Member Info for longtermthinker

Good afternoon Ovets, SpaceHoppa,

I the main this is, I think is shows Navitas can deliver, as they have the lions share of Shenandoah, they got the cash and they got a good operator to get the job done. They appear to be wanting to remain operators on Sea Lion, they have the lions share there also and they have Team Ramsey on the job, all they need now is everything signed off with FIG and the money. On a successful first oil on Shenandoah, I cannot see the cash being a problem. IMHO.But we will have to just wait and see.

We are heading up with Navitas, I wouldn't want to be out over the weekend!

;-)

Looking forward to putting names to faces on Thursday and Friday next week. Not expecting any fireworks at the AGM, no news dropping during, but it should be a good turnout this year.

LTT

Yes, Navitas storming ahead again today, up 2.5+% already. It's all looking good for the weekend/next week.

Fingers crossed first oil on Shenandoah goes without a hitch. Then onwards and upwards.

LTT

BrightSpot,

shouldn't that be the Owner, that told the Barman and the Cellarman, OR the Owner whom told One Legged Pete to tell the Barman and the Cellarman?!?!?!?!

I'm afraid I do get a bit confused as to who is who, or do you just switch around who says what without reason? OR am I over analysing things, it doesn't matter who said what, it's just the information is that someone is telling two other folk, that on or around the 21st of June, it will be time to celebrate as first oil should be announced on Shenandoah. I am not sure how it will affect our share price, but is should be quite interesting for Navitas as it ticks a box for them and the cash will start rolling in, plus, and more importantly it shows they can deliver.

All we need then is the tax system and regime from FIG signed off, so they cannot change the goal posts; sign off by FIG on our tax and also on our other various bits and bobs to do with OM, etc; then the funding whip around to start and we are off to the races!

LTT

Goodness me, topping all time highs, not sure if it will hold there by the end of the day, but it is shooting up! +5.24% at the time of this message.

1 Day +5.24%

5 Days +7.87%

1 Month +24.38%

6 Months +54.25%

1 Year +127.88%

Max +443.31%

A similar rise from here to first oil would suit us very nicely indeed.

LTT

Its really thought provoking Croft, which is your point, we shouldn't be afraid of it, we should all be aware of it, but it is a little like "The Monster from the Id", another movie reference! LOL. If we want to create a monster we can do so easily.

I see more and more AI generated content, still images and videos, selling stuff, trying to influence me, (has anyone seen the Ad's even on here!!!!!). I can tell it's AI, but it's only a smidge away from a world where you cannot. Think back to the War of the Worlds radio broadcast from 1938, it was a radio play, but done in a style of an actual newscast, millions of people accepted it as a real event.

Imagine what could be created with AI, and therein lies the rub, AI is not the problem, we are.

LTT

And we have had a nice rise also, seems people are holding on to their shares tightly and thus causing the bid to increase! Still pretty low volume compared to recent rises, but I'm no complaining. I won't have to cash in as many shares to buy SpaceHoppa his pints! LOL

;-)

LTT

Hi Paul,

there is time for a chat before and after the AGM in the cricket club.

Then there is a few who head back into Salibsury to a pub for a chat and some lunch before heading home.

It should be a good one this year with quite a few more folk turning up.

LTT

Mirasol, that may have been true a few years ago, but when was the last time you paid cash for a taxi? Uber, contactless, it's all in the system, there is no escape from tax these days, even if they could get away with it, they still pay tax on purchased goods, eating out, holidays, etc, so it trickles back into the system. Take them out of the loop with no income and everything has a knock on effect. Crazy times!

WOW Navitas is well up today, already almost 3%. Plus around Shenandoah there is a lot of activity going on, the Island Performer (well stimulation vessel) is back beside the Deepwater Atlas having had a little trip to the east and back. Would love to know what it's been doing, but Navitas' unit price going up is a sign it must be getting close, then it's another box ticked.

LTT

P.S. For all those attending the AGM and staying the night before, are we going to meet at the Kings Head Wetherspoons? It's as good a place as anywhere.

