Member Info for longtermthinker

Oscar,

I don’t think it will come to that. As was pointed out, the ICSID have a remit to give a result 120 days after last submission. Which was worked out to be roughly this week or next.

If for some reason that doesn't happen then I believe Sam could get a loan against the insurance payout. It wouldn’t be easy or ideal, but could be done. Failing that then a fund raise possibly would be on the cards, but at 38p, dilution would be minimal.

But saying all the above, we still have time, Navitas seem to be waiting till Shenandoah comes online, that will be April onwards at the earliest, then they will have to put out feelers into the bond market, so that could easily take us into May/June, with FID coming in July/August, maybe even September.

Have to be honest, I would have liked FID to happen in June, it would have been great to attend the AGM with FID in the bag with a firm route to first oil. But as we know, Navitas march to their own drums.

LTT

Thanks Nick,

All we need now is news of when the checks have been done, and when it’s getting wet towed out to Shenandoah. It can’t be long now as the FPS has been sat there over 2 weeks 🤔

LTT

Maybe Space,

But as we know, Navitas don’t exactly shout it from the rooftops, they just knuckle down and get on with the job. Once the press are all over this, who knows what spikes up and down, and what games will be played! 🤔

Navitas are saying FID mid 2025 , first oil late 2027. If they are on schedule with that timeline, it’s anyone’s guess as to where the share price will end up.

Have a good weekend all. We are heading into the last month of Q1. Navitas expect first oil in Q2. Then it should all start to get interesting.🤨

LTT

I read the other day that Talos upped its stake in Monument to 29%, so that implies that Repsol sold them their last remaining percentage. So the partners are now Beacon, Navitas and Talos. I wonder why Repsol sold their Gulf stake, are they wanting to concentrate elsewhere.

BP have also changed tack also, see quote below.

“The firm said it plans to increase its production to between 2.3 million and 2.5 million barrels of oil per day by 2030, with hopes of "major" oil and gas projects starting by the end of 2027.”

It seems there is a wake-up call, how can an oil and gas companies keep up the dividends that pay into people pensions with renewables? 🤔

We could be part of a perfect storm of mid caps, even majors, scrambling for new plays, but not the type that need 3D and wild cats, with a 10 year timeline, but ones that have short lead times to first oil. With RKH the waiting has been done, now it’s time to develop.

LTT

Either way it’s a win win, if it goes in our favor we get €65m if not we claim on insurance and get €31m. We just need this over with so we can concentrate on the real prize.

LTT

But isn’t that how Mr Market works, it’s always right until it realises it got it totally wrong.

Everyone follows the herd, scrambling for a few points here and there, looking for patterns, sense and reason where there is none. A famous line from a statistician, when comparing the traders of a large investment institution, was, “A dart throwing monkey can outperform the majority!” The company actually didn’t disagree, although a few of their top traders took umbrage. There were individuals that were the exception, but they were few and far between.

We are in RKH ahead of the herd, because there is the perception that RKH has a track record of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. That there is a chance something could go wrong, but we are still further down the road than we have ever been, maybe we are even further down it than we imagine, which is actually a scary thought.

The next 6-12 months will make or break us, which is why we are at 38p instead of £1+ IMHO.

Once funding and a partner are in the bag, and FID is signed. I see a similar trajectory to Navitas. Good luck to us all.

LTT

Welcome to the board hereandnow, you might have just hit it just right as it’s underpinned now at 5p with plenty of upside. In fact I’d tentatively say, it’s a buy all the way up to 10p which is the warrants price.

Can’t imagine the big boys taking up the shares at a 3% discount with a warrant one of every two shares bought at 100% premium! No, there must be something in the offing, either a farm-in or a complete take out at well over 10p IMHO.

Not so sure I agree with your heavy, viscous oil statement for RKH. It gets a premium to Brent and is easily managed with heated pipelines, Navitas and RKH have everything in hand.

Either way, what is good for RKH is good for Borders and vice versa.

LTT

Space, once OM drops and we have FID I can see us at 60-70p easily, if there is a partner like Murphy or Ithaca, then I can see even higher! Mrs Space will be a very Happy Hopper indeed!

;-)

LTT

Just be aware, us retail investors will not be privy to the warrants. Them's for the boys!

Why give a warrant on an 18month timeline that is only worth buying if the share price is about 10p, a 100% gain from today?

My feeling, and I could be wrong, is that they are aware they might get taken out, with an offer of 15p-25p+ in the next 18months and they want an extra bit of cake with cream and a cherry on top. IMHO

LTT

Hi JPDM,

welcome to the Borders Club. Afraid we are laughed at little by the RKH crowd ;-) , but my feeling is this will come good. As you say, no major discount to the current share price, so the incentive must be the warrants, but unlike RKH where the warrants where issued at 9p, when RKH share price was flitting between 7p-8p, Borders has locked them out until there is a 100% gain from here!

Anyone would thing there was something in the offing over the next 12-18months that will at least double the share price? A deal getting signed are a takeover at 15p-20p+

Interesting times.

