of drilling so Borders can drill a couple of appraisals. I mean we are talking $50k-$100k more per day for a rig that can drill both the North Falklands shallow basin and the much deeper South Basin AND Borders have to start the work of doing an FDP and an EIS and then do a fund raise to get everything up and running. No Navitas have more than enough on with Sea Lion and the surrounding prospects. Also Borders is running out of cash and will need a fund raise sooner rather than later!

However, if Navitas and RKH were to farm-in or even take out Borders, possible IF OM's 65m Euros come in, FID and Funding are announced thus giving RKH's market cap a shot in the arm/kick up the ar5e, maybe they could do a cash and share offer! Then I can see it happing, but either way, it's a couple of years away, 2027 at the earliest IMHO. Of course I would like it to be sooner as I have a few Borders, but we will just have to see. Fingers crossed either way.

LTT

Just been looking at the fleet status link Mogger put out there and noticed the Ocean Endeavor currently with Shell and then at the end of the year is heading for BOP certification with no booking afterwards. 🤔

I am sure I read somewhere, posted by someone in the industry that any rig heading down to the Falklands would need its paperwork up to date, plus if they are keeping it down there a couple of years, it would pretty stupid to send it down and have its certification run out!

I could be way off the mark, with the Chinese rigs being mentioned, but I thought China was trying to get in with Argentina, not risk going onto their naughty list!

Either way, there seems to be quite a few semi’s that would meet our spec coming available on the timeline we need, far more than FPSO’s so it’s all looking good IMHO.

Interesting that no one in the Falklands has been on here, mentioning anything about being in a Navitas presentation down there. I would have liked to hear how Ian Ramsey going on with his presentation style.

LTT

No problem whackford, I think we are all a little surprised at how Navitas are galloping along. After the AGM I was thinking FID/Funding would be pushed back into Q2 2025, and I was happy to accept than, then Navitas puts out an Investors Presentation reaffirming FID 2024 and first oil late 2026!

So either Navitas are setting themselves up for a fall OR they are way, way down the road with funding and the FPSO, RIG, long lead items, etc. As was said in the presentation, “ London based team ready to execute a detailed project plan upon closing of funding”.

That doesn’t sound to me like someone is going to be slow out of the starters blocks.

LTT

Hi whack ford,

I believe the FDP was sent to FIG in Oct/November last year and has been backwards and forwards between Navitas and FIG. Sam said at the AGM, that the FDP was nearly there bar shouting, and once they have accepted the FDP, then it means they can start the funding as the Banks/Investors will be satisfied that FIG have approved the FDP and thus they will be happy to lend/invest. But not before.

LTT