Member Info for longtermthinker

I cannot help feeling there will be a buyout, Borders have been treading water for years, any farm-in would take the lions share and leave us with a small percentage and maybe a loan for appraisal/development cost to be paid back at first oil. Otherwise an offer for the whole thing.

A offer as a rig share with Navitas/RKH is a no go as they are getting an anchored rig for the shallow north falklands basin waters and RKH having lookie likey prospects near Darwin are focusing on Sea Lion for now. Maybe when they have first oil on SL and cash coming in, they may offer to share a rig with Borders, but not before I’m afraid.

LTT

One of the bits of info I found interesting was that Gideon has a TV/Movie production company called SIPUR.

So I can already visualize the trailer to for the bond raise, imagine a helicopter shot flying low over the sea, then a deep voiceover with dramatic music kicks in, “ Millions of years in the making, Sea Lion Phase 1, The next big thing!!!!!”

Fades to black. 🤣

LTT

Hi Mogger, Norse,

the EIS is really worth reading, I like this bit among many and I am only on page 170!

"However, the main advantage of the 55,000 bopd capacity FPSO will be reduced capital exposure by leasing a redeployed FPSO, and the ability to subsequently develop other field areas to the south."

Isobel anyone. It makes a lot of sense, get the project up and running with the Aoka, with its upgraded 55k per day, then when they have appraised Isobel and are ready to go, swap out the Aoka for a bigger FPSO (maybe the Munin after pulling it out of mothballs and upgrading it) and the heads south and Aoka starts producing from Isobel, then we have 85k production from Sea Lion and 55k from Isobel. Ok it's jumping the gun a little, but is seems Navitas are thinking not just near term but thinking well ahead.

Cannot believe we are till hovering around 15p to be honest.

LTT

Valeura, is very interesting indeed. It’s unlikely they could afford to go it alone and raise cash to appraise and develop Darwin, but with Dr. Guest joining the company, it has to bode well and will carry more weight to get a partner onboard.

There could be some interesting ways for Borders to get this over the line, bonds, private investor consortium and a couple of new partners taking a stake.

Exciting times are ahead.

LTT

At time of writing this, Navitas is at an all time high and is up 570% since they came to be. That is pretty impressive by anyone’s standards, however the best is yet to come. From Q2 2025 they will be earning a lot of cash from Shenandoah, just look at their May 2023 presentation (2022). The bar charts showing the increase in production and profits are eye watering. Ok they might not be as high now with production starting in 2025 Q2 rather than the 2024 Q4, but even so, Navitas could fund Sea Lion themselves if they so wished!

To my mind, and this is just personal opinion I have no connections or whispers in my ear, I’d hazard a guess that we will get the election out of the way, and when the Summer holidays are over, Navitas will do an investor’s presentation from Sept onwards to show where they are at. They will have a clearing picture of when Shenandoah will come online and show investors how the “Next big thing” is oven ready and anyone who wants in should get in on the bond issue they are preparing. This could possibly coincide with us getting the annulment result (but of course wouldn’t be dependent on) and being in a great position to pay our way.

It’s very exciting times ahead.

LTT

I think that is why they are talking about a detachable turret, so they can swap out the FPSO they start with for a bigger one, but maybe they could use that one for Isobel if she was ready. Navitas have said up to 3 FPSO’s could be working the basin with 200k barrels per day eventually. All that won’t be coming out of Sea Lion. IMHO

LTT

Ralph2010,

It’s the same old, same old from Argentina, they talk of a softening stance, but then when there are riots on the streets and social unrest they bang the old “Malvinas” drum because it’s a way to unite the people against a common enemy to take their minds off what their government is doing to them!

But you are right they have no claim, the Falkland Islanders have spoken and UKGov has to abide by that result, which also means not interfering with their plans for an oil industry, even if the UK is barreling towards net zero and the consequences be damned!

LTT

Aim, why bring up a comment from PJ, he hasn’t been around for years 🤔 so how can they tar current board members with the same brush.

Also haven’t you read the disclaimer,

“The value of investments, and any income from them, can fall as well as rise so you could get back less than you invest.”

Well RKH has had the fall, so maybe we are in for a rise!

LTT

TCM,

In all honesty the statement by Stephen didn’t surprise me at all. In every conversation I have had with Sam over the years, even when he has been super upbeat, he has always added the caveat that some suppliers /lenders won’t play ball due to the risks of upsetting Argentina and ending up on their naughty list!

This has always been the norm and I thought everyone who has invested in RKH would have been aware of that risks. That’s why I am happy Navitas are involved as they couldn’t give a monkeys what sanctions or blacks lists, lawsuits Argentina throw at them.

LTT

Flipper, Labour wouldn’t be foolish enough to mess with the Falklands, they will keep the status quo for sure. They cannot say no to anything FIG want to do, they could advise them not so, they could certainly delay them, but they cannot flatly refuse.

Plus with oil revenues coming in, they can pay for their own defense, and could possibly back date some payments also. What government would want that, getting paid to keep and strengthen a foothold close to Antarctica 🤔

LTT

Hope your right Dysmons, we could do with a boost all round for the Falklands oilers. But 1m shares is only 27K. I know it’s a lot of cash to drop in as a punt, but when we get 10m volume a day, then I might think something is in the offing. Folk cannot help themselves if they know something is coming, look at the conservative member close to the PM putting a £100 bet on a July election. What a muppet, probably thought it would be easy money and nobody would sniff around such a small bet, but he was found out LOL.

So once there is anything concrete coming, volume will be up for sure.

LTT

“The wider issue is if RKH and FIG can't get on over a minor point how will the project proceed at all?“

But haven’t you also said in the past that it’s out of RKH hands, Navitas are in the driving seat? So what does it matter if things are a little frosty between RKH and FIG!

