Member Info for longtermthinker

We need to get 10m+ to really move this upward, it's still only pocket money from PI, what we need is II's to start accumulating or a wealthy individual to start taking a stake like the Canadian did.

Still 5p isn't to be sniffed at considering where we were back end of November. :-)

LTT

2m+ shares traded before 10am, now if we really want to move up, we need 10m+

LTT

Morning MD,

still as some way to go to catch up to get more % wise than RKH, however, I'm inclined to agree and the reason I am here, if the stars align we could be 10p+ in a blink.

LTT

Morning Gus0,

Have to say I’m surprised this is heading higher on no news, but then maybe it’s just following in RKH shadow or just playing catch, after all it’s about time! 🤔

Could be, as you say, a few RKH share holders thinking the Rock has run out of steam and are moving some cash into Borders are there is something in the offing.

LTT

Hi MD,

I do hope you are right, but cannot see how it could happen, unless of course RKH share prices crashes down due to a delay on Shenandoah that pushes back FID to late 2025/early 2026.

Another scenario would see someone farming into Borders with a plan to take 75% for 2 exploration wells to firm up Darwin west and a deeper prospect and a loan for their share of pre-FID and post-FID covering 100% for costs. That way proving up 1B barrels plus and truly putting Borders on the map with a clear path to first oil.

So to get a 2 to 1 shares, Borders would have to get to 13p+

Interesting MD, I wonder what you have heard!

LTT

Considering the low volume. It seems like we have settled in a new normal of 34p-36p pending news. It also seemslike nobody what's to buy in before news/update/OM result and nobody wants to be out!

I am quite happy with this situation, it bodes well for the start up for Shenandoah and the OM news dropping, whichever comes first. OM, whether is comes in at 65m Euros or gets thrown out and we claim on the insurance for the 33m Euros, it draws a line under our funding needs to first oil. It will be like the old BMW Ad, "More that the sum of its parts!". The OM result will be worth far more than the actual cash in the bank (not sure what will be reflected in the share price), but it gives us stability going forward, might even pay for a revamped Website which is sorely needed, but that's another matter!

With OM finally out of the way, Sam and the board can give 100% focus to Sea Lion. I would hope that Navitas, once Shenandoah comes online, starts the ball rolling on funding/partner/FID if those are going to happen by mid 2025.

Once FID is in the bag and the FPSO ends it's contract with PRAX and starts the 180 days contract wind down ready to head off for a refit, I cannot help wonder where the share price will be and how it will react! Suppose it all depends on what happens prior/on FID. If a partner comes in, then the share price will be much higher than if Navitas goes it alone, but either way, after the initial news which way will the share price go?

Logic and sentiment says, once FID comes in, the share price should drop, as many folk will want to sell a percentage of their holding thinking that there will be a news vacuum. Why sit on the shares for 2.5 years in the run up to first oil which only the nuts and bolts being done, all that is expected with such a large offshore development! But then we could do a Navitas, 5 times share price increase over the 2.5 years up to first oil! Which one will it be?

Oh, what a dilemma to have!

KR LTT

Just read the headline on oil voice;

“Suriname’s Economy Forecast To Grow 55% In 2028 With First Oil“

Wonder what the Falklands growth forecast will be when Navitas are poised for first oil. If nothing else it will make for some good press coverage.

LTT

Thanks Mogger, almost heading to Barbados, but hopefully it cruises on by, no time to stop off for a Rum or Mauby!

Plus Beacon need to keep on track!

