Member Info for longtermthinker

I have to take a reality pill Happy and agree with you, also even if BP or similar wanted to come onboard, they would have to do due diligence and that could take some time, causing a holdup.

Murphy could be interesting as surely they would trust Ian Ramsey’s work as he was their employee not that long ago! 🤔 Another option is a Blackstone vehicle/investment that just takes a percentage and pays their way.

As you say a mid sized US company would be good, as long at Trump didn’t put tariffs on the importing of Falklands oil 🤣 What a fiasco!!!!!!!!

LTT

It’s the stuff dreams are made of, if BP really came onboard, WOW 🤯

🤔 They don’t seem to have anything happening much in South America and Argentina!

Still think the main contender is Murphy, their team jumped ship to get their hands on Sea Lion, maybe they are going to join the party.

Ok, let’s give up 10% for $150m cash so Murphy and BP can both join the party taking 15% & 25% respectively 😂 The share re-rates to £2 just for starters! 😳😉

LTT

"BP will work to deliver 10 major upstream projects by 2027, and 25-27 projects by 2030, says chief executive Murray Auchincloss"

From an Upstream article, can't read the whole thing as I don't have a subscription, the rest of the article could talk about all the locations for investment, but it's nice to dream! Cannot see BP coming onboard as would they want to play 2nd fiddle to Navitas as operator, but then if their was a tie-up with the South and BP took the lead there, it might be possible!

BP could get Darwin up and running easily with great returns, plus if the plays are as big as they say, and they of course come in, it would be a new Basin to explore with billions of barrels, RKH's acreage would come into play too. Plus the North basin will have 3B barrels + once Isobel is drilled and other plays.

OK, so BP is a long shot, but this about turn on the "Evil's of oil", being realistic about the future transition and secure returns for investors will be the start of other players following suit, big and small. A partner for Navitas is all but nailed on.

Anyone have short list of who it might be, whilst we and waiting?

LTT

Mick,

I think you are right, Navitas going into a bond issue/fund raise from a position of strength after delivering first oil be the sensible move. If they were to count their chickens and start the ball rolling now, then there is a connection issue, flow line issue that delays first oil buy a few further months, they would look pretty silly, even though it's Beacons baby. No, it would be much better to allow Beacon to crack on and deliver first oil and then have everything in place.

As we know, Navitas don't sit on their laurels, they will be lining up all the dominos ready for that first shove and then we will be away IMHO.

I see the vessels Mogger sent links to are waiting for something, the Sea Lion tug arrived yesterday and have been heading back and fourth around something quite large in that dock, ferrying supplies, crew? Wish we had some webcam feeds of the dock LOL, but that is getting a bit Big Brother!

LTT

Is it a sign!

There is a Tug moored up in the approximate area where the FPS was dropped off called “Sea Lion” 🫣 Would be useful for a wet tow to Shenandoah 🤔.

All we need now it for Trump to knock this silly, tit for tat trade war on the head and get the US economy firing on all cylinders.

LTT

Thanks Mogger,

Most appreciated, I was thinking it was about time there was some movement, a month of sitting about, when time is money! It’s not like it arrived unannounced, it left on the new schedule and arrived a couple of days early.

Surely Beacon will announce when it leaves the dock!

LTT

No Problem thenorseman, I thought it might be a long shot, keep your powder dry until they are drilling Isobel eh!

;-)

Hopefully Beacon have everything in hand, it's just they are very poor with communication, but then, I suppose they don't need to be. Last I read on their website was that everything was in hand for first oil Q2, and a lot of work had been done in readiness, so fingers crossed someone updates soon that the FPS checks have been done and it's headed out.

LTT

Hi Topdrive,

that's an interesting question, particularly when you consider that Navitas got everything from Harbour/PMO for very little, or should I say they got 65% from RKH for an 8% loan pre-FID and a 0% loan for 70% not covered by 3rd party debt (effectively from memory, RKH have to stump up 30%, hence it was worked out roughly to be between $35m-$55m maybe a bit more now that first oil costs have increased to $1.4b). So all being considered Navitas didn't pay out much for the $1.5b discovery; appraisal campaign; work done on the EIS and feed!

However, Navitas have worked their socks off getting Team Ramsey, sorting long lead items, securing an FPSO and fast tracking feed on it; redoing the resource estimates proving Sea Lion is massive; getting EIS and the FDP signed off, etc, etc, etc. Would Navitas allow someone in at cost for say 30%, which would mean their share to first oil would be $420m!