But I don’t believe it for one minute, Sam and RKH have clung on to the dream of Falklands producing oil, despite PMO spinning plates and then failing miserably, getting taken over by Harbour whom walked away, then keeping Navitas on the hook and getting them signed up. Is anything FIG should be thankful to RKH as without them they would be in big trouble financially over the next couple of decades.

AIM, you can spin it anyway that you want, but baring a black swan event, Navitas are forging ahead. IMHO

LTT

😂🤣😂 Mogger, very funny indeed.

LTT

Hi Matt,

I am hoping Sam keeps a tight grip on the reins until first oil, just so he can say, "I did it, I held onto the dream through thick and thin, many fell by the wayside, but I finally I go this thing over the line!", and also so we can see the share price reflect some of that achievement.

If everything goes to plan, we have just 2.5 years to wait, but as you say, it's most likely there will be some offers put to the board long before then. 50p per share once funding is in the bag, FID is announced and a rig is heading down for development drilling with an FPSO in dry docks for refit would be highly tempting indeed. I'm not sure if their are any big shareholders currently who could force a sale through at 50p, and I would hope our board would in such a situation call an EGM and talk about the offer and say yes you can have jam today, but wait until first oil and you get cream, jam and the cake with a cherry on top! 80k barrels per day, selling at $75 per barrel is $2bn per year, now of course you have the cost of production, corporation tax, royalties, development costs and pay back of loans, etc, but still, once that is all paid off we would be making a lot of cash that would the 50p a share offer look like an insult. But as the saying goes, a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush!

To my mind, if Navitas do not bring a partner in pre/post FID then we are more likely to get taken out prior to first oil. My only hope is it would be an all share offer so I could still ride the wave to first oil and beyond. If it was a cash offer, then I would, if forced, take the cash and then buy into the purchasers company so I still have some skin in the game! Oh, but wouldn't that be a nice position to be in though, wondering whether to take 50p a share!

LTT

Yes Auson,

You are totally right, there are many pitfalls with Pemex in the driving seat and Mexico on the whole. I’m not sure what the tax/royalty cut is either, but it cannot be as lucrative at the Falklands IMHO.

So we are much better off with Navitas and the Falklands than Harbour are with Pemex and Mexico. I am just wondering when the penny will drop here and we get someone sniffing around with a takeover in mind. The current share price is ridiculous considering the potential, but that is where we are until we get funding and FID over the line. Then and only then will we have a target on our backs, as anyone with cash could snap us up for 50p a share might very well try!

£325m for 35% of a 1bn barrel + basin, with boots about to hit the ground (once funding and FID sorted), it would be cheap as chips!

LTT

How big Sea Lion is,

“ Zama is one of the world's largest shallow water discoveries in the last 20 years and was the first discovery made by an international consortium in Mexico in 2017. With estimated gross resources of 600 to 800 MMboe, Zama is expected to make a significant contribution to Mexico's energy supply over the next 25 years, creating activity that will support the growth of the country's energy sector and generate a large number of jobs in the coming years.

The field is expected to produce up to 180,000 bopd at its peak, which corresponds to around 10% of Mexico's current total oil production.”

Got the above from Harbours BB posted by Komoko, I posted it just to remind everyone why we are here, we have a world class field in the making, which could as Navitas say, produce up to 200k per day with 3 FPSO’s.

Not sure if those numbers include Isobel, but we could possibly double the size of Sea Lion with Isobel coming online during the next 5 years or so. Let’s face it, once Shenandoah is pumping Q2 2025 and then Sea Lion is up and running late 2026/early 2027 Navitas will be awash with cash and with nearby tie-ins and Isobel on the doorstep they would be crazy no to drill baby, drill!

LTT

I watched the link last night and I was thinking, "Oh gosh, more waiting till Q3!", then realised Q3 starts at the end of the month! LOL

All seems to be moving along nicely. Lets get the election out of the way, get Labour in, North Sea EPL tax goes up, tax breaks on drilling gets reduced/cut, no new licenses given, then we will see E&P companies falling over themselves to get out of dodge! Some might even start sniffing around RKH and Borders.

Of course it will be very sad for the North Sea and all those employed there, hopefully Labour will come to their senses and see that a healthy NS helps with the energy transition, which is going to take decades, not years. If nothing else there will be an opportunity for Navitas and RKH to hire skilled workers and get hold of equipment as NS projects get cancelled.

On awards and upwards.

LTT

Oscar,

So what your saying is, even OM gets sign off, the annulment goes in our favour and we have €80m in the bank, which is roughly 10p per share, then the value of 35% of Sea Lion is 3p per share?

Maybe you are right, if between now and the end of 2024 we get no news or updates from Navitas such as funding and FID, then I could imagine in such a vacuum the share price stagnating.

With the EIS heading for public consultation around the 17th of June, further news must surely follow. But then we need to get the election out of the way, then it will be summer holidays, and we know how the markets are over the summer, then it’s all down hill to the end of 2024 🤔

Maybe you ARE right, nothing to see here till 2025!!!!! But as boots hit the ground in Q2 2025 and FID is signed off I think your 15p prediction should be blown out of the water.

Have good weekend

LTT

Well with the EIS coming around the 17th of June, it should free up FIG to sign off on OM. Great news, I love it when a plan comes together.

Even Godders must admit Navitas are on fire, pushing ahead without any song and dance, just head down and grafting.

LTT

Hi SpaceHoppa,

I think you are right, odds on that they sign off by the end of the month, after all , Sam was down there recently to move them along, it would be a wasted journey if they don’t sign off. It will be great news once OM is sorted, €15m in the bank with possible €65m more by years end. Won’t it be nice if the annulment goes in our favour by October and then Navitas announce the closing of funding and FID at the same time!!! One can but dream.

LTT