Member Info for longtermthinker

" What is that, an FPSO for Ants? How can we expect to them to extract oil, if they can't even fit onto the ship! The FPSO has to be at least.......... 3 times bigger than that!"

LOL

LTT

Marunman2,

“June 1st oil: hopefully a case of under promise - over deliver.”

I’m hoping for 31st of May, otherwise I’m out of pocket by 2 pints!!!!!!!!

Although, I could play the semantics card! 🤔 As Beacon have actually produced oil from the first two wells, flared off the gas and offloaded the produced oil to a tanker that was alongside the Atlas. First oil has been breached!!!!!!!😉☺️

Only joking Space, I will be more than happy to get you a couple of points. Although many a true word is said in jest 🤣🍻

LTT

Well, Flipper, that's as good a reason as any, wish I had the foresight to do that, but I have always got it wrong LOL.

I am sticking and holding until after FID, then we will see from there.

LTT

Hi Bigred7,

I'm probably wrong on this, but if an institution wanted to buy even 25m shares in RKH, they would cause the price to rise, so 100m very roughly 15% of the shares in issue could raise the share price quite a lot. The scenario I have in mind is Navitas announce they are doing a bond issue to FID SL, RKH gets a heads up that they need $50m to put into the kitty. With Navitas wanting to go for bonds, it's implies that FID is a done deal and therefore RKH share price is about 50p.

Sam goes to II's and says, "I can give the shares to the PI's and they would snap my hand off, however if you want in, you can have them for 55p a share, because once Navitas have the cash and FID, this is only going one way!"

That's my thinking anyway.

LTT

I concur, the funding is all but sorted bar the shouting IMHO After all, it is their thing, it isn't going to be an afterthought as it's actually the KingPin. The proof is the recent special meeting to give Navitas' the freedom to make and sign off on deals without having to put it to the Unit holders for a vote every time, 100% in favour of letting Navitas steer the bus until May 2028.

TheCheeseMaster went on and on about funding and the FPSO being the main issues, "It takes years to cut a deal" he would say, but as we have seen, it's a done deal, they are just waiting for FID and the Aoka Mizu will be released for refit. Also, long lead items and tenders have been completed ready for the start button to be pressed. Do we honestly believe, Navitas is going to start scratching their head at this late stage and point the finger, "Gideon, I thought you were sorting the cash!", "But Amit, I thought you had it covered!!!". DOH!

No, it will be in the bag, they are possibly just sorting out the finer details of how much they will need to raise in a bond issue (which let's face it, folk will be chomping at the bit to get onboard now that the winds are changing and not forgetting Navitas' track record), taking into account the vendor finance, oil trader/partner and of course our share.

That is my only slight concern, if Navitas does the numbers and we need $55m in the kitty. Of course we should get a heads up, there would be some notice, but with OM not concluded we will be on the hook. We cannot claim the insurance until the OM result and I cannot see RKH organising a loan against the policy, it would be better and simpler to issue some shares. Maybe they would do it quick and easy, 100m issued to institutions. They might get them to pay a premium, say 55p a share, knowing that once FID is done, they would be able to offload them at a much higher price. Of course I hope it doesn't come to that, but as we move further into May and First Oil on Shenandoah looming, is seems a more likely scenario.

It seems we are sticking around the 45p-48p range waiting for the next bit of news. A nice buy this morning of 125k shares, but cannot understand why folk are selling unless they need the cash with a potentially huge News event looming ever closer, because the news, when it hits will be HUGE!

I suppose it takes all sorts.

LTT

But BrightSpot,

Wouldn’t it be sensible, even advisable to get a partner/partners in prior to FID as Navitas did with Shenandoah? It reduces Navitas’ share of costs and thus the amount they are on the hook for with a bond issue, shares the risk, and allows FIG sign off prior to everything kicking off. 🤔

My thinking now is that an investment vehicle type company backed by a much larger entity will come onboard to the tune of 15/20% a bit like HEQ Deepwater. Not them specifically, but someone similar. This would allow Navitas to have flexibility to do something with Isobel instead of stumping up all the costs on that too.

I just cannot see them leaving Isobel untouched until 2032 after the 60+ wells have been drilling on Sea Lion. Look at Beacon, they haven’t got to first oil on Shenandoah and yet they are cracking on with Monument AND are preparing to sanction Shenandoah South. If Navitas are serious about developing the basin, and I see no reason to doubt it, then doing something with Isobel alongside Sea Lion makes perfect and economic sense.

LTT

Well the Stim Star IV, the well stimulation vessel is heading away from the Deepwater Atlas so things are moving along nicely.