"On December 13, 2024 the Shenandoah floating production system (“Shenandoah FPS”) sailed away from HD Hyundai Heavy Industries’ shipyard in Ulsan, South Korea and is currently in transit to the US Gulf of Mexico. The Shenandoah FPS is scheduled to arrive at Kiewit Offshore Services’ fabrication yard in Ingleside, TX in the middle of February for limited final preparations and regulatory inspections to be followed by wet tow and offshore installation at the Shenandoah Walker Ridge project site. The 25,000 metric ton Shenandoah FPS will be placed into service with a nameplate capacity of 120,000 bopd. Mooring pile installation has been completed with infield pipelay activities to be performed in the first quarter of 2025. The 102-mile, 18-inch SYNC oil export pipeline installation and associated upgrades to the CHOPS GB 72 platform have been successfully completed. Rig operations are underway for the completion of the second of four Phase 1 producing wells, with rig flowback operations to be conducted in the first quarter of 2025, followed by completion operations on the final two Phase 1 producing wells. First oil for Shenandoah remains on track for the second quarter of 2025."

LTT

Hope your right MD, but volume says otherwise, will need to have a load of 250k shares going through to lift the share price, I know LSE is delayed, so maybe you are seeing things I am not.

Still cannot imagine anything big is going to happen here prior to Navitas announcing funding or FID, but would love to be proved wrong. Been looking at the Borders website and it's very slick now with loads of info, puts RKH website to shame.

LTT

However, Gideon has said he wants to remain operator going forward.

I had imagined them bringing in a partner like Murphy, and transfer operator ship to them at some point in the future, but with Gideon saying he wants to keep his hands on the wheel, it means that Navitas stays in control.

It does make sense, why get a dog and then let someone else bark! Navitas have hired a great team in Ian Ramsey and ex-Cairn bods, they will want to take this all the way, not do the ground work and then give it over to someone else! Also it allows Navitas to go at their own pace.

I think Gideon has learned a lesson having a large percentage of Shenandoah, but having to dance to the operators tune. If Beacon want to develop and tie in further resources, Navitas have to stump up the cash, similarly if Beacon don't want to forge ahead with something, there is nothing Navitas can do about it.

So, I think Navitas will take on a partner, possibly Murphy although it could be someone who just puts cash in, such as HEQ Deepwater, or someone similar.

Interestingly Beacon have Murphy on board a development in the Gulf of America ;-)

"Beacon estimates a total of 75 MMBOE of P50 resources for the Zephyrus field. Beacon is joined by Houston Energy, HEQ II, Red Willow Offshore, Westlawn GOM, and Murphy Exploration & Production in the Zephyrus development."

Seems a lot or partners for just 75 MMBOE, and for that reason, I think Navitas will bring someone else in, maybe 2 partners. That way they can keep momentum with developing Phase2 and appraise Isobel, sharing the cost and the risks. IMHO.

LTT

Thank you as always Mogger.

Will have a read through.

Have to agree with Borders, nothing happening there unless it's a buy-out I'm afraid. They are way, way down the curve to get development going this side of 2030. Even with a farm-in they have missed the boat on drilling an exploration or two before 2028 IMHO. No, the best result now for Borders is a take-over.

LTT

Marunam2,

I have a question for you and anyone else's thoughts are appreciated.

As we know, Navitas are providing two loans, the first pre-FID which runs at 8% and then the post-FID which is interest free. It's to be paid back at first oil via 85% of production I believe. I'm not sure what the pre-FID costs will run up to, but I can imagine it might be 35% of say $50m, so $17.5m running at 8% for the next 2.5 years of so. I imagine ones first oil starts the higher interest will get knocked off in the first payments so the rest will be interest free until paid back. This is for our percentage of costs to get to first oil, we will be on the hook for 35% of costs after that as they drill further wells, add to production, get a bigger FPSO down the line, etc.

So I am wondering what folks thoughts are on RKH just going with the status quo and paying back from 85% of revenue over the following 3 or 4 years after first oil.

OR

Getting some RBL so they can pay off Navitas in one go and thus keep all the oil revenue to fund a dividend/further exploration/development of Isobel. As surely Navitas will not want to rest on their laurels and RKH will have to get the cash from somewhere to pay their share going forward!