It’s all really fascinating. The thing is, it cannot predict human nature, what effect the news will have on FID, will there be a feeding frenzy or a “mehhh” reaction. Will the II’s pile in and force the share price higher; after FID, will someone make a bid?

It’s great to see the numbers and it might come to pass. But so much can happen from now until first oil.

I would have been interested to see if an AI model could have predicted a share price of £5.35 prior to spud on Sea Lion way back when. Could it predict the flash crash in the share price. Of course maybe it’s not designed to do that, to predict the future, it can only work with the data available and the prompts that are put in.

It’s an amazing tool, but it is a concern how many folk it will put out of work unless you’re a builder, plumber, electrician, etc. I even heard about London I think allowing driverless taxis on the road in the not too distant future, how many people will that put out of work.

It’s like the movie, The Man in the White Suit. He went head long into making a material that would never wear out, never get dirty, once made would never fall apart, without considering the ramifications of his actions.

LTT

I have to say, i thoroughly enjoyed ZYX098 and Alma calling out the Cheesemaster last night. Thanks for setting the story straight ZYX098 and Alma, it is most appreciated reading posters comments whom have clear heads and rational, rather than nitpicking here and there, posting things as facts that suit their own ends. It’s most refreshing.

Particularly with first oil about to start on Shenandoah, which Navitas said all along they would have to achieve before FID.

LTT

Well, FIG aren’t hanging about, interviews start next week, I wonder why the rush! If Navitas aren’t going to FID until 2028/29 if ever, why are they bothering?

Boy are FIG going to look stupid taking out a big loan and hiring all those staff and then Navitas just walk away!

LTT

A lot of activity going on at Shenandoah, and around the Deepwater Atlas and the FPS, 7 vessels in total including the Deepwater drill ship.

I wish I was a fly on the wall as to what they are doing. I imagine the Island Performer is doing Well stimulation but at what stage they are at is anyones guess. I suppose, once the Performer has left and the support vessels thin out, then we are possibly on the path to first oil.

It will be down to Beacon to announce such news no doubt, but considering their last official update was the 20th of December, I don't think we should hold our breath.

Hoping Iran and Israel will step back from the brink and things settle over the weekend.

LTT

Hi Mirasol',

"History shows that they fire everyone in exploration & development, pull their investments in everything non-core and sit on their hands for 5 years. This is what did for Premier's grand expansion plans when the POO went south 10 years ago"

I see what you are getting at, but we are not talking about lower oil prices when they do the above, we are talking about US eating into profits of overseas O&G companies through increased ties/tariffs, a bit like the EPL in the UK. The EPL has caused many to reduce investment, or sell of assets in the North Sea, look at Harbour, they have done both.

Even so, I feel Navitas have funding all but sorted, if not how could they sign an MOU on a FPSO and conclude agreements for the manufacturing, with suppliers of subsea equipment and subsea pipelines that will be connected to the FPSO production infrastructure. My money is still on an 11th hour investment vehicle/oil trader coming in for 10-15% thus making the Bank and investors happy. IMHO.

Whether Iran and Israel heading to the knife edge of a full blown conflict will affect things is another matter.

AGM two weeks away, I'm looking forward to it, hopefully I will still be able to make it!

LTT

Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Trumps-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Could-Hurt-His-Own-Energy-Agenda.html

Trump BBB, is going to have consequences if it goes through, just like his tariffs. If big oil starts losing hundreds of millions of dollars in the Gulf, maybe they will look at new low tax regions to invest in!

They had better get a move on though, once FID happens, the farm in will cost a magnitude more!

LTT

Well this is very interesting, particularly when you consider that Israel gets 1% of Navitas’ revenue. Once Sea Lion is up and running they will be getting Falklands Oil money.

Are they going to ban Israeli government officials visiting? Are they going to take over the Israeli embassy or close it down in Buenos Aires?

LTT

You can tell I have a little time on my hands today whilst sat at the computer!