Seems like June is first oil though on Shenandoah 😢 looks like I will owe SpaceHoppa 2 pints at the AGM! However, if Shenandoah gets to first oil in early June and Navitas have the ball rolling on funding with a plan to FID in July/August, 50p will be in the rear view mirror and I will be ok getting the pints in 👍🍻☺️

LTT

Bloo, can’t imagine that scenario playing out, the main reason being that the Falklands is a British Overseas territory and it would also be political suicide for the Labour Party.

LTT

Also, they became operator, they have always been a partner in past, signing the cheques but not in control. They are operator over the entire licence now, not just on Sea Lion, so as an operator they will have to keep moving forward, to the next, next big thing IMHO and this allows them to do so.

I think that would be Isobel first, long before getting involved with JHI. Anyone who has got JHI shares in return for Argos is in for a long, long wait I'm afraid. Borders are more likely to pull a rabbit out for the hat and get someone to drill an appraisal on Darwin before anyone even sniffs around Argos' old acreage. Argos is way down the pecking order, no drill there till at least 2030 or later. IMHO Navitas and RKH have more than enough to do getting Sea Lion to FID/Sanction and first oil to be even thinking about drilling elsewhere.

LTT

"Surging oil production and exports helped Guyana’s economy grow by 43.6% last year, marking the fifth straight year of double-digit GDP growth, which began just as Guyana became an oil producer."

The above is from Oilprice.

I imagine the Falklands will be the same or maybe even triple digit growth once oil starts to flow, as the Falklands has a population of 3.6k compared to Guyana's 800k.

As Mogger kindly posted, the next hurdle has been crossed, this allows Navitas to move, make deals, sign contracts, etc without having to call a special meeting to get sign off, particularly when time sensitive deals or private deals need to be done, but cannot wait for a Special Meeting to be announced; held; voted and then announced 3 to 4 weeks later. Make of that what you will.

LTT

Local councilors Ralph, a lot of them had never worked in industry or on such large projects before, they questioned everything as to not appear stupid. Which brings up back to the old adage,

“Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt.”

However in the end he convinced them and the project was a success.

LTT

I remember my Dad telling be about a huge construction project he worked on in Leeds in the 70’s, he was asked how the prefabricated concrete blocks would be brought to site, to which he replied, by Canal, on boats.

There was quite a bit of debate about the 2-3week transition time and whether it could work, someone even piped up, “ look we can’t be waiting 3 weeks every time we need something!” My Dad has to explain again and again there was no 3 week wait, once the supply line is set up, you reverse engineer when you need the first blocks, and then they arrive on a daily basis after that! Many in the room couldn’t get their heads around it.

Oil from Sea Lion will be the same, once the first tanker is loaded and sets off, the chain will be set up and oil and tankers will flow.

LTT

The similarities are remarkable!

Ok it's not as deep water and they can therefore use a jack-up rather than a semi-sub, but the timeline, the costs, the use if an FPSO producing around 50-60K per day with first oil late 2027 are all practically the same.

As you say, with break even at $40 and it still got FID sorted, it's shows that the current oil price turmoil doesn't play a huge part in decisions, it bodes well for Navitas. I cannot wait to see how funding/partner/vendor finances come together on our project.

If we get OM and first oil on Shenandoah this month then it's game on.

Fingers and toes crossed.

LTT

I have been wondering the same. It would make a lot of sense to sell on the news of FID, but then the trickle of news that comes after such as FPSO signed off, the Right contract, boots on the ground, etc, all could add fuel to the fire.

Also, as you say, bigger investors could come in, looking as Navitas’ share price increase since they FID’d Shenandoah. If I wasn’t invested now, I might think 🤔 “I want a piece of that”. Particularly as FID on Sea Lion will come AFTER Shenandoah first oil. Who knows what Navitas’ unit price will be at that time, but would be an example of what RKH could do over the next 3 years.

LTT

A little update today, the Stim Star IV is alongside the Deepwater Atlas, that is a well stimulation vessel, it has been there more than 24hrs already. I would imagine that is the fourth well completed and is now being stimulated to flow. I could be the 3rd, however seeing as they were well into the 3rd when they had the investor conference in March, I would presume it’s the 4th.

Not sure how long it takes to stimulate a well, but cannot imagine it takes more than a few days/ a week max, but as always I am happy to be educated by those in the know. Have a great Bank Holiday Weekend.

LTT

Either Grumpy is taking 2p, MD is on an about shorting and countering everything positive with a negative spin or Ripley is slicing his bacon, or maybe it’s all three tag teaming it! 🤔

Me thinks they must protest too much as RKH is still holding up quite well, folk are not buying, keeping their powder dry. No one is selling either with possible news coming at any moment.