I know it might be a moot point as RKH will possibly no be around after first oil or maybe before. Will Sam hang on to till the bitter end, to at least first oil, a kind of life milestone and then relinquish the reins!

Food for thought, but we are currently if a much better position than we have EVER been.

LTT

Sea Lion, Isobel and maybe Darwin if he decides to sew up the whole shooting match! RKH have lookalike prospect near to Darwin, and as has been said many times, Darwin will no be in isolation, there will be far more around as with Sea Lion, some won’t come off but others will, and they are BIG in the South.

I still think either Navitas or someone else is waiting for FID on Sea Lion to pull the trigger on Darwin. IMHO

We will just have to wait and see, but the wait shouldn’t be too much longer.

LTT

And to think there were many folk saying Navitas would have difficulty raising funds!

Gideon, three years running person of the year, top 5 companies and also raising Navitas’ market value 5 fold in 2 and a half years. This is before Shenandoah comes on stream !

As you say Space, baring a black swan event FID is almost a certainty, then I wonder if his Midas touch will rub off on RKH. With roughly 2.5 years from FID to first oil, a 5 fold increase from here would suit me very well indeed! 🤔👍😊

LTT

And don’t forget this bit;

“ Five companies were awarded 5 stars top rating, which have achieved a positive yield in each of the past three years: El Al, Bet Shemesh, Teva, Navitas Petroleum and TASE, as compared to only one company awarded the 5-star top rating in 2023.“

We are very lucky to have Navitas as our partner, despite the lack for news, they appear to be forging ahead behind the scenes from the snippets posted here and there.

The FPO is arriving in 2 or 3 weeks, it will have a quick check over and then it will be towed to site. I have no idea how long it takes to connect up, commission and test, but I should imagine Beacon will want to get things up and safely running a.s.a.p. so the cask cow can start being milked. I don’t think Navitas will complain about that.

So when they say Shenandoah should hit first oil 2Q it might just be earlier than we think 🤔

LTT

Hope you are right MD, I checked out the Borders website and they have done an amazing job updating it.

I I cannot help wonder what is driving us up, is it just that all the weaker hands are gone and the buying is forcing us up? Or are RKH shareholders, getting in on the action?

Or is it a bit like what Jock said, contractors, people in the know, giving a heads up to friends and family with comments like, "You should fill up the car before the Winter is over, end of March at the latest!"

;-)

After all, there must be a lot of contractors doing stuff behind the scenes who are up for a gamble. Lets face it, if i was if the frame to relocate to the Falklands for 12 months starting in July, as I builder or site foreman; if I hadn't been told to keep quite or signed an NDA, I wouldn't be shy about it.

"LTT, how's work, what are you up to?"

"Well, I am heading done the Falklands in July, they are starting an oil industry out there don't you know, barrels of the just stuff waiting to be got out!"

KR LTT

Well MD, it seems we are heading higher, you were right, I'm glad to be wrong.

;-)

LTT

Morning MD,

Think we need a few dozen 200k+ share trades to get over the hump that is 5p. Personally I think we are in limbo until Navitas starts going after funding/announce a partner/FPSO contract with Prax is terminated/Navitas FID.

I think any partner is waiting for confirmation that Navitas are really going to open up the oil industry in the Falklands, at such I time, if we haven’t got a deal sewn up, we will be beating suitors off with a stick! 😉

LTT

Morning Jock,

I was thinking the same, as FBS is part of a bigger group how could they collapse/go under!🤔

Sure their profits could collapse, they could lose their management team and maybe lose some contracts, but disappearing all together seems unlikely. As you say, nothing in the media about this.

Suppose the worst case scenario is they have to get an external team of contractors in to get everything back on track, it will cost them in the short term, but they will just have to take it on the chin, as Navitas will need them now and going forward.

LTT

Cheers Rookie, not saying I want that to happen, but looking at things from every angle and trying to put on the shoes of our Canadian friend, would he want double or treble his money sooner or would he wait a few years for a 10 bagger!

LTT