Member Info for longtermthinker

I think we should wait and see what comes out in the wash. We have roughly $20m in the bank, we have approx. $35m from the insurance. That's $55m if a partner comes in, the third we have to fund to first oil could drop to $40m which would leave us with $15m to keep the lights on and pay for HobNobs!

Even if we need say $65m we would only need to raise $30m to keep the wolf from the door. There will be options to how we get that money, so let's not talk about diluting the company by 100m-150m shares issues just yet.

LTT

It was pretty sensible of Sam to get the RNS out with the bad news on the back of the good IMHO, once the dust settles and first oil on Shenandoah is announced we will be back on track.

I am getting a lot of green posts today, suppose they are posting how clever they are LOL, a black swan event has saved their shorts, nothing to be boasting about! Quite a few A trades coming through, someone its going to log in and find their RKH shares have been cleared out, I feel sorry for them. Even Borders has been hit by the news, how does that figure, just shows how the Falklands fortunes are intertwined. Volume is still pretty light considering so i imagine a lot of it is MM's fishing for stops and trailing stops.

Onwards and upwards from here, this is just a little bump on the road, and if you can afford to ride it out, don't panic, if you need the cash, then sell and come back later. Nice one to the person who sold out a big stake a few days ago at a much higher price.

LTT

Well I have to say, I wasn't expecting a complete 180 from a unanimous decision in our favour to loosing the case! I was thinking a partial annulment at the most! I expect the insurers and the purchasers of OM were not expecting it either! Crazy times.

The great news is, Sam got the insurance policy in place, as someone said, it's worth $35m and it reduces our payments on our other Italian assets. We are in a good place thanks to Sam and the board. Of course it is very disappointing, but we are covered and all in all we have come out on top despite the years spent on OM, we have paid the original fees for taking on the case and thanks to the insurance policy are $35m up.

Now that's out of the way we can focus on the bigger prize, bigger by a magnitude! Once we know what our share of costs will be, there may be a little fund raise or an issue of shares to II to make up the shortfall, but the shortfall will possibly be no more than $25 to $35m with cash we have in hand.No a bad place to be in at all IMHO.

LTT

“June 2, 2025 - The ad hoc Committee issues its decision on annulment.”

This to me means that they will have sent the decision to both parties, if not the lawyers would be on the phone! They cannot issue a decision and then keep it a secret!

If the lawyers get it this morning, they will be on the phone this afternoon no doubt if not sooner. As Mogger says, we should expect an RNS today or at the latest tomorrow.

Either way it’s FAB news, resource report comes in and draws a line in value under RKH, and OM is concluded, we either get €31m or €65m and then we are off to the races.

Nice

LTT

Hope everyone is enjoying the sunshine on this beautiful weekend and looking forward to what June will bring as we are on countdown to the AGM.

I am still planning to go, so will give SpaceHoppa a heads up as to which Pub I will be in the evening before the AGM, so I can buy him his well deserved 2 pints! I wonder if we might get OM results sneaked in prior to the AGM, that would be great news, along with First Oil on Shenandoah.

Anyway, news to come possibly on a couple of fronts and here is an update on Shenandoah, the Island Performer, the well stimulation vessel is away, it's about 123nm from the Deepwater Atlas heading North East. The Island Victory is near the FPS doing some interesting moves if you look at the 1 day Past Track on Vesselfinder.com

Seems everything is progressing for first oil there in June. This bodes well for Navitas and RKH.

LTT

Gus, Tincan,

I am feeling the same way also, there has been some stake building and I am pretty sure, if the board said, you can have Jam today or jam and cream tomorrow, even if the majority of us wanted to hold out for the jam and cream, the large holders would swing the vote for a takeover. They would be happy at 20p+. I know it is nowhere near the true value that Borders has and the future potential, but I feel they will want to be out, plus they have their warrants they can cash in once the share price is above 10p. Even so, if it's a major who buys us out, we will have the option of getting cash or maybe shares in the takeover company, (unless it's Navitas) or we can use the proceeds to buy a stake in the buyers company so we are still in the game.

Personally, I still think it might possibly be Navitas and RKH doing a deal after first oil on Shenandoah. With FID coming in maybe Sept/Oct, it gives Navitas time to get some cash in, entice a partner and RKH to get OM in the bank. Then I see a cash and share offer by Navitas and RKH to the tune of 25p+ then Borders get some skin the games on Sea Lion if they so want, but maybe also 15p in cash. Navitas/RKH/Partner then split the enlarged North and the Southern Basin which includes RKH acreage next door, maybe 40%, 30%, 30%.

I wouldn't be happy, as even one well on Darwin would increase the share price massively, but as you say they are "talking to the same companies that we have already talked to at some point". Nobody has bitten the bullet yet.

Maybe if we can just wait it out until Navitas FID Sea Lion (and if they don't want a slice of Borders), we might just have a chance to ride the wave a good bit higher before a take out. Fingers crossed.

