Member Info for longtermthinker

Hi Chess,

On the Munin spec sheet it says, "Double hull Aframax size suitable for North Sea", it also says, "Crude Separation Plant suitable for production of waxy crude at high temperature" which if I remember correctly is the type of oil we have in the Falklands. However it doesn't have any info on water injection, seawater treatment and gas treatment which I think we would need capacity for that, but it has ample space on deck, so maybe this could be added on as part of the repurposing when it's converted for Sea Lion production.

All speculation of course and could be way off the mark, but it is interesting that there is potential of 2 FPSO's without a lot of searching, so at least one of these must be on the short list and if they are seriously planning first oil in 2026/27 they will need to get it booked sooner rather than later and start working up the development plan so they can work out budgets and go after the funding.

I can't help feeling that after years of a poor partner just going through the motions, when things kick off, they will move thick and fast.

LTT

Ches, could the Munin be on the shortlist too? It’s another Bluewater FPSO, rated at 60k per day but has been exceeding 90k and is ready for redeployment. Also meets UK regs.

It would give a bit more wiggle room to increase production rates. Sam at the AGM said there was more than one, less than five being looked at and the final look of the SL development would be based on the FPSO production rates.

That being the case it’s stands to reason that the kingpin will be a LOI on an FPSO, then everything else can slot into place.

Regards LTT

Is it not just a formality that the Falklands request to drill and HMG agree? As has been said, the UK cannot overrule FIG, so if they want this to happen, and all the environmental boxes are ticket, why wouldn't HMG say yes?

LTT

Happy,

they will just have to knuckle down and get FID done in the first half of 2024 then!

;-)

Things seem to be moving at a pace with Navitas and also with RKH with these two new appointments. We have 4 months and a half until 2024, a lot can happen in that time. We should hear sooner rather than later that the Stay has been lifted and some news on where RKH are going after assets. Also the FPSO and RIG letters of intent, IF Navitas are serious about first oil 2026/27 they will have to get a move on with that, then there is the funding news.

I suppose what we need to ask ourselves is, is Gideon the type of chap who goes down to the Falklands and tells them it's going to happen face to face, then misses his own deadline by miles? We all know Tony of PMO days would do that, but the jury is out on Gideon.

Interesting times are ahead that's for sure.

LTT

Tommo1985,

Your totally right, if Navitas announce a letter of intent or funds are being raised in the form of a bond or the like, RKH share price should react to the opposite and therefore the warrants should all but be exercised before 31st Dec 2023. Then if a fund raise is on the cards we may have an option, either we sell all or part of the award once the annulment has gone in our favor,

as it will have a higher value, or raise funds (from hopefully a share price of 25p+) to go after the full, by that time €300m+ including interest.

As someone said though, fighting for €300m that might take another 4 years would be a sideshow compared to the $$$$$$ we are making with 35% of production in 2026/27, even with the paying back of the loans.

Either way it would be nice for shareholders to have a choice in the matter.

LTT

Hi Header,

I was at the AGM and in the Q&A session he mention the “More than one, less than five” comment about FPSO, so they will have been on the case for some time. Also of note is the final development will depend on the FPSO, e.g. if they secure a 50k barrels per day then that will go into the development plan, if it’s a 100k per day then that is what it will look like.

Regards

LTT

Well Sam said at the AGM, Navitas were in discussions with more than one and less than five FPOS’s, so imagine a LOI could drop anytime if they want to be on course for 2026/27!

If you look at Navitas current project in the Gulf they had secured funds long before FID so I think we will hear about LOI for the FPSO, rig and finance long before FID. IMHO

LTT

Hi Paul, I’d like to think they would put it to bed quite promptly after the hearing as they would have had all the info, there is no further course of action after that, what possible reason would they have to keep the outcome secret for a further 6-12months. If they did, ROI could accuse the tribunal of not concluding the annulment thus racking up €1.5m per month in further interest against them! I wouldn’t put it past them even if they have lost.

My feeling is they will give the result before the end of March to draw a line under things, then RKH, Harbour permitting sell the award, all or part, even keeping only 30% would be over €90m by the time interest is taken into account, plus the buyer will keep racking it up €1.5m per month. Nice little earner!

LTT

So am I right in thinking this has nothing to do with the STAY, which we should hear about that in the coming weeks/months, this is about RKH's lawyers opposing the annulment request in preparation for the tribunals decision in early January 2024.