LTT

The ship has dropped off the FPS, it will be sat in the harbour awaiting final checks and sign off, then it will be towed out into the gulf. The ship in the other hand is anchored awaiting its next commission IMHO.

LTT

Yes, I see it as a positive also, raising at just shy of 5p a share is much better than 2.5p or under 2p which it what has happened previously. Also the warrants locked in at 10p a share, I’d be happy to sell mine at 10p a share but maybe they see this going higher on a deal 🤔 Interesting indeed. Let’s see how the share price reacts to this news.

LTT

I am no chart person, I wouldn't have a clue about upward/downward trends, triangles, resistance and such like. But I have noticed we are still heading up on low-ish volume. Could this be due to weaker holders or folk who had warrants selling, and now they are out, or have sold keeping the rest for news, the price is having to go up to entice further selling? The higher is goes, the more tightly hang people on and fewer and fewer sellers take the bid!

Thus we are going higher on low volume, with people holding on tighter for news?

Or am I way off the mark. LOL

LTT

Here we are about to close up another 5%+ and there has been very little media attention, or have I just missed the headlines saying, "Falklands Islands to reap riches", "Falkland Islanders to be come richer that Saudi Oil Barrons", "Riches beyond the dreams of avarice are headed for Falklands!", etc.

As Neilius says, "the last time RKH was at this level was 2018 and before that 2012", I presume that was on the way up and on the way back down. That is crazy when you actually think about it.

Still is all bodes well, because if this is where the share price is with very little substance, what is it going to achieve on FID; FPSO going for refit; Rig mobilised and then drilling development wells and finally first oil.

Hhhhmmmmh, why does that line spring back to mind, "Riches beyond the dreams of avarice!"

LTT

Good afternoon Gus,

I cannot understand it either. Love it or hate it, RKH and Borders are tied together. I firmly believe that once RKH FID then a partner will pounce on Borders, it makes sense as once FID is done, then the idea of having chopper support, rough necks and everything else oil related gradually being on the ground in the Falklands just gives confidence to a partner.

I know many believe that Borders with a partner can go it alone, but I just don't see it, economies of scale start to kick in once boots are on the ground. Even support vessels can be sorted if they are already in the Falklands, where as Borders and Partner would have to bring everything down. Sharing just makes practical and more importantly at this time, financial sense. IMHO

So Like you, I cannot understand why Borders is not on the same path as RKH.

KR LTT

Oomph! Was that a big buy this morning 250k share at 9.15am for 40.95p? Maybe the article has caused a fluffy of buying since as a few quite large trades are going through at 42p

I am still amazed we have a new norm in the 37-41p range! Maybe I am so used to RKH being hit back down. I keeping thinking it must happen again, but with Shenandoah to start production in the coming month, OM about to drop, plus all the news that could start to flow with regards to funding, FID, rig contract, FPSO contract, etc, etc. Maybe I will just watch on as RKH hits new highs!

LTT

Seems like they might be fishing for shares on the bid, a lot of A trades going through a 40p, seems like it has been taken there to scoop up a load of shares. 40p is a good round number to put in a trailing stop!

Stills it’s good to have a clear out at higher prices, those 9p warrants will have made a hefty return for anyone selling now. Also, we are heading closer to the end of the financial year, so there will be a bit of churn leading up to it to book some gains and loses before the next financial year starts.

LTT

I am just trying to track the Shenandoah FPS but cannot see it on the ship tracker site.

So my question is, will it be going through checks and surveys to make sure it’s sea worthy, then it will get a “Call sign” prior to its wet tow out to Shenandoah?

Thanks in advance

LTT

I think the Hercules would be suitable for the North, South basins and Isobel also, although that is in Norway.

I was thinking that although both these rigs could work in the North Sea, it would be a little overkill as the rigs are rated for much deeper water. Maybe they would have to accept a lower rig rate in the NS. So it makes sense to have them working elsewhere.

Maybe Navitas might do a deal where they pay a slightly higher rig rate for drilling in the North Falklands basin on a 2 or 3 year hire, and then pay a higher rate when they take it into deeper water to drill in the Southern basin! This is of course if they plan to farm-in/take over Borders!

The bottom line is that we will need a rig for 2 to 4 years (if they continue with development drilling back to back after first oil). That has to be worth something to the supplier, rather than doing a couple of wells here, then a break and then a couple of wells there. Continuous long term hire has to be the way to go, particularly with the North Sea in the state it is in, no new licenses, the EPL still in place.

LTT

Yes it’s a positive Tin, just need Borders to have a partner on the hook as even with a share of mob costs, drilling 3 wells will cost $300m + possibly $350m to cover any overruns, unforeseen issues! Borders would have to give up a hefty percentage to be carried on the 3 wells. Of course if they came in, then raising funds for development wouldn’t be an issue, it just depends what the farm-in wants, a hefty percentage or a complete take out ?🤔 Also depends if there are more than one interested party!

LTT