Would Navitas be happy to just share those costs with partner whom then would not only get 30% of Sea Lion, but 30% of the whole shooting match, including Isobel down the line? Maybe 5 years ago in lock down, that's all you could hope for, when PMO were taken over and Harbour came on boarding then jumped overboard on us! But now, with the likes of BP changing tac as well as others, looking for new opportunities, could Navitas ask a partner for an extra 50% for the privilege? So the partner pays $630m for 30%, which would mean that RKH 35% would be valued as around $240m for starters.

But then who would have $630m for farm-in to an oven ready development that is chomping at the bit to hear the starters gun. Big players like BP and Shell could do it easy, but would they risk going into Argentines bad books. The likes of Capricorn and Tullow are shadows of their former selves, with market caps less than ours, where could they get that kind of money from, they have enough on their plates!

Either way, going to be an interesting 3-6 months and I am pretty sure we will all be surprised with how things will turn out.

LTT

No idea whether RKH would have to give up 5% to entice a partner, but it could be possible, particularly if OM doesn't drop and the partner is lined up and the funding is ready to go. Afraid I cannot see Navitas saying to Sam, "No worries matey, we'll stand you the ONLY bit of cash you had to secure until OM drops, along with the loans we are offering you at 8% pre-FID and 0% post-FID!". No, I cannot see that happening, hence the get out clause would be to give up 5% to a partner for say $100m, that way it secures our future in the game.

I know Sam said he didn't intend to give up a percentage, but if it means we survive to first oil and have cash to have a pop at Isobel without dilution now, it would be a small price to pay, considering that Sea Lion is now 900m barrels plus and we can go straight on to phase 2 & 3 back to back, which IMHO is the way to go. Just hope they can drill Isobel in between to see if it's bigger than Sea Lion! Or maybe drill Isobel first, get a couple of appraisals in so Ian and team can start work on the next, next big thing.

Plus if a partner comes in and they not only pay their share, but pay some cash up front, that puts a real value on RKH's 35-30%. We should re-rate in a blink. So let's imagine partner comes in and takes 25% off Navitas and 5% off RKH, so the split is Nav 40%, Partner 30%, RKH 30%. The partner would be on the hook for $420m to get to first oil. With a conservative $350m in vendor finance and maybe an oil trader securing some further production for for $100m, Navitas and RKH's share would be $530m to raise in a bond issue, very doable IMHO.

But then if OM comes in, Sam might have a bit of leverage to hold on to our full 35%. Also Navitas are planning to be the operator for the first time, so maybe they won't want or need a mid cap player, they might be backed by a Blackstone vehicle after all, with Blackstone getting involved with the Panama Canal, it might be a shorter route to ASIA for the oil! Or they might go with just vendor finance and an oil trader taking a stake, thus running the show more easily. Who knows. The only this we know for sure is to expect the unexpected, after all "Nobody expects the Spanish inquisition"

;-)

LTT

Morning Thenorseman,

If you have the time and you don't mind me asking, with you being in the industry and all, have you any idea of the timeline for a "Final limited checks", and the hooking up of an FPS and the testing on site?

I suppose what I am asking is for a rough timeline so I can get me head around it, if the Shenandoah FPS is wet towed to site from now and it arrives say on the 25th of March, have you any idea on how long it takes to get anchored into position; how many days/weeks it takes to connect everything up, and how long testing takes before they can state "First oil".

I realise this might not be your field of expertise, just it would be good to know to temper expectations. No point getting excited once the FPS arrives on site, thinking they connect a pipe and hey presto! When it actually takes over a month of testing and building up pressure, etc.

Thanks LTT

All the more insensitive to keep those plates spinning! It is quite obscene really, they should have got this done and dusted some time ago!

Thinking Hoppa’s timeline of March/April could be way off. Going by how long they have dragged this out, what’s another 6 to 12 months between lawyers! Still the interest is stacking up, so once it’s ruled in our favor ( fingers crossed), we get the €65m banked. Then once the purchaser takes ROI to court and recovers the full amount, we could be in for a nice €5-€10m bonus when the dust settles. 🤔

Interesting to see we are down on very little volume, it bodes well for when the volume picks up again on news, we should easily make it through 50p on anything substantial.

LTT

It's one month since the Shenandoah FPS arrived at Kiewit Offshore Services’ fabrication yard in Ingleside,

"for limited final preparations and regulatory inspections to be followed by wet tow and offshore installation at the Shenandoah Walker Ridge project site."

So, I'd imagine the FPS could be starting it's wet tow to site any day now. When Beacon and Navitas said first oil at Shenandoah Q2 2025, we presumed first oil would be the back end of Q2, end of June or maybe slip into the beginning of July, but what if despite the delay in the FPS, all the other work has been on point and now they are just waiting for the FPS to sail in and get hooked up. Wouldn't that put a cat among the pigeons if first oil began in April. Navitas announce a partner and funding in May on the back of the euphoria of first oil; mid June they FID and we all turn up at the AGM and it's packed with standing room only!