I wouldn’t want to be short over the weekend as a lot can change to the negative or positive. Have a great bank holiday weekend everyone.

LTT

I believe another poster mentioned this recently, but Beacon and Navitas were planning for Shenandoah during a time of $45-$55 oil prices, then covid hit, but they still continued on their track to sanction the project in August 2021 with oil luckily for them on the up. How did they secure funding, contracts, etc, when oil was on its knees with no end to the lockdowns in the sight? Why didn't they postpone the project when Covid hit, when oil dropped like a stone? Because they are not looking down at their feet, they are looking at the horizon, planning way, way down the line, short term ups and down are meaningless to them.

When they took over from Harbour, Navitas went into discussions with RKH in September 2021, once Harbour announced their exit, then it was signed off December 2021, as you can see, Navitas didn't hang about, and this would be their pattern going forward, as they have said time and time again, "Sea Lion----- The next big thing".

So anyone believing this blip in the oil price, this Trump, Tariff, Turmoil is going to effect this by more than a couple of months it going against the tide, they might make some headway in the near term, but will ultimately they will be swept away. IMHO.

LTT

Well someone must be thanking their lucky stars to get 118k shares at 12.10pm this afternoon. Nice one.

Good luck to anyone who is shorting this or any stock at the moment, strange times at the minute with Trump slapping himself on the back at every opportunity, who knows what will happen next!

The good news is, Navitas have pretty much locked in suppliers, as they say,

"We made progress with the suppliers and have completed all the tenders for the project. We have already signed with some of the suppliers. We are in advanced negotiations with others............ we have greater certainty on cost because they are based on agreements or tenders that have already been awarded."

Also the FPSO will be secured when they FID Sea Lion, so it's good to know they won't need years to get contracts sorted. Bluewater must be chopping at the bit to give the 180 days notice to Prax, maybe Prax is already thinking to throw in the towel with oil prices so low.

Everything is primed for FID on Sea Lion and once the starters pistol is fired, it will be game on. Whether they can make FID happen in June is another matter. I personally would love it to happen in mid/late June, prior to the AGM, just to see the HUGE smile on Sam's face as he meets and greets everyone who attends. However if it is knocked back a little into August or even September, I won't be too upset, as long as it happens that's the main thing. I haven't read on here or anywhere anything that has made me question if FID is going to happen. It's no longer IF, it's WHEN. IMHO

LTT

Caledonia,

"Mooring pile installation has been completed with infield pipelay activities to be performed in the first quarter of 2025. The 102-mile, 18-inch SYNC oil export pipeline installation and associated upgrades to the CHOPS GB 72 platform have been successfully completed. Rig operations are underway for the completion of the second of four Phase 1 producing wells, with rig flowback operations to be conducted in the first quarter of 2025, followed by completion operations on the final two Phase 1 producing wells. First oil for Shenandoah remains on track for the second quarter of 2025."

The above is an extract from the last update Beacon issued on 20th December 2024 saying the FPS was on its way. So from the above I would say the Deepwater Atlas is doing completion operations on the final wells/well or they may be doing the last one. As I mentioned, Navitas in their March Investors Conference Call, added some meat to the merge bones Beacon had thrown to us! They said they were in the midst of completion work on the third well, having done a flow test on the first two, flared off the gas and stored the produced oil an a tanker docked next to the Atlas , that was 1 month ago.

A google search on, "How long does it take to perform a completion on an offshore well", says 1 to 5 weeks, so they could be on with the 4th or still completing the 3rd. We should keep an eye on the Deepwater Atlas as when that moves off site, it will be a signal that completions are finished.

Hope that's helpful.

LTT

I have started a thread for those who are interested and more importantly for those how want to ignore these posts about Shenandoah, as I realise it can get a bit boring and monotonous, thus you can just pass over the thread without reading further.

For those who are interested and see that Shenandoah has to be at first oil before Navitas FID Sea Lion, as stated in their recent investors video, then read on!

Although they did say First Oil was happening in June!

DOH! Looks like I am getting SpaceHoppa two pints at the AGM! LOL

The Seven Seas has just completed a slow and steady parallel run from beside the Deepwater Atlas, back down to where the FPS is presumed to be which I would hypotheses is the Northern Flowline, so that will possibly mean both flow lines will be connected up in the next few days/week. Not sure how long these things take, but they are cracking on and have already done flow tests back to the Deepwater Atlas and produced oil and flared gas. They have even tentatively said the flow it better than expected. Make of that what you will.

LTT