LTT

Look I get why people feel the need to respond to Grim and MD, just dropped in to see if there are any insights, but can I can see is a sea of green with folk responding. Can you not see what he/she is doing, they are just here to disrupt the board, baiting anyone who will bite, sending real informative down the thread so anyone looking for info, just gets Grim/MD and replies to their negativity. If they were so negative on the Falklands, why isn't Grim/MD posting on the Borders BB, they have a similar history, if not worse, with nothing happening for 10+ years, waiting for RKH and Navitas to pull the trigger, dilution after dilution. Why isn't Grim focusing on there, spouting the same drivel? Grim/MD doth protest too much, methinks, all the while Navitas and RKH are creeping closer and closer to FID!

If Grim/MD were so inclined and are so incensed with Sam and the boards performance, why not attend the AGM, its on a Friday back end of this month, they could take a day off and travel down there and listen to the AGM, then put forward their grievances directly to Sam and the board, call them out on what they believe they are doing, leading us shareholders along with promises that they don't intend, or as Grim not doubt says, they NEVER intended to fulfil.

They will no doubt make up some excuse such as, I am away; in a meeting; cannot get time off; I know it will fall on deaf ears; frightened that I have made too many enemies on the BB that I might get punched in the face; getting my hair done, etc. But they are just excuses, if they are spending so much time on here, as a keyboard warrior, but unprepared to go to the AGM to speak out face to face, at the one time they an actually look Sam and the board in the eye, then they have nothing of worth to say and truly should be ignored.

LTT

Great to see Borders and RKH mentioned as being intertwined, because they are. What is good for RKH is good for Borders. An FID on Sea Lion will open the flood gates and Borders will no doubt rise on the back of it. Onwards and upwards.

LTT

Thenorseman,

so what you are saying is, once Isobel comes in as big as, if not bigger than Sea Lion, we should double all those numbers and get a Total Unrisked NAV of £5.38!!!!!!!!!!

Tell you what, i'd be happy to take that, very happy! LOL

LTT

Interesting bit about 'farm out", could this be why RKH are commissioning their own report, so they can put a value on 3-5% to put in the kitty with Navitas to get a partner/investment vehicle onboard?

It would make a lot of sense if i'm being honest. Navitas have increase the recoverable massively, got down the costs per barrel thus making Sea Lion profitable at a much lower oil price. So maybe RKH let 3% go for say $200m (more accurate number would be used from the resource report), they still take Navitas' loans, but can pay their share if OM doesn't drop, there is no dilution through a fund raise and they have oodles of cash left over to fund an exploration on Isobel sooner rather than later.

I would be well up for that if it meant a well test was done on Isobel before the start of drilling development wells on Sea Lion. Thus it gives Team Ramsey something to do after Sea Lion starts, they can crack on working up the Next, Next Big thing!

I am still airing towards a Navitas, partner and RKH taking out Borders as part of FID. Once Navitas have cash coming in from Shenandoah, they could take out Borders for $175m or around 20p per share. I cannot imagine Gideon letting Borders go to someone else and then, when they start drilling the Southern Falklands basin it makes the North Basin look like an oil stain on a petrol stations forecourt. I feel he will sew up that loose end as part of a deal, maybe with RKH throwing their Southern Basin acreage into the mix. I know it's years away from development, but Darwin is a huge discovery with massive potential for later down the line. With a couple of large shareholders in Borders, 20p-25p today, rather than waiting for another suitor, might just swing it. All hypothetical of course.

LTT

Hi Ladigue,

sorry I have posted in errors, I was looking at the MarineTraffic site and after double checking (which I should have done first), it seems like it hasn't updated since the 27th of May and is for some reason not showing them together. Sorry about that. I have update my links to view via the VesselFinder.com as it seems a lot more accurate, still seems they are busy, working around the FPS now rather than beside the Deepwater Atlas now.

Everything seems to be on track for a mid/late June first oil.

:-)

LTT

Oscar,

I wouldn't go as far as to say they have kicked the can down the road, they are forging ahead on multiple fronts, the banks, long lead items, FPSO, subsea signed off, rig negotiations. They have pushed FID back a little, but that is understandable due to Shenandoah delays. They are all but there with first oil on Shenandoah, then the Kraken will awake and Navitas will be a totally different beast entirely.

I don't see any big sell off today, already we are creeping back up, long term holders have a tight grip on there shares and see this as just a small bump on the road to FID. Navitas are so different from PMO, there is no comparison.

LTT

Just a little Shenandoah update to add into the mix, the ISLAND PERFORMER and the ISLAND VICTORY have now sailed away, their work is done and the Deepwater Atlas is on it's own, there is just one special craft/tug hanging around where the FPS is situated.

So as BrightSpot has said, seems like the subsea tie back has been completed, Thunderbirds are Go! June next week and we have first oil on Shenandoah and the AGM to look forward to among other things. OM decision would be the cherry on the cake.

LTT

I should make it clear, I was meaning we would need roughly $27m to add to the $20m we have in the bank, plus some wiggle room for our share to first oil.