LTT

All the more reason that Navitas and RKH need to be forging ahead. Oil and gas are going to be around for some time IMHO, they cannot just DUMP it with a click of their fingers, even if they wanted to.

News on the STAY should drop anytime, even with the go slow that the tribunal are on and particularly with the Summer hols of August looming, they have sped up a little in their communications since the award was announced, so next couple of weeks we should know.

I wonder how Navitas are doing on the rig and FPSO front? At the AGM Sam said Navitas where looking at a few, if I remember correctly he said more that one, less that five. If they are planning for first oil in 2026, then they will have to sort a LOI for both soon! The rig will be needed for at least 2 year to drill the 18 or so wells (11 pre-first oil, 7 after with the FPSO on site and oil pumping), so you can hardly walk up to a rig company and say, "I need a rig to start a week on Thursday that we will need for 2, maybe 2.5 year if we include the MOB time, got anything available?"

Can't recall the timing of the last drilling campaign but it must be 6 to 12 months prior drilling to sign it up. So if we work backwards from mid 2026 for first oil; 16 months of drilling to get the 11 wells in give or take, 2 months MOB to get on site depending on where the rig is coming from. This means you are looking at the rig tootling down there for early 2025 which would be Summer time in the Falkland's. Wishful thinking would say they would want it there for the start of Spring to get the best window of opportunity, so kick off could be Oct/Nov 2024!

As I say, wishful thinking and a lot can happen between now and then. Think someone mentioned if Shenandoah had setbacks there it would have a knock on effect to Sealion. But to be honest, I cannot see that, maybe I'm being naive or stupid, but if Sealion was totally dependant on Shenandoah, why would Gideon have gone down to the Falklands and said 2026 for first oil, surely he would have mentioned 2027/28 as the prime time as the oil income from Shenandoah would pay for Sealion's development.

By the way, if anyone is interested Ian Ramsay has a page on the Navitas website, probably been there a while but it's the first time I have seen it.

LTT

Don’t think people realise the ICSID is not just about oil companies taking States to court, it works both ways, a Green energy company investing in Italy for example, planning to build wind farms off the coast then they pull the plug for whatever reason, they could be sued by Italy for walking away.

There will be a lack of big investment projects going forward because companies will be thinking twice about investing in the EU if they pull out of ETC.

LTT

Totally agree. Navitas are completely different from PMO who kept promising this and promising that, then the timeline would get knocked back once again.

I cannot imagine all these new hires over the past year, would be giving up successful and stable careers to come to Navitas if they were just going through the motions! Ian Ramsey would feel a right numpty moving across and bringing a few further Murphy bods with him if Nav were just having a laugh!

I think baring some black swan event, it is now just a matter of when, not if Sea Lion starts pumping oil in the Falkland’s.

I just need to be able to hold on to as many of my shares as possible until then! Oh and Sam et All need to not sell out or get taken out prior to that time.

LTT

For what it’s worth I think we should hear something this week or next by the lasted. The committee surely cannot impose a deadline of 30 days plus 10 days, then take 1 month or so to respond, particularly with something as important as to lift or keep in place the Stay.

Odds on they will lift it, show the ROI they cannot stick two fingers up to the ICSID by not engaging in any discussion with RKH and making a mockery of the ICSID ruling without consequences.

LTT

Hi have to say I am a little surprised at the lethargy in the share price considering we are on the cusp of the Stay being lifted and RKH and Lawyers being let off the leash!

I know that RKH will have to ring fence assets in an international bank and won't be able to get their hands on anything until the end of proceedings in 1stQ 2024 but news could drop anytime from now up until just before the AGM. Then the lawyers will hopefully have a long list of easy pickings that will cause the most embarrassment to ROI. Then it's all downhill to the annulment decision, which let's face it, they are unlikely to reverse the 3 judges unanimous decision to pay up in RKH favour. It would be highly embarrassing for the ISCD and more importantly open a can of worms on past and future decisions .

Can't believe it's so quiet here, but I suppose we just have to wait for Navitas to announce their new partner coming on board pre FID and some news on funding.

Right back to sleep until the AGM.

LTT

I think if Navitas were taking a stake in Borders volume would be up rather than the 2 trades for less than 20k shares!

I can't help feel we are clutching at straws. I would be more than happy see a big announcement that Navitas are on board, or Delek are taking a stake, but just cannot see it at the moment. Navitas are too busy with the development in the Gulf of Mexico and working up to FID for Sea Lion, so why would they look at Borders that would need a lot of work so get to FID. With Sea Lion there is a plan, the horse work has been done over many years by PMO, Navitas are just fine tuning.

Of course once Sea Lion is signed off and drilling starts, there will be more interest, as there will be a footprint down in the Falkands to get going, but even so Borders would need a higher spec'd rig than is needed for development drilling on Sea Lion and that cost to mobilise it to the Falklands could be Borders downfall until RKH is earning from Sea Lion, then they might share a rig to drill it's look a like prospect in the Southern Basin.

Don't get me wrong I would love Borders to drill next year/get bought out for 20p/get cash to fast track , but hope doesn't mean it's going to happen anytime soon IMHO. Even so I keep my fingers crossed.

LTT

Thanks for the heads up markednmbr1, I have a few warrants in my HSBC account that I need to exercise, might be worth asking for them sooner rather than later. Wouldn’t want to leave it till Oct or Nov and then they turn around and say I can’t have then. Even as of today they are worth almost a 50% gain.

LTT

It's like someone posted on this board or another BB, we plough on down this path to get to net zero, but we end up importing expensive energy, food, products that are made/grown elsewhere, where they are using coal, gas and oil because they are not restricted to the "Net Zero" policies! We are just passing our carbon footprint on to someone else.

We have the NS should use it to keep the lights on while we transition, but knee jerk reactions don't do anyone any favours.

LTT

Agree in the EPL, they might put in a floor of some kind, but then Labour will get in next year and take in away and put in place higher taxes as part of their “transition” plan to renewables. How can any company invest in the UK O&G industry, or the energy industry as a whole without consistency. Why would anyone invest in a 10 or 15 project with a short sighted government!

I hope Harbour continue with their plan to branch out overseas, wind down their NS assets and remember to switch the lights off when they leave!

LTT

XKR2022,

part 2 of the update said the following;

"2: that Rockhopper shall, within 30 days of the date of the decision, apprise the Committee of arrangements agreed with Italy for the mitigation of the risk of non-recoupment or that negotiations have failed and, in the latter event, propose concrete arrangements in accordance with the decision for the mitigation of the risk of non-recoupment. Italy may then briefly comment on Rockhopper's proposal within 10 days, constructively highlighting any areas of disagreement between the Parties.

The provisional stay remains in force during this time, pending further order from the Committee."

And then more recently from the Final Results RNS on the 30th May, RKH said,

"Italy has refused to comply with the Panels instructions. Rockhopper intends to continue to work in good faith to resolve the issues raised regarding non-recoupment and has submitted to the Panel its proposal to mitigate this risk. The provisional stay remains in force during this time, pending further orders from the Committee."

So basically ROI has stuff two fingers up to the ICSID. RKH as they say are continueing in good faith to mitigate the risk of them going for assets/cash, pocketing the lot, RKH going on a spending spree ;-) THEN the annulment goes in ROI favour (unlikely considering the recent refusal to comply) and ROI cannot get their money back!

I cannot believe RKH should still be made to ring fence the assets to allow ROI some sort of protection. They should lift the Stay; they should allow RKH lawyers to go after assets and cash and keep it, then any annulment award in ROI favor, make them come after it through the courts and drag it out for 5 years!

I realise that would be a foolish and expensive attitude to take, but it really pi55es me off that the ROI have not engaged with RKH despite the ICSID ruling. They have dragged this on and on and are still possibly hoping that RKH will go bust before they have to pay anything.

That aside, the Committee should be reasonably timing with a reply as they put a time limit of 40days in total, it would be very lax on their part if they were to allow a further couple of weeks or months to pass before updating RKH on how they can proceed. IMHO

LTT

I wonder what the deal will be? Free carry for 75% ? Cash and free carry? With a MC of just £20m I think many would bite anyones hand off who offered £40m or £50m, me included.

I know on paper we are worth far more, but it all comes down to what someone is willing to pay. Argos is sat right next to RKH who are heading to FID, and they have been almost nothing and shareholders will be locked in for who knows how long once the deal is done.

Fingers crossed we get a good deal that everyone can be happy with, and not a buyout by some Canadian consortium wanting to take us private for peanuts!

LTT