Member Info for longtermthinker

JEBR,

That is a great point, Sam could raise for FID, but add in some warrants at say 75p a share or higher that could fund RKH share of a few exploration/appraisals on Isobel. Then they are covered for any eventuality.

Let’s face it, the last raise and warrants issue was a great success, why not do the same again.

LTT

Don’t forget the poison pills, the loans evaporate should anyone buyout RKH, so someone would have pay whatever they are willing to pay for RKH, which would be around £400m PLUS their share of Sea Lion upfront. Which rules out a lot of mid caps, and bigger players would only think to take out once oil is pumping!

Also on the Isobel front, even though they would have to pay back from 85% of revenue, the share price would be much higher and the options to fund drilling on Isobel if Navitas wanted to go for it would be extensive. IMHO

LTT

I asked GTPChat how many shares had exchanged hands since December and I was very surprised at the result;

December 2024 68 M

January 2025 126 M

February 50 M

March 56 M

April 77 M

May 39 M

June 61 M

Total 477 million

👉 Between December 1, 2024 and June 1, 2025, approximately 477 million shares of RKH were traded.

I am unsure how accurate it is, it should be pretty good as it's all just math, but still interesting. It sort of explains why we are heading higher on lower and lower volume, it's because the weaker holders have since long gone and mostly the die hards are left, the kind of folk who say, "If you want my shares, you'll have to pry them from my cold dead hands!"

However, I don't recommend such a course of action!

;-)

I would wait until Sam does a raise and hopefully adds on a few cheeky warrants and then fill your boots, either that or just pay the ASK and be done with it! Of late, despite a few sets backs, it seems the share price is only going one way.

Who would want to be out over the weekend!

LTT

Mirasol,

I'd like to think drilling and appraising has moved on a bit in the past 25 years, with regards to Durward & Daultless, but you are right to offer an air of caution.

Now if only we had Dave overseeing the drilling, I'd be even more confident, but at least with 20 exploration and appraisal wells drilling on Sea Lion to date, they will have a pretty good idea of what they are getting into. I think Sam said by the end of the first or second campaign they were drilling to target depth in around 28-30 days. Of course the development drilling will take a good bit longer due to drilling laterals into the sweet spots.

Seems like Dave is keeping an eye on Sea Lion!

https://www.bodecott.com/news/sea-lion-development

LTT

Yes Much, with the impending FID, even though it's possibly 3 or 4 months away, it is too tempting and thus the bid is having to going higher to tempt folk to let go, but more and more folk are holding on more tightly. It can therefore only go one way.

LTT

Ralph,

I wasn't implying there would be a dramatic effect, so I'm sorry if I caused any confusion.

I was just saying that after folk were posting AI research about the underperformance of oil production upon start up, I thought I would point out that the headline production rate was 100k per day, NOT the 120k people were talking about. Thus nothing to be concerned about if the headline number comes in at an initial 90k per day. People might have got spooked if it was 90k per day and they had an expectation of 120k+ per day.

I personally believe there will be no impact on Sea Lion FID unless of course start up of production is pushed back further due to issues, as Navitas have said there will be no FID on Sea Lion until Shenandoah is in production.

As for Sea Lion development, I cannot see any issues with that, Sea Lion has had so many holes poked in it, there should be no surprises and the development should be straight forward. I just hope during a bit of down time to review the development well data, they head down to Isobel and poke a well in the centre of her to see what's what. Then they can work up the Next, Next big thing, whilst cracking on with Sea Lion.

LTT

Morning Mirasol, re your post yesterday, as you say, the Lancaster field must be coming to end of life now, the water cut must be much higher and with lower oil prices (until recently) they must be thinking to call it a day.

Sept/Oct is my guess, around the time we are expecting FID funnily enough.

LTT

“Since its final investment decision (FID) in August 2021, the Shenandoah project initial development phase has progressed to imminent first oil mid-year 2025. The development is anchored by a floating production system (FPS) initially designed to be capable of producing and exporting approximately 100,000 BOPD. In 2024, the FPS was expanded to 120,000 BOPD to enable the addition of the Monument project subsea tieback.”

Just thought I would post this from the Navitas website, as there has been talk of Beacon delivering 120k per day, and anything short of that number would jeopardise Sea Lion FID.

So we should expect, after an initial slow start, a ramp up to around 100k per day, a good round number, the 120-140k per day was to include Monument and Phase 2 and possibly Shenandoah South. So 120k would not be hit until 2026-2027.

A fair bit of activity is going on around the FPS and the Deepwater Atlas. It does make me understand however why Beacon and Navitas keep quiet. As it stands first oil will come when it’s good a ready, no hard deadlines set in stone.