"If the project cost was US$1.5 billion of which debt financing was US$900 million then the Rockhopper equity contribution to the project would be approximately US$70 million, being 1/3rd of the Rockhopper 35% working interest, with the remaining 2/3 of the 35% working interest costs being funded via the post FID loan from Navitas."

I have copied and pasted the middle scenario from the report as it reflects the reality that there will be some over-runs. It says we would need approx $70m.

However this presumes there we get $900m debt financing. Navitas are going for $1B which would mean $500m split with our 1/3rd being $52.5m. But where is the vendor financing? Does that not come into play? Even if we say vendor finance comes in at $250m (could be more or less) that brings our share down to $27m or are my maths totally wrong and I shouldn't add the vendor finance to the project costs?

I suppose what I am trying to illustrate, no doubt poorly, is that when you move the number just a bit, add in vendor financing or have an oil trader or investment vehicle take 10%, the the 1/3rd we need drops dramatically. Of course, I should add it can go the other way should the banks only lend us $600m!

So let's wait for the final numbers to come in before we start talking about being diluted into oblivion.

LTT

"Whilst our balance sheet remains strong, it is possible that the Group will require additional funding in order to take FID. The final amount of that funding will be a function of the outcome of the Ombrina Mare annulment process, final project costs and Sea Lion financing details."

From the annual report, so we know the outcome of OM, but we do not know the final project costs and Sea Lion financing details.

So they will not raise until those are know, and they will have to inform the market that those numbers have come in, what they are and how much they will need to raise to get FID over the line.

In which case, with FID on the cards, the share price should be a lot higher, or at the very least be in a strong position and thus the raise will be oversubscribed. IMHO

LTT

Oscar, but why would RKH do a raise when they don't know how much they will need?

Until the bank has done due diligence (up to 6 months) and have said what amount they will loan; until the vendor finance numbers are put into the mix; until a partner/oil trader says yay or nay, how could they possibly do a raise when they don't know what they will need?

First oil hasn't even happened on Shenandoah yet and might be another couple of weeks away. So, IHMO, there is plenty of time to get the insurance policy in. At which point we will have $50m+. Of course there will be payments to come out, taxes, fees, etc, but even so we will possibly have a base amount of $40m in the war chest.

So with the above in mind, as SpaceHoppa says, we could have a dilution of 2% and 10%. This doesn't take into account if we were to give up 3-5% to a partner, in which case we would be sitting pretty, funded to first oil with cash to spare.

Sam would be crazy to do a raise now before Navitas have said that they need $XXm from RKH to FID. Once Navitas ask for the cash, then FID is all but a done deal and the share price will reflect such. That would be the time to go cap in hand and have a whip around, not before.

LTT

Dear Oscar,

Thank you for your email.

Yes we had submitted the claim.

As the international bank is currently doing its due diligence, which could take up to 6 months, we are in no immediate need to raise funds, we have time to wait for the insurance policy to be paid.

Also, I should add, Navitas are still arranging the financing and we are up in the air as to what funds we will need for FID. Everything will become clearing in the coming months.

Sam.

That is the reply I would imagine, no urgency for any funding, we are still waiting for Shenandoah to come online. No FID until after first oil. IMHO

LTT

"Navitas Petroleum

At a Glance

Established portfolio

Comprised of large offshore projects (development & producing) and onshore producing fields

Creating significant value by investing in opportunistic Mega Projects on the verge of FID

Reducing subsurface risk and shortening time to first oil

Proven success in securing and raising financing

Since its inception in 2017, Navitas has raised over $3B of equity and debt"

If ever there was a reason to be confident, it's all there on the first page, can you imagine what their Pie chart would look like fi they decided to not go ahead with Sea Lion?

Also this bit;

"Agreements were concluded with suppliers, for the manufacturing of subsea equipment and subsea pipelines that will be connected to the FPSO production infrastructure"

It all go IMHO, baring a black swan event! They need to make this happen otherwise Gideon would look foolish.

Everything is coming together nicely.

LTT