Member Info for longtermthinker

I also want to pick up an a couple of points, and sorry if they have been mentioned already.

Firstly, the mention of a take out with a low ball offer, Sam said he couldn't do anything about a low ball offer, but there are so many poison pills, he said it was incredibly unlikely before FID and post FID any buyer would among other things lose the loans, they would evaporate, as he put it, as the loans are tied to RKH, but with the usual caveat, never say never!

Secondly, The cash, lets say it is $95m for our share of Sea Lion, will have to be placed into a pot, with Navitas' other two thirds they are loaning us, plus their own share PROIR to FID. This actually links into something Alma said about the banks offering a draw down facility, they only dip into it when they need to, so the development money comes out of the Navitas/RKH pot first, then they start to draw from the banks, not the other way around.

Thanks Much and Paul, that puts my mind at ease a little, that RKH won't raise until they know what they need for the bak/Navitas and then FID will be a forgone conclusion. Maybe Sam will add in some sneaky little warrants, around 10-15% higher than the raise price for us long suffering to partake again.

All in all a great AGM, next year, prior, Sam will turn to Simon and say, "We're gunna need a bigger boat!".

LTT

"The group also has oilfield investments in Shetland and owns roughly 200 petrol stations in the UK under the Breeze and Harvest Energy brands, but these are outside the insolvency process."

then lower in the article it says;

"Joint administrator Clare Boardman, of Teneo, said that all options would be considered, including a sale of Prax’s upstream business and retail operations in the UK and Europe, all of which remain outside insolvency."

I found the above also in the Guardian, it's a little confusing, but it would seem it's all about the Lindsey Refinery rather than the larger group. As will all such situations, the rest of the group I would imagine is insulated for the losses of one part, but I could be wrong. I cannot imagine they would get much from selling the Upstream part as that is coming to end of life, particularly with the water cut and the oil price. Bluewater must be chomping at the bit for Navitas to fire the starters pistol and get the Aoka released and heading for a refit. So the first thing will be to go cap in hand to UKGov, see if they will bail them out, although if Ed get's his way, he will be happy to see it go under!

LTT

Morning Much,

So did you get the impression that FIG tax sign off; Bank due diligence and Navitas knowing what cash they have and what they will need will be lined up before RKH go for a fundraising? Sam wouldn’t do a quick raise on the back of positive insurance news or Shenandoah first oil?

Regards LTT

P.S. By the way were you the person in the sharp suit whom had a chat with Sam in a corner after the AGM?

I think they may be jumping the gun a little, Shenandoah was meant to produce approx 120k per day, then Phase2 bumps that up to 140k per day. Phase 2 has been sanctioned and they plan to start drilling later this year. Then Shenandoah South is to be sanctioned anytime soon that will add further production.

That being said, there was mention in an investors presentation by Navitas, than the production tests were higher from the first two wells than they imagined, which could mean production per well was hitting approximately 35k per day, rather than the 30k they originally planned for, so it is possible.

Although saying that, wouldn’t they start production at a lower rate and ramp it up over the coming months rather than open the taps fully from the start!

Either way, it seems imminent, they could announce tomorrow or Monday to get first oil over the line in the first half of 2025. I would imagine Navitas will be chomping at the bit to get this out into the open, even though Beacon is not very vocal.

LTT

R1234,

From memory, last time, I applied for warrants on the shares I bought within my ISA, however by the end of the month, the warrants once issued were transferred out of my ISA to my general trading account, and that was where they sat until I bought them, then I sold and re bought into my ISA, bit of a convoluted exercise, but that was the only way I could do it.

LTT

I Paul,

I got that impression too, they are laser focussed on Sea Lion and getting to FID, they are not even thinking about Isobel or Elaine, never mind Borders and RKH acreage next door in the Southern Basin. Sam agreed that a rising tide lifts all boats, and Harry is riding on our coat tails, and may get someone on the hook. But as for even thinking about drilling down there, that will be after first oil on Sea Lion.

So what have we to look forward to? Shenandoah first oil; RNS (possibly the week after next) saying the insurance is paying out; 40 business days( I think is was business days) after that, the money comes into our account, again it will warrant an RNS.

Things that could blindside us; announcing that the OM funder is back onboard and they are resubmitting the OM claim; word from Navitas that they have confirmed the number to get FID over the line; RNS announcing an investors day in the city in preparation (nothing was mentioned about that, but I imagine it would happen, I’d want the board to shout it from the rooftops if they are raising to get FID over the line!).

Everything else has been more than covered. The future although it will most likely require some dilution, is bright, Sam and co. seemed happy, positive and animated about the future, for what it’s worth, more so than at and previous AGM I have attended.

LTT

P.S. Prior to the AGM, Table 84 was the place to be. It was great to chat with fellow investors before, during and after the AGM. Putting monikers to faces was fun, and hearing some of the stories behind them. If anyone is interested I paid my debt to SpaceHoppa, two Wetherspoons pints that were ridiculously cheap, Space accepted the pints and then magnanimously gave one of them back to me 🥲.

BrightSpot,

I cannot see them announcing anything until Sunday/Monday at the earliest as it’s too close to the Jewish Sabbath. That is if they want to announce first oil before Q2 is finished.

Still I would be happy to be proved wrong.

LTT

Sounds good to me, I’ll be the square eyed, hunchback, after 15+ years of following RKH! LOL

😉

LTT

The war between Iran and Israel might have had an effect also! On the big drop, Delek and Newmed also were hit pretty hard along with much of the Tel Aviv stock market. Still lots of shares seem to be turning it around today.

I wonder when and how Beacon will announce first oil? Will they allow Navitas to announce first as they will be effected more than Beacon whom are in private hands. Beacon seem to be very tight on the news front.