So, if we have OM ruled in our favor, we will be more than covered to pay the taxes on the money received and pay off our Italian assets. We would hopefully have enough left over to pay for the running costs of RKH to first oil. If however we only get the €31m we might be cutting it a bit fine and would possibly need to do a small raise.

Of course, if I 3rd player comes onboard, either an investment vehicle or an oily midcap, then I presume that would reduce our share to first oil even further. All will no doubt start to come to a head over the coming months.

LTT

I think once the market digests this, we will trend higher towards the news of first oil on Shenandoah and then on to FID, with possibly a partner/private equity solution coming onboard. If OM comes in, that is a fantastic bonus, but if it doesn't, then our share of equity as Paul says is roughly $27m, it would be such a small dilution, with a share price heading higher, Sam would be able to issue shares to an II to turn it around pretty quickly if he needed to, but they can wait until the last moment for OM to drop.

Interesting the insurance policy wasn't for the whole 65m Euros, it was for 31m Euros, anyone would have thought Sam had a rough idea of how this was going to play out some time ago! But then, that is his job, to protect shareholders interests. Any eventually is covered now to first oil, what a fantastic position to be in.

As for the delay, it stands to reason, even though I had hoped they would make up some time, the 3month delay that happened on Shenandoah has knocked Sea Lion a little further down the line, however, all systems are a go, and once Shenandoah comes online, Navitas will be making a load of cash, even with the currently subdued oil price, it will change Navitas dramatically.

I for one am happy with the Nav Q1 update, a foreign bank getting the $1b in for the project, is brilliant, news along with agreements being signed for the FPSO, the engineering and also suppliers signed off for the production of subsea equipment and subsea piping to connect the FPSO to the production infrastructure.

FID is not longer an IF, it's a WHEN, and odds on it's in the next 3 or 4 months. Exciting times ahead.

LTT

I have to agree, FIG would look pretty stupid hiring a Offshore Environmental Advisor, specifically in offshore hydrocarbons environmental regulation, along with all the other hiring that have been doing of late, for Navitas to say, "Wow, wow, hang on, slow down, maybe we need to rethink this, this oil malarkey is going nowhere, the UK is closing the North Sea and galloping towards net zero, what were we thinking! Pull the plug guys!" LOL

What with all these new hires, the plans for the new dock, the raising of £150m, they must be expecting a bumper Squid catch next year, or maybe the sheep have been genetically modified to grow golden fleeces! Yeah, that must be it, cannot think of any other way they will have loads of cash pouring in over the next few years!

Have a good bank holiday weekend everyone, we are into June the week after.

LTT

Thanks for the vote of support Overt, very kind of you, but I have MD, Grumpy and the Cheesemaster on filter, the sea of green is a beautiful sight. I have had enough of their constant drivel. At least Grumpy was consistently negative, MD chops and changes like the UK weather! It’s very sad to be honest, but then that is human nature, sometimes we cannot take an objective view of our investment due to the very fact we own a share or have sold.

Of course I am positive, it stands to reason because I own RKH shares. If I didn’t, then, why would I even consider posting and telling people to sell, say RKH is going nowhere, they never will produce oil! I would be off and investing elsewhere, I wouldn’t dream of bad mouthing this or any stock. So the motives of those who do, cannot be honorable and could be construed as being downright manipulative. Each to their own I suppose.

LTT

So that is done, now all we are now awaiting for is the Fast tracked Hull engineering Feed to be completed by Ice Marine.

It’s all fake news of course as Topdrive has so clearly pointed out. Can’t wait for Beacon to announce that they have faked the arrival of the FPS and they have started to produce fake oil.

It will prove once and for all, that MD and Grumpy have been right all along! I might take out a short tomorrow!

;-)

LTT

Another great find Mogger, thank you, they are clearly not hanging about!

“FPSO Redeployment Experts

With more existing FPSOs coming off contract, Aragon is leading the way in new applications for existing assets. With 4 FPSO redeployment projects to date, Aragon is a leading expert for FPSO redeployment, and knows how to minimise changes/ maximise re-use.

Existing FPSOs on a new field as quickly as possible.”

The above is from their website.

LTT

Below is the whole text from the 31st Dec 2024 quarterly report;

"On October 15, 2023 a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has been signed with an undisclosed client for the possible charter of the FPSO Aoka Mizu. The MoU comprise a Definition Study and FEED. Furthermore, it sets out the conditions under which a contract can be concluded. The Definition Study has been completed. The FEED is ongoing and expected to result in Final investment decision (FID) mid 2025.

Bluewater is in negotiation with current client for the contract amendment and extension for the FPSO Aoka Mizu on its current location. Both parties have the intention to extend oil production as long as reasonably possible and convenient to both parties to ensure a smooth transition from current client and subsequent new contract party."

So either it's a copy and paste job in the latest Aurelia Energy quarterly report for March 2025; or they haven't negotiated anything since December; or Upstream are quoting old news!

LTT