Just some musings on a sunny Sunday afternoon.

LTT

Ralph, cannot see a Chinese company coming in, not with the way the world is at the moment, plus are they not well in with Argentina 🤔. Also, the statement “Look East” is very vague, where are we looking East from? The Falklands, Houston, Salisbury, Israel? 😂

Basically, it could be anyone from Europe to Japan, although Japan it classed as the Far East. But then the Barman said, “Look East Borgo, look East!” So the use of East twice in the sentence, is a doubling up on EAST, which could imply the FAR EAST, therefore it’s a Japanese company! 😳

Yes, I broke the code! 🤣

What this shows is that you can read anything into Borgo’s cryptic posts. They are a bit of fun and that’s it, don’t bet the house on the outcome as sometimes he is on the money, but sometimes he is not. Obviously Borgo has some insight and maybe even connections, but as with all whispers, sometimes they can be misheard, or the listener can be played by the whisperer to suit their own ends. 🤔

The sun is shining so have a great weekend.

LTT

All this time I thought Borgo was talking about a bar in the Falklands! How disappointing!

LTT

The board have put a stop to the share price decline, with the recent funding, they have put us on a firm footing around 5p going forward. We have actually held up pretty well despite the decline in the markets and the oil price.

When things start to move with RKH and Navitas, this will be a buy all the way up to 10p IMHO, that is of course Borders are still around. I’m still thinking there is a 50/50 chance Borders will get taken out when a partner signs on with RKH and Navitas, but if not, then we will be through 10p in a blink, as a mid weight partner will be getting in for Sea Lion but their eyes will be on the bigger picture, North and South.

LTT

Could be, beats the red on everything else in my portfolio LOL.

LTT

The Aoka Mizu must be about to get its cards for the 180 day run down and sail away. If they start in July, I imagine the Aoka won’t have to be there at the start of fabrication so there is wiggle room, but Navitas will have to fire the starter pistol soon.

As for Prax, with the oil price currently heading below $70 a barrel, with the water cut, they will get to a point where they are making very little, if not losing money per barrel, so they must be ready to start the countdown, maybe before Bluewater does. 🤔

Still it’s a great find, as with Moggers helicopter info, it’s great to see Navitas mentioned by name, rather than “An international oil company has ordered long lead items/is interesting in 2 FPSO’s/is looking at rig contracts!”

LTT

Interesting, just posted today with a potential start date of 1st July. Would imply that Navitas intended to hit the go button in June or as the my say “start consultation sooner, e.g. May”.

Im pretty sure that is just the folk offering the job, giving a carrot to get applications in, but even so a July start could mean mid June for FID! 🤔

Wouldn’t that be great, heading to the AGM with funding and FID done and dusted.

LTT

500k shares costing & £170k+ yesterday afternoon reported today.

Just shows there is an appetite for shares still. An opportunity arose for someone to add to their holding or get in. There will be a lot more opportunities like this going forward, hopefully falling back from higher highs rather than heading down to lower lows. 🤔

Like the cut of your jib Nasty, but to achieve that, we will have to get OM in the bag and some news of funding from Navitas and a signal they are still on track to FID mid 2025 without slippage.

Of course, if Navitas announce a partner coming in, taking 25% for 50% of costs to first oil (then pro-rata afterwards) then all bets are off and we might see a spike up to £1 if it’s a big hitter! 🤔😉

Now if it holds this low until April, I might have to scrimp and save to pop some more in my ISA for 25/26

LTT

Morning Hoppa,

Is Trump just having a laugh! He is creating volatility in the market, anyone would thing he had mates trading the hell out of the market swings! 🤔

Same with the show last week, when have the US done more than a handshake, then head behind closed doors for a chat! No, it seems more like a pincer movement on Zelensky; Vance on one side, Trump on the other and the press poking the bear from the middle! All engineered IHMO. Now they can sign the mineral rights and strong arm through a deal after Zelensky apologized. Crazy.

Still, RKH and Borders held up well and it’s good to hear from Moggers research that FIG are sorting out the chopper cover. Another example of Navitas moving forward to FID despite the drop in oil price and market volatility. All we need now it for OM to drop, we claim either €33m in insurance or pocket the €65m then we are off to the races. Not that we are holding up anything. Navitas are still waiting for Shenandoah to come on line Q2 (which isn’t that far away now) the start the ball rolling on funding IMHO, but also they could be finalising a deal for a partner or two prior to funding as once that’s done, they will have a clearer picture of what funds they actually need. A partner would reduce the bond raise massively.

LTT