Top slice or not top slice……..29 Apr 2025 12:06
…….that is the questions!
Only you can decide, so many variables to take into account, such as how heavily you are invested; what is your average; did you load up with the warrants and you are sat on a hefty gain; are you over weight in RKH; do you need the cash or your just want to be more relaxed by selling some and booking some profit. They are all good reasons to sell/not sell, and I have been thinking about this a lot recently with everything that is going on in the world.
Why stay the course, well maybe you have a high average and your profits are merge; you have a higher average and you need 50p+ to break even; your average is so high, you need Isobel to be drilled to have a chance of getting into profit; you actually put the shares in the bottom drawer and have forgotten about them; Navitas/Partner would have to, “Pry them from your cold dead hands!” or you are not selling one share until first oil/Isobel appraisal!
You might be staying for OM, it could drop at anytime, although as we head into May, that seems more and more unlikely. RKH and the lawyers thought is would be a done deal by January, so all bets are off on that score and I wouldn’t be hanging around for that. Yes, is gives some extra security and would mean no fund raise/dilution to first oil, but it’s hardly going to stick a firecracker under the share price considering the rise since December 2024.
Funding and project Sanction/FID. To my deluded mind, once we get a sniff of funding we will be off to the races, partly because if they are raising funds, then it’s odd’s on favourite (if we already didn’t know) that FID will follow. The media will get behind this and anyone who wasn’t aware of Sea Lion and Falklands Oil, soon would be. I also believe we will get FID/Project sanction at the close of funding with Partners/Oil trader finance announced all at once. Whether it will be a mid cap oiler or some investment vehicle is up for debate, but it will all happen together IMHO. It happened with Shenandoah and if there was any reason to do that again, it would be so Argentina don’t have time to react. Still we have to temper this with the possibility that Navitas might have to push back a little on FID due to delays with Shenandoah; Funding; Partner onboarding; FIG dithering ,etc.
After FID/Project sanction, I sort of expect a bit of a fall back, as Muchaboutmoney says, people set certain abitraty targets such as, “at 50p i’ll sell 10%”, “At FID I’ll sell 50%, then when it drops and can buy them back and keep the change!” etc. Although, if you had done the “Once, it’s doubled from 14p, I’ll sell half”, that would have been a mistake without looking at the broader picture of why and how quickly it doubled. So taking into account what is happening and adjusting ones targets is sensible.
Continued..........
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