LTT

Yes EG777,

They have plenty of parking, your see the cars lined up when you arrive. Sounds like there will be quite a turnout.

LTT

Https://maps.app.goo.gl/4D7pCQrMUBLUpkEs5?g_st=ic

Sorry for some reason the link was to the physio! Same building apparently, but here is another link as to not to confuse.

LTT

Https://maps.app.goo.gl/jocaqnTVwKAnRVjq7?g_st=ic

Above is a Google maps link, if you are staying in town, you’ll either need a taxi or expect a 30min walk. Not too bad if it’s a nice day.

LTT

Paul,

I interpreted that Isobel and Elaine were not even on the map in the June 2025 map on page 4, the CDA Phase 1 and CDA Phase 2 areas were covering only Zebedee. The drill centre on Isobel and Elaine would be much further south and more on the East side where the bulk of the oil and fans overlap. (see page 6 of the 2017 pdf).

I could be wrong and I am no drill engineer so don't take my word on it, but just looking at the two pages side by side, implies to me at least that Isobel and Elaine are not in the Central area.

Looks like there are some more questions to ask at the AGM.

LTT

Https://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/June-2025-corporate-update-Vf.pdf

https://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Investor-Presentation-Oil-Capital-September-2017.pdf

Let me know if I am just seeing stuff that isn't there or I'm trying to see what I want to see!

LTT

I have been having a look through recent and old reports and presentations and I don't think, Isobel and Elaine are included in the revised numbers on RKH and Navitas' resource reports.

Please bear with me. (I have too much time on my hands of late!). The reasons I will set out below.

If we look at the most recent corporate update by RKH dated June 2025 you will see the Sea Lion development with 3 Northern phases and 2 Central pages on page 4. At first glance you would think that the 2 central phases were Isobel and Elaine coming into the mix.

However, firstly how could they attribute numbers to Isobel and Elaine when the programme was curtailed due to rig performance issues, and secondly, if you look at the Oil Capital Presentation from Sept 2017 pages 7, 8 and 10, you can see that on page 8 & 10, resources where already at around 900m barrels classified as C3, but on the graph to the right on page 10, it shows Isobel and Elaine offer trumendous further upside.

And finally if you look at page 7 on the Sept 2017 presentation and compare it with RKH' most recent June 5th 2025, page 4, you can see they are very similar, both diagrams, even not to scale, do not reach down to Isobel and Elaine, and thus I conclude that the central phases are incorporating Zebedee into the mix and not Isobel and Elaine as first thought.

So in conclusion, I think that AI, might not be on the money! IMHO. Have both Navitas and RKH's resource reports actually incorporated Isobel and Elaine into the mix, despite having only 2 wells drilled on the Isobel/Elaine complex and one of them not completed due to rig issue? Or are they not in the mix and it's all still to play for?

I put the question out there to the BB to see what others make of it.

Of course I could be wrong and clutching at straws, but it might be a good question for the AGM.

LTT

Crazy! How can a ceasefire cause such a negative reaction! Ok, maybe for the oil price, but the sell off is ridiculous.

Also how can this last. Trump is eyeing the Noble Peace Prize no doubt, but it all seems a bit strange if you ask me.

Isreal went into Iran to destroy their Nuclear programme, but they couldn’t do it without the US’ bunker buster bombs. They get the US involved, they drop them on the 3 sites and now there is a ceasefire!!!!!

So either Iran had no capability to enrich in the first place and Isreal just wanted to put them in their place OR Isreal will have to go in again to make sure. After all, they don’t know where the 60% enriched Uranium is, they don’t know if they have other secret facilities for enrichment elsewhere, plus if Iran were not making a bomb before, they might be rushing to do it now and they have been incentivised to do it, to stop Isreal taking a pop at them whenever they feel like it!

The best scenario for all is a regime change, but will it happen now the US and Israel are backing off!

LTT

Sorry for the off topic, but not much else to talk about today whilst we wait for first oil on Shenandoah and the AGM.

The Islander Performer Well stimulation vessel has left the area. It has been replaced by the Stim Star III another well stimulation vessel and the Southern Star a supply vessel which are currently alongside the Deepwater Atlas.

This week would be a good time to open the taps on Shenandoah will oil heading possibly a lot higher. Although, I would prefer that the US, Israel and Iran calm it all down and step back from the abyss.

LTT

But then, wouldn’t China start bidding for supplies from eslewhere if the Straits where closed or caused restricted supply? Cannot imagine China taking it on the chin, the oil traders would have a field day.

LTT

“Banks Drop the Climate Pretense and Follow the Money

By Julianne Geiger - Jun 21, 2025, 6:00 PM CDT

Banks pumped $869B into fossil fuels in 2024.

Fossil fuels remain financially attractive, offering stable returns compared to the cost, policy, and supply chain hurdles facing clean tech investments.

U.S. giants like JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup are leading the charge, signaling a strategic shift from ESG promises to profitability.“

From oilprice, seems like banks are seeing sense, that fossil fuels are going to be around for sometime fueling the transition, so why not make profit from it! Are we entering a perfect storm to have a scramble to join the party.

LTT

"Namibia, one of the latest exploration hotspots in the world, is weighing potential further incentives and financing options to offer to international majors preparing plans for oil production offshore the African country."

The above is from OilPrice, I wonder if the reason FIG are taking so long to sign off on the tax regime/confirmation they won't move the goal posts once oil starts flowing, is because they are planning some tax breaks/reduced royalties for a couple of years after first oil, whilst is ramps up, to incentivise Navitas to get FID over the line. If ever there was a location that could do with some incentive, the Falklands would be it for sure.

LTT