Hopefully everything it’s going smoothly and the first we hear will be, “First oil started on the 1st of July at an initial production rate of 40k per day, we have since ramped up production to our headline rate of 100k per day, with an expectation to increase further due to higher flow rates than expected.”

;-)

LTT

Yeah, sorry about that, I just presumed everyone knew the Aoka was on hire to Prax, they didn't own it!

I'll get my coat!

;-)

LTT

Hi Mirasol,

I was aware that to FPSO was rented, so wasn't worried about the Aoka being seized or anything like that.

I was more wondering if it would be released sooner as the liquidation sets in, suppose they would keep it pumping as long as possible as an income stream, but could the production arm be liable for the refineries debts? Or is it a separate entity that is protected?

LTT

Just checked out Prax website and I’m a little confused! Are the receivers taking over the whole Prax group, upstream, downstream, refining, delivery etc? Or is it just the refinery?

It seems the refinery owes a lot of tax, so can they go after other parts of the business to get this or are they ring fenced and classed as separate entities? Will the upstream be affected?

If I was Bluewater, I’d be wanting to get the Aoka Mizu out of there sharpish, I hope they are getting paid per cargo of offloaded oil, as they could be left high and dry with this Prax fiasco.

LTT

In the investors presentation in March, Navitas said the first two wells had been flow tested and off loaded to a tanker and the flow had exceeded expectations. This is a high pressure development and I would presume if they expected poor flow they wouldn't had sanctioned Phase 2 and be preparing to sanction Shenandoah South. Surely they would have held off until they had flowed Shenandoah for at least 6 months if they had concernes before committing to an expensive drill contract, plus everything else. IMHO

Of course I could be wrong, but we will know soon enough. Fingers crossed the flow rates are on the money.

LTT

I thought £1+ on FID was a dream world, that I was living in cloud cuckoo land 🤪 but as we head up further and further on no real news, I’m thinking my dream just might become a reality!

Fingers crossed 🤞

LTT

They just paid 62p for 200k 😳

Of course they could be wrong, and we could plummet, but is seems more likely folk are taking positions in readiness for first oil on Shenandoah and then on to FID.

LTT

🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂

No I’m MD, Falklands Investors AND Grim, and so is SpaceHoppa!

🤣

LTT

The thought had crossed my mind Bigred7, but it would be political suicide, Reform and the Conservatives would have field day!

I think we are safe for now. But cannot understand this rise, disconnected from both Navitas and Borders. Is the Falklands story filtering out to a wider audience, whom are happy to get onboard at 50p+ wanting to see £1+ on FID and then a steady rise up to first oil?

Is the above happening because long term share holders are holding on tighter as the share price goes higher, not just hoping to break even, but seeing the reality of first oil or even a buyout at multiples of today’s share price!

It’s not like the build up to drilling, when the excitement builds and they you would start selling as it rose into the drill, just in case you got an oil to water RNS! This is buying into a rise that once FID is done, will keep on rising, as the FPSO sails for refit; as the rig gets booked for its 5+ year campaign; as it sails down and starts drilling; as the well heads and spaghetti get delivered and then when first oil flows. Even then, that will be just the start of a new oil province with Isobel yet to come.

So, maybe that’s why the bid is rising, because many folk are keeping a tight grip.

LTT

Ralph, its a chicken and egg situation, they need the cash in the bank before they can FID, so that is can be used before they start drawing in the loans, therefore they need approx $800m to be in account, roughly $705m from Navitas and $95m from RKH before they can FID.

Maybe/hopefully Sam will hold off with this rising share price and will get the numbers in from Navitas, then with the Banks due diligence is complete they can have the cash and plan for FID. Then Sam comes to raise with a much higher price because the raise is to get FID over the line.

LTT

Navitas is heading up a little also, but we seem in disconnected from them at the minute. Also Borders is not heading up either, so this is something unique to us.

I cannot imagine Sam going for a sneaky raise while the share price is rising, as the final numbers cash wise as still up in the air, he said at the AGM there were still moving parts to nail down just yet. However it cannot be a partner as surely that is Navitas' business and they are in the drivers seat.

A relief rally might explain this a little, knowing that the insurance is coming in and we have a much smaller raise needed going forward, but once that was know and in the public domain, why no sell off by those who bought a lot lower one the AGM drop, with the knowledge of the insurance being in the bag?

Look, I'm not complaining, but I would like to know what's going on.

LTT

Thanks JEBR, well 2 years is better than how long has it been, 7+!?!?!?!?!?!?

It should be on the lower end of the scale as all the arguments have been submitted previously. Of course it's still a side show and we will possibly be producing oil long before we get any OM cash, but still, ROI shouldn't be able to get away with it.

Good on Sam and the folk stumping up the cash to have another go, I hope they come to a bigger number of 250m, plus insurance, just to give ROI an extra kicking! LOL.

No I'm not vindictive at all!

;-)

LTT