Member Info for longtermthinker

Sorry Anth72,

I just checked back through your posts and seen your 70/30 split and a share price prediction. In all fairness if everything aligned I could see that happening 👍

A farm out on those terms with a free carry on an exploration well could easily get us to 12p. Fingers crossed.

LTT

Anth72,

Why such aggression, I’m only sharing some thoughts, scenarios, concerns. I sincerely hope you are right and a big blow out RNS comes and says what a partner will do and what we can keep, but their has to be some reality to it.

How long does it take a board to get a partner, they either want in, or they don’t. I still feel Borders are waiting on Navitas to FID or maybe the prospective partner is waiting. Maybe they don’t want to sign up to anything and then Navitas, like Harbour, get cold feet and walk away. 🤔

I hope we get some value out of Borders I really do, but the days of getting $250m for 60% of an oil field have long gone. What do you see as a take out price or a farm-in percentage Anth, seriously I would be interested to know?

KR

LTT

Tincan,

The thing that concerns me though is that FIG are not set up to support two rigs never mind two developments running side by side! Once Navitas have the rig on its way, it will be drilling for least 18 months to 2 years continuously working on 50 days per production well. So either we get in there before or we have to wait until Navitas releases the rig, and that is of course if the rig is of the spec that can drill in our deeper water acreage. If not, then we would have to bring our own before or after, and even from South Africa, there would be some hefty mob costs.

You are right though, this being all electric by 2030/35 is pie in the sky. The US is going to power ahead with growth using all it's resources while we head back to the stone age, but worse, as we won't be able to rub two sticks together to make fire as there is a smokeless ban! LOL

LTT

Hi Tincan,

yes, I'd prefer to hold on too, but then we might not get that option if the Canadian pulls his weight with his large shareholding! The ratio I presume would have to take into consideration the Borders share price and RKH at the time any deal is stuck, but I imagine at the time of funding/partner/FID (if they came to pass together), RKH share price might be say 50p, giving a MC of £340. So if Borders had a MC at that point of £50m on that news, then I could see them offering 4p per share in cash then another 4p in RKH shares to give us some skin in the game, so 1 new RKH share for say 20 or 30 Borders. Not sure if my math is right there, but you get my drift.

But who knows what will happen, who'd have thought the resource upgrade would have got RKH to 21p, so your guess is as good as mine as to where both RKH and Borders share prices end up on FID with funding and a possible partner in the bag!

I wouldn't want it, but I could live with 4p per share and some RKH shares to benefit from first oil and a takeover of RKH down the line. It would be better than waiting till 2028/29 to appraise and explore, if we are lucky.

The window of opportunity is getting narrower and narrower to do a deal and get a rig to drill/appraise Borders acreage, if it doesn't happen in 2025 we are in for a long wait. IMHO.

KR LTT

Morning everyone,

Interesting bit of chat about a buyout price. Of course I sincerely hope it doesn’t come to that, but it’s good to be aware of various scenario. I think at this moment 12p a share might seem pie in the sky, but if Navitas get a partner and funding in the bag, we would see Borders up on that news for sure, maybe 4-5p.

Then once FID is done and boots are on the ground in the Falklands we might see 7-8p+ on the prospect of a rig share or a farm-in. So at that point, someone who wants to buy out the company would maybe have to offer a 40-50% premium, so 12p+ may be possible. 🤔

It all depends on if the board and our Canadian friend what’s to cash out or stay in, or do a deal to keep a percentage in the games. If anything I’d prefer them to do a farm out deal around 4-5p as if we got to 7-8p and a predator comes in offering 10p+, people might be more tempted to cash in rather than wait a few years for a drill and a few more for development!

Still feel the best case scenario is a buyout with cash and shares, maybe 4p cash and shares in RKH to keep us in the games. Then those who want out can sell RKH. Just IMHO, and who knows how it will go in the end.

LTT

We went for 14p to 21p on a push back on FID to mid 2025, first oil a year later than planned earmarked for late 2027, and a 16% resource upgrade, along with talk about a 3 phase development. If anything we should have gone down or just stayed the same.

I take solace in the fact that there were so many folk waiting in the wings for news that took the share price northward. If this is want happened on the above news, what will it be like when they announce a partner, OM, FID, Rig!

For me, OM may take us up a little, maybe from here we could break 20p even 22p, but the real news will be the partner. if there is a big hitter partner with development experience coming on board, we will be at 50p in a blink as all other news will be just formality and background noise. A partner with expertise, money and experience coming into the mix would be amazing the reaction to that cannot be underestimated. Then funding and FID will start the dominos falling, one after the other, FPSO, boots on the ground, rig booked, etc, etc,etc.

Maybe we are in for a quiet spell now until New Year, but 2025 should be a blowout year with all the ducks lining up and setting off on their journey to first oil. A bit later than planned, but still coming. Fingers crossed.

LTT

Gosh, you are braver than me MD, if would be too afraid to go all in on Borders. Of course if they actually got a partner and a rig heading down there next year you would make a killing for sure, but the risk is that someone comes along and buys out Borders before any of their potential is reached 🤔

Don’t get me wrong, I’m with you that Borders could rise more percentage wise on OM, a partner and FID. Just what will sustain it, only a rig share to the Falklands as two rigs is improbable for the infrastructure to support, and at what cost to Borders if not a complete takeover. Good luck all the same, I hope it pays off for you.

KR LTT

Sorry for the off topic. Although RKH and Borders future are interwoven.

Oh, C not a G LOL, no wonder I couldn’t find it. I have been educated, Thanks a lot.

LTT

But McCloughry,

There is no “Grozier Place” in London or on the Falklands , google maps comes up with only places in the US 🤔

LTT

Hi Bonneville, I looked up The Globe Grozier Place, but it only came up with The Globe Tavern in London, so I am a bit confused, I thought the Navitas team might have been drinking there!

It was all a bit cryptic anyway, people drinking in a bar, oily overalls, one legged barman and Pete the parrot! LOL

It will no doubt all come out in the wash and there will be a lot more story times going on from Borgo and the like before first oil.

KR LTT

Bonneville, so are you talking about the Globe in the Falklands?

KR LTT

Oh, right, I was thinking it was The Globe Tavern in London, where Ian Ramsey and crew might head for a pint after work and entertain American visitors!

Just shows how someone can get the wrong ed of the stick! LOL I'll get my coat!

;-)

LTT

MD, are you sure the Globe is closed, I just checked their website and it says they are open at 11am 🤔

Are we talking about the same Globe? It’s all Jack-an-ory anyway. But the Navitas have to have a drink somewhere🤔 might be worth propping up the bar in a few pubs near their office ! LOL .

LTT

Cammbo,

LOL, I think £5 might be a little optimistic, I think from memory, OM 65m Euros if we win was worth about 7p per share, so if you think that the recent resource upgrade and forward plan have added around 6p to take us up to around 20p, then you could imagine that OM if the annulment goes in our favour could take us up to 27p a share, but you could also say, we have added 6p so, another 1-2p on top would mean we are steady at 21-22p.

For course this in no way represents the true potential of this share, that will only come with time and as we pass milestones such as Funding; a partner; FID; the rig on its way; development wells being drilled; FPSO arriving and then first oil. Even at that point, there will be the adding of production wells to get up to 55k per day, then there will be the drilling of Isobel and the testing and appraising there.

It all depends when you want to get off the merry-go-round!

LTT

Thanks Gus0,

that makes a lot of sense.

LTT

OK, that sounds a good idea, maybe Navitas will take on the same rig, the shared costs are not to be dismissed, but how will Borders pay for the rig? Surely they have to look at giving up a percentage for a couple of drills otherwise we would be diluted into oblivion. So either Navitas take a stake, a partner comes in and pays or we get bought out.

Would you agree that those are our options? I’d prefer Navitas and the new partner take a percentage of Darwin in return for a couple of wells and some carry on development but we will just have to wait and see.

LTT

Buffet, that also makes a lot of sense, particularly when you consider that Navitas gets a team in to do the drilling and development, Navitas handle the cash side of things.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Murphy took 30-35% from Navitas, took over as operator and then took Team Ramsey back into the fold as part of the deal. After all, if Murphy took over, what use is Team Ramsey to Navitas 🤔

The more I think about it, the more sense it makes. Roll on OM hopefully soon and funding in Q1, then we are ready for the off.

KR LTT

Hi Gus,

I hope you are right, still think we would have to share a rig to get the ball rolling, but with Murphys possibly coming onboard as a partner to Navitas and RKH, they might be the company the board are talking with about a deal! It would be amazing if Murphy farmed-in to Darwin/acreage, it really could take the share-price north on such an announcement.

Fingers crossed

LTT

Great find Happy,

yes it totally does sound like a perfect fit for us AND for Borders maybe! I have to agree now, that Murphys has to be the front runner to partner Navitas and RKH. If I was a betting man, I might put a few bob on it, but then again, isn't that what I'm doing holding RKH and Borders shares!

It cannot be a coincidence that Murphys team jumped ship to work on Sea Lion and get it FID ready, they must be going to sign up to taking a stake from Navitas and maybe even Farm-in/take out Borders in the process. The Falklands North and South basins are ripe for the taking and IF Murphys are taking a stake, they will want to tie up the North and South IMHO. I wonder if that is why the Canadian has taken a hefty stake in Borders and the board only raise enough to last them a year!

Interesting times are coming, I can't wait.

LTT

Hi MD,

but that was when the Canadian was buying, seems that is done with now and we are just waiting. I cannot help feeling that Borders are just waiting for news from RKH/Navitas such as funding, OM, partner and FID, they are waiting for some momentum to then either do a deal, because they can say, "Look there are other players committing" or it's so they can sign off on a deal.

Until that time, nothing to see here unfortunately I'm sorry to say. Once Navitas fire the starters pistol, then it will be game on, and with a bit of luck, we will be dragged along with them.

Good luck to us all